Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for EC in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every EC insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open EC in Gekko
Ecopetrol (EC) Stock Analysis & Forecast
$17.58+0.20 (+1.2%)
Close on Sep 18, 2026. Page updated Sep 19, 9:16 pm ET.
Gekko Brief
AI summaryEcopetrol (EC) closes at $17.58, up 1.2%, and sits above both its 50-day average of $16.92 and its 200-day average of $14.04. The GekkoIndex reads 57.1, placing the stock in the Neutral zone. Shares trade 28.4% below Gekko Fair Value of $24.57. Over the past year the stock has returned 88.6%, with a six-month gain of 20.1% and a three-month gain of 6%, against a 1.7% pullback over the past month. The 52-week range spans $8.57 to $18.38.
This week's news centers on leadership turnover. Ecopetrol named Carlos Augusto Suárez Rojas as board chairman, replacing Luis Felipe Henao Cardona, alongside a reorganization of the board's six main committees; reports tied the appointment to ties with President Abelardo De La Espriella's administration. Separately, Alfonso Camilo Barco Muñoz was named acting CEO, succeeding Juan Carlos Hurtado Parra following an approved retirement, while board member Hildebrando Vélez Galeano resigned without a stated reason. A broader board overhaul was also approved amid reported corruption allegations and additional management changes.
Looking ahead, the next earnings report is scheduled for 10 November 2026, 51 days out and beyond a typical 20-trading-day holding window. The last quarterly result beat estimates, with EPS of $0.26 versus $0.23 expected, producing a 7.9% reaction. Seasonality over the next 20 trading days has averaged -0.3% across 5 years, rising in 2 of them. Three covering analysts hold a consensus target of $13.91, implying -20.9% versus the current price. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the recent windows.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 20, 2026 from the data above.
Price vs fair value
Close $17.58200-day averageGekko Fair Value $24.57
Key stats
- Market cap
- $36.14B
- P/E ratio
- 11.3
- Forward P/E
- 5.7
- EPS, TTM
- $1.54
- Revenue, TTM
- $125.7T
- Profit margin
- 10.2%
- Dividend yield
- —
- Beta
- -0.05
- Volume
- 1.37M avg 1.60M
- 1-year return
- +88.6%
- Typical daily move
- ±3.2%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±6.9%
- 50-day average
- $16.92
- 200-day average
- $14.04
- Next earnings
- Nov 10
- Shares outstanding
- 2.06B
Ecopetrol swing-trade checklist
Ecopetrol scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive1 mixed1 headwind
- Trendsupportive
Above 50 and 200-day
Close $17.58 is above the 50-day ($16.92) and 200-day ($14.04) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexmixed
57.1, Neutral
Reading 57.1 is in the Neutral zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
28.4% below
Price is 28.4% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 51 days
Next report Nov 10, 2026, 51 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalityheadwind
−0.3% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −0.3% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Ecopetrol stock chart and price history
Ecopetrol closed at $17.58 on Sep 18, 2026, +88.6% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $8.57 to $18.38.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −1.7%
- 3 months
- +6.0%
- 6 months
- +20.1%
- 1 year
- +88.6%
The full EC chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open EC in Gekko
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About Ecopetrol
Ecopetrol works across the oil and gas business, searching for reserves, developing them, and pulling crude and natural gas out of the ground. It has built a name around covering the whole path from raw extraction to finished products such as motor fuels, fuel oils, and petrochemical goods.
Its operations are split into three parts. One part is dedicated to finding and producing oil and gas. A second handles moving those resources, running pipelines and other logistics needed to get output to where it is processed or sold. The third takes crude through refining, turning it into usable fuels and petrochemical products.
The company traces its start back to 1948 and runs its operations out of Bogota, Colombia. It trades under the ticker EC.
- Sector
- Energy minerals
- Website
- ecopetrol.com.co
Ecopetrol GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Ecopetrol’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 57.1, in the Neutral zone, up 5 points over five sessions.
57.1Neutral
Up 5 points over five sessions.
Reading for Sep 18, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 34 | +0.4% | −0.7% | ||
| Accumulation | 188 | +0.6% | +2.4% | ||
| Neutral (current zone) | 340 | +0.4% | +2.4% | ||
| Distribution | 52 | +0.7% | −2.5% | ||
| Selling | 1 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average EC share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the EC price, zone by zone.Track EC in Gekko
Is Ecopetrol stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Ecopetrol trades 28.4% below Gekko Fair Value of $24.57, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Ecopetrol shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$24.57
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 19, 2026
28.4% Undervalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open EC in Gekko
Ecopetrol insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Ecopetrol, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in EC were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for EC, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open EC in Gekko
Ecopetrol earnings: next date and track record
Ecopetrol reports on Nov 10, 2026 (51 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 1 of its last 1 report.
