Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for MUR in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every MUR insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MUR in Gekko
NYSE: MUR
Murphy Oil (MUR) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Sep 28 close
$36.65+0.32 (+0.9%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryMurphy Oil's week has been shaped mainly by an analyst target cut, with Argus lowering its price target to $34.00 while the stock traded near $36.84. A bond profile note on the MUR.GA issue, detailing its 7.05% coupon and semi-annual schedule through May 2029, also circulated but concerns financing terms rather than operations. Coverage also referenced the company's exploration and production business across onshore and offshore operations, without new operational updates this week.
Shares closed at $36.65, up 0.9%, sitting between the 50-day average of $36.91 and the 200-day average of $35.85, a mixed trend signal. The GekkoIndex reads 60, placing MUR in the Accumulation zone. Price stands 5.6% above Gekko Fair Value of $34.71, a gap that counts as a headwind by the checklist. One-year return sits at 25.7%, with a three-month gain of 8.1% and a six-month decline of 13%.
The next earnings date falls on 4 November 2026, 36 days out and beyond a typical 20-trading-day hold; the prior report on 5 August 2026 beat estimates ($1.55 versus $1.51) but triggered a -13.9% reaction. No insider, Congress or unusual options activity appears in their respective windows. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged +8% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them, a mixed pattern worth noting alongside the consensus target of $39.93 from 12 covering firms.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.
Murphy Oil price vs fair value
Close $36.65200-day averageGekko Fair Value $34.71
Murphy Oil quick facts
- Market cap
- $5.25B
- P/E ratio
- 17.9
- Forward P/E
- 13.4
- EPS, TTM
- $2.09
- Revenue, TTM
- $2.99B
- Profit margin
- 9.8%
- Dividend yield
- 3.73%
- Beta
- 0.49
- Volume
- 1.50M avg 1.65M
- 1-year return
- +25.7%
- Typical daily move
- ±3.8%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±7.7%
- 50-day average
- $36.91
- 200-day average
- $35.85
- Next earnings
- Nov 4
- Shares outstanding
- 143.4M
Murphy Oil swing-trade checklist
Murphy Oil scores 2 supportive, 2 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
2 supportive2 mixed1 headwind
- Trendmixed
Averages disagree
Close $36.65 sits between the 50-day ($36.91) and 200-day ($35.85) averages, or the averages disagree.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
60, Accumulation
Reading 60 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valueheadwind
5.6% above
Price is 5.6% above Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% above).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 36 days
Next report Nov 4, 2026, 36 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitymixed
+8.0% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +8% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Murphy Oil stock chart and price history
Murphy Oil closed at $36.65 on Sep 28, 2026, +25.7% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $26.49 to $43.34.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- +1.9%
- 3 months
- +8.1%
- 6 months
- −13.0%
- 1 year
- +25.7%
The full MUR chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open MUR in Gekko
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Murphy Oil GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Murphy Oil’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 60, in the Accumulation zone, down 0.8 points over five sessions.
60Accumulation
Down 0.8 points over five sessions.
Reading for Sep 28, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 47 | +2.4% | +3.0% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 223 | +0.2% | +0.9% | ||
| Neutral | 381 | −0.1% | −0.2% | ||
| Distribution | 19 | −0.4% | +1.9% | ||
| Selling | 2 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average MUR share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the MUR price, zone by zone.Track MUR in Gekko
Is Murphy Oil stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Murphy Oil trades 5.6% above Gekko Fair Value of $34.71, so the shares are overvalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Murphy Oil shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$34.71
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026
5.6% Overvalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open MUR in Gekko
Murphy Oil insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Murphy Oil, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in MUR were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for MUR, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MUR in Gekko
Buybacks
Murphy Oil has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $777K
- As a share of market cap
- 0.01%
From company filings.
Murphy Oil earnings: next date and track record
Murphy Oil reports on Nov 4, 2026 (36 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 4, 2026
36 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.22
- Revenue estimate
- $725.0M
7 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±5.7%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Aug 5, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Murphy's Q2 2026 earnings call focused on recent exploration results, capital allocation decisions, and the company's development and appraisal plans. Management highlighted the Bubale discovery in Côte d'Ivoire as the quarter's most important development and explained their staged, data-driven 18–24 month appraisal plan (Bubale West-1X spud in July). They discussed a disappointing dry hole (HSV-4) in Vietnam but emphasized that the overall Hai Su Vang (HSV) program remains a material, economically attractive discovery with a targeted FID in Q4 2027. Management announced they are accelerating Eagle Ford activity ($70 million acceleration) to generate additional free cash flow to help fund appraisal and development activity. They reiterated commitment to dividend policy and balance sheet discipline while acknowledging possible periods of negative free cash flow depending on spending and timing of first oil from new projects. Operational detail included Lac Da Vang first oil expected in Q4 2026 with net production expected to reach 5,000–9,000 bpd by end-2027 and ultimately 10,000–15,000 bpd with further development. Management also discussed exploration plans across West and North Africa and modest near-term spending there while maturing prospects for potential drilling in later years.
