Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for CHDN in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every CHDN insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open CHDN in Gekko
NASDAQ: CHDN
Churchill Downs (CHDN) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Sep 28 close
$75.72−4.05 (−5.1%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryChurchill Downs closed a new $500 million senior secured Term Loan B due 2033 this week, alongside an amended and extended credit facility that pushes the maturity of its existing revolving credit facility and term loan A from 2029 to 2031, with proceeds used to repay existing loans and for general corporate purposes. CEO Bill Carstanjen also addressed several industry topics publicly, including computer-assisted wagering management, criticism of HISA's oversight following a data breach and betting scandal, and the company's bid for Preakness intellectual property rights amid discussion of a new Thoroughbred Championship Series.
The stock closed at $75.72, down 5.1%, after touching a new 52-week low, and sits below both its 50-day average of $85.82 and 200-day average of $92.04, with the 50-day below the 200-day. The GekkoIndex reads 70.4, placing it in the Buying zone. Price remains 41.2% below Gekko Fair Value of $128.87.
Over the next 20 trading days, the next earnings date falls on 28 October, 29 days away and outside that window. No insider, Congress or unusual options activity appears in their respective 90-day and 30-day windows. Seasonally, this calendar stretch has averaged a 4.3% gain over 5 years, rising in 4 of them. The last earnings reaction was -7.3% despite matching estimates at $3.45, with an average absolute reaction of 6.2% across recent quarters, a pattern worth noting given the report falls just after this holding window.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.
Churchill Downs price vs fair value
Close $75.72200-day averageGekko Fair Value $128.87
Churchill Downs quick facts
- Market cap
- $5.28B
- P/E ratio
- 13.5
- Forward P/E
- 22.9
- EPS, TTM
- $5.89
- Revenue, TTM
- $2.99B
- Profit margin
- 13.8%
- Dividend yield
- 0.55%
- Beta
- 0.67
- Volume
- 1.60M avg 1.10M
- 1-year return
- −21.3%
- Typical daily move
- ±3.7%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±5.5%
- 50-day average
- $85.82
- 200-day average
- $92.04
- Next earnings
- Oct 28
- Shares outstanding
- 69.70M
Churchill Downs swing-trade checklist
Churchill Downs scores 4 supportive, 0 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
4 supportive0 mixed1 headwind
- Trendheadwind
Below 50 and 200-day
Close $75.72 is below the 50-day ($85.82) and 200-day ($92.04) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
70.4, Buying
Reading 70.4 is in the Buying zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
41.2% below
Price is 41.2% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 29 days
Next report Oct 28, 2026, 29 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+4.3% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +4.3% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Churchill Downs stock chart and price history
Churchill Downs closed at $75.72 on Sep 28, 2026, −21.3% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $74.92 to $118.35.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −12.5%
- 3 months
- −16.7%
- 6 months
- −10.4%
- 1 year
- −21.3%
The full CHDN chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open CHDN in Gekko
Follow Churchill Downs through every session
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About Churchill Downs
Churchill Downs runs horse racing and gaming operations for people who bet on races, play slots and table games, or wager online. It is known for its historical racing venues in Kentucky and for TwinSpires, its digital platform for horse racing, sports betting and iGaming. The company also streams live races and replays and provides handicapping information to bettors and racing fans.
The business is organized around three areas: live and historical racing, TwinSpires, and gaming. Its Kentucky venues house thousands of historical racing machines, while its casino operations span multiple states with a large base of slot machines, video lottery terminals and table games, alongside a handful of physical sportsbooks. Churchill Downs also supplies pari-mutuel wagering systems to racetracks and off-track betting facilities, and operates Bloodstock Research Information Services, which supplies statistical data to the racing industry. Its customers include everyday bettors, racetrack operators and other wagering businesses.
Founded in 1875 and headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky, Churchill Downs is listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker CHDN.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer services
- Industry
- Movies/Entertainment
- Website
- churchilldownsincorporated.com
Churchill Downs GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Churchill Downs’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 70.4, in the Buying zone, up 2.3 points over five sessions.
70.4Buying
Up 2.3 points over five sessions, from the Accumulation zone.
Reading for Sep 28, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying (current zone) | 51 | +1.3% | −2.2% | ||
| Accumulation | 274 | −0.6% | −1.3% | ||
| Neutral | 311 | −0.1% | +0.1% | ||
| Distribution | 31 | −0.7% | −4.6% | ||
| Selling | 5 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average CHDN share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Buying readings averaged +3.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Buying zone: Smart money likely accumulating heavily. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the CHDN price, zone by zone.Track CHDN in Gekko
Is Churchill Downs stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Churchill Downs trades 41.2% below Gekko Fair Value of $128.87, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Churchill Downs shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$128.87
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 29, 2026
41.2% Undervalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open CHDN in Gekko
Churchill Downs insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Churchill Downs, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in CHDN were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for CHDN, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open CHDN in Gekko
Buybacks
Churchill Downs has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Mar 31, 2026
- $3.00M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.06%
- Trailing four quarters
- $343.8M
From company filings.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
2of the funds Gekko tracks hold CHDN.