Next earnings report
Nov 10, 2026
51 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.52
- Revenue estimate
- $10.03B
1 of 1reports beat the EPS estimate
±7.9%average move across the report
1 of 1reports followed by a gain
Last earnings call, Mar 4, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Ecopetrol's Q4 and Full Year 2025 call emphasized disciplined execution, strong operational performance and financial resilience in a lower-price environment. Management highlighted they met 2025 targets: average production of ~745,000 bbl/d, transportation >1.1 million bbl/d, refining throughput ~417,000 bbl/d, 121% reserves replacement, a 44% three‑year exploration success rate (16 wells drilled, 7 successful), second-highest net profit in company history and EBITDA of COP 46.7 trillion with an EBITDA margin around 39%. The efficiency and profitability program delivered ~COP 6.6 trillion in 2025 and ~COP 23 trillion over five years. The Group exceeded renewable capacity targets (951 MW) and progressed key projects (Sirius gas marketing, Lorito commercial declaration, Windpeshi civil works, upcoming green hydrogen at Cartagena). Management reiterated capital discipline for 2026 while keeping flexibility to increase CapEx toward the top of the announced COP 22–27 trillion range if higher oil prices persist. Key operational/financial metrics and actions to mitigate headwinds (FX management, time chartering for shipping, contractual hedges, reserve reclassification/monetization) were discussed. The company addressed tax and regulatory uncertainties (DIAN controversy, royalties monetization with ANH, Brazil reserves timing) and provided operational explanations for production variances (weather, infrastructure incidents).
- Guidance
- 2026 guidance and commitments: CapEx plan of COP 22–27 trillion with optionality to move toward COP 27 trillion if oil prices remain high; breakeven estimated ~US$46/barrel for 2026 (down from ~US$50 in 2025) with a tax component of ~US$9–10/bbl; lifting cost target below US$12/bbl assuming current FX trends; Permian activity estimate of ~38–40 wells for the year; Delaware contract in joint venture runs until Dec 31, 2026; dividend recommendation: COP 110 per share (5.1% of distributable profit); Sirius project CapEx (consortium): ~$1.2 billion exploration + ~$2.9 billion for development (financing schemes under evaluation).
- Risks flagged
- DIAN tax controversy (ongoing administrative and judicial processes, potential fines and long timelines); commodity price volatility and freight-cost spikes from geopolitical events (Middle East conflict) impacting margins and FEPC; operational/weather disruptions (rain, infrastructure damage) that temporarily reduced production; regulatory/contractual timing and approvals for reserve incorporations (ANH in Colombia, Brazilian agency for Orca/Gato do Mato); inflationary pressure and higher tax burden; uncertainties around timely execution and financing for large projects (Sirius, Coveñas regasification).
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | $0.26 est $0.23 | $5.77B est $7.14B | +7.9% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Ecopetrol stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Ecopetrol is $13.91, −20.9% from the last close, from 3 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$13.91consensus 12-month target, −20.9% from the last close
Now $17.58Avg $13.91
Low $12High $16.50
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 3 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1 | J.P. Morgan | $16.50 | −6.1% |
| Aug 14 | UBS | $16 | −9.0% |
| Jul 29 | J.P. Morgan | $14.50 | −17.5% |
| Jul 29 | J.P. Morgan | $14.50 | −17.5% |
| Jul 16 | Morgan Stanley | $12 | −31.7% |
+2.4%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
−0.3%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.2%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Ecopetrol seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 19, Ecopetrol averaged −0.3% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | −3.8% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −0.7% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | −0.1% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | −0.3% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | −1.1% | 2 of 5 |
For scale, EC’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 6.9%.
Ecopetrol market cap and key statistics
Ecopetrol’s market cap is $36.14B, with a P/E ratio of 11.3 and revenue of $125.7T over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $36.14B
- P/E ratio
- 11.3
- Forward P/E
- 5.7
- EPS, TTM
- $1.54
- Gekko Fair Value
- $24.57
Trading
- Volume
- 1.37M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 1.60M
- 52-week high
- $18.38
- 52-week low
- $8.57
- Shares outstanding
- 2.06B
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $125.7T
- Profit margin
- 10.2%
- Return on equity
- 16%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +234.5%
Risk and income
- Beta
- -0.05
- Typical daily move
- ±3.2%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±6.9%
Ecopetrol stock news this week
Coverage of Ecopetrol this week reads neutral: 0 positive, 3 neutral and 1 negative headlines.
- Ecopetrol Names Carlos Suárez Rojas as Board ChairmanYahoo Finance, Sep 18
- Colombia state oil firm Ecopetrol taps De La Espriella ally as chair, El Tiempo reportsReuters, Sep 17
- Ecopetrol (EC) Suffers a Larger Drop Than the General Market: Key InsightsZacks Investment Research, Sep 16
- Ecopetrol names Alfonso Barco acting CEO effective todayInvesting.com, Sep 15
- Ecopetrol board member Vélez Galeano resigns effective today By Investing.comInvesting.com Canada, Sep 15
- Ecopetrol approves government-backed board overhaulReuters, Sep 15
Ecopetrol stock FAQ
What is Ecopetrol’s market cap?
Ecopetrol’s market cap is $36.14B at the Sep 18, 2026 close of $17.58, with 2.06B shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 11.3.
What is the Ecopetrol stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Ecopetrol is $13.91, −20.9% from the last close. Of the 3 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 0 rate it a buy, 2 a hold and 1 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Ecopetrol stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Ecopetrol is undervalued: the Sep 18, 2026 close of $17.58 is 28.4% below Gekko Fair Value of $24.57. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Ecopetrol report earnings next?
Ecopetrol is expected to report on Nov 10, 2026 (51 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.52 per share on revenue of $10.03B.
What is Ecopetrol’s 52-week high and low?
Ecopetrol’s 52-week high is $18.38 and its 52-week low is $8.57; it closed at $17.58 on Sep 18, 2026, +88.6% over the past year.
Is Ecopetrol stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (trend, fair value and earnings risk), 1 as mixed (gekkoindex) and 1 as a headwind (seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
Prices and signals update after every US market close; the GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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