NYSE: BLDR

Builders FirstSource (BLDR) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$58.01−1.16 (−2.0%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

Builders FirstSource shares have stayed under pressure this week, extending a decline tied to second-quarter results released on 30 July. That quarter showed net sales down roughly 8.8% to $3.86 billion, with adjusted EPS of $1.17 missing the $1.28 estimate, and gross profit weakness carried over from a soft housing market spanning single-family, multifamily and repair and remodel activity. Stifel reiterated a Hold rating with a $65.00 price target on 24 September, and shares have traded near their 52-week low amid broader housing-materials weakness and higher bond yields pressuring rate-sensitive names.

BLDR closed at $58.01, down 2% on the day, sitting below both its 50-day average of $66.99 and 200-day average of $86.60, with the stock down 13.7% over the past month and 50.4% over the past year. The GekkoIndex reads 63.7, placing it in the Accumulation zone. Gekko Fair Value stands at $93.08, putting the current price 37.7% below that mark.

The next earnings date falls on 29 October, 30 days out and beyond a typical 20-day holding window. Over the last 90 days, Congress recorded 1 buy and 0 sells, while the last 30 days show 1 unusual options signal with call premium of $324,905 against no put premium. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged -1.6% over 5 years, rising in 3 of those years, a mixed backdrop worth noting alongside the stock's typical 20-day move of 9.7%.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

Builders FirstSource price vs fair value

$93.08$58.01Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $58.01200-day averageGekko Fair Value $93.08

Builders FirstSource quick facts

Market cap
$6.24B
P/E ratio
64.3
Forward P/E
14
EPS, TTM
$0.92
Revenue, TTM
$14.45B
Profit margin
0.7%
Dividend yield
—
Beta
1.41
Volume
1.92M avg 3.85M
1-year return
−50.4%
Typical daily move
±4.2%
Typical 20-day move
±9.7%
50-day average
$66.99
200-day average
$86.60
Next earnings
Oct 29 before open
Shares outstanding
107.6M
52-week range
$56.56$131.50

Builders FirstSource swing-trade checklist

Builders FirstSource scores 4 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 6 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

4 supportive1 mixed1 headwind

  • Trendheadwind

    Below 50 and 200-day

    Close $58.01 is below the 50-day ($66.99) and 200-day ($86.60) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    63.7, Accumulation

    Reading 63.7 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    37.7% below

    Price is 37.7% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneysupportive

    Leans bullish

    Last 90 days: Congress 1 buy / 0 sales. Last 30 days: 1 unusual options signal.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 30 days

    Next report Oct 29, 2026, 30 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitymixed

    −1.6% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −1.6% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Builders FirstSource stock chart and price history

Builders FirstSource closed at $58.01 on Sep 28, 2026, −50.4% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $56.56 to $131.50.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Builders FirstSource share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$80$100$120NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep58.01

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−13.7%
3 months
−35.9%
6 months
−27.9%
1 year
−50.4%
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Follow Builders FirstSource through every session

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About Builders FirstSource

Builders FirstSource makes and delivers building materials, ready-made components, and construction services aimed at professional homebuilders, sub-contractors, remodelers, and everyday consumers. Among the items it turns out are roof and floor trusses built in factories, wall panels, stairs, vinyl windows, custom millwork and trim, plus engineered wood, covering both the framing and finishing stages of a construction job.

Its operations blend in-house manufacturing with distribution, so it produces a good portion of what it then supplies to builders and contractors working on housing projects. The people it serves are mainly professionals in home construction, along with remodelers and consumers seeking building supplies directly.

Kevin P. O'Meara, Donald F. McAleenan, and John D. Roach started the company back in March 1998, and its main offices sit in Irving, Texas. The stock trades on the NYSE, where it goes by the ticker BLDR.

Listed
NYSE
Sector
Retail trade
Industry
Home improvement chains
Website
bldr.com

Builders FirstSource GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Builders FirstSource’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 63.7, in the Accumulation zone, down 8.9 points over five sessions.

