Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for PGR in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every PGR insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open PGR in Gekko
NYSE: PGR
Progressive (PGR) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Nov 4 close
$234.82+5.71 (+2.5%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryNov 4 closeProgressive moves this week on strong Q3 2026 results, with headlines pointing to premium and policy growth, improved underwriting margins and continued technology investment, alongside AI-driven operating initiatives and stock repurchases. Coverage also notes a mixed undertone, as underwriting strength was offset by lower net income tied to investment losses, including unrealized losses on fixed-maturity securities. Separately, former Progressive CFO John Sauerland has joined SiriusPoint's board effective January 2027, a personnel note tied to the company rather than a shift in its own operations.
Shares close at $234.82, up 2.5%, sitting above both the 50-day average of $218.34 and the 200-day average of $209.71, with the 50-day above the 200-day. The stock trades within its 52-week range of $189.20 to $239.38, and one-month, three-month, six-month and one-year returns stand at 10.7%, 9%, 19.3% and 15.3% respectively. The GekkoIndex reads 49.2, placing it in the Neutral zone, down 3.1 over five days. Price sits 5.3% above the $223.01 Gekko Fair Value estimate.
The next earnings date falls on 27 January 2027, 83 days out, beyond a typical 20-trading-day window. No insider, Congress or unusual options activity appears in the current windows, and trailblazer holders number 1 with no billionaire holders listed. Seasonality from this point in the calendar shows a 5.2% average move over the next 20 trading days across 5 years, rising in 5 of them. Analyst consensus across 17 firms shows 6 buy, 10 hold and 1 sell ratings, with a consensus target of $230.38.
Written by AI from the Nov 4, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Progressive price vs fair value
Close $234.82200-day averageGekko Fair Value $223.01
Progressive quick facts
- Market cap
- $136.5B
- P/E ratio
- 11.8
- Forward P/E
- 14.1
- EPS, TTM
- $19.85
- Revenue, TTM
- $91.70B
- Profit margin
- 12.7%
- Dividend yield
- 0.04%
- Beta
- 0.20
- Volume
- 3.14M avg 2.56M
- 1-year return
- +15.3%
- Typical daily move
- ±2%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±3.9%
- 50-day average
- $218.34
- 200-day average
- $209.71
- Next earnings
- Jan 27
- Shares outstanding
- 579.5M
Progressive swing-trade checklist
Progressive scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive1 mixed1 headwind
- Trendsupportive
Above 50 and 200-day
Close $234.82 is above the 50-day ($218.34) and 200-day ($209.71) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexmixed
49.2, Neutral
Reading 49.2 is in the Neutral zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valueheadwind
5.3% above
Price is 5.3% above Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% above).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 83 days
Next report Jan 27, 2027, 83 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+5.2% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +5.2% over 5 years, rising in 5 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Progressive stock chart and price history
Progressive closed at $234.82 on Nov 4, 2026, +15.3% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $189.20 to $239.38.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- +10.7%
- 3 months
- +9.0%
- 6 months
- +19.3%
- 1 year
- +15.3%
The full PGR chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open PGR in Gekko
Follow Progressive through every session
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About Progressive
Progressive is an insurance holding company that sells coverage for vehicles, homes and businesses across the United States. It writes personal and commercial auto policies, along with property and general liability products, and is widely recognized for its personal auto insurance business. Its personal offerings extend beyond standard cars to motorcycles, ATVs, RVs, boats and snowmobiles, while its commercial policies cover business vehicles ranging from small delivery vans to long-haul trucks, construction and logging equipment, tow trucks, taxis and livery vehicles.
The company operates through three segments: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines and Property. Personal Lines covers individual vehicles and recreational transport, Commercial Lines serves businesses with fleet and liability needs, and Property handles homeowners, renters, umbrella and flood insurance. Beyond underwriting policies, Progressive handles claims processing, acts as an agent for products like workers' compensation, and offers reinsurance. Customers can buy coverage through independent agents or directly through Progressive's own websites, mobile tools and phone lines.
Founded in 1937, Progressive is headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio. Its shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker PGR.
- Listed
- NYSE
- Sector
- Finance
- Industry
- Multi-line insurance
- Website
- progressive.com
Progressive GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Progressive’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 49.2, in the Neutral zone, down 3.1 points over five sessions.
49.2Neutral
Down 3.1 points over five sessions.
Reading for Nov 4, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 12 | +0.5% | +4.7% | ||
| Accumulation | 233 | +0.6% | +1.0% | ||
| Neutral (current zone) | 373 | −0.2% | −0.2% | ||
| Distribution | 70 | +1.4% | +3.7% | ||
| Selling | 9 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average PGR share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.0% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the PGR price, zone by zone.Track PGR in Gekko
Is Progressive stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Progressive trades 5.3% above Gekko Fair Value of $223.01, so the shares are overvalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Progressive shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$223.01
Gekko Fair Value, Nov 4, 2026
5.3% Overvalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 3.8% below the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open PGR in Gekko
Progressive insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Progressive, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in PGR were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for PGR, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open PGR in Gekko
Buybacks
Progressive has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $614.0M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.45%
- Trailing four quarters
- $1.19B
From company filings.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
1of the funds Gekko tracks holds PGR.
