NASDAQ: LASR

nLIGHT (LASR) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Oct 12 close

$38.25−0.23 (−0.6%)

Gekko Brief

AI summaryOct 12 close

nLIGHT confirmed it will report third-quarter 2026 results on 5 November, after market close, with analysts anticipating earnings of $0.0489 per share on revenues of $68.16 million. Northcoast Research upgraded the stock to Buy with a $75 price target, following a quarter in which nLIGHT exceeded expectations with adjusted EPS of $0.15 and revenue of $82.59 million, though the company remains unprofitable. Separately, eleven Wall Street analysts carry a "Moderate Buy" consensus with an average 12-month target of $87.94, while another outlet flagged the shares as overvalued on its own metric despite a GF Score of 62/100.

LASR closed at $38.25, down 0.6%, and sits below both its 50-day average of $45.41 and 200-day average of $57.91, with the 50-day below the 200-day. The GekkoIndex reads 66.7, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone, up 3.1 over five days. Price sits 36.6% below the Gekko Fair Value of $60.37.

Earnings arrive on 5 November, 23 days out, inside a typical 20-trading-day holding window, and the last reaction to results moved the stock by 25.4%, versus an average absolute move of 18.4% across the last eight quarters, with six beats. Smart-money data shows no insider, Congress, or unusual options activity in the respective windows, though one trailblazer holder is recorded. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 12.1% gain over five years, rising in four of them.

Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

nLIGHT price vs fair value

$60.37$38.25Oct ’25Apr ’26Oct ’26
Close $38.25200-day averageGekko Fair Value $60.37

nLIGHT quick facts

Market cap
$2.16B
P/E ratio
—
Forward P/E
61.4
EPS, TTM
−$0.25
Revenue, TTM
$310.7M
Profit margin
-4%
Dividend yield
—
Beta
2.37
Volume
950,912 avg 828,649
1-year return
+26.3%
Typical daily move
±4.2%
Typical 20-day move
±10.6%
50-day average
$45.41
200-day average
$57.91
Next earnings
Nov 5 after close
Shares outstanding
57.69M
52-week range
$28.05$86.95

nLIGHT swing-trade checklist

nLIGHT scores 3 supportive, 0 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive0 mixed2 headwinds

  • Trendheadwind

    Below 50 and 200-day

    Close $38.25 is below the 50-day ($45.41) and 200-day ($57.91) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    66.7, Accumulation

    Reading 66.7 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    36.6% below

    Price is 36.6% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskheadwind

    Reports in 24 days

    Reports on Nov 5, 2026, 24 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +12.1% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +12.1% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

nLIGHT stock chart and price history

nLIGHT closed at $38.25 on Oct 12, 2026, +26.3% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $28.05 to $86.95.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
nLIGHT share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$20$60$80NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct38.25

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−5.3%
3 months
−46.5%
6 months
−45.2%
1 year
+26.3%
The full LASR chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open LASR in Gekko

Follow nLIGHT through every session

Put LASR on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

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About nLIGHT

nLIGHT designs, builds, and sells semiconductor and fiber lasers used in cutting, welding, and other precision manufacturing work, as well as in microfabrication and aerospace and defense applications. The company has built a name around these laser systems, which serve industrial customers alongside government and military-related programs. Beyond its core laser products, nLIGHT also makes fiber amplifiers and beam combination and control systems that support high-energy laser setups used in directed energy work.

The business runs through two segments, Laser Products and Advanced Development, which together cover its commercial and defense-oriented work. Sales reach customers directly through its own sales teams in the United States, China, South Korea, and parts of Europe, while independent representatives and distributors extend its reach into other regions of Asia, Europe, and South America.

nLIGHT traces back to 2000, when it was established as nLight Photonics Corporation, later renamed nLIGHT, Inc. in January 2016. The company is headquartered in Camas, Washington, and its shares are listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker LASR.

Listed
NASDAQ
Sector
Electronic technology
Industry
Semiconductors
Website
nlight.net

nLIGHT GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

nLIGHT’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 66.7, in the Accumulation zone, up 3.1 points over five sessions.

010066.7Accumulation

Up 3.1 points over five sessions.

Reading for Oct 12, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying23+3.4%+6.4%+8.9%+45.5%
Accumulation (current zone)230+0.7%+0.2%+2.5%+13.5%
Neutral370+1.3%+2.8%+5.6%+14.5%
Distribution52+2.3%+6.9%+11.3%+31.9%
Selling7Too few readings yet

Average LASR share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the LASR price, zone by zone.Track LASR in Gekko

Is nLIGHT stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

nLIGHT trades 36.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $60.37, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what nLIGHT shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$60.37

Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026

36.6% Undervalued

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 46.6% below the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$60$38Aug 2026SepOct 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open LASR in Gekko

nLIGHT insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for nLIGHT, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for LASR in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every LASR insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open LASR in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in LASR were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for LASR, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open LASR in Gekko

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30

1of the funds Gekko tracks holds LASR.

0added0opened1trimmed0sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

nLIGHT earnings: next date and track record

nLIGHT reports on Nov 5, 2026, after the close (24 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.

