NASDAQ: FTDR

Frontdoor (FTDR) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$72.92−1.07 (−1.4%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

Frontdoor's latest headlines center on Q2 2026 results, in which the company beat both EPS and revenue consensus, with growth attributed to a higher member count, strong retention, and accelerated non-warranty programs. Alongside the earnings coverage, brokerages set an average price target of $92.60 on the stock, with a "Moderate Buy" consensus reflecting five buy ratings and three hold ratings among eight firms covering the company.

Shares closed at $72.92, down 1.4%, sitting below the 50-day average of $79.41 but above the 200-day average of $66.71. The one-month return stands at -12%, the three-month at -4.1%, while the six-month and one-year returns remain positive at 35.9% and 9.2% respectively. The GekkoIndex reads 68.4, placing Frontdoor in the Accumulation zone, and the price sits just 0.3% below Gekko Fair Value of $73.13.

The next earnings report is scheduled for 4 November 2026, 36 days out and beyond a typical 20-trading-day holding window. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the current window. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 0.9% gain over the past 5 years, with gains recorded in 4 of those years, a pattern worth noting alongside the broader Accumulation reading.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

Frontdoor price vs fair value

$73.13$72.92Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $72.92200-day averageGekko Fair Value $73.13

Frontdoor quick facts

Market cap
$5.12B
P/E ratio
19.5
Forward P/E
14.5
EPS, TTM
$3.79
Revenue, TTM
$2.15B
Profit margin
12.8%
Dividend yield
—
Beta
1.51
Volume
710,442 avg 576,803
1-year return
+9.2%
Typical daily move
±3.5%
Typical 20-day move
±7%
50-day average
$79.41
200-day average
$66.71
Next earnings
Nov 4 before open
Shares outstanding
68.89M
52-week range
$48.47$93.43

Frontdoor swing-trade checklist

Frontdoor scores 3 supportive, 2 mixed and 0 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive2 mixed0 headwinds

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $72.92 sits between the 50-day ($79.41) and 200-day ($66.71) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    68.4, Accumulation

    Reading 68.4 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuemixed

    0.3% below

    Price is within 5% of Gekko Fair Value (0.3% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 36 days

    Next report Nov 4, 2026, 36 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +0.9% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +0.9% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Frontdoor stock chart and price history

Frontdoor closed at $72.92 on Sep 28, 2026, +9.2% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $48.47 to $93.43.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Frontdoor share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$50$60$70$80$90NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep72.92

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−12.0%
3 months
−4.1%
6 months
+35.9%
1 year
+9.2%
The full FTDR chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open FTDR in Gekko

Follow Frontdoor through every session

Put FTDR on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

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About Frontdoor

Frontdoor provides home warranty coverage to households throughout the United States, offering plans that protect against the cost of fixing or swapping out roughly twenty common home systems and appliances. The plans touch on wiring and plumbing, water heaters, and kitchen staples like fridges, dishwashers and ovens, as well as pools, spa pumps and heating and cooling equipment. This wide-ranging protection is the hallmark most associated with the company.

Beyond selling warranty plans, Frontdoor operates ProConnect, a service that links homeowners with contractors for on-demand repair needs, and Streem, a platform built around augmented reality, computer vision and machine learning that helps technicians spot issues and complete repairs more accurately. To serve homeowners, the company relies on a group of brand names it owns, among them American Home Shield, HSA, Landmark Home Warranty, OneGuard, Frontdoor and Streem.

Frontdoor traces its founding to 1971 and keeps its main offices in Memphis, Tennessee. Its stock trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker FTDR.

Listed
NASDAQ
Sector
Consumer durables
Industry
Homebuilding
Website
frontdoorhome.com

Frontdoor GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Frontdoor’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 68.4, in the Accumulation zone, up 7.2 points over five sessions.

010068.4Accumulation

Up 7.2 points over five sessions.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying28−1.1%−0.5%+3.6%+27.0%
Accumulation (current zone)151+0.8%+3.9%+10.6%+16.3%
Neutral408+1.0%+1.4%+1.8%+6.5%
Distribution84+0.3%+0.3%0.0%+4.1%
Selling1Too few readings yet

Average FTDR share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the FTDR price, zone by zone.Track FTDR in Gekko

Is Frontdoor stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Frontdoor trades 0.3% below Gekko Fair Value of $73.13, so the shares are about fair value on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Frontdoor shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$73.13

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 29, 2026

0.3% below fair value · About fair value

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open FTDR in Gekko

Frontdoor insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Frontdoor, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for FTDR in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every FTDR insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open FTDR in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in FTDR were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for FTDR, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open FTDR in Gekko

Buybacks

Frontdoor has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$91.00M
As a share of market cap
1.78%
Trailing four quarters
$300.0M

From company filings.

Frontdoor earnings: next date and track record

Frontdoor reports on Nov 4, 2026, before the open (36 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports.

