Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for VVV in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every VVV insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open VVV in Gekko
NYSE: VVV
Valvoline (VVV) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$30.16−0.11 (−0.4%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryOct 12 closeValvoline's week centers on third-quarter fiscal 2026 results and the market reaction to them. The company reported systemwide store sales crossing $1 billion for the first time, with systemwide same-store sales up 8% (or ~8%, per the earnings-call summary) and net sales of $545 million, up 24% year-over-year. Despite the strong print, Citi cut its price target from USD 41.00 to USD 34.00 while maintaining a Neutral rating, citing more conservative gross-margin assumptions. Separately, Valvoline authorized an additional $175 million share buyback, bringing total authorization to $500 million, and announced plans for a new service center in San Antonio.
Shares closed at $30.16, down 0.4%, sitting below both the 50-day average of $31.63 and the 200-day average of $34.26, with the 50-day below the 200-day. Over the past month the stock is down 1.3%, and three months show a 22.4% decline. The GekkoIndex reads 59.1, placing it in the Neutral zone, while Gekko Fair Value stands at $36.27, putting price 16.8% below that level.
The next earnings date is 18 November 2026, 36 days out, placing it outside a typical 20-trading-day holding window. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in their respective tracking windows. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 4.2% gain over 5 years, rising in 3 of those years. Analyst consensus across 12 firms shows 8 buy and 4 hold ratings, with a consensus target of $43.12.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Valvoline price vs fair value
Close $30.16200-day averageGekko Fair Value $36.27
Valvoline quick facts
- Market cap
- $3.85B
- P/E ratio
- 38.1
- Forward P/E
- 13.5
- EPS, TTM
- $0.81
- Revenue, TTM
- $1.96B
- Profit margin
- 5.2%
- Dividend yield
- —
- Beta
- 1.04
- Volume
- 2.91M avg 3.30M
- 1-year return
- −11.3%
- Typical daily move
- ±3.1%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±5.4%
- 50-day average
- $31.63
- 200-day average
- $34.26
- Next earnings
- Nov 18 before open
- Shares outstanding
- 127.5M
Valvoline swing-trade checklist
Valvoline scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive1 mixed1 headwind
- Trendheadwind
Below 50 and 200-day
Close $30.16 is below the 50-day ($31.63) and 200-day ($34.26) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexmixed
59.1, Neutral
Reading 59.1 is in the Neutral zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
16.8% below
Price is 16.8% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 37 days
Next report Nov 18, 2026, 37 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+4.2% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +4.2% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Valvoline stock chart and price history
Valvoline closed at $30.16 on Oct 12, 2026, −11.3% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $26.21 to $41.08.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −1.3%
- 3 months
- −22.4%
- 6 months
- −9.5%
- 1 year
- −11.3%
The full VVV chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open VVV in Gekko
Follow Valvoline through every session
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About Valvoline
Valvoline makes and sells engine and vehicle care products, along with related maintenance services, serving everyday drivers, dealerships, independent repair shops and other quick-lube operators. The company is widely recognized for its Valvoline Instant Oil Change centers, and its product range covers lubricants for cars, light trucks and heavy equipment, OEM-grade antifreeze and coolants, brake and power steering fluids, specialty coatings, filters, batteries, wiper parts, bulbs, belts and drain plugs.
The business runs through two segments, Retail Services and Global Products. On the services side, it operates and franchises close to 1,600 quick-lube locations, branded as Valvoline Instant Oil Change in the United States and Great Canadian Oil Change in Canada, as of the end of September 2021. Its products also reach customers indirectly through distributors and licensed partners, with operations extending across North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia-Pacific and Latin America.
The company traces its founding back to 1866 and runs its administrative operations out of Lexington, Kentucky. Its shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker VVV.
- Listed
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer services
- Industry
- Other consumer services
- Website
- valvoline.com
Valvoline GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Valvoline’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 59.1, in the Neutral zone, up 0.8 points over five sessions.
59.1Neutral
Up 0.8 points over five sessions.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 52 | +0.2% | −3.0% | ||
| Accumulation | 266 | 0.0% | −0.1% | ||
| Neutral (current zone) | 330 | −0.2% | −0.3% | ||
| Distribution | 31 | +1.2% | 0.0% | ||
| Selling | 3 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average VVV share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the VVV price, zone by zone.Track VVV in Gekko
Is Valvoline stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Valvoline trades 16.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $36.27, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Valvoline shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$36.27
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026
16.8% Undervalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 10.5% below the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open VVV in Gekko
Valvoline insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Valvoline, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in VVV were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for VVV, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open VVV in Gekko
Buybacks
Valvoline has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Mar 31, 2025
- $31.10M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.81%
From company filings.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
1of the funds Gekko tracks holds VVV.
0added1opened0trimmed0sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
Valvoline earnings: next date and track record
Valvoline reports on Nov 18, 2026, before the open (37 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 18, 2026
Expected before the open, 37 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.42
- Revenue estimate
- $568.2M
6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±6.7%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Aug 5, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Valvoline reported a solid Q3 FY2026 with top-line growth and operating performance largely in line with management expectations. System-wide store sales increased 19% (crossing $1 billion in a quarter for the first time) and system-wide same-store sales rose ~8%. Net sales were $545 million, up 24% year-over-year, with EBITDA growing faster than sales and improved SG&A leverage. Gross margin rate was ~40%, down ~50 basis points year-over-year; excluding new-store depreciation, gross margin would have improved slightly. Management highlighted an industry-wide Group III base oil supply constraint—driven by disruption at the Strait of Hormuz—that has elevated finished lubricant costs and is expected to persist for months after any reopening. Valvoline says it has an advantaged supply relationship, is taking pricing actions (company and franchise) to protect gross profit dollars, and expects price/cost dynamics to be neutralized by Q4 if current assumptions hold. Breeze integration is tracking at or ahead of expectations with early synergy capture. Management reaffirmed the resilience of the business model and continued marketing and growth investments to capture potential share during competitor supply disruptions.