6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±18.4%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−20.1%Nov ’24−6.7%Feb ’25+42.5%May ’25+32.9%Aug ’25+8.4%Nov ’25−7.3%Feb ’26+3.7%May ’26−25.4%Aug ’26

Last earnings call, Aug 6, 2026 AI summary

What they said
nLIGHT's Q2 2026 earnings call highlighted a record quarter with strong revenue growth, improved gross margins, record product revenue, and solid adjusted EBITDA and operating cash flow. Management emphasized growth across aerospace & defense (A&D) and commercial markets driven by directed energy awards (notably JLWS), growth in HELSI-2 progress, and expanding pipeline in laser sensing and advanced manufacturing. They reported supply-chain headwinds tied to increased scrutiny on dual-use components from China—primarily optics—impacting Q3 guidance and potentially timing for some commercial shipments, though initial JLWS work is unaffected. Management reiterated derisking efforts, moving manufacturing out of China, qualifying new suppliers, redesigning products, and expecting demand to remain strong. They also discussed potential large contract ceilings, defense program timelines tied to U.S. budgets, additive manufacturing strength, and long-term growth opportunities. Cash flow and working capital management were highlighted.
Guidance
Third-quarter guidance was narrowed/wider due to supply-chain uncertainty; management said JLWS will start contributing revenue in the current quarter, ramp in 2027, and initial JLWS funded work of $44M is unaffected. They expect HELSI-2 to deliver a 1MW laser late in 2026. No formal numeric FY2027 guidance beyond these timing comments was provided.
Risks flagged
Supply chain disruptions due to increased Chinese scrutiny on dual-use components (optics) causing potential delays in Q3 (could span months to quarters); potential indirect exposure of defense programs to commercial component shortages; budgeting/timing uncertainties tied to U.S. defense budgets; longer product gestation for missile sensing opportunities.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Aug 6, 2026−$0.02
est −$0.03
+33.3%$82.59M
est $78.58M
+5.1%−25.4%
May 7, 2026$0.01
est −$0.12
+108.3%$80.18M
est $72.14M
+11.2%+3.7%
Feb 26, 2026$0.14
est $0.11
+29.7%$81.19M
est $76.71M
+5.8%−7.3%
Nov 6, 2025$0.08
est $0.02
+300.0%$66.74M
est $76.14M
−12.3%+8.4%
Aug 7, 2025$0.06
est −$0.09
+166.7%$61.74M
est $57.32M
+7.7%+32.9%
May 8, 2025−$0.04
est −$0.19
+78.9%$51.67M
est $50.16M
+3.0%+42.5%
Feb 27, 2025−$0.30
est −$0.20
−51.9%$47.38M
est $46.62M
+1.6%−6.7%
Nov 7, 2024−$0.08
est −$0.08
0.0%$56.13M
est $54.02M
+3.9%−20.1%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

nLIGHT stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for nLIGHT is $87.12, +127.8% from the last close, from 4 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$87.12consensus 12-month target, +127.8% from the last close
Low $75High $90
Buy4
Hold0
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 4 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Oct 7Northcoast ResearchBuy, upgraded$75+96.1%
Sep 18William BlairBuy, maintained——
Aug 20Stifel NicolausBuy, reiterated$85+122.2%
Aug 7NeedhamBuy, maintained$90+135.3%
Aug 7William BlairBuy, maintained——
+2.5%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+12.1%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±4.2%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

nLIGHT seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, nLIGHT averaged +12.1% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+12.8%2021+5.1%2022−6.5%2023+35.5%2024+21.7%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+3.3%4 of 5
Next 10 trading days+2.4%3 of 5
Next 15 trading days+9.8%4 of 5
Next 20 trading days+12.1%4 of 5
Next 30 trading days+7.4%4 of 5

For scale, LASR’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 10.6%.

nLIGHT market cap and key statistics

nLIGHT’s market cap is $2.16B and revenue of $310.7M over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$2.16B
Forward P/E
61.4
EPS, TTM
−$0.25
Gekko Fair Value
$60.37

Trading

Volume
950,912
Avg volume, 20 days
828,649
52-week high
$86.95
52-week low
$28.05
Shares outstanding
57.69M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$310.7M
Profit margin
-4%
Return on equity
-3.8%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
0.0%

Risk and income

Beta
2.37
Typical daily move
±4.2%
Typical 20-day move
±10.6%

nLIGHT peers

nLIGHT’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
NVDANVIDIA−1.0%Neutral14.8% below
AVGOBroadcom−1.3%Neutral1.3% below
MUMicron Technology−1.3%Accumulation27.3% below
AMDAdvanced Micro Devices−0.9%Neutral13.2% above
INTCIntel−1.1%Accumulation1.5% above
TXNTexas Instruments+0.4%Neutral8.2% above

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

nLIGHT stock FAQ

What is nLIGHT’s market cap?

nLIGHT’s market cap is $2.16B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $38.25, with 57.69M shares outstanding.

What is the nLIGHT stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for nLIGHT is $87.12, +127.8% from the last close. Of the 4 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 4 rate it a buy, 0 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is nLIGHT stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate nLIGHT is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $38.25 is 36.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $60.37. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does nLIGHT report earnings next?

nLIGHT is expected to report on Nov 5, 2026, after the market closes (24 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.05 per share on revenue of $68.16M. nLIGHT beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 18.4% on average across the report.

What is nLIGHT’s 52-week high and low?

nLIGHT’s 52-week high is $86.95 and its 52-week low is $28.05; it closed at $38.25 on Oct 12, 2026, +26.3% over the past year.

Is nLIGHT stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and seasonality) and 2 as headwinds (trend and earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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