8 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±12.1%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+12.6%May ’24+11.5%Aug ’24+10.7%Nov ’24−19.7%Feb ’25+13.0%Apr ’25−2.7%Aug ’25−24.9%Nov ’25−1.4%Mar ’26

Last earnings call, Mar 4, 2026 AI summary

What they said
FTDR delivered strong 2025 results with revenue growing 14% to nearly $2.1 billion, gross profit margin expanding 150 basis points to a record 55%, and adjusted EBITDA increasing 25% to $553 million. The company stabilized member count for the first time in years and completed a record $280 million in share repurchases. Key growth drivers included the new HVAC program growing 48% to $128 million and successful integration of the 2-10 acquisition with $20 million in cost synergies realized.
Guidance
Management expects member count growth in 2026 and raised long-term adjusted EBITDA margin targets. The company is on track to complete its current share repurchase authorization by early 2027, well ahead of schedule.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Mar 4, 2026$0.23
est $0.12
+89.5%$433.0M
est $421.5M
+2.7%−1.4%
Nov 5, 2025$1.58
est $1.49
+6.0%$617.0M
est $421.6M
+46.3%−24.9%
Aug 5, 2025$1.63
est $1.44
+13.2%$617.0M
est $603.2M
+2.3%−2.7%
Apr 30, 2025$0.64
est $0.38
+69.5%$426.0M
est $590.4M
−27.8%+13.0%
Feb 26, 2025$0.23
est $0.11
+108.5%$382.0M
est $390.5M
−2.2%−19.7%
Nov 4, 2024$1.38
est $1.05
+31.4%$540.0M
est $367.2M
+47.0%+10.7%
Aug 1, 2024$1.27
est $1.00
+27.0%$542.0M
est $536.7M
+1.0%+11.5%
May 2, 2024$0.44
est $0.20
+120.0%$378.0M
est $376.0M
+0.5%+12.6%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Frontdoor stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Frontdoor is $97.40, +33.6% from the last close, from 7 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$97.40consensus 12-month target, +33.6% from the last close
Low $91High $105
Buy4
Hold3
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 7 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 24J.P. MorganHold, maintained$95+30.3%
Sep 3OppenheimerBuy, maintained$100+37.1%
Aug 24J.P. MorganHold, initiated$95+30.3%
Aug 20Truist FinancialBuy, maintained$105+44.0%
Aug 7Truist FinancialBuy, maintained$105+44.0%
+10.6%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+0.9%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.5%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Frontdoor seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, Frontdoor averaged +0.9% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+2.8%2021+3.2%2022−7.4%2023+3.2%2024+3.2%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+0.7%4 of 5
Next 10 trading days+0.2%3 of 5
Next 15 trading days+1.4%2 of 5
Next 20 trading days+0.9%4 of 5
Next 30 trading days+2.7%3 of 5

For scale, FTDR’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 7%.

Frontdoor market cap and key statistics

Frontdoor’s market cap is $5.12B, with a P/E ratio of 19.5 and revenue of $2.15B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$5.12B
P/E ratio
19.5
Forward P/E
14.5
EPS, TTM
$3.79
Gekko Fair Value
$73.13

Trading

Volume
710,442
Avg volume, 20 days
576,803
52-week high
$93.43
52-week low
$48.47
Shares outstanding
68.89M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$2.15B
Profit margin
12.8%
Return on equity
101.9%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+18.9%

Risk and income

Beta
1.51
Typical daily move
±3.5%
Typical 20-day move
±7%

Frontdoor stock news this week

Coverage of Frontdoor this week reads positive: 2 positive, 2 neutral and 1 negative headlines.

News sentiment positive

Frontdoor peers

Frontdoor’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
DHID.R. Horton−0.7%Neutral0.1% below
PHMPulteGroup+0.5%Accumulation14.2% below
LEN.BLennar+0.7%Neutral19.8% below
LENLennar+0.3%Neutral17.9% below
NVRNVR+0.7%Neutral7.0% below
TOLToll Brothers+1.0%Accumulation20.1% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

Frontdoor stock FAQ

What is Frontdoor’s market cap?

Frontdoor’s market cap is $5.12B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $72.92, with 68.89M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 19.5.

What is the Frontdoor stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Frontdoor is $97.40, +33.6% from the last close. Of the 7 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 4 rate it a buy, 3 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Frontdoor stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Frontdoor is about fair value: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $72.92 is 0.3% below Gekko Fair Value of $73.13. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Frontdoor report earnings next?

Frontdoor is expected to report on Nov 4, 2026, before the market opens (36 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.76 per share on revenue of $647.4M. Frontdoor beat the earnings estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports, moving 12.1% on average across the report.

What is Frontdoor’s 52-week high and low?

Frontdoor’s 52-week high is $93.43 and its 52-week low is $48.47; it closed at $72.92 on Sep 28, 2026, +9.2% over the past year.

Is Frontdoor stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, earnings risk and seasonality), 2 as mixed (trend and fair value). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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