NYSE: SM

SM Energy (SM) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$33.55−0.36 (−1.1%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

SM Energy has declined across several sessions this week, with shares falling from $34.89 on 22 September to $33.55 by 28 September, a move described as steeper than the broader market. Coverage has repeatedly flagged the stock as potentially undervalued relative to a GF Value estimate near $51, even as commentary noted weak momentum, a "possible value trap" label, and insider selling activity alongside otherwise strong growth and valuation scores. The declines have come without a single dominant catalyst, reflecting a mix of value-versus-momentum debate rather than one specific event.

SM last closed at $33.55, down 1.1% on the day, sitting between its 50-day average of $34.64 and 200-day average of $28.07, with a one-month return of -8.9% against a three-month gain of 28.3%. The GekkoIndex reads 63.7, placing SM in the Accumulation zone, up 5 points recently. The current price sits 5.2% above the Gekko Fair Value of $31.89.

Earnings are scheduled for 2 November, 34 days out, placing the report outside a typical 20-trading-day window. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the recent windows. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 6.6% gain over five years, positive in four of those years. Analyst coverage from 14 firms shows 10 buy ratings, with a consensus target of $43.18, implying 28.7% upside per that consensus.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

SM Energy price vs fair value

$33.55$31.89Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $33.55200-day averageGekko Fair Value $31.89

SM Energy quick facts

Market cap
$8.04B
P/E ratio
6.1
Forward P/E
4.4
EPS, TTM
$5.77
Revenue, TTM
$4.96B
Profit margin
20.2%
Dividend yield
2.39%
Beta
0.75
Volume
3.68M avg 4.22M
1-year return
+22.8%
Typical daily move
±4.7%
Typical 20-day move
±9.4%
50-day average
$34.64
200-day average
$28.07
Next earnings
Nov 2
Shares outstanding
237.9M
52-week range
$17.45$41.56

SM Energy swing-trade checklist

SM Energy scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive1 mixed1 headwind

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $33.55 sits between the 50-day ($34.64) and 200-day ($28.07) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    63.7, Accumulation

    Reading 63.7 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valueheadwind

    5.2% above

    Price is 5.2% above Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% above).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 34 days

    Next report Nov 2, 2026, 34 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +6.6% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +6.6% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

SM Energy stock chart and price history

SM Energy closed at $33.55 on Sep 28, 2026, +22.8% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $17.45 to $41.56.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
SM Energy share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$20$25$30$40NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep33.55

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−8.9%
3 months
+28.3%
6 months
+2.5%
1 year
+22.8%
The full SM chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open SM in Gekko

Follow SM Energy through every session

Put SM on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

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About SM Energy

SM Energy focuses on finding, developing, acquiring, and producing oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids, with all of its operations located in Texas. It is known for its holdings in the Midland Basin and South Texas, where it works both oil and gas wells as part of its production base.

The company operates as an independent producer, meaning its business centers on extracting and selling hydrocarbons rather than refining or marketing them further downstream. Its output comes from a mix of active oil and gas wells concentrated in its core Texas operating areas, supporting its estimated proved reserves measured in barrels of oil equivalent.

SM Energy traces its history back to 1908 and took on its present name in May 2010, having previously operated as St. Mary Land & Exploration Company. It is headquartered in Denver, Colorado, and its shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker SM.

Listed
NYSE
Sector
Energy minerals
Industry
Oil & gas production
Website
sm-energy.com

SM Energy GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

SM Energy’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 63.7, in the Accumulation zone, up 5 points over five sessions.

010063.7Accumulation

Up 5 points over five sessions, from the Neutral zone.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying38+1.2%+2.2%+0.6%−6.2%
Accumulation (current zone)219+0.4%+0.2%−0.7%+1.9%
Neutral3690.0%+0.3%+1.2%−0.7%
Distribution34+0.4%+1.8%+5.7%+11.9%
Selling12+1.4%+1.7%+10.7%+39.2%

Average SM share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the SM price, zone by zone.Track SM in Gekko

Is SM Energy stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

SM Energy trades 5.2% above Gekko Fair Value of $31.89, so the shares are overvalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what SM Energy shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$31.89

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026

5.2% Overvalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open SM in Gekko

SM Energy insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for SM Energy, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for SM in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every SM insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open SM in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in SM were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for SM, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open SM in Gekko

Buybacks

SM Energy has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$87.00M
As a share of market cap
1.08%

From company filings.

SM Energy earnings: next date and track record

SM Energy reports on Nov 2, 2026 (34 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports.

