NASDAQ: TCBI

Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$94.70−1.12 (−1.2%)
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Gekko Brief

AI summary

This week's coverage centers on a review of regional banks' Q2 earnings, placing Texas Capital Bank (TCBI) alongside peers, with the sector showing revenues generally in line with estimates even as share prices moved through a rough stretch. Beyond this comparative look, no new results, guidance, deals or regulatory developments are noted for the company itself.

TCBI closes at $94.70, down 1.2%, sitting below both its 50-day average of $98.43 and its 200-day average of $98.72, with the 50-day also below the 200-day. Over the past month the stock is off 3.5%, and over three months down 7.8%, though it remains up 9.6% over the past year. The GekkoIndex reads 64.3, placing it in the Accumulation zone, down 4 points over the last five sessions. Gekko Fair Value stands at $102.50, putting the current price 7.6% below that mark.

The next earnings report is scheduled for 21 October 2026, before the open, 22 days out and within a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior report showed an EPS beat, with a subsequent reaction of -5.1%. Over the last 90 days, Congress recorded 1 buy and 0 sales, and the last 30 days show 1 unusual options signal, with put premium of $252,252 and no call premium. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged -1.2% over 5 years, rising in 2 of those years.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

Texas Capital Bancshares price vs fair value

$102.50$94.70Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $94.70200-day averageGekko Fair Value $102.50

Texas Capital Bancshares quick facts

Market cap
$4.12B
P/E ratio
12.5
Forward P/E
11.1
EPS, TTM
$7.69
Revenue, TTM
$1.27B
Profit margin
28.7%
Dividend yield
0.21%
Beta
0.67
Volume
610,164 avg 501,314
1-year return
+9.6%
Typical daily move
±1.7%
Typical 20-day move
±5.3%
50-day average
$98.43
200-day average
$98.72
Next earnings
Oct 21 before open
Shares outstanding
43.47M
52-week range
$75.41$108.92

Texas Capital Bancshares swing-trade checklist

Texas Capital Bancshares scores 2 supportive, 1 mixed and 3 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

2 supportive1 mixed3 headwinds

  • Trendheadwind

    Below 50 and 200-day

    Close $94.70 is below the 50-day ($98.43) and 200-day ($98.72) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    64.3, Accumulation

    Reading 64.3 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    7.6% below

    Price is 7.6% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneymixed

    Mixed

    Last 90 days: Congress 1 buy / 0 sales. Last 30 days: 1 unusual options signal.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskheadwind

    Reports in 22 days

    Reports on Oct 21, 2026, 22 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalityheadwind

    −1.2% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −1.2% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Texas Capital Bancshares stock chart and price history

Texas Capital Bancshares closed at $94.70 on Sep 28, 2026, +9.6% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $75.41 to $108.92.

5Y and weekly in Gekko
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Texas Capital Bancshares share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$80$90$100NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep94.70

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−3.5%
3 months
−7.8%
6 months
+2.2%
1 year
+9.6%
The full TCBI chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open TCBI in Gekko

Follow Texas Capital Bancshares through every session

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Texas Capital Bancshares GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Texas Capital Bancshares’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 64.3, in the Accumulation zone, down 4 points over five sessions.

010064.3Accumulation

Down 4 points over five sessions.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying18+3.4%+4.4%+3.8%+7.2%
Accumulation (current zone)202+0.4%+1.3%+3.6%+5.4%
Neutral410+0.4%+0.7%+1.0%+4.2%
Distribution39−1.1%−1.5%+0.3%+3.7%
Selling3Too few readings yet

Average TCBI share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the TCBI price, zone by zone.Track TCBI in Gekko

Is Texas Capital Bancshares stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Texas Capital Bancshares trades 7.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $102.50, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Texas Capital Bancshares shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$102.50

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026

7.6% Undervalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open TCBI in Gekko

Texas Capital Bancshares insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Texas Capital Bancshares, and members of Congress disclosed 1 purchase and 0 sales, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for TCBI in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every TCBI insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open TCBI in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

1trade disclosed: 1 purchase and 0 sales.

MemberTypeAmountDisclosed
Gilbert Ray Cisneros
House, CA, purchase		Purchase$1,001 - $15,000Jul 3
traded Jun 30

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Buybacks

Texas Capital Bancshares has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$23.57M
As a share of market cap
0.57%
Trailing four quarters
$249.4M

From company filings.

Unusual options activity last 30 days

1signal, 0% of the flagged premium in calls.

Latest: Bullish flow on Sep 17, $252K in unusual premium.

Every signal with its contract, strike and premium.Unlock in Gekko

Texas Capital Bancshares earnings: next date and track record

Texas Capital Bancshares reports on Oct 21, 2026, before the open (22 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports.

