Ambev (ABEV) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Nov 4 close

$2.76+0.12 (+4.5%)

Gekko Brief

AI summaryNov 4 close

Ambev's week centered on its Q3 2026 results, released 29 October, and the analyst reaction that followed. The company reported net revenue growth of 7.6%, normalized EBITDA up 8.9% with 40bps margin expansion, and normalized EPS growth of 15.4%, with EPS matching the $0.05 estimate, though revenue of $4.17 billion fell short of consensus and volumes declined year over year. Bank of America downgraded the stock from Neutral to Underperform citing weakening beer demand and cost pressures, while Wall Street Zen moved it to Hold from Buy; at least one other analyst also cut to Hold, even as another commentary argued the post-election selloff created a more compelling entry point.

Shares closed at $2.76, up 4.5% on the day but down 14.3% over one month and 19.5% over six months, sitting below both the 50-day ($3.01) and 200-day ($3.02) averages, with the 50-day under the 200-day. The GekkoIndex reads 66.2, placing ABEV in the Accumulation zone, down 2.9 over five days. Price sits 30.3% below the $3.96 Gekko Fair Value estimate.

The next earnings report is scheduled for 11 February 2027, 98 days out, placing it outside a typical 20-trading-day holding window. No insider, Congress or unusual options activity appears in their respective windows. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 0.3% return over 5 years, rising in 3 of them. Consensus among 5 firms stands at 1 buy, 2 hold and 2 sell, with a consensus target of $3.20.

Written by AI from the Nov 4, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

Ambev price vs fair value

$3.96$2.76Nov ’25May ’26Nov ’26
Close $2.76200-day averageGekko Fair Value $3.96

Ambev quick facts

Market cap
$42.55B
P/E ratio
14.2
Forward P/E
12.5
EPS, TTM
$0.19
Revenue, TTM
$89.02B
Profit margin
17.7%
Dividend yield
5.04%
Beta
0.22
Volume
20.69M avg 26.19M
1-year return
+17.4%
Typical daily move
±4.4%
Typical 20-day move
±5.4%
50-day average
$3.01
200-day average
$3.02
Next earnings
Feb 11
Shares outstanding
15.42B
52-week range
$2.28$3.45

Ambev swing-trade checklist

Ambev scores 4 supportive, 0 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

4 supportive0 mixed1 headwind

  • Trendheadwind

    Below 50 and 200-day

    Close $2.76 is below the 50-day ($3.01) and 200-day ($3.02) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    66.2, Accumulation

    Reading 66.2 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    30.3% below

    Price is 30.3% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 98 days

    Next report Feb 11, 2027, 98 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +0.3% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +0.3% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Ambev stock chart and price history

Ambev closed at $2.76 on Nov 4, 2026, +17.4% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $2.28 to $3.45.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Ambev share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$2.50$3.00$3.50DecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct2.76

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−14.3%
3 months
−8.3%
6 months
−19.5%
1 year
+17.4%
The full ABEV chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open ABEV in Gekko

Follow Ambev through every session

Put ABEV on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

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About Ambev

Ambev produces and sells a broad line of drinks, along with some food items, throughout the Americas. Beer forms a large part of its business, with labels ranging from Skol, Brahma and Antarctica to global names such as Corona, Stella Artois, Budweiser and Michelob Ultra. Alongside beer, it offers non-alcoholic choices like bottled water, juices, iced tea, energy drinks and sodas under brands including Guaraná Antarctica, Gatorade, Pepsi and Lipton Iced Tea.

Its business is split into four regional units covering Brazil, Central America together with the Caribbean, the rest of South America, and Canada. Getting goods to market relies on a combination of Ambev's own delivery operations and outside distribution partners. Interbrew International B.V. holds a controlling interest in the company, making Ambev part of that larger corporate structure.

Ambev's origins go back to 1885, and its main offices sit in São Paulo, Brazil. Its stock trades under the ticker ABEV.

Sector
Consumer non-durables
Website
ambev.com.br

Ambev GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Ambev’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 66.2, in the Accumulation zone, down 2.9 points over five sessions.

010066.2Accumulation

Down 2.9 points over five sessions.

Reading for Nov 4, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying25+1.2%+1.3%+3.2%+9.6%
Accumulation (current zone)245+0.5%+1.0%+0.4%+1.4%
Neutral320−0.2%−0.1%+1.7%+3.1%
Distribution60+0.7%+1.6%+0.5%+4.5%
Selling0Not available

Average ABEV share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.0% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the ABEV price, zone by zone.Track ABEV in Gekko

Is Ambev stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Ambev trades 30.3% below Gekko Fair Value of $3.96, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Ambev shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$3.96

Gekko Fair Value, Nov 4, 2026

30.3% Undervalued

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 33.7% below the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$4$3Aug 2026SepOctNov 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open ABEV in Gekko

Ambev insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Ambev, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for ABEV in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every ABEV insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open ABEV in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in ABEV were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for ABEV, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open ABEV in Gekko

Ambev earnings: next date and track record

Ambev reports on Feb 11, 2027 (98 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports.

