NYSE: RLI

RLI (RLI) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$55.98+0.29 (+0.5%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

This week's coverage of RLI centers on routine stock summaries alongside a piece weighing whether recent gains, including a 6.2% rise over three months, warrant holding the position, citing disciplined underwriting, rising investment income, and strong capital returns as premium pricing in the P&C market moderates. A filing also showed Bank of America Corp DE opening a new position in RLI Corp.

RLI closes at $55.98, up 0.5%, with the price sitting between its 50-day average of $62.10 and 200-day average of $58.99. The stock has fallen 12.8% over one month and 12.8% over one year, though it is roughly flat over six months at -0.6%. The GekkoIndex reads 74.9, placing it in the Buying zone, up 3.5 over five days. Gekko Fair Value stands at $61.53, putting the current price 9% below that level.

RLI next reports earnings on 19 October 2026, 20 days away, falling inside a typical 20-trading-day holding period; its last report showed a 86% combined ratio and operating earnings of $0.83 per share matching estimates, with an average absolute reaction of 2.8% historically. Analyst views are split, with 5 firms covering the stock at 1 buy, 2 hold and 2 sell ratings, and a consensus target of $60.50 implying 8.1% upside. Seasonality over this point in the calendar has averaged a 3.2% gain across the next 20 trading days over 5 years, rising in 3 of them. No insider, Congress or unusual options activity appears in the current window.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

RLI price vs fair value

$61.53$55.98Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $55.98200-day averageGekko Fair Value $61.53

RLI quick facts

Market cap
$5.14B
P/E ratio
11.8
Forward P/E
20.5
EPS, TTM
$4.76
Revenue, TTM
$1.97B
Profit margin
22.2%
Dividend yield
1.16%
Beta
0.33
Volume
778,659 avg 661,955
1-year return
−12.8%
Typical daily move
±2.4%
Typical 20-day move
±4%
50-day average
$62.10
200-day average
$58.99
Next earnings
Oct 19
Shares outstanding
91.77M
52-week range
$47.26$67.12

RLI swing-trade checklist

RLI scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive1 mixed1 headwind

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $55.98 sits between the 50-day ($62.10) and 200-day ($58.99) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    74.9, Buying

    Reading 74.9 is in the Buying zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    9.0% below

    Price is 9% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskheadwind

    Reports in 20 days

    Reports on Oct 19, 2026, 20 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +3.2% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +3.2% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

RLI stock chart and price history

RLI closed at $55.98 on Sep 28, 2026, −12.8% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $47.26 to $67.12.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
RLI share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$50$60$65$70$75NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep55.98

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−12.8%
3 months
−4.1%
6 months
−0.6%
1 year
−12.8%
The full RLI chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open RLI in Gekko

Follow RLI through every session

Put RLI on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

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About RLI

RLI writes property and casualty insurance for businesses and individuals across the United States and abroad. It covers a broad mix of risks, from general liability for manufacturers, contractors, apartments and retailers to specialized coverages for security guards, onshore energy operations and environmental exposures like underground storage tanks and asbestos removal. It also insures professional firms against errors and omissions, provides commercial auto coverage for truckers and transit operators, and offers property, marine, homeowners and management liability products, along with surety bonds for contractors and other businesses.

The company organizes its underwriting into casualty, property and surety segments, and it also assumes reinsurance business. Its casualty lines serve commercial and personal clients ranging from small professional firms to larger public and private businesses, while its surety segment bonds range from individual and small business needs to medium and large contractors. RLI reaches these customers through its own branch offices as well as brokers, carrier partners, and underwriting and independent agents.

RLI was founded in 1965 and is based in Peoria, Illinois. Its shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker RLI.

Listed
NYSE
Sector
Finance
Industry
Multi-line insurance
Website
rlicorp.com

RLI GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

RLI’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 74.9, in the Buying zone, up 3.5 points over five sessions.

010074.9Buying

Up 3.5 points over five sessions.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying (current zone)49+1.4%+1.5%+3.1%+5.8%
Accumulation242−0.4%−0.6%−0.8%−1.4%
Neutral340+0.1%+0.1%0.0%−0.6%
Distribution34−1.5%−1.5%−2.9%−7.1%
Selling7Too few readings yet

Average RLI share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Buying readings averaged +3.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Buying zone: Smart money likely accumulating heavily. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the RLI price, zone by zone.Track RLI in Gekko

Is RLI stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

RLI trades 9.0% below Gekko Fair Value of $61.53, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what RLI shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$61.53

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026

9.0% Undervalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open RLI in Gekko

RLI insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for RLI, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for RLI in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every RLI insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open RLI in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in RLI were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for RLI, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open RLI in Gekko

Buybacks

RLI has been buying back its own shares.

Latest authorization
$250.0M, Jul 28, 2026
Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$12.05M
As a share of market cap
0.23%

From company filings.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Mar 31

1of the funds Gekko tracks holds RLI.

