Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for NOG in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every NOG insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open NOG in Gekko
NYSE: NOG
Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$25.42+0.66 (+2.7%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryOct 12 closeNorthern Oil and Gas moves this week on oil-supply disruption news, with shares jumping after a Gulf tanker attack slowed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and hurricanes forced production halts in the Gulf of Mexico, lifting benchmark oil prices and related names across the sector. The company also scheduled its third-quarter earnings release for 5 November 2026, after market close, with analysts projecting earnings of $1.02 per share on revenue of $600.62 million. Separate commentary frames NOG as undervalued against a fair value estimate tied to disciplined capital allocation and leverage management.
The stock closes at $25.42, up 2.7%, sitting above both its 50-day average of $24.60 and 200-day average of $24.14, with the shorter average above the longer one. The GekkoIndex reads 53.2, placing it in the Neutral zone, down 6.9 over the past five sessions. Price sits 5.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $26.89. One-month return stands at -4.4%, three-month at 26.2%, and the one-year return is 7.5%.
Earnings arrive on 5 November 2026, after close, 23 days out and inside a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior report on 6 August beat estimates ($1.13 versus $1.02) with a 9.3% reaction, part of a 7-of-8 beat record averaging a 6.3% move. Seasonality over the next 20 trading days has averaged -1.2% across 5 years, rising in 2 of them. No insider, Congress or unusual options activity appears in the respective windows. Analyst consensus carries a $30.44 target.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Northern Oil and Gas price vs fair value
Close $25.42200-day averageGekko Fair Value $26.89
Northern Oil and Gas quick facts
- Market cap
- $2.77B
- P/E ratio
- —
- Forward P/E
- 4.6
- EPS, TTM
- −$4.85
- Revenue, TTM
- $2.01B
- Profit margin
- -24.1%
- Dividend yield
- 7.44%
- Beta
- 0.92
- Volume
- 1.24M avg 2.08M
- 1-year return
- +7.5%
- Typical daily move
- ±3%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±9%
- 50-day average
- $24.60
- 200-day average
- $24.14
- Next earnings
- Nov 5 after close
- Shares outstanding
- 106.5M
Northern Oil and Gas swing-trade checklist
Northern Oil and Gas scores 2 supportive, 1 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
2 supportive1 mixed2 headwinds
- Trendsupportive
Above 50 and 200-day
Close $25.42 is above the 50-day ($24.60) and 200-day ($24.14) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexmixed
53.2, Neutral
Reading 53.2 is in the Neutral zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
5.5% below
Price is 5.5% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 24 days
Reports on Nov 5, 2026, 24 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalityheadwind
−1.2% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −1.2% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Northern Oil and Gas stock chart and price history
Northern Oil and Gas closed at $25.42 on Oct 12, 2026, +7.5% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $17.18 to $31.17.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −4.4%
- 3 months
- +26.2%
- 6 months
- −6.7%
- 1 year
- +7.5%
The full NOG chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open NOG in Gekko
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About Northern Oil and Gas
Northern Oil and Gas works in the energy space, focused on crude oil and natural gas properties across their full lifecycle: acquiring, exploring, developing, and producing. Its work centers on major U.S. shale regions, specifically the Williston, Appalachian, and Permian Basins, where it holds interests in a large number of producing wells.
The company functions as an independent operator rather than a fully integrated energy firm, participating in oil and gas properties through ownership stakes rather than direct operational control in every instance. As of the end of 2021, it reported proved reserves measured in the hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil equivalent, reflecting the scale of its holdings across these basins.
Northern Oil and Gas is based in Minnetonka, Minnesota. Its shares trade on the NYSE under the ticker NOG.
- Listed
- NYSE
- Sector
- Energy minerals
- Industry
- Oil & gas production
- Website
- noginc.com
Northern Oil and Gas GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Northern Oil and Gas’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 53.2, in the Neutral zone, down 6.9 points over five sessions.
53.2Neutral
Down 6.9 points over five sessions, from the Accumulation zone.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 61 | +0.4% | +4.5% | ||
| Accumulation | 247 | +0.7% | −0.2% | ||
| Neutral (current zone) | 335 | −0.6% | −0.8% | ||
| Distribution | 38 | −0.6% | −3.7% | ||
| Selling | 1 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average NOG share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the NOG price, zone by zone.Track NOG in Gekko
Is Northern Oil and Gas stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Northern Oil and Gas trades 5.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $26.89, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Northern Oil and Gas shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$26.89
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026
5.5% Undervalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 3.5% below the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open NOG in Gekko
Northern Oil and Gas insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Northern Oil and Gas, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in NOG were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for NOG, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open NOG in Gekko
Buybacks
Northern Oil and Gas has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $50.05M
- As a share of market cap
- 1.81%
From company filings.
Northern Oil and Gas earnings: next date and track record
Northern Oil and Gas reports on Nov 5, 2026, after the close (24 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 5, 2026
Expected after the close, 24 days away
- EPS estimate
- $1.05
- Revenue estimate
- $600.6M
7 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±6.3%average move across the report
5 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Aug 6, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Management presented a quarter characterized by strong operational and financial performance despite regional disruptions. Adjusted EBITDA increased 17% sequentially and free cash flow rose more than 400% from Q1. Total production was up 9% year-over-year with record natural gas volumes (+35% YoY). Management highlighted improved oil realizations (unhedged net oil price +36% QoQ), strong NGL prices, and gas realizations at ~90% of Henry Hub (123% including hedges and Waha base). Budgeted capital for the quarter was $196 million (D&C $151M, ground game $45M) with normalized well costs of $761 per lateral foot. Operating performance exceeded internal expectations in Williston, Uinta and Appalachia (full quarter contribution from Utica JDA), while Permian volumes were affected by earlier Waha-related curtailments that are now easing. M&A activity was emphasized (Duvernay and Parallax acquisitions) as accretive and strategic, expanding the company’s addressable market into Canada. Management argued the public market undervalues the company’s asset base (internal asset value >$7B vs. enterprise value $4.6B) and reiterated capital allocation priorities: funded dividend, potential buybacks, selective acquisitions, and opportunistic asset sales.