5 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±3.9%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+4.9%Apr ’24−6.6%Jul ’24+0.7%Oct ’24−3.9%Jan ’25−1.4%Apr ’25+4.8%Jul ’25+3.5%Oct ’25−5.1%Jan ’26
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Jan 22, 2026$2.08
est $1.78		+16.9%$327.5M
est $323.3M		+1.3%−5.1%
Oct 22, 2025$2.18
est $1.77		+23.2%$317.4M
est $326.5M		−2.8%+3.5%
Jul 17, 2025$1.63
est $1.28		+27.3%$307.5M
est $327.1M		−6.0%+4.8%
Apr 17, 2025$0.92
est $0.95		−3.5%$280.5M
est $284.8M		−1.5%−1.4%
Jan 23, 2025$1.43
est $1.07		+33.6%$283.7M
est $286.8M		−1.1%−3.9%
Oct 17, 2024$1.62
est −$1.98		+181.8%$337.8M
est $279.0M		+21.1%+0.7%
Jul 18, 2024$0.80
est $0.86		−7.0%$267.0M
est $267.2M		−0.1%−6.6%
Apr 18, 2024$0.46
est $0.60		−23.3%$256.3M
est $253.7M		+1.0%+4.9%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Texas Capital Bancshares stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Texas Capital Bancshares is $108.31, +14.4% from the last close, from 9 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$108.31consensus 12-month target, +14.4% from the last close
Low $100High $115
Buy2
Hold5
Sell2

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 9 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 22CitiHold, maintained$104+9.8%
Jul 28Bank of America SecuritiesBuy, reiterated$115+21.4%
Jul 27TD CowenHold, maintained$106+11.9%
Jul 24CitiHold, maintained$107+13.0%
Jul 23D.A. DavidsonHold, maintained$111+17.2%
+3.6%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
−1.2%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±1.7%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Texas Capital Bancshares seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, Texas Capital Bancshares averaged −1.2% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

−5.2%2021−2.8%2022−7.5%2023+9.4%2024+0.5%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+1.8%4 of 5
Next 10 trading days+1.4%2 of 5
Next 15 trading days−0.8%2 of 5
Next 20 trading days−1.2%2 of 5
Next 30 trading days+4.2%4 of 5

For scale, TCBI’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 5.3%.

Texas Capital Bancshares market cap and key statistics

Texas Capital Bancshares’s market cap is $4.12B, with a P/E ratio of 12.5 and revenue of $1.27B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$4.12B
P/E ratio
12.5
Forward P/E
11.1
EPS, TTM
$7.69
Gekko Fair Value
$102.50

Trading

Volume
610,164
Avg volume, 20 days
501,314
52-week high
$108.92
52-week low
$75.41
Shares outstanding
43.47M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$1.27B
Profit margin
28.7%
Return on equity
10.2%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+15.8%

Risk and income

Beta
0.67
Typical daily move
±1.7%
Typical 20-day move
±5.3%
Dividend yield
0.21%

Texas Capital Bancshares stock news this week

2 headlines about Texas Capital Bancshares from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.

Texas Capital Bancshares peers

Texas Capital Bancshares’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
JPMJP Morgan Chase−1.5%Accumulation6.9% below
BACBank of America−1.7%Buying13.8% below
RYRoyal Bank Of Canada−0.3%Accumulation3.6% below
WFCWells Fargo−2.3%Accumulation12.4% below
CCitigroup−1.7%Neutral7.8% below
TDToronto Dominion Bank−0.8%Accumulation0.8% above

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

BACHDPEPNVOSCHWMCD

Reporting earnings this week

CCLKMXAIRUECMUJBL

Popular on Gekko

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Texas Capital Bancshares stock FAQ

What is Texas Capital Bancshares’s market cap?

Texas Capital Bancshares’s market cap is $4.12B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $94.70, with 43.47M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 12.5.

What is the Texas Capital Bancshares stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Texas Capital Bancshares is $108.31, +14.4% from the last close. Of the 9 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 2 rate it a buy, 5 a hold and 2 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Texas Capital Bancshares stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Texas Capital Bancshares is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $94.70 is 7.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $102.50. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Texas Capital Bancshares report earnings next?

Texas Capital Bancshares is expected to report on Oct 21, 2026, before the market opens (22 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.96 per share on revenue of $339.5M. Texas Capital Bancshares beat the earnings estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports, moving 3.9% on average across the report.

What is Texas Capital Bancshares’s 52-week high and low?

Texas Capital Bancshares’s 52-week high is $108.92 and its 52-week low is $75.41; it closed at $94.70 on Sep 28, 2026, +9.6% over the past year.

Is Texas Capital Bancshares stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex and fair value), 1 as mixed (smart money) and 3 as headwinds (trend, earnings risk and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

Is there unusual options activity in Texas Capital Bancshares?

Gekko flagged 1 unusual options signal in Texas Capital Bancshares over the last 30 days, with $0 of flagged premium in calls and $252K in puts. The latest, bullish flow, was on Sep 17, 2026 with $252K in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

Built and overseen by Jared Mann

Founder of Gekko.app. Jared has traded stocks and ETFs for more than 20 years and has a financial industry background.

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