Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for TOL in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every TOL insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open TOL in Gekko
NYSE: TOL
Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Sep 28 close
$136.51−0.83 (−0.6%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryThis week's news around Toll Brothers centers on continued community expansion, with new luxury developments announced in Georgia, Colorado, South Carolina and Charlotte, alongside an amenity center opening at its Oakbend Wellen Park community in Florida. A separate piece highlighted the company's 2026 outlook, noting a spec home mix scaling to 54% and growing community count as a path for future delivery growth. These items concern ongoing operational execution and geographic expansion rather than new financial results.
Toll Brothers closed at $136.51, down 0.6%, sitting below both its 50-day average of $144.12 and its 200-day average of $144.44, with the 50-day below the 200-day. The one-month return stands at -5.9% and the three-month return at -17.2%, while the six-month return is 4.1% and the one-year return is 1.1%. The GekkoIndex reads 60, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone, down 7.5 over five days. The current price sits 20.1% below the Gekko Fair Value of $170.82.
The next earnings date falls on 14 December 2026, 76 days out and beyond a typical 20-trading-day holding window. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in their respective windows, and one billionaire holder is noted. Seasonality over the next 20 trading days has averaged -0.7% across 5 years, rising in 3 of those years. Analyst consensus among 12 firms includes 9 buy ratings, with a consensus target of $171.87.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.
Toll Brothers price vs fair value
Close $136.51200-day averageGekko Fair Value $170.82
Toll Brothers quick facts
- Market cap
- $12.76B
- P/E ratio
- 10.9
- Forward P/E
- 10
- EPS, TTM
- $12.46
- Revenue, TTM
- $10.76B
- Profit margin
- 11.1%
- Dividend yield
- 0.75%
- Beta
- 1.33
- Volume
- 1.36M avg 1.08M
- 1-year return
- +1.1%
- Typical daily move
- ±2.6%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±7%
- 50-day average
- $144.12
- 200-day average
- $144.44
- Next earnings
- Dec 14
- Shares outstanding
- 92.15M
Toll Brothers swing-trade checklist
Toll Brothers scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive1 mixed1 headwind
- Trendheadwind
Below 50 and 200-day
Close $136.51 is below the 50-day ($144.12) and 200-day ($144.44) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
60, Accumulation
Reading 60 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
20.1% below
Price is 20.1% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 76 days
Next report Dec 14, 2026, 76 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitymixed
−0.7% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −0.7% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Toll Brothers stock chart and price history
Toll Brothers closed at $136.51 on Sep 28, 2026, +1.1% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $123.15 to $168.36.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −5.9%
- 3 months
- −17.2%
- 6 months
- +4.1%
- 1 year
- +1.1%
The full TOL chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open TOL in Gekko
Follow Toll Brothers through every session
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About Toll Brothers
Toll Brothers designs, builds, and markets upscale homes for buyers across the United States, offering both freestanding and attached houses inside communities planned around shared amenities. It has built its name around higher-end residential construction, giving buyers the ability to customize finishes and layouts to their taste.
The business is split into two divisions, one dedicated to conventional home construction and another, called City Living, focused on condominium projects in urban settings. Toll Brothers also branches into related ventures, including building and running golf courses and country clubs, buying and selling land parcels, and putting up apartment buildings that it leases out, sometimes through a partnership with Equity Residential aimed at rental housing projects in different regions. Much of its work is handled in-house, covering architectural design, engineering, mortgage and title insurance services, smart home installations, landscaping, lumber supply, and manufacturing of building components, along with a broad selection of interior finishes such as cabinetry, flooring, and security features. Its typical customers include wealthier households, such as those upgrading their homes, retirees, active adults, and buyers of vacation properties.
The company traces back to 1967 and keeps its headquarters in Fort Washington, Pennsylvania, with shares trading on the NYSE under the ticker TOL.
- Listed
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer durables
- Industry
- Homebuilding
- Website
- tollbrothers.com
Toll Brothers GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Toll Brothers’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 60, in the Accumulation zone, down 7.5 points over five sessions.
60Accumulation
Down 7.5 points over five sessions.
Reading for Sep 28, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 32 | −0.4% | +3.8% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 198 | +0.7% | +3.1% | ||
| Neutral | 416 | +0.4% | +0.7% | ||
| Distribution | 25 | −1.6% | −1.1% | ||
| Selling | 1 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average TOL share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the TOL price, zone by zone.Track TOL in Gekko
Is Toll Brothers stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Toll Brothers trades 20.1% below Gekko Fair Value of $170.82, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Toll Brothers shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$170.82
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026
20.1% Undervalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open TOL in Gekko
Toll Brothers insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Toll Brothers, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in TOL were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for TOL, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open TOL in Gekko
Buybacks
Toll Brothers has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jul 31, 2026
- $204.9M
- As a share of market cap
- 1.61%
- Trailing four quarters
- $703.7M
From company filings.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
1of the funds Gekko tracks holds TOL.
