Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for ACGL in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every ACGL insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open ACGL in Gekko
NASDAQ: ACGL
Arch Capital (ACGL) Stock Analysis & Forecast
$96.89+0.19 (+0.2%)
Close on Sep 18, 2026. Page updated Sep 19, 9:17 pm ET.
Gekko Brief
AI summaryArch Capital (ACGL) closes at $96.89, up 0.2%, sitting between its 50-day average of $99.42 and 200-day average of $96.28. The GekkoIndex reads 62.1, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone, while the price stands 7.1% below Gekko Fair Value of $104.32. Over the past year the stock has returned 10.9%, though the past month shows a decline of 1.7%.
Recent coverage centers on valuation and analyst positioning rather than operational news. One piece highlights the 7.5% yield on Arch's Series F preferred shares, citing a low payout ratio and substantial common equity. Another notes the stock trading 14.4% below the average analyst target of $110.82 despite trailing-twelve-month EPS of $12.79. Mizuho Securities lowered its price target to $100 from $104 while maintaining a Neutral rating, following similar adjustments from JPMorgan, BMO Capital, Jefferies, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and RBC. Several institutional holders, including Ameritas Advisory Services and Waverly Advisors, reduced their stakes, while Norges Bank and Dimensional Fund Advisors increased theirs.
Arch Capital's next earnings report is set for 26 October 2026, 36 days out, placing it outside a typical 20-trading-day holding window. The company's last report on 28 July showed EPS of $2.56 against an estimate of $2.49, with an average absolute reaction of 2.8% historically and eight beats over the last eight quarters. Seasonality over the next 20 trading days has averaged a 2% gain across five years, positive in three of them. Analyst consensus stands at 6 buy, 6 hold, and 1 sell ratings among 13 firms, with a consensus target of $111.66.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 20, 2026 from the data above.
Price vs fair value
Close $96.89200-day averageGekko Fair Value $104.32
Key stats
- Market cap
- $33.85B
- P/E ratio
- 7.6
- Forward P/E
- 9.8
- EPS, TTM
- $12.74
- Revenue, TTM
- $19.23B
- Profit margin
- 24.4%
- Dividend yield
- —
- Beta
- 0.28
- Volume
- 8.37M avg 3.50M
- 1-year return
- +10.9%
- Typical daily move
- ±1.9%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±4.3%
- 50-day average
- $99.42
- 200-day average
- $96.28
- Next earnings
- Oct 26
- Shares outstanding
- 341.2M
Arch Capital swing-trade checklist
Arch Capital scores 4 supportive, 1 mixed and 0 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
4 supportive1 mixed0 headwinds
- Trendmixed
Averages disagree
Close $96.89 sits between the 50-day ($99.42) and 200-day ($96.28) averages, or the averages disagree.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
62.1, Accumulation
Reading 62.1 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
7.1% below
Price is 7.1% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 36 days
Next report Oct 26, 2026, 36 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+2.0% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +2% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Arch Capital stock chart and price history
Arch Capital closed at $96.89 on Sep 18, 2026, +10.9% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $82.45 to $107.09.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −1.7%
- 3 months
- +6.3%
- 6 months
- +5.1%
- 1 year
- +10.9%
The full ACGL chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open ACGL in Gekko
Follow Arch Capital through every session
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About Arch Capital
Arch Capital writes insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance policies for clients spread across the United States, Canada, Bermuda, Britain, Europe, and Australia. Its insurance work touches areas such as commercial vehicles, multiperil business coverage, liability tied to finance and professional services, casualty risks, property, and workers compensation. On the reinsurance side, it backs casualty, marine, aviation, and property exposures, including losses from major catastrophes.
The business runs through three divisions covering insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage products. Within mortgage, it insures home loans in the U.S. that are largely destined for purchase by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, handles reinsurance and underwriting tied to domestic credit-risk transfer deals, and extends similar mortgage-related coverage internationally. Rather than selling directly, Arch Capital reaches clients through independent brokers who operate in both retail and wholesale markets.