010063.7Accumulation

Down 8.9 points over five sessions, from the Buying zone.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying69−0.2%−0.2%+1.1%−7.5%
Accumulation (current zone)287−0.7%−1.0%−2.7%−3.9%
Neutral291−0.5%−1.5%−3.4%−8.2%
Distribution24−1.5%−1.5%+1.0%−10.5%
Selling1Too few readings yet

Average BLDR share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the BLDR price, zone by zone.Track BLDR in Gekko

Is Builders FirstSource stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Builders FirstSource trades 37.7% below Gekko Fair Value of $93.08, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Builders FirstSource shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$93.08

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 29, 2026

37.7% Undervalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open BLDR in Gekko

Builders FirstSource insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Builders FirstSource, and members of Congress disclosed 1 purchase and 0 sales, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for BLDR in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every BLDR insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open BLDR in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

1trade disclosed: 1 purchase and 0 sales.

MemberTypeAmountDisclosed
Ro Khanna
House, CA, purchase
Purchase$1,001 - $15,000Aug 12
traded Jul 7

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Buybacks

Builders FirstSource has been buying back its own shares.

Latest authorization
$500.0M, Apr 30, 2026
Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$3.45M
As a share of market cap
0.06%
Trailing four quarters
$719.6M

From company filings.

Unusual options activity last 30 days

1signal, 100% of the flagged premium in calls.

Latest: Bullish flow on Sep 23, $325K in unusual premium.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30

2of the funds Gekko tracks hold BLDR.

1added1opened0trimmed2sold out
Every signal with its contract, strike and premium, and which funds are on each side.Unlock in Gekko

Builders FirstSource earnings: next date and track record

Builders FirstSource reports on Oct 29, 2026, before the open (30 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports.

4 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±3.5%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+2.5%Nov ’24−5.1%Feb ’25−4.6%May ’25+3.2%Jul ’25+0.8%Oct ’25−0.7%Feb ’26−9.2%Apr ’26−1.9%Jul ’26

Last earnings call, Jul 30, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Builders FirstSource reported second quarter 2026 results showing resilience in a weak housing market but with clearly visible headwinds. Net sales declined ~9% to $3.9 billion driven by lower core organic sales and commodity deflation; core organic sales fell across single-family (-8%), multifamily (-10%) and Repair & Remodel (-2%). Gross profit declined 16.3% year-over-year to $1.1 billion, and gross margin was 28.1% (down 260 bps). Management lowered full-year guidance reflecting a more cautious view of housing starts, reiterated discipline on costs and working capital, and is executing meaningful cost actions (targeting $115 million in 2026, $140 million run-rate including additional actions). They expect about a $100 million headwind from higher fuel costs (inbound and outbound) and reduced 2026 CapEx by $50 million. Management emphasized market share maintenance, digital and value-added capabilities, continued M&A interest, and prudent capital allocation. They signaled margin stability in the second half but noted continued competitive pressure and uncertainty tied to macro factors (inflation, interest rates, geopolitical events).
Guidance
Management lowered full-year guidance to reflect a more cautious view of housing starts (no specific full-year revenue/EPS figures in the transcript). They now expect single-family starts to decline mid-single digit to high-single digit for the year. They expect commodity cost behavior to float up through Q2 and retreat in H2 (no change to prior commodity outlook). They are targeting $115 million of cost reductions in 2026 (with $140 million run-rate including additional actions); $40 million of new cost actions begun immediately with ~$15 million expected to hit in 2026. They expect approximately a $100 million headwind from higher fuel costs for the year. They reduced CapEx guidance by $50 million for 2026.
Risks flagged
Headwinds highlighted include: weak housing demand due to elevated interest rates and affordability pressures, commodity price volatility (lumber/OSB and other materials), a roughly $100 million fuel/diesel cost headwind, competitive pricing pressures compressing margins, geopolitical uncertainty impacting sentiment, potential excess capacity and the need to rationalize locations/facilities, and uncertainty around multi-family starts data. Management also noted potential downside scenarios and emphasized ongoing risk from macro and competitive dynamics.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Jul 30, 2026$1.17
est $1.29
−9.3%$3.86B
est $3.91B
−1.2%−1.9%
Apr 30, 2026$0.27
est $0.90
−69.9%$3.29B
est $3.17B
+3.6%−9.2%
Feb 17, 2026$1.12
est $1.30
−13.8%$3.36B
est $3.45B
−2.8%−0.7%
Oct 30, 2025$1.88
est $1.75
+7.4%$3.94B
est $3.86B
+2.2%+0.8%
Jul 31, 2025$2.38
est $2.35
+1.3%$4.23B
est $3.86B
+9.7%+3.2%
May 1, 2025$1.51
est $1.53
−1.3%$3.66B
est $4.31B
−15.0%−4.6%
Feb 20, 2025$2.31
est $2.21
+4.7%$3.82B
est $3.89B
−1.8%−5.1%
Nov 5, 2024$3.07
est $2.98
+3.0%$4.23B
est $4.44B
−4.7%+2.5%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Builders FirstSource stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Builders FirstSource is $80.62, +39.0% from the last close, from 17 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$80.62consensus 12-month target, +39.0% from the last close
Low $63High $100
Buy9
Hold8
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 17 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 11Wells FargoHold, maintained$63+8.6%
Aug 21Citizens JMPHold, initiated——
Aug 10Goldman SachsBuy, maintained$90+55.1%
Aug 6BMO CapitalHold, maintained$80+37.9%
Aug 4Wells FargoHold, maintained$65+12.0%
−2.7%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
−1.6%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±4.2%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Builders FirstSource seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, Builders FirstSource averaged −1.6% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+5.8%2021+4.6%2022−14.6%2023−4.7%2024+3.0%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+1.9%2 of 5
Next 10 trading days+1.1%3 of 5
Next 15 trading days−1.6%3 of 5
Next 20 trading days−1.6%3 of 5
Next 30 trading days+3.4%2 of 5

