Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for AMBP in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every AMBP insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open AMBP in Gekko
NYSE: AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$4.30−0.10 (−2.3%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryOct 12 closeThis week's attention centers on analyst views following Ardagh Metal Packaging's strong second quarter, which featured revenue of $1.71 billion and increased net income. Wells Fargo maintained a Hold rating with a $5.00 price target, while UBS trimmed its target to $4.50 from $5 and kept a Neutral stance. Citi reiterated a Buy rating with a $6.00 price target, above consensus, also citing the strong quarterly results. A separate note covered balance sheet details as of December 31, 2025.
AMBP closed at $4.30, down 2.3% on the day, with a one-month return of -11.2% and a one-year return of 17.2%. The price sits between its 50-day average of $4.84 and 200-day average of $4.45. The GekkoIndex reads 69.6, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone. Gekko Fair Value stands at $7.62, putting price 43.6% below that level.
Ardagh Metal Packaging reports earnings on 22 October 2026, before the open, 10 days away and within a typical 20-trading-day holding period; its last reaction to results was 5.9%, against an average absolute reaction of 10.3% across prior quarters. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the current windows. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 1.4% gain over 5 years, rising in 1 of those years. Analyst consensus across 7 firms shows 1 buy, 5 hold and 1 sell, with a consensus target of $5.07, implying 17.9% upside from current levels.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Ardagh Metal Packaging price vs fair value
Close $4.30200-day averageGekko Fair Value $7.62
Ardagh Metal Packaging quick facts
- Market cap
- $2.57B
- P/E ratio
- 89.2
- Forward P/E
- 14.8
- EPS, TTM
- $0.05
- Revenue, TTM
- $5.99B
- Profit margin
- 0.7%
- Dividend yield
- 9.09%
- Beta
- 0.53
- Volume
- 1.92M avg 2.06M
- 1-year return
- +17.2%
- Typical daily move
- ±2.7%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±7.2%
- 50-day average
- $4.84
- 200-day average
- $4.45
- Next earnings
- Oct 22 before open
- Shares outstanding
- 597.7M
Ardagh Metal Packaging swing-trade checklist
Ardagh Metal Packaging scores 2 supportive, 2 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
2 supportive2 mixed1 headwind
- Trendmixed
Averages disagree
Close $4.30 sits between the 50-day ($4.84) and 200-day ($4.45) averages, or the averages disagree.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
69.6, Accumulation
Reading 69.6 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
43.6% below
Price is 43.6% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 10 days
Reports on Oct 22, 2026, 10 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitymixed
+1.4% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +1.4% over 5 years, rising in 1 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Ardagh Metal Packaging stock chart and price history
Ardagh Metal Packaging closed at $4.30 on Oct 12, 2026, +17.2% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $3.29 to $5.47.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −11.2%
- 3 months
- −2.7%
- 6 months
- +3.6%
- 1 year
- +17.2%
The full AMBP chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open AMBP in Gekko
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About Ardagh Metal Packaging
Ardagh Metal Packaging produces metal cans used to package drinks such as beer, wine, soft drinks, sparkling water, teas, energy drinks, flavored malt beverages and flavored alcoholic beverages. Beverage producers across several continents rely on it for this kind of container, and can manufacturing is the core activity the company is recognized for. Its work spans facilities in Europe, North America and Brazil, allowing it to serve drink makers in those markets.
The business sells directly to companies that bottle and distribute beverages, turning raw material into finished cans for their products. It functions within a larger corporate family, sitting as a subsidiary beneath Ardagh Group S.A., which owns and oversees the packaging operation.
Ardagh Metal Packaging dates back to 1932 and keeps its headquarters in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. Investors can find its stock listed on the NYSE under the ticker AMBP.
- Listed
- NYSE
- Sector
- Process industries
- Industry
- Containers/Packaging
- Website
- ardaghmetalpackaging.com
Ardagh Metal Packaging GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Ardagh Metal Packaging’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 69.6, in the Accumulation zone, up 1.8 points over five sessions.
69.6Accumulation
Up 1.8 points over five sessions.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 48 | −1.4% | −2.7% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 209 | +0.9% | +2.4% | ||
| Neutral | 376 | +0.4% | +1.3% | ||
| Distribution | 48 | −1.4% | −1.8% | ||
| Selling | 1 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average AMBP share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the AMBP price, zone by zone.Track AMBP in Gekko
Is Ardagh Metal Packaging stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Ardagh Metal Packaging trades 43.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $7.62, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Ardagh Metal Packaging shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$7.62
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026
43.6% Undervalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 0.4% above the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open AMBP in Gekko
Ardagh Metal Packaging insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Ardagh Metal Packaging, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in AMBP were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for AMBP, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open AMBP in Gekko
Buybacks
Ardagh Metal Packaging has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Dec 31, 2025
- $289.0M
- As a share of market cap
- 11.24%
From company filings.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Mar 31
0of the funds Gekko tracks hold AMBP.
0added0opened0trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
Ardagh Metal Packaging earnings: next date and track record
Ardagh Metal Packaging reports on Oct 22, 2026, before the open (10 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Oct 22, 2026
Expected before the open, 10 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.08
- Revenue estimate
- $1.53B
6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±10.3%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Feb 26, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMP) reported strong 2025 results driven by >3% shipments growth, favorable product mix (notably energy drinks in North America) and operational cost control. Adjusted EBITDA rose 10% year-over-year to $739 million (significantly above initial guidance), and Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $166 million exceeded the guidance range. AMP completed a $1.3 billion green bond refinancing in December, improving liquidity (~$964 million) and lengthening maturities. Management reiterated confidence in continued beverage-can market share gains across regions and highlighted industry tightness and capacity additions in Europe (U.K., Spain) and Brazil. For 2026 AMP guided adjusted EBITDA of $750–$775 million and Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $160–$170 million, while forecasting modestly higher CapEx (slightly above $200 million) and steady lease principal repayments (~$115 million). Management acknowledged headwinds from metal/aluminum supply disruptions (rolling mill issues, Midwest premium) causing some non-recovered operational costs, and weather-related disruptions in North America in January, but emphasized operational efficiencies and cost savings to offset near-term challenges.