0added1opened0trimmed0sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
Toll Brothers earnings: next date and track record
Toll Brothers reports on Dec 14, 2026 (76 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Dec 14, 2026
76 days away
- EPS estimate
- $4.89
- Revenue estimate
- $3.53B
6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±4%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Aug 18, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Toll Brothers delivered 2,662 homes and $2.6 billion in Q3 FY2026 revenue, beating guidance midpoints on both units and dollars. Adjusted gross margin of 25.6% exceeded guidance by 35 basis points, with EPS of $2.97. Net signed contracts rose 5% YoY to 2,508 units. Community count grew to 471 from 420 YoY, and the company increased share repurchase guidance to $700 million for the year.
- Guidance
- Full year guidance reaffirmed with adjusted gross margin of 26.1% and home sales revenue of ~$10.5 billion. Average delivered price now expected at $995,000–$1 million, generating ~$53 million in additional revenue. Community count projected at 480–490 by year-end with 8–10% growth targeted into FY2027.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | $2.97 est $2.90 | $2.66B est $2.62B | +2.2% |
| May 19, 2026 | $2.72 est $2.59 | $2.53B est $2.42B | +7.4% |
| Feb 17, 2026 | $2.19 est $2.11 | $2.15B est $1.85B | −3.7% |
| Dec 8, 2025 | $4.58 est $4.88 | $3.42B est $3.30B | −4.3% |
| Aug 19, 2025 | $3.73 est $3.60 | $2.95B est $2.86B | +0.2% |
| May 20, 2025 | $3.50 est $3.01 | $2.74B est $2.48B | −1.9% |
| Feb 18, 2025 | $1.75 est $2.05 | $1.86B est $2.66B | −7.1% |
| Dec 9, 2024 | $4.63 est $4.34 | $3.33B est $3.17B | −5.5% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Toll Brothers stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Toll Brothers is $171.87, +25.9% from the last close, from 12 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$171.87consensus 12-month target, +25.9% from the last close
Now $136.51Avg $171.87
Low $122High $195
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 12 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25 | Evercore ISI | $184 | +34.8% |
| Sep 25 | Wells Fargo | $185 | +35.5% |
| Sep 16 | Truist Financial | $170 | +24.5% |
| Aug 28 | KBW | $170 | +24.5% |
| Aug 21 | Citi | $179 | +31.1% |
+3.1%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
−0.7%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.6%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Toll Brothers seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 26, Toll Brothers averaged −0.7% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | 0.0% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −0.8% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +0.9% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | −0.7% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +3.0% | 4 of 5 |
For scale, TOL’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 7%.
Toll Brothers market cap and key statistics
Toll Brothers’s market cap is $12.76B, with a P/E ratio of 10.9 and revenue of $10.76B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $12.76B
- P/E ratio
- 10.9
- Forward P/E
- 10
- EPS, TTM
- $12.46
- Gekko Fair Value
- $170.82
Trading
- Volume
- 1.36M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 1.08M
- 52-week high
- $168.36
- 52-week low
- $123.15
- Shares outstanding
- 92.15M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $10.76B
- Profit margin
- 11.1%
- Return on equity
- 14.4%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- −20.4%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 1.33
- Typical daily move
- ±2.6%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±7%
- Dividend yield
- 0.75%
Toll Brothers stock news this week
Coverage of Toll Brothers this week reads positive: 9 positive, 3 neutral and 0 negative headlines.
- Toll Brothers' 2026 Outlook: Spec Home Mix Scales to 54% to Capture DemandThe Motley Fool, Sep 28
- Director Stephen East Sells 800 Shares of Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)GuruFocus, Sep 26
- Toll Brothers director Stephen East sells $108,792 in sharesInvesting.com, Sep 26
- Toll Brothers Announces Amenity Center is Now Open for Residents at its Oakbend Wellen Park Community in Venice, FloridaNasdaq, Sep 25
- Here’s How Much You Would Have Made Owning Toll Brothers Stock In The Last 15 YearsBenzinga, Sep 25
- Toll Brothers Announces Cloverhill at Cumming City Center Coming Soon to Cumming, GeorgiaGlobeNewswire, Sep 25
Toll Brothers peers
Toll Brothers’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| DHID.R. Horton | Neutral | 0.1% below |
| PHMPulteGroup | Accumulation | 14.2% below |
| LEN.BLennar | Neutral | 19.8% below |
| LENLennar | Neutral | 17.9% below |
| NVRNVR | Neutral | 7.0% below |
| FTDRFrontdoor | Accumulation | 0.3% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Toll Brothers stock FAQ
What is Toll Brothers’s market cap?
Toll Brothers’s market cap is $12.76B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $136.51, with 92.15M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 10.9.
What is the Toll Brothers stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Toll Brothers is $171.87, +25.9% from the last close. Of the 12 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 9 rate it a buy, 2 a hold and 1 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Toll Brothers stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Toll Brothers is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $136.51 is 20.1% below Gekko Fair Value of $170.82. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Toll Brothers report earnings next?
Toll Brothers is expected to report on Dec 14, 2026 (76 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $4.89 per share on revenue of $3.53B. Toll Brothers beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 4% on average across the report.
What is Toll Brothers’s 52-week high and low?
Toll Brothers’s 52-week high is $168.36 and its 52-week low is $123.15; it closed at $136.51 on Sep 28, 2026, +1.1% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $169.52 on Nov 25, 2024.
Is Toll Brothers stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and earnings risk), 1 as mixed (seasonality) and 1 as a headwind (trend). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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