1added0opened0trimmed0sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

RLI earnings: next date and track record

RLI reports on Oct 19, 2026 (20 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.

6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±2.8%average move across the report
2 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+3.1%Jul ’24−2.4%Oct ’24−8.0%Jan ’25−3.8%Apr ’25−0.8%Jul ’25+2.8%Oct ’25−0.5%Jan ’26−1.3%Apr ’26

Last earnings call, Apr 21, 2026 AI summary

What they said
RLI Corp. reported Q1 results with an 86% combined ratio, 3% premium growth led by casualty segment, and 15% increase in net investment income. Operating earnings were $0.83 per share versus $0.89 prior year. Underwriting income was $58 million, benefiting from $35.5 million favorable prior-year reserve development but offset by $16 million in catastrophes.
Guidance
Management expressed confidence in their market position and ability to deliver consistent profitable results over time, citing opportunities from market disruption and their financial strength to capitalize on them.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Apr 21, 2026$0.83
est $0.83
−0.4%$503.9M
est $479.4M
+5.1%−1.3%
Jan 20, 2026$0.94
est $0.81
+15.9%$463.2M
est $481.7M
−3.8%−0.5%
Oct 20, 2025$0.83
est $0.71
+16.6%$509.3M
est $515.4M
−1.2%+2.8%
Jul 21, 2025$0.84
est $0.75
+12.0%$499.8M
est $445.4M
+12.2%−0.8%
Apr 23, 2025$0.92
est $0.88
+4.5%$407.7M
est $442.0M
−7.8%−3.8%
Jan 22, 2025$0.41
est $0.52
−21.2%$439.1M
est $444.6M
−1.2%−8.0%
Oct 21, 2024$0.66
est $0.48
+37.5%$470.0M
est $491.5M
−4.4%−2.4%
Jul 22, 2024$1.72
est $1.34
+28.4%$422.6M
est $561.6M
−24.7%+3.1%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

RLI stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for RLI is $60.50, +8.1% from the last close, from 5 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$60.50consensus 12-month target, +8.1% from the last close
Low $53High $74
Buy1
Hold2
Sell2

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 5 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Aug 25JefferiesSell, downgraded$53−5.3%
Jul 29KBWBuy, maintained$74+32.2%
Jul 29Wells FargoSell, downgraded$57+1.8%
Jul 24Truist FinancialHold, maintained$58+3.6%
Jul 23William BlairHold, maintained——
+3.1%average 20-day move after past Buying readings
+3.2%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.4%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

RLI seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, RLI averaged +3.2% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+3.0%2021+21.5%2022−4.1%2023+1.0%2024−5.2%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+0.7%2 of 5
Next 10 trading days+1.1%2 of 5
Next 15 trading days+1.6%3 of 5
Next 20 trading days+3.2%3 of 5
Next 30 trading days+8.4%3 of 5

For scale, RLI’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 4%.

RLI market cap and key statistics

RLI’s market cap is $5.14B, with a P/E ratio of 11.8 and revenue of $1.97B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$5.14B
P/E ratio
11.8
Forward P/E
20.5
EPS, TTM
$4.76
Gekko Fair Value
$61.53

Trading

Volume
778,659
Avg volume, 20 days
661,955
52-week high
$67.12
52-week low
$47.26
Shares outstanding
91.77M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$1.97B
Profit margin
22.2%
Return on equity
25.2%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+35.8%

Risk and income

Beta
0.33
Typical daily move
±2.4%
Typical 20-day move
±4%
Dividend yield
1.16%

RLI stock news this week

Coverage of RLI this week reads neutral: 0 positive, 3 neutral and 2 negative headlines.

News sentiment neutral

RLI peers

RLI’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
PGRProgressive+1.7%Accumulation5.2% below
MFCManulife Financial−0.4%Neutral8.8% above
METMetLife−1.7%Neutral4.2% below
ALLAllstate−0.5%Buying13.8% below
AFLAFLAC−0.4%Accumulation4.8% below
SLFSun Life Financial−0.5%Neutral7.1% above

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

RLI stock FAQ

What is RLI’s market cap?

RLI’s market cap is $5.14B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $55.98, with 91.77M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 11.8.

What is the RLI stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for RLI is $60.50, +8.1% from the last close. Of the 5 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 1 rate it a buy, 2 a hold and 2 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is RLI stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate RLI is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $55.98 is 9.0% below Gekko Fair Value of $61.53. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does RLI report earnings next?

RLI is expected to report on Oct 19, 2026 (20 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.51 per share on revenue of $533.5M. RLI beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 2.8% on average across the report.

What is RLI’s 52-week high and low?

RLI’s 52-week high is $67.12 and its 52-week low is $47.26; it closed at $55.98 on Sep 28, 2026, −12.8% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $91.15 on Nov 27, 2024.

Is RLI stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and seasonality), 1 as mixed (trend) and 1 as a headwind (earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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