1added1opened0trimmed0sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
Churchill Downs earnings: next date and track record
Churchill Downs reports on Oct 28, 2026 (29 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Oct 28, 2026
29 days away
- EPS estimate
- $1.22
- Revenue estimate
- $700.9M
5 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±6.2%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Jul 29, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- CHDN reported all-time record Q2 2026 net revenue of $980 million and adjusted EBITDA of $477 million, marking six consecutive record second quarters. The 152nd Kentucky Derby drew 386,000+ guests during Derby Week, with peak NBC viewership of 24 million (up 12% YoY) and broadcast revenue increasing $10 million. All-source wagering hit all-time records, and social media impressions surged 84% to 500 million. Key capital projects include the $285 million Victory Run hospitality complex.
- Guidance
- The $285 million Victory Run project at Churchill Downs Racetrack remains on time and on budget for completion before the 2028 Kentucky Derby. Temporary premium seating improvements are planned for the 2027 Derby, with additional HRM expansion ongoing in New Hampshire.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | $3.45 est $3.45 | $980.0M est $977.4M | −7.3% |
| Feb 25, 2026 | $0.97 est $0.85 | $665.9M est $660.1M | −6.1% |
| Oct 22, 2025 | $1.09 est $0.97 | $683.0M est $656.3M | +7.3% |
| Jul 23, 2025 | $3.10 est $3.03 | $934.4M est $667.7M | +5.3% |
| Apr 23, 2025 | $1.07 est $1.04 | $642.6M est $642.8M | −14.6% |
| Feb 19, 2025 | $0.92 est $0.98 | $624.2M est $660.3M | −2.1% |
| Oct 23, 2024 | $0.97 est $1.06 | $628.5M est $619.9M | +4.4% |
| Jul 24, 2024 | $2.89 est $2.71 | $890.7M est $858.6M | −2.6% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Churchill Downs stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Churchill Downs is $130.83, +72.8% from the last close, from 10 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$130.83consensus 12-month target, +72.8% from the last close
Now $75.72Avg $130.83
Low $100High $157
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 10 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2 | Wolfe Research | $119 | +57.2% |
| Aug 4 | Barclays | $132 | +74.3% |
| Aug 3 | Mizuho Securities | $157 | +107.3% |
| Aug 3 | Bank of America Securities | $100 | +32.1% |
| Jul 31 | Jefferies | $124 | +63.8% |
−2.2%average 20-day move after past Buying readings
+4.3%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.7%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Churchill Downs seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 26, Churchill Downs averaged +4.3% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +1.3% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +1.0% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +3.3% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +4.3% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +5.7% | 4 of 5 |
For scale, CHDN’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 5.5%.
Churchill Downs market cap and key statistics
Churchill Downs’s market cap is $5.28B, with a P/E ratio of 13.5 and revenue of $2.99B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $5.28B
- P/E ratio
- 13.5
- Forward P/E
- 22.9
- EPS, TTM
- $5.89
- Gekko Fair Value
- $128.87
Trading
- Volume
- 1.60M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 1.10M
- 52-week high
- $118.35
- 52-week low
- $74.92
- Shares outstanding
- 69.70M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $2.99B
- Profit margin
- 13.8%
- Return on equity
- 33.9%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +14.4%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.67
- Typical daily move
- ±3.7%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±5.5%
- Dividend yield
- 0.55%
Churchill Downs stock news this week
Coverage of Churchill Downs this week reads neutral: 2 positive, 6 neutral and 2 negative headlines.
- Form 8K Churchill Downs Incorporated For: 28 September By Investing.comInvesting.com India, Sep 28
- Q&A part 3: Churchill Downs’ Carstanjen on computer playersHorse Racing Nation, Sep 28
- Two existing borrowing agreements now run to 2031 as Churchill Downs closes a $500 million loan.Stock Titan, Sep 28
- Churchill Downs Incorporated Announces Closing of Amended and Extended Credit Facility and New Term Loan BThe Manila Times, Sep 28
- Q&A part 2: Churchill’s Carstanjen asks is HISA worth it?Horse Racing Nation, Sep 27
- Q&A part 1: Churchill CEO Carstanjen on Triple CrownHorse Racing Nation, Sep 26
Churchill Downs peers
Churchill Downs’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| DISWalt Disney | Neutral | 0.1% below |
| LYVLive Nation Entertainment | Accumulation | 9.7% below |
| TKOTKO | Accumulation | 43.6% below |
| DKNGDraftKings | Accumulation | 50.1% below |
| MSGSMadison Square Garden Sports | Neutral | 6.6% above |
| CNKCinemark | Neutral | 38.7% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Churchill Downs stock FAQ
What is Churchill Downs’s market cap?
Churchill Downs’s market cap is $5.28B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $75.72, with 69.70M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 13.5.
What is the Churchill Downs stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Churchill Downs is $130.83, +72.8% from the last close. Of the 10 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 10 rate it a buy, 0 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Churchill Downs stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Churchill Downs is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $75.72 is 41.2% below Gekko Fair Value of $128.87. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Churchill Downs report earnings next?
Churchill Downs is expected to report on Oct 28, 2026 (29 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.22 per share on revenue of $700.9M. Churchill Downs beat the earnings estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports, moving 6.2% on average across the report.
What is Churchill Downs’s 52-week high and low?
Churchill Downs’s 52-week high is $118.35 and its 52-week low is $74.92; it closed at $75.72 on Sep 28, 2026, −21.3% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $150.45 on May 3, 2023.
Is Churchill Downs stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 4 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value, earnings risk and seasonality) and 1 as a headwind (trend). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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