5 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±5.2%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+6.4%May ’24+11.2%Aug ’24−5.2%Oct ’24−3.9%Feb ’25+1.8%Apr ’25−2.0%Aug ’25−10.5%Nov ’25−1.0%Apr ’26

Last earnings call, Apr 23, 2026 AI summary

What they said
SM Energy delivered record operating cash flow, adjusted EBITDAX, production and oil volumes in 2025, with oil representing 53% of total production. The company reduced net debt by $437 million to approximately 1x leverage and returned $104 million to stockholders through dividends and buybacks. SM announced a merger with Civitas targeting $200-300 million in synergies, with $185 million already actioned. The company also announced the sale of South Texas natural gas assets for $950 million expected to close in Q2 2026.
Guidance
2026 capital investments planned at $2.65-2.85 billion, about 14% lower than pro forma 2025. Second half 2026 production expected at 420,000-430,000 BOE per day at 55% oil. Activity reset to 11 rigs from 14 pro forma average.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Apr 23, 2026$0.00
est $0.85
−100.0%$705.0M
est $764.6M
−7.8%−1.0%
Nov 3, 2025$1.33
est $1.26
+5.6%$811.0M
est $833.7M
−2.7%−10.5%
Aug 1, 2025$1.76
est $1.27
+38.6%$785.1M
est $824.2M
−4.7%−2.0%
Apr 30, 2025$1.76
est $2.03
−13.3%$839.6M
est $778.9M
+7.8%+1.8%
Feb 19, 2025$1.91
est $1.91
−0.1%$835.9M
est $849.4M
−1.6%−3.9%
Oct 31, 2024$1.62
est $1.53
+5.9%$642.4M
est $862.4M
−25.5%−5.2%
Aug 7, 2024$1.85
est $1.53
+20.9%$633.5M
est $616.1M
+2.8%+11.2%
May 2, 2024$1.41
est $1.28
+10.2%$559.6M
est $558.3M
+0.2%+6.4%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

SM Energy stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for SM Energy is $43.18, +28.7% from the last close, from 14 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$43.18consensus 12-month target, +28.7% from the last close
Low $32High $52
Buy10
Hold3
Sell1

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 14 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 23Siebert Williams Shank & CoBuy, maintained$52+55.0%
Sep 15UBSBuy, reiterated$48+43.1%
Sep 15KeyBancBuy, maintained$46+37.1%
Sep 15UBSBuy, maintained$48+43.1%
Sep 14UBSBuy, maintained$48+43.1%
−0.7%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+6.6%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±4.7%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

SM Energy seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, SM Energy averaged +6.6% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+22.2%2021+17.8%2022+2.2%2023+5.0%2024−18.5%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+6.7%3 of 5
Next 10 trading days+8.0%4 of 5
Next 15 trading days+5.6%4 of 5
Next 20 trading days+6.6%4 of 5
Next 30 trading days+4.0%3 of 5

For scale, SM’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 9.4%.

SM Energy market cap and key statistics

SM Energy’s market cap is $8.04B, with a P/E ratio of 6.1 and revenue of $4.96B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$8.04B
P/E ratio
6.1
Forward P/E
4.4
EPS, TTM
$5.77
Gekko Fair Value
$31.89

Trading

Volume
3.68M
Avg volume, 20 days
4.22M
52-week high
$41.56
52-week low
$17.45
Shares outstanding
237.9M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$4.96B
Profit margin
20.2%
Return on equity
16.1%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+153.9%

Risk and income

Beta
0.75
Typical daily move
±4.7%
Typical 20-day move
±9.4%
Dividend yield
2.39%

SM Energy stock news this week

Coverage of SM Energy this week reads neutral: 1 positive, 1 neutral and 1 negative headlines.

News sentiment neutral

SM Energy peers

SM Energy’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
COPConocoPhillips−2.6%Accumulation41.2% below
FANGDiamondback Energy−2.8%Accumulation6.0% above
ARAntero Resources−2.0%Accumulation28.4% below
RRCRange Resources−1.8%Accumulation7.3% below
MGYMagnolia Oil & Gas−2.8%Accumulation30.8% below
MURMurphy Oil−1.2%Accumulation5.6% above

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

SM Energy stock FAQ

What is SM Energy’s market cap?

SM Energy’s market cap is $8.04B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $33.55, with 237.9M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 6.1.

What is the SM Energy stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for SM Energy is $43.18, +28.7% from the last close. Of the 14 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 10 rate it a buy, 3 a hold and 1 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is SM Energy stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate SM Energy is overvalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $33.55 is 5.2% above Gekko Fair Value of $31.89. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does SM Energy report earnings next?

SM Energy is expected to report on Nov 2, 2026 (34 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.75 per share on revenue of $1.93B. SM Energy beat the earnings estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports, moving 5.2% on average across the report.

What is SM Energy’s 52-week high and low?

SM Energy’s 52-week high is $41.56 and its 52-week low is $17.45; it closed at $33.55 on Sep 28, 2026, +22.8% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $54.97 on Jun 8, 2022.

Is SM Energy stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, earnings risk and seasonality), 1 as mixed (trend) and 1 as a headwind (fair value). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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