NYSE: TKO

TKO (TKO) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$181.58−1.09 (−0.6%)

Gekko Brief

TKO closed at $181.58 on 28 September 2026, -0.6% on the day. The price sits below both the 50-day ($188.49) and 200-day ($197.15) moving averages, inside a 52-week range of $176.00 to $226.94. The GekkoIndex reads 65.7, in the Accumulation zone, up 7.7 points over five sessions. Gekko Fair Value is $322.21, so the price is 43.6% below it.

The next earnings report is due on 4 November 2026, 36 days away (after close). Over the last 8 reports the company beat the earnings estimate 3 times, with an average move of 3.8% across the report. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days from this point averaged +0.2% over the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

13 firms rate the stock: 13 buy, 0 hold and 0 sell, with a consensus target of $231.42. A typical daily move is about 2.8%, and a typical 20-day move about 6%. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 items read supportive and 1 reads as a headwind (trend).

Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

TKO price vs fair value

▲$322.21$181.58Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $181.58200-day averageGekko Fair Value $322.21

TKO quick facts

Market cap
$13.61B
P/E ratio
66.3
Forward P/E
48.8
EPS, TTM
$2.79
Revenue, TTM
$5.30B
Profit margin
4.3%
Dividend yield
1.64%
Beta
0.64
Volume
940,302 avg 1.13M
1-year return
−7.3%
Typical daily move
±2.8%
Typical 20-day move
±6%
50-day average
$188.49
200-day average
$197.15
Next earnings
Nov 4 after close
Shares outstanding
73.11M
52-week range
$176.00$226.94

TKO swing-trade checklist

TKO scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive1 mixed1 headwind

  • Trendheadwind

    Below 50 and 200-day

    Close $181.58 is below the 50-day ($188.49) and 200-day ($197.15) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    65.7, Accumulation

    Reading 65.7 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    43.6% below

    Price is 43.6% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 36 days

    Next report Nov 4, 2026, 36 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitymixed

    +0.2% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +0.2% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

TKO stock chart and price history

TKO closed at $181.58 on Sep 28, 2026, −7.3% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $176.00 to $226.94.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
TKO share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$160$200$220NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep181.58

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−1.5%
3 months
−14.2%
6 months
−4.0%
1 year
−7.3%
The full TKO chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open TKO in Gekko

Follow TKO through every session

Put TKO on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

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TKO GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

TKO’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 65.7, in the Accumulation zone, up 7.7 points over five sessions.

010065.7Accumulation

Up 7.7 points over five sessions, from the Neutral zone.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying10+8.6%+6.2%+15.1%+16.0%
Accumulation (current zone)183+1.3%+2.8%+6.6%+11.3%
Neutral403+0.5%+1.1%+1.9%+6.1%
Distribution68+0.3%−0.2%−2.5%+2.9%
Selling8Too few readings yet

Average TKO share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the TKO price, zone by zone.Track TKO in Gekko

Is TKO stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

TKO trades 43.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $322.21, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what TKO shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$322.21

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026

43.6% Undervalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open TKO in Gekko

TKO insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for TKO, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for TKO in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every TKO insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open TKO in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in TKO were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for TKO, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open TKO in Gekko

Buybacks

TKO has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$129.3M
As a share of market cap
0.95%
Trailing four quarters
$1.83B

From company filings.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Sep 30

1of the funds Gekko tracks holds TKO.

1added0opened0trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

TKO earnings: next date and track record

TKO reports on Nov 4, 2026, after the close (36 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 3 of its last 8 reports.

3 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±3.8%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+7.5%Aug ’24−0.8%Nov ’24−3.7%Feb ’25−5.9%May ’25−1.7%Aug ’25−3.4%Nov ’25+6.9%Feb ’26+0.3%May ’26