1added0opened0trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
Progressive earnings: next date and track record
Progressive reports on Jan 27, 2027 (83 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Jan 27, 2027
83 days away
- EPS estimate
- $4.02
- Revenue estimate
- $20.13B
6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±4.1%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | $4.37 est $4.35 | $22.30B est $22.61B | −4.1% |
| Jul 15, 2026 | $4.85 est $4.64 | $21.08B est $19.49B | −9.2% |
| Apr 15, 2026 | $4.96 est $4.88 | $23.64B est $22.98B | +3.5% |
| Jan 28, 2026 | $4.67 est $4.43 | $19.51B est $20.30B | +0.1% |
| Oct 15, 2025 | $4.05 est $4.99 | $22.51B est $21.80B | −7.8% |
| Jul 16, 2025 | $4.88 est $4.48 | $22.00B est $20.46B | +2.1% |
| Apr 16, 2025 | $4.65 est $4.75 | $20.40B est $21.47B | −3.9% |
| Jan 29, 2025 | $4.08 est $3.23 | $20.27B est $18.30B | +1.7% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Progressive stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Progressive is $230.38, −1.9% from the last close, from 17 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$230.38consensus 12-month target, −1.9% from the last close
Now $234.82Avg $230.38
Low $196High $262
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 17 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | KBW | $246 | +4.8% |
| Nov 3 | BMO Capital | $221 | −5.9% |
| Nov 3 | Bank of America Securities | $262 | +11.6% |
| Nov 3 | KBW | $246 | +4.8% |
| Oct 28 | Bank of America Securities | — | — |
−0.2%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+5.2%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Progressive seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Nov 4, Progressive averaged +5.2% across the last 5 years, rising in 5 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +3.3% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +2.3% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +5.2% | 5 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +5.2% | 5 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +3.6% | 4 of 5 |
For scale, PGR’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 3.9%.
Progressive market cap and key statistics
Progressive’s market cap is $136.5B, with a P/E ratio of 11.8 and revenue of $91.70B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $136.5B
- P/E ratio
- 11.8
- Forward P/E
- 14.1
- EPS, TTM
- $19.85
- Gekko Fair Value
- $223.01
Trading
- Volume
- 3.14M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 2.56M
- 52-week high
- $239.38
- 52-week low
- $189.20
- Shares outstanding
- 579.5M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $91.70B
- Profit margin
- 12.7%
- Return on equity
- 33.2%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- −2.1%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.20
- Typical daily move
- ±2%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±3.9%
- Dividend yield
- 0.04%
Progressive stock news this week
Coverage of Progressive this week reads neutral: 5 positive, 17 neutral and 1 negative headlines.
- Progressive (PGR), What Is Behind The Latest Attention?Simply Wall St, Nov 4
- Progressive stock: underwriting strength meets investment drag in Q3ad-hoc-news.de, Nov 4
- Progressive stock weighs strong underwriting against lower Q3 profitad-hoc-news.de, Nov 4
- Aware Super Pty Ltd as trustee of Aware Super Makes New $3.32 Million Investment in The Progressive Corporation $PGRMarketBeat, Nov 4
- Progressive Q3 Earnings Call HighlightsMarketBeat, Nov 4
- SiriusPoint appoints former Progressive CFO to board By Investing.comInvesting.com India, Nov 3
Progressive peers
Progressive’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| MFCManulife Financial | Neutral | 14.5% above |
| ALLAllstate | Neutral | 5.5% above |
| METMetLife | Neutral | 1.1% above |
| AFLAFLAC | Neutral | 7.0% above |
| SLFSun Life Financial | Neutral | 11.2% above |
| AIGAIG | Neutral | 0.3% above |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Progressive stock FAQ
What is Progressive’s market cap?
Progressive’s market cap is $136.5B at the Nov 4, 2026 close of $234.82, with 579.5M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 11.8.
What is the Progressive stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Progressive is $230.38, −1.9% from the last close. Of the 17 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 6 rate it a buy, 10 a hold and 1 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Progressive stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Progressive is overvalued: the Nov 4, 2026 close of $234.82 is 5.3% above Gekko Fair Value of $223.01. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Progressive report earnings next?
Progressive is expected to report on Jan 27, 2027 (83 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $4.02 per share on revenue of $20.13B. Progressive beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 4.1% on average across the report.
What is Progressive’s 52-week high and low?
Progressive’s 52-week high is $239.38 and its 52-week low is $189.20; it closed at $234.82 on Nov 4, 2026, +15.3% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $292.99 on Mar 17, 2025.
Is Progressive stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (trend, earnings risk and seasonality), 1 as mixed (gekkoindex) and 1 as a headwind (fair value). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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