4 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±6.1%average move across the report
6 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+11.6%Feb ’25+1.2%May ’25−5.2%Jul ’25+6.0%Oct ’25+2.0%Feb ’26+18.3%May ’26+0.3%Jul ’26−4.3%Oct ’26

Last earnings call, Oct 29, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Ambev reported Q3 2026 total volume growth of 0.8%, net revenue growth of 7.6%, and normalized EBITDA increase of 8.9% with 40bps margin expansion. Normalized EPS grew 15.4% in the quarter. Year-to-date, net revenue grew 7.3% ahead of inflation, EBITDA up 9.3%, and EPS up 12.3%. Brazil NAB showed mid-single digit volume growth with ~200bps margin expansion YTD. Market investments grew double digits organically.
Guidance
Management expressed confidence in sustaining performance through consistent execution of their three-pillar growth strategy. No specific financial targets were provided, but they emphasized continued double-digit market investment growth and pursuing net revenue ahead of inflation with disciplined margin conversion.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Oct 29, 2026$0.05
est $0.05
0.0%$4.16B
est $4.19B
−0.8%−4.3%
Jul 30, 2026$0.04
est $0.04
0.0%$3.97B
est $4.05B
−1.9%+0.3%
May 5, 2026$0.05
est $0.05
0.0%$4.56B
est $4.38B
+4.2%+18.3%
Feb 12, 2026$0.28
est $0.05
+445.8%$5.23B
est $4.62B
+13.1%+2.0%
Oct 30, 2025$0.04
est $0.04
+12.9%$3.91B
est $4.77B
−18.1%+6.0%
Jul 31, 2025$0.18
est $0.03
+429.4%$3.70B
est $4.16B
−11.0%−5.2%
May 8, 2025$0.04
est $0.04
0.0%$3.96B
est $3.83B
+3.4%+1.2%
Feb 26, 2025$0.05
est $0.05
+5.8%$4.36B
est $3.82B
+14.2%+11.6%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Ambev stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Ambev is $3.20, +15.8% from the last close, from 5 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$3.20consensus 12-month target, +15.8% from the last close
Low $2.85High $4
Buy1
Hold2
Sell2

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 5 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Oct 30Evercore ISIBuy, maintained$4+44.9%
Oct 29BarclaysHold, maintained$3+8.7%
Oct 15BernsteinHold, maintained$3.55+28.6%
Oct 7Bank of America SecuritiesSell, downgraded$3.30+19.6%
Aug 11UBSSell, maintained$2.85+3.3%
+0.4%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+0.3%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±4.4%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Ambev seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Nov 4, Ambev averaged +0.3% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

−10.2%2021−7.1%2022+4.4%2023+4.5%2024+9.6%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days0.0%3 of 5
Next 10 trading days−1.1%2 of 5
Next 15 trading days−2.0%2 of 5
Next 20 trading days+0.3%3 of 5
Next 30 trading days−2.4%2 of 5

For scale, ABEV’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 5.4%.

Ambev market cap and key statistics

Ambev’s market cap is $42.55B, with a P/E ratio of 14.2 and revenue of $89.02B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$42.55B
P/E ratio
14.2
Forward P/E
12.5
EPS, TTM
$0.19
Gekko Fair Value
$3.96

Trading

Volume
20.69M
Avg volume, 20 days
26.19M
52-week high
$3.45
52-week low
$2.28
Shares outstanding
15.42B

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$89.02B
Profit margin
17.7%
Return on equity
17.6%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
−9.4%

Risk and income

Beta
0.22
Typical daily move
±4.4%
Typical 20-day move
±5.4%
Dividend yield
5.04%

Ambev stock news this week

Coverage of Ambev this week reads neutral: 4 positive, 7 neutral and 3 negative headlines.

News sentiment neutral

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Ambev stock FAQ

What is Ambev’s market cap?

Ambev’s market cap is $42.55B at the Nov 4, 2026 close of $2.76, with 15.42B shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 14.2.

What is the Ambev stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Ambev is $3.20, +15.8% from the last close. Of the 5 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 1 rate it a buy, 2 a hold and 2 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Ambev stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Ambev is undervalued: the Nov 4, 2026 close of $2.76 is 30.3% below Gekko Fair Value of $3.96. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Ambev report earnings next?

Ambev is expected to report on Feb 11, 2027 (98 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.06 per share on revenue of $4.86B. Ambev beat the earnings estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports, moving 6.1% on average across the report.

What is Ambev’s 52-week high and low?

Ambev’s 52-week high is $3.45 and its 52-week low is $2.28; it closed at $2.76 on Nov 4, 2026, +17.4% over the past year.

Is Ambev stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 4 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value, earnings risk and seasonality) and 1 as a headwind (trend). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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