- Guidance
- • Lac Da Vang first oil: Q4 2026. • Lac Da Vang net production by end-2027: ~5,000–9,000 bpd; longer-term ramp to ~10,000–15,000 bpd by 2028–2029. • Target FID for Hai Su Vang (HSV) development: Q4 2027 (subject to appraisal and approvals). • Bubale appraisal program: staged over next 18–24 months; Bubale West-1X spud July. • Current-year (2026) CapEx: company indicated increased spending (discussed $1.5–$1.6B accrued CapEx reference). • Estimated dry-hole cost for Bubale West-1X: ~$90 million (up from prior $65 million estimate). • Management expects 2027 CapEx to be higher than recent years (above prior typical $1.2–$1.3B range) but gave no firm 2027 number; spending will be materially driven by appraisal results.
- Risks flagged
- • Exploration/appraisal risk: HSV-4 dry hole and variable reservoir quality at HSV and uncertainty in Bubale’s scale and continuity until appraisal wells are completed. • Higher-than-expected well costs: Bubale West-1X dry-hole cost estimate increased from $65M to $90M. • Capital intensity and timing risk: Potential for materially higher CapEx in 2027 depending on appraisal results and development decisions; possible periods of negative free cash flow. • Commodity price sensitivity: Management noted they would pare back activity if oil prices fell significantly (example: below $50/bbl). • Execution/timeline risk: 18–24 month appraisal program for Bubale and the time required to move from discovery to FID introduce timing uncertainty. • Frontier exploration risk in new African blocks; many prospects are early-stage and could require significant capital if successful.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | $1.55 est $1.51 | $928.3M est $888.5M | −13.9% |
| May 6, 2026 | $0.32 est $0.31 | $733.6M est $703.0M | −8.2% |
| Jan 28, 2026 | $0.14 est −$0.03 | $624.6M est $633.7M | −2.3% |
| Nov 5, 2025 | $0.41 est $0.17 | $721.0M est $675.2M | +4.4% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | $0.27 est $0.21 | $683.1M est $667.0M | −4.2% |
| May 7, 2025 | $0.56 est $0.48 | $672.7M est $668.9M | +1.8% |
| Jan 30, 2025 | $0.35 est $0.56 | $671.0M est $725.2M | −8.7% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | $0.74 est $0.68 | $753.2M est $759.7M | +2.3% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Murphy Oil stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Murphy Oil is $39.93, +8.9% from the last close, from 12 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$39.93consensus 12-month target, +8.9% from the last close
Now $36.65Avg $39.93
Low $34High $47
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 12 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15 | KeyBanc | $47 | +28.2% |
| Sep 14 | Wells Fargo | $42 | +14.6% |
| Sep 11 | Barclays | $34 | −7.2% |
| Sep 11 | Evercore ISI | $42 | +14.6% |
| Sep 10 | BMO Capital | $39 | +6.4% |
+0.9%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+8.0%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.8%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Murphy Oil seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, Murphy Oil averaged +8.0% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +7.0% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +9.7% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +8.2% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +8.0% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +8.7% | 2 of 5 |
For scale, MUR’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 7.7%.
Murphy Oil market cap and key statistics
Murphy Oil’s market cap is $5.25B, with a P/E ratio of 17.9 and revenue of $2.99B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $5.25B
- P/E ratio
- 17.9
- Forward P/E
- 13.4
- EPS, TTM
- $2.09
- Gekko Fair Value
- $34.71
Trading
- Volume
- 1.50M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 1.65M
- 52-week high
- $43.34
- 52-week low
- $26.49
- Shares outstanding
- 143.4M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $2.99B
- Profit margin
- 9.8%
- Return on equity
- 6.5%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +917.0%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.49
- Typical daily move
- ±3.8%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±7.7%
- Dividend yield
- 3.73%
Murphy Oil stock news this week
Coverage of Murphy Oil this week reads neutral: 0 positive, 2 neutral and 1 negative headlines.
- MUR.GA Bond Profile: Coupon and RedemptionTradingView, Sep 25
- Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) Stock ForecastsYahoo! Finance Canada, Sep 24
- Murphy Oil Corporation (MUQ.F) Stock Price, News, Quote & HistoryYahoo! Finance Canada, Sep 21
Murphy Oil peers
Murphy Oil’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| COPConocoPhillips | Accumulation | 41.2% below |
| FANGDiamondback Energy | Accumulation | 6.0% above |
| ARAntero Resources | Accumulation | 28.4% below |
| RRCRange Resources | Accumulation | 7.3% below |
| SMSM Energy | Accumulation | 5.2% above |
| MGYMagnolia Oil & Gas | Accumulation | 30.8% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Murphy Oil stock FAQ
What is Murphy Oil’s market cap?
Murphy Oil’s market cap is $5.25B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $36.65, with 143.4M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 17.9.
What is the Murphy Oil stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Murphy Oil is $39.93, +8.9% from the last close. Of the 12 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 1 rate it a buy, 9 a hold and 2 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Murphy Oil stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Murphy Oil is overvalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $36.65 is 5.6% above Gekko Fair Value of $34.71. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Murphy Oil report earnings next?
Murphy Oil is expected to report on Nov 4, 2026 (36 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.22 per share on revenue of $725.0M. Murphy Oil beat the earnings estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports, moving 5.7% on average across the report.
What is Murphy Oil’s 52-week high and low?
Murphy Oil’s 52-week high is $43.34 and its 52-week low is $26.49; it closed at $36.65 on Sep 28, 2026, +25.7% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $51.29 on Nov 14, 2022.
Is Murphy Oil stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex and earnings risk), 2 as mixed (trend and seasonality) and 1 as a headwind (fair value). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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