Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for FLY in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every FLY insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open FLY in Gekko
NASDAQ: FLY
Firefly Aerospace (FLY) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$19.37−0.63 (−3.1%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryOct 12 closeThis week's attention on Firefly Aerospace centers on comparisons with other space and industrials names, including AST SpaceMobile, MDA Space, and Rocket Lab, alongside continued contract activity. Firefly's SciTec unit expanded its USAF contract to add Counter UAS data to the Advanced Battle Management System, and secured an additional $1.5 million on its cloud-based command and control contract, bringing that total to $31 million. Richard F. Ambrose was appointed to the board effective 5 October, reporting no direct or indirect securities ownership.
FLY closed at $19.37, down 3.1%, sitting below both its 50-day average of $22.89 and its 200-day average of $27.78, with the 50-day below the 200-day. The stock is down 8.3% over one month, 10.1% over three months, and 50.1% over six months. The GekkoIndex reads 65.8, placing it in the Accumulation zone, up 8.3 over five sessions. Price sits 32.3% below the $28.60 Gekko Fair Value estimate.
The next earnings date is 11 November 2026, after the close, 30 days away and outside a typical 20-trading-day hold; the prior report on 11 August showed an EPS of -0.42 against a -0.51 estimate, with a 3% reaction. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the current window. Analyst coverage spans 9 firms, with 5 buy and 4 hold ratings and a consensus target of $38.18. One trailblazer holder is noted, worth watching alongside the stock's typical 24.4% 20-day move.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Firefly Aerospace price vs fair value
Close $19.37200-day averageGekko Fair Value $28.60
Firefly Aerospace quick facts
- Market cap
- $3.18B
- P/E ratio
- —
- Forward P/E
- —
- EPS, TTM
- −$0.26
- Revenue, TTM
- $287.0M
- Profit margin
- -129.1%
- Dividend yield
- —
- Beta
- —
- Volume
- 1.70M avg 3.58M
- 1-year return
- −35.6%
- Typical daily move
- ±8.7%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±24.4%
- 50-day average
- $22.89
- 200-day average
- $27.78
- Next earnings
- Nov 11 after close
- Shares outstanding
- 167.4M
Firefly Aerospace swing-trade checklist
Firefly Aerospace scores 3 supportive, 0 mixed and 1 headwind across the 4 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive0 mixed1 headwind
- Trendheadwind
Below 50 and 200-day
Close $19.37 is below the 50-day ($22.89) and 200-day ($27.78) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
65.8, Accumulation
Reading 65.8 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
32.3% below
Price is 32.3% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 30 days
Next report Nov 11, 2026, 30 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalityno data
No data
Not enough years of history for a seasonal read.
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Firefly Aerospace stock chart and price history
Firefly Aerospace closed at $19.37 on Oct 12, 2026, −35.6% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $16.00 to $62.17.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −8.3%
- 3 months
- −10.1%
- 6 months
- −50.1%
- 1 year
- −35.6%
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About Firefly Aerospace
Firefly Aerospace builds technology for reaching and operating in space, serving national security programs, government agencies, and commercial customers. It is recognized for a line of space hardware and services that covers launch, orbital maneuvering, and lunar missions.
Its work is organized around named products: Alpha, a small launch vehicle built for quick turnaround; Eclipse, designed for heavier payloads; Blue Ghost, used to deliver cargo to the lunar surface and support operations there; Elytra, which handles in-space movement and servicing of satellites; and Ocula, a service focused on imaging the Moon. Together these offerings span getting payloads off the ground, moving them once in orbit, and extending operations to the lunar surface, with government and commercial clients drawing on different parts of this lineup.
The company was founded in 2017 and operates out of Cedar Park, Texas. Its shares are listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker FLY.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Electronic technology
- Industry
- Aerospace & defense
- Website
- fireflyspace.com
Firefly Aerospace GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Firefly Aerospace’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 65.8, in the Accumulation zone, up 8.3 points over five sessions.
65.8Accumulation
Up 8.3 points over five sessions, from the Neutral zone.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 23 | −0.8% | +4.7% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 147 | −2.1% | −3.6% | ||
| Neutral | 108 | +2.1% | +3.7% | ||
| Distribution | 13 | −4.4% | −13.8% | ||
| Selling | 0 | Not available | |||
Average FLY share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the FLY price, zone by zone.Track FLY in Gekko
Is Firefly Aerospace stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Firefly Aerospace trades 32.3% below Gekko Fair Value of $28.60, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Firefly Aerospace shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$28.60
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026
32.3% Undervalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 40.3% below the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open FLY in Gekko
Firefly Aerospace insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Firefly Aerospace, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in FLY were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for FLY, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open FLY in Gekko
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
1of the funds Gekko tracks holds FLY.