Dating back to 1995 and once operating under the name Risk Capital Holdings, the company now runs its operations from Pembroke, Bermuda. Its stock is listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker ACGL.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Finance
- Industry
- Multi-line insurance
- Website
- archgroup.com
Arch Capital GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Arch Capital’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 62.1, in the Accumulation zone, down 2.6 points over five sessions.
62.1Accumulation
Down 2.6 points over five sessions.
Reading for Sep 18, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 18 | +3.5% | +7.2% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 205 | +0.2% | +1.3% | ||
| Neutral | 393 | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||
| Distribution | 41 | +0.2% | +1.0% | ||
| Selling | 5 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average ACGL share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the ACGL price, zone by zone.Track ACGL in Gekko
Is Arch Capital stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Arch Capital trades 7.1% below Gekko Fair Value of $104.32, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Arch Capital shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$104.32
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 19, 2026
7.1% Undervalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open ACGL in Gekko
Arch Capital insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Arch Capital, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in ACGL were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for ACGL, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open ACGL in Gekko
Buybacks
Arch Capital has been buying back its own shares.
- Latest authorization
- $3.00B, Apr 20, 2026
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $1.15B
- As a share of market cap
- 3.39%
- Trailing four quarters
- $3.48B
From company filings.
Arch Capital earnings: next date and track record
Arch Capital reports on Oct 26, 2026 (36 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Oct 26, 2026
36 days away
- EPS estimate
- $1.88
- Revenue estimate
- $4.08B
8 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±2.8%average move across the report
1 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Jul 28, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Arch Capital reported Q2 2026 after-tax operating income of $893 million ($2.56 EPS) with strong underwriting across all three segments. The company repurchased $1.95 billion in shares in H1 2026, and book value per share grew 2.8% in the quarter (4.5% YTD). Insurance was impacted by Iran conflict-related catastrophe losses, while reinsurance delivered $410 million underwriting income with a 79.9% ex-cat combined ratio. Net premiums written in reinsurance declined 10% YoY amid increased competition.
- Guidance
- Management acknowledges an increasingly competitive, softening market environment but notes early-stage dynamics with mixed pricing trends by line. Casualty lines and specialty London market segments offer growth opportunities where pricing supports return objectives. No specific earnings targets were provided.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 2026 | $2.56 est $2.49 | $4.05B est $4.36B | +0.6% |
| Apr 28, 2026 | $2.50 est $2.46 | $4.35B est $4.55B | −3.8% |
| Feb 9, 2026 | $2.98 est $2.59 | $3.65B est $4.19B | −3.1% |
| Oct 27, 2025 | $3.56 est $2.43 | $4.98B est $4.52B | −2.8% |
| Jul 29, 2025 | $2.58 est $2.30 | $5.21B est $4.34B | −1.0% |
| Apr 29, 2025 | $1.54 est $1.32 | $4.59B est $4.56B | −0.6% |
| Feb 10, 2025 | $2.42 est $1.93 | $4.51B est $4.02B | −4.2% |
| Oct 30, 2024 | $1.99 est $1.95 | $4.55B est $3.93B | −6.0% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Arch Capital stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Arch Capital is $111.66, +15.2% from the last close, from 13 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$111.66consensus 12-month target, +15.2% from the last close
Now $96.89Avg $111.66
Low $93High $134
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 13 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15 | Mizuho Securities | $100 | +3.2% |
| Aug 11 | J.P. Morgan | $118 | +21.8% |
| Aug 11 | KBW | $99 | +2.2% |
| Aug 4 | BMO Capital | $102 | +5.3% |
| Aug 3 | Cantor Fitzgerald | $110 | +13.5% |
+1.3%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+2.0%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±1.9%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Arch Capital seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 19, Arch Capital averaged +2.0% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | −1.6% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −1.0% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +1.4% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +2.0% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +5.6% | 3 of 5 |
For scale, ACGL’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 4.3%.
Arch Capital market cap and key statistics
Arch Capital’s market cap is $33.85B, with a P/