Last earnings call, May 6, 2026 AI summary

What they said
TKO reported Q1 2026 results in line with guidance, with key growth drivers including media rights, live events, and global partnerships all performing as planned. UFC's CBS simulcast (UFC 326) was the most watched UFC event since 2016, with CBS audience 270%+ above prior year averages. WWE's WrestleMania 42 delivered strong ESPN ratings. Management announced an incremental $1 billion share buyback authorization and targets 40%+ year-over-year EBITDA growth.
Guidance
Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 targets, expecting EBITDA growth in excess of 40% year-over-year. Six remaining Middle East events are expected to proceed as planned. The existing share repurchase program is expected to be largely complete in the near term.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
May 6, 2026$1.12
est $1.66
−32.5%$1.60B
est $1.59B
+0.3%+0.3%
Feb 25, 2026−$0.03
est $0.32
−109.5%$1.04B
est $1.02B
+1.4%+6.9%
Nov 5, 2025$0.50
est $0.59
−14.7%$1.12B
est $1.12B
+0.2%−3.4%
Aug 6, 2025$1.17
est $1.16
+0.9%$1.31B
est $1.23B
+6.3%−1.7%
May 8, 2025$0.69
est $0.55
+24.4%$1.27B
est $876.1M
+44.8%−5.9%
Feb 26, 2025$0.28
est $0.17
+64.7%$642.2M
est $605.6M
+6.1%−3.7%
Nov 6, 2024$0.28
est $0.51
−45.1%$681.3M
est $665.1M
+2.4%−0.8%
Aug 8, 2024$0.72
est $0.87
−17.2%$851.2M
est $771.5M
+10.3%+7.5%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

TKO stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for TKO is $231.42, +27.4% from the last close, from 13 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$231.42consensus 12-month target, +27.4% from the last close
Low $210High $250
Buy13
Hold0
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 13 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 24Bank of America SecuritiesBuy, reiterated$225+23.9%
Sep 16BernsteinBuy, maintained$240+32.2%
Sep 11Goldman SachsBuy, maintained$220+21.2%
Aug 4TD CowenBuy, maintained$250+37.7%
Aug 4Pivotal ResearchBuy, reiterated$250+37.7%
+6.6%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+0.2%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.8%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

TKO seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, TKO averaged +0.2% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+6.7%2021+13.4%2022−2.5%2023−6.0%2024−8.7%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+1.1%3 of 5
Next 10 trading days+0.1%3 of 5
Next 15 trading days+1.1%3 of 5
Next 20 trading days+0.2%2 of 5
Next 30 trading days−2.9%1 of 5

For scale, TKO’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 6%.

TKO market cap and key statistics

TKO’s market cap is $13.61B, with a P/E ratio of 66.3 and revenue of $5.30B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$13.61B
P/E ratio
66.3
Forward P/E
48.8
EPS, TTM
$2.79
Gekko Fair Value
$322.21

Trading

Volume
940,302
Avg volume, 20 days
1.13M
52-week high
$226.94
52-week low
$176.00
Shares outstanding
73.11M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$5.30B
Profit margin
4.3%
Return on equity
7.1%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+14.4%

Risk and income

Beta
0.64
Typical daily move
±2.8%
Typical 20-day move
±6%
Dividend yield
1.64%

TKO stock news this week

1 headline about TKO from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.

TKO peers

TKO’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
DISWalt Disney+0.5%Neutral0.1% below
LYVLive Nation Entertainment+0.6%Accumulation9.7% below
DKNGDraftKings−2.1%Accumulation50.1% below
MSGSMadison Square Garden Sports+3.3%Neutral6.6% above
CHDNChurchill Downs−4.6%Buying41.2% below
CNKCinemark+1.9%Neutral38.7% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

TKO stock FAQ

What is TKO’s market cap?

TKO’s market cap is $13.61B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $181.58, with 73.11M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 66.3.

What is the TKO stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for TKO is $231.42, +27.4% from the last close. Of the 13 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 13 rate it a buy, 0 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is TKO stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate TKO is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $181.58 is 43.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $322.21. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does TKO report earnings next?

TKO is expected to report on Nov 4, 2026, after the market closes (36 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.32 per share on revenue of $1.39B. TKO beat the earnings estimate in 3 of its last 8 reports, moving 3.8% on average across the report.

What is TKO’s 52-week high and low?

TKO’s 52-week high is $226.94 and its 52-week low is $176.00; it closed at $181.58 on Sep 28, 2026, −7.3% over the past year.

Is TKO stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and earnings risk), 1 as mixed (seasonality) and 1 as a headwind (trend). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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