0added0opened1trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
Firefly Aerospace earnings: next date and track record
Firefly Aerospace reports on Nov 11, 2026, after the close (30 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 2 of its last 5 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 11, 2026
Expected after the close, 30 days away
- EPS estimate
- −$0.49
- Revenue estimate
- $102.4M
2 of 5reports beat the EPS estimate
±4.3%average move across the report
2 of 4reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Aug 11, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Firefly Aerospace reported Q2 2026 revenue surpassing $100 million, achieving a record backlog of $1.5 billion driven by multiple contract wins across Blue Ghost, Elytra, Alpha, Eclipse, FORGE, and Golden Dome programs. The company secured its fifth and sixth moon mission contracts from NASA and recently acquired Space-ng. Firefly expanded its spacecraft campus to 144,000 square feet and is scaling production capacity to meet growing lunar and national security demand.
- Guidance
- Record $1.5 billion backlog supports long-term growth trajectory. Management cites significant tailwinds from Space Force budget increases, Golden Dome, and launch supply constraints as key demand drivers across all product lines.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | −$0.42 est −$0.51 | $117.7M est $88.20M | +3.0% |
| May 4, 2026 | −$0.46 est −$0.52 | $80.88M est $77.08M | −6.7% |
| Mar 19, 2026 | −$0.38 est −$0.32 | $57.67M est $52.41M | +0.1% |
| Sep 22, 2025 | −$5.30 est −$0.42 | $15.55M est $16.82M | −7.2% |
| Jul 11, 2025 | −$0.47 est −$0.43 | $55.86M est $16.82M | — |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Firefly Aerospace stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Firefly Aerospace is $38.18, +97.1% from the last close, from 9 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$38.18consensus 12-month target, +97.1% from the last close
Now $19.37Avg $38.18
Low $25High $50
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 9 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8 | Barclays | $34 | +75.5% |
| Sep 13 | Roth MKM | $45 | +132.3% |
| Sep 11 | Morgan Stanley | $37 | +91.0% |
| Aug 13 | Morgan Stanley | $37 | +91.0% |
| Aug 12 | B. Riley Securities | $50 | +158.1% |
−3.6%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
±8.7%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Firefly Aerospace market cap and key statistics
Firefly Aerospace’s market cap is $3.18B and revenue of $287.0M over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $3.18B
- EPS, TTM
- −$0.26
- Gekko Fair Value
- $28.60
Trading
- Volume
- 1.70M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 3.58M
- 52-week high
- $62.17
- 52-week low
- $16.00
- Shares outstanding
- 167.4M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $287.0M
- Profit margin
- -129.1%
- Return on equity
- -58%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- 0.0%
Risk and income
- Typical daily move
- ±8.7%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±24.4%
Firefly Aerospace stock news this week
Coverage of Firefly Aerospace this week reads neutral: 2 positive, 5 neutral and 0 negative headlines.
- AST SpaceMobile vs. Firefly Aerospace: Which Space-Based Venture's Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?The Motley Fool, Oct 12
- Head-To-Head Survey: Firefly Aerospace (NASDAQ:FLY) & MDA Space (NYSE:MDA)Defense World, Oct 12
- Firefly Aerospace vs. Rocket Lab: Which Industrials Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?Yahoo Finance, Oct 10
- Firefly's SciTec Expands Contract with USAF to Add Counter UAS Data in Advanced Battle Management SystemASDNews, Oct 9
- Firefly Aerospace unit lands $1.5M U.S. Air Force contract boostTradingView, Oct 8
- Richard F. Ambrose Appointed to Firefly Aerospace Board, Reports No Securities OwnershipKalkine Media, Oct 8
Firefly Aerospace peers
Firefly Aerospace’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| GEGE Aerospace | Accumulation | 1.9% below |
| RTXRTX | Accumulation | 10.9% below |
| BABoeing | Accumulation | 19.2% below |
| LMTLockheed Martin | Accumulation | 21.5% below |
| GDGeneral Dynamics | Accumulation | 8.6% below |
| HWMHowmet Aerospace | Accumulation | 3.8% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Firefly Aerospace stock FAQ
What is Firefly Aerospace’s market cap?
Firefly Aerospace’s market cap is $3.18B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $19.37, with 167.4M shares outstanding.
What is the Firefly Aerospace stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Firefly Aerospace is $38.18, +97.1% from the last close. Of the 9 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 5 rate it a buy, 4 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Firefly Aerospace stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Firefly Aerospace is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $19.37 is 32.3% below Gekko Fair Value of $28.60. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Firefly Aerospace report earnings next?
Firefly Aerospace is expected to report on Nov 11, 2026, after the market closes (30 days away). Analysts expect earnings of −$0.49 per share on revenue of $102.4M. Firefly Aerospace beat the earnings estimate in 2 of its last 5 reports, moving 4.3% on average across the report.
What is Firefly Aerospace’s 52-week high and low?
Firefly Aerospace’s 52-week high is $62.17 and its 52-week low is $16.00; it closed at $19.37 on Oct 12, 2026, −35.6% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $73.80 on Aug 7, 2025.
Is Firefly Aerospace stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 4 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and earnings risk) and 1 as a headwind (trend). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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