Nov 4 close
Vistra shares drop sharply this week after Democrats secured congressional majorities and Gina Hinojosa won the Texas governorship, with investors reassessing regulatory risk for merchant power generators alongside peer Constellation Energy. KeyCorp and KeyBanc Capital Markets both downgraded the stock from Overweight to Sector Weight, and shares fell 14.7% to $119.04 on the KeyCorp move. Separately, Vistra completed its acquisition of the Cogentrix Natural Gas Portfolio, adding 10 natural gas generation facilities with 5,500 MW of capacity from Quantum Capital Group, while some analysts cautioned against an "excessive knee-jerk" reaction to the election outcome.
Vistra closes at $120.29, down 13.8%, sitting below both its 50-day average of $144.75 and 200-day average of $153.06, with one-month return at -25.1% and one-year return at -37.7%. The GekkoIndex reads 69.5, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone, while price sits 33.3% below Gekko Fair Value of $180.24.
Vistra reports earnings on 6 November 2026, just tomorrow, a period that has produced an average absolute reaction of 4.6% historically, with 4 beats in the last 8 quarters. Over the last 90 days, insiders made 3 open-market purchases totaling $1,173,069, and Congress recorded 1 buy and 0 sales. Seasonality from this point has averaged +8.4% over the next 20 trading days across 5 years, rising in 4 of them. Consensus among 17 analysts remains at Buy, with a target of $205.41.
Written by AI from the Nov 4, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Vistra scores 4 supportive, 0 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
4 supportive0 mixed2 headwinds
Below 50 and 200-day
Close $120.29 is below the 50-day ($144.75) and 200-day ($153.06) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.
See the chart69.5, Accumulation
Reading 69.5 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex33.3% below
Price is 33.3% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair valueLeans bullish
Last 90 days: 3 open-market insider purchases; Congress 1 buy / 0 sales.
See smart moneyReports tomorrow
Reports on Nov 6, 2026, tomorrow — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings+8.4% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +8.4% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
See seasonalityA description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Vistra closed at $120.29 on Nov 4, 2026, −37.7% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $117.27 to $196.80.
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Put VST on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.
Vistra supplies electricity and natural gas to homes, businesses and industrial users, while also generating power on a large scale. It serves customers across 20 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, and its work spans wholesale energy trading, fuel production, fuel logistics and the management of commodity risk. The company is recognized for the breadth of its generation fleet, which draws on natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar and battery storage.
Its operations are divided into six segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset and Asset Closure. Through these, Vistra reaches roughly 4.3 million customers and runs generation capacity of about 38,700 megawatts, combining retail supply with large-scale power production and related energy services.
The company traces its history back to 1882 and took the Vistra Corp. name in July 2020, having previously operated as Vistra Energy Corp. It is headquartered in Irving, Texas, and its shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker VST.
Vistra’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 69.5, in the Accumulation zone, up 9.1 points over five sessions.
Up 9.1 points over five sessions.
Reading for Nov 4, 2026
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 7 | Too few readings yet | |||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 230 | +1.7% | +4.8% | ||
| Neutral | 389 | +0.5% | +4.0% | ||
| Distribution | 60 | +2.7% | +11.5% | ||
| Selling | 11 | +5.8% | +19.2% | ||
Average VST share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.0% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
Vistra trades 33.3% below Gekko Fair Value of $180.24, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Vistra shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$180.24
Gekko Fair Value, Nov 4, 2026
33.3% Undervalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 29.3% below the estimate.
Insiders filed 3 open-market purchases in Vistra worth $1.17M, and members of Congress disclosed 1 purchase and 0 sales, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
$1.17Min 3 open-market purchases
| Filed | Insider | Type | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2 | BURKE JAMES A director, officer: President and CEO | Purchase | $604K |
| Sep 2 | BURKE JAMES A director, officer: President and CEO | Purchase | $299K |
| Aug 24 | BURKE JAMES A director, officer: President and CEO | Purchase | $270K |
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
1trade disclosed: 1 purchase and 0 sales.
| Member | Amount | Disclosed |
|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna House, CA, purchase | $1,001 - $15,000 | Oct 9 traded Sep 25 |
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Vistra has been buying back its own shares.
From company filings.
2of the funds Gekko tracks hold VST.
Vistra reports on Nov 6, 2026 (tomorrow), and beat the EPS estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports.
Nov 6, 2026
Tomorrow
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | $1.80 est $1.54 | $4.02B est $5.46B | +1.1% |
| May 7, 2026 | $2.87 est $1.32 | $5.64B est $5.22B | −6.7% |
| Feb 26, 2026 | $0.54 est $2.31 | $4.58B est $5.79B | −0.8% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | $1.75 est $2.08 | $4.97B est $6.11B | +0.9% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | $0.81 est $0.88 | $4.25B est $4.74B | −1.9% |
| May 8, 2025 | −$0.93 est $0.54 | $5.17B est $4.55B | −2.7% |
| Feb 27, 2025 | $1.14 est $0.85 | $7.36B est $3.91B | −9.8% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | $5.25 est $1.26 | $5.53B est $5.01B | +12.5% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Vistra is $205.41, +70.8% from the last close, from 17 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 17 firms.
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | Bank of America Securities | $194 | +61.3% |
| Oct 30 | Morgan Stanley | $224 | +86.2% |
| Oct 29 | J.P. Morgan | $228 | +89.5% |
| Oct 28 | Wells Fargo | $198 | +64.6% |
| Oct 28 | Scotiabank | $189 | +57.1% |
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Over the next 20 trading days from Nov 4, Vistra averaged +8.4% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +5.7% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +5.1% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +7.2% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +8.4% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +6.0% | 4 of 5 |
For scale, VST’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 6.9%.
Vistra’s market cap is $40.37B, with a P/E ratio of 22.7 and revenue of $19.21B over the last twelve months.
Coverage of Vistra this week reads positive: 13 positive, 4 neutral and 4 negative headlines.
Vistra’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| NEENextEra Energy | Distribution | 15.3% below |
| SOSouthern | Neutral | 21.9% above |
| DUKDuke Energy | Neutral | 24.2% above |
| CEGConstellation Energy | Accumulation | 1.1% below |
| AEPAmerican Electric Power | Neutral | 9.3% above |
| DDominion Energy | Distribution | 5.3% above |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Vistra’s market cap is $40.37B at the Nov 4, 2026 close of $120.29, with 335.6M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 22.7.
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Vistra is $205.41, +70.8% from the last close. Of the 17 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 17 rate it a buy, 0 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
On Gekko’s estimate Vistra is undervalued: the Nov 4, 2026 close of $120.29 is 33.3% below Gekko Fair Value of $180.24. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
Vistra is expected to report on Nov 6, 2026 (tomorrow). Analysts expect earnings of $2.98 per share on revenue of $6.03B. Vistra beat the earnings estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports, moving 4.6% on average across the report.
Vistra’s 52-week high is $196.80 and its 52-week low is $117.27; it closed at $120.29 on Nov 4, 2026, −37.7% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $219.82 on Sep 22, 2025.
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 4 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value, smart money and seasonality) and 2 as headwinds (trend and earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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