- Guidance
- Yes. Management gave forward-looking ranges: adjusted EBITDA of $1.4 billion to over $1.5 billion for the year (based on current strip pricing); D&C capital budget of $850 million to $900 million to sustain production; implied free cash flow of approximately $375 million to over $500 million. They also indicated the dividend is multiple-times covered across this range.
- Risks flagged
- Yes. Management mentioned several risks: regional operating headwinds (notably Waha curtailments and challenging Waha economics), volatile commodity prices, logistical constraints (Permian takeaway/gathering bottlenecks), potential weather-related demand variability (El Niño risk), rising LOE over time for aging wells, and public-market valuation disconnects. They also noted general macro and execution risks referenced in safe-harbor/SEC filings.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | $1.13 est $1.02 | $745.2M est $594.1M | +9.3% |
| Apr 28, 2026 | $0.74 est $0.68 | $5.03M est $511.4M | +4.0% |
| Feb 25, 2026 | $0.83 est $0.96 | $610.2M est $520.5M | −3.4% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | $1.03 est $0.87 | $485.9M est $529.0M | +5.5% |
| Jul 31, 2025 | $1.37 est $0.95 | $578.0M est $528.4M | −12.5% |
| Apr 29, 2025 | $1.33 est $1.13 | $580.3M est $545.7M | −2.0% |
| Feb 19, 2025 | $1.11 est $1.08 | $549.2M est $552.3M | +0.5% |
| Nov 5, 2024 | $1.40 est $1.20 | $515.5M est $597.8M | +13.4% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Northern Oil and Gas stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Northern Oil and Gas is $30.44, +19.7% from the last close, from 6 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$30.44consensus 12-month target, +19.7% from the last close
Now $25.42Avg $30.44
Low $25High $31
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 6 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29 | William Blair | — | — |
| Sep 10 | Raymond James | $31 | +22.0% |
| Aug 31 | RBC Capital | $30 | +18.0% |
| Aug 31 | RBC Capital | $30 | +18.0% |
| Aug 20 | RBC Capital | $30 | +18.0% |
−0.8%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
−1.2%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Northern Oil and Gas seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Northern Oil and Gas averaged −1.2% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | −2.0% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −2.5% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | −3.5% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | −1.2% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | −3.5% | 2 of 5 |
For scale, NOG’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 9%.
Northern Oil and Gas market cap and key statistics
Northern Oil and Gas’s market cap is $2.77B and revenue of $2.01B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $2.77B
- Forward P/E
- 4.6
- EPS, TTM
- −$4.85
- Gekko Fair Value
- $26.89
Trading
- Volume
- 1.24M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 2.08M
- 52-week high
- $31.17
- 52-week low
- $17.18
- Shares outstanding
- 106.5M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $2.01B
- Profit margin
- -24.1%
- Return on equity
- -22.1%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +119.0%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.92
- Typical daily move
- ±3%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±9%
- Dividend yield
- 7.44%
Northern Oil and Gas stock news this week
Coverage of Northern Oil and Gas this week reads positive: 4 positive, 4 neutral and 0 negative headlines.
- NOG Provides Third Quarter Operational UpdateBusiness Wire, Oct 12
- Northern Oil And Gas (NOG) Could Be 19% Below Fair Value Following Oil Supply ShockSimply Wall Street, Oct 11
- Did Oil Supply Disruptions Just Shift Northern Oil and Gas Stock Investment Narrative?Simply Wall Street, Oct 10
- Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) Q3 2026 Earnings Date, Time & EstimatesMarketBeat, Oct 10
- Press Release: NOG Schedules Third Quarter Earnings Release and Conference CallMoomoo, Oct 8
- Northern Oil and Gas, Matador Resources, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and Occidental Petroleum Shares Skyrocket, What You Need To KnowFinancialContent, Oct 8
Northern Oil and Gas peers
Northern Oil and Gas’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| COPConocoPhillips | Neutral | 32.8% below |
| FANGDiamondback Energy | Neutral | 11.2% above |
| ARAntero Resources | Neutral | 22.1% below |
| RRCRange Resources | Neutral | 2.2% above |
| SMSM Energy | Neutral | 16.9% above |
| MGYMagnolia Oil & Gas | Accumulation | 28.6% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Northern Oil and Gas stock FAQ
What is Northern Oil and Gas’s market cap?
Northern Oil and Gas’s market cap is $2.77B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $25.42, with 106.5M shares outstanding.
What is the Northern Oil and Gas stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Northern Oil and Gas is $30.44, +19.7% from the last close. Of the 6 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 3 rate it a buy, 2 a hold and 1 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Northern Oil and Gas stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Northern Oil and Gas is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $25.42 is 5.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $26.89. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Northern Oil and Gas report earnings next?
Northern Oil and Gas is expected to report on Nov 5, 2026, after the market closes (24 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.05 per share on revenue of $600.6M. Northern Oil and Gas beat the earnings estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports, moving 6.3% on average across the report.
What is Northern Oil and Gas’s 52-week high and low?
Northern Oil and Gas’s 52-week high is $31.17 and its 52-week low is $17.18; it closed at $25.42 on Oct 12, 2026, +7.5% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $44.31 on Nov 27, 2024.
Is Northern Oil and Gas stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (trend and fair value), 1 as mixed (gekkoindex) and 2 as headwinds (earnings risk and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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