- Guidance
- - Raised full-year net sales midpoint from $2.05B to $2.1B (implied $25M increase). - Q4 implied EBITDA margin in the mid-20s (management referenced ~25% range) with an implied 300–400 bps sequential margin compression at the midpoint driven primarily by product cost increases. - Management expects finished lubricant costs could be ~60% above prior levels and the cost pressure could translate to roughly $5–$7 incremental cost per oil change; they have taken and will continue to take pricing action to offset these costs. - Implied Q4 system-wide same-store sales ~8–10% (management commentary).
- Risks flagged
- - Continued Group III base oil supply constraints tied to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and extended global supply chain rebuild timelines (management cites 4–6 months after full reopening). - Elevated finished lubricant costs and margin compression risk if pricing can't fully offset higher supplier costs or if consumer elasticity reduces transactions. - Macro uncertainty and dynamic market conditions that could affect pricing pass-through, franchisee pricing actions, and competitor behavior. - Potential allocation or shortages faced by smaller competitors could create volatility in demand and complicate forecasting.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | $0.57 est $0.50 | $544.6M est $543.2M | −9.3% |
| May 7, 2026 | $0.35 est $0.34 | $503.8M est $495.7M | +4.2% |
| Feb 4, 2026 | $0.37 est $0.34 | $461.8M est $461.6M | +10.4% |
| Nov 19, 2025 | $0.45 est $0.47 | $453.8M est $454.4M | −3.9% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | $0.47 est $0.46 | $439.0M est $455.9M | +6.9% |
| May 8, 2025 | $0.34 est $0.36 | $403.2M est $438.7M | −4.5% |
| Feb 6, 2025 | $0.73 est $0.28 | $414.3M est $399.8M | +5.0% |
| Nov 19, 2024 | $0.46 est $0.42 | $435.5M est $432.8M | −9.1% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Valvoline stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Valvoline is $43.12, +43.0% from the last close, from 12 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$43.12consensus 12-month target, +43.0% from the last close
Now $30.16Avg $43.12
Low $34High $49
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 12 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 | Barclays | $39 | +29.3% |
| Oct 2 | Citi | $34 | +12.7% |
| Oct 1 | Citi | $34 | +12.7% |
| Sep 30 | RBC Capital | $49 | +62.5% |
| Sep 11 | RBC Capital | $49 | +62.5% |
−0.3%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+4.2%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.1%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Valvoline seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Valvoline averaged +4.2% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +4.7% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +3.6% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +2.7% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +4.2% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +7.7% | 3 of 5 |
For scale, VVV’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 5.4%.
Valvoline market cap and key statistics
Valvoline’s market cap is $3.85B, with a P/E ratio of 38.1 and revenue of $1.96B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $3.85B
- P/E ratio
- 38.1
- Forward P/E
- 13.5
- EPS, TTM
- $0.81
- Gekko Fair Value
- $36.27
Trading
- Volume
- 2.91M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 3.30M
- 52-week high
- $41.08
- 52-week low
- $26.21
- Shares outstanding
- 127.5M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $1.96B
- Profit margin
- 5.2%
- Return on equity
- 28.4%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +15.7%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 1.04
- Typical daily move
- ±3.1%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±5.4%
Valvoline stock news this week
Coverage of Valvoline this week reads positive: 4 positive, 1 neutral and 1 negative headlines.
- Diversified Management Inc. Acquires New Holdings in Valvoline $VVVMarketBeat, Oct 9
- Valvoline Reports Q3 2026 Results: Full Earnings Call TranscriptBenzinga, Oct 8
- Valvoline Inc Tokenized Stock (Coinbase) price today, VVVc to USD live price, marketcap and chartCoinMarketCap, Oct 7
- Citi cuts target for Valvoline stock from USD 41.00 to USD 34.00AD HOC NEWS, Oct 7
- Valvoline Plans New San Antonio Service CenterWhatNow, Oct 5
- Valvoline authorizes USD 175 million buyback of Valvoline stockAD HOC NEWS, Oct 5
Valvoline peers
Valvoline’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| BKNGBooking | Accumulation | 28.5% below |
| EXPEExpedia | Neutral | 2.6% below |
| SCIService Corporation International | Accumulation | 2.1% above |
| LTHLife Time | Accumulation | 15.7% below |
| ANDGAndersen | Neutral | 8.0% below |
| HRBH&R Block | Neutral | 38.0% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Valvoline stock FAQ
What is Valvoline’s market cap?
Valvoline’s market cap is $3.85B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $30.16, with 127.5M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 38.1.
What is the Valvoline stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Valvoline is $43.12, +43.0% from the last close. Of the 12 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 8 rate it a buy, 4 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Valvoline stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Valvoline is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $30.16 is 16.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $36.27. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Valvoline report earnings next?
Valvoline is expected to report on Nov 18, 2026, before the market opens (37 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.42 per share on revenue of $568.2M. Valvoline beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 6.7% on average across the report.
What is Valvoline’s 52-week high and low?
Valvoline’s 52-week high is $41.08 and its 52-week low is $26.21; it closed at $30.16 on Oct 12, 2026, −11.3% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $48.27 on Jul 17, 2024.
Is Valvoline stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (fair value, earnings risk and seasonality), 1 as mixed (gekkoindex) and 1 as a headwind (trend). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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