- Guidance
- Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026: $750 million to $775 million. Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA: $160 million to $170 million. 2026 approximate cash items: total CapEx slightly above $200 million (including growth investments); lease principal repayments ~ $115 million; cash interest ~ $220 million; cash tax a little over $30 million; small working capital outflow. Ordinary quarterly dividend unchanged at $0.10 per share.
- Risks flagged
- Metal/aluminum supply disruption (rolling mill issues, elevated Midwest premium) leading to non-recovered freight and operational costs; weather-related facility/customer disruptions (U.S. winter); elevated net leverage (net leverage 5.3x) following refinancing and preferred share redemption; dependence on customer footprint/contract resets in North America; commodity price volatility (LME/Midwest spreads) which could affect pass-through dynamics and timing of metal cost recovery.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | $0.03 est $0.02 | $1.35B est $1.29B | +5.9% |
| Oct 31, 2025 | $0.08 est $0.07 | — | −4.5% |
| Jul 23, 2025 | $0.08 est $0.07 | $1.46B est $1.39B | −15.8% |
| Apr 23, 2025 | $0.02 est $0.01 | $1.27B est $1.17B | +29.5% |
| Feb 20, 2025 | −$0.01 est $0.02 | — | +3.4% |
| Oct 24, 2024 | $0.08 est $0.07 | $1.31B est $1.16B | −11.5% |
| Jul 25, 2024 | $0.06 est $0.05 | $1.26B est $1.32B | −2.9% |
| Apr 25, 2024 | $0.01 est $0.01 | $1.14B est $1.15B | +8.6% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Ardagh Metal Packaging stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Ardagh Metal Packaging is $5.07, +17.9% from the last close, from 7 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$5.07consensus 12-month target, +17.9% from the last close
Now $4.30Avg $5.07
Low $4.50High $6
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 7 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8 | Wells Fargo | $5 | +16.3% |
| Oct 7 | Wells Fargo | $5 | +16.3% |
| Oct 5 | UBS | $4.50 | +4.7% |
| Oct 5 | Bank of America Securities | $4.80 | +11.6% |
| Oct 2 | Citi | $6 | +39.5% |
+2.4%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+1.4%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.7%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Ardagh Metal Packaging seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Ardagh Metal Packaging averaged +1.4% across the last 5 years, rising in 1 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +0.3% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −0.4% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +0.7% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +1.4% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +4.2% | 2 of 5 |
For scale, AMBP’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 7.2%.
Ardagh Metal Packaging market cap and key statistics
Ardagh Metal Packaging’s market cap is $2.57B, with a P/E ratio of 89.2 and revenue of $5.99B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $2.57B
- P/E ratio
- 89.2
- Forward P/E
- 14.8
- EPS, TTM
- $0.05
- Gekko Fair Value
- $7.62
Trading
- Volume
- 1.92M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 2.06M
- 52-week high
- $5.47
- 52-week low
- $3.29
- Shares outstanding
- 597.7M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $5.99B
- Profit margin
- 0.7%
- Return on equity
- -63.6%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +75.0%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.53
- Typical daily move
- ±2.7%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±7.2%
- Dividend yield
- 9.09%
Ardagh Metal Packaging stock news this week
Coverage of Ardagh Metal Packaging this week reads negative: 1 positive, 1 neutral and 2 negative headlines.
- Wells Fargo keeps Hold on Ardagh Metal Packaging stockAD HOC NEWS, Oct 8
- UBS Adjusts Ardagh Metal Packaging Price Target to $4.50 From $5, Maintains Neutral RatingMoomoo, Oct 5
- Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (7JZ.HM) balance sheetYahoo Finance UK, Oct 5
- Citi reiterates Buy for Ardagh Metal Packaging stockAD HOC NEWS, Oct 5
Ardagh Metal Packaging peers
Ardagh Metal Packaging’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| SWSmurfit WestRock | Accumulation | 17.0% below |
| PKGPackaging Corporation of America | Accumulation | 4.3% above |
| AMCRAmcor | Accumulation | 39.0% below |
| BALLBall | Neutral | 11.8% above |
| CCKCrown | Accumulation | 40.7% below |
| OCOwens Corning | Buying | 13.9% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Ardagh Metal Packaging stock FAQ
What is Ardagh Metal Packaging’s market cap?
Ardagh Metal Packaging’s market cap is $2.57B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $4.30, with 597.7M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 89.2.
What is the Ardagh Metal Packaging stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Ardagh Metal Packaging is $5.07, +17.9% from the last close. Of the 7 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 1 rate it a buy, 5 a hold and 1 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Ardagh Metal Packaging stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Ardagh Metal Packaging is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $4.30 is 43.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $7.62. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Ardagh Metal Packaging report earnings next?
Ardagh Metal Packaging is expected to report on Oct 22, 2026, before the market opens (10 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.08 per share on revenue of $1.53B. Ardagh Metal Packaging beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 10.3% on average across the report.
What is Ardagh Metal Packaging’s 52-week high and low?
Ardagh Metal Packaging’s 52-week high is $5.47 and its 52-week low is $3.29; it closed at $4.30 on Oct 12, 2026, +17.2% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $10.38 on Oct 12, 2021.
Is Ardagh Metal Packaging stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex and fair value), 2 as mixed (trend and seasonality) and 1 as a headwind (earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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