For scale, BLDR’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 9.7%.

Builders FirstSource market cap and key statistics

Builders FirstSource’s market cap is $6.24B, with a P/E ratio of 64.3 and revenue of $14.45B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$6.24B
P/E ratio
64.3
Forward P/E
14
EPS, TTM
$0.92
Gekko Fair Value
$93.08

Trading

Volume
1.92M
Avg volume, 20 days
3.85M
52-week high
$131.50
52-week low
$56.56
Shares outstanding
107.6M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$14.45B
Profit margin
0.7%
Return on equity
2.5%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
−82.9%

Risk and income

Beta
1.41
Typical daily move
±4.2%
Typical 20-day move
±9.7%

Builders FirstSource stock news this week

Coverage of Builders FirstSource this week reads negative: 3 positive, 2 neutral and 4 negative headlines.

News sentiment negative

Builders FirstSource peers

Builders FirstSource’s 3 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
HDHome Depot−0.1%Buying9.2% below
LOWLowe's Companies+0.3%Buying6.3% below
FNDFloor & Decor+0.6%Accumulation16.1% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

Builders FirstSource stock FAQ

What is Builders FirstSource’s market cap?

Builders FirstSource’s market cap is $6.24B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $58.01, with 107.6M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 64.3.

What is the Builders FirstSource stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Builders FirstSource is $80.62, +39.0% from the last close. Of the 17 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 9 rate it a buy, 8 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Builders FirstSource stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Builders FirstSource is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $58.01 is 37.7% below Gekko Fair Value of $93.08. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Builders FirstSource report earnings next?

Builders FirstSource is expected to report on Oct 29, 2026, before the market opens (30 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.09 per share on revenue of $3.77B. Builders FirstSource beat the earnings estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports, moving 3.5% on average across the report.

What is Builders FirstSource’s 52-week high and low?

Builders FirstSource’s 52-week high is $131.50 and its 52-week low is $56.56; it closed at $58.01 on Sep 28, 2026, −50.4% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $214.70 on Mar 21, 2024.

Is Builders FirstSource stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 4 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value, smart money and earnings risk), 1 as mixed (seasonality) and 1 as a headwind (trend). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

Is there unusual options activity in Builders FirstSource?

Gekko flagged 1 unusual options signal in Builders FirstSource over the last 30 days, with $325K of flagged premium in calls and $0 in puts. The latest, bullish flow, was on Sep 23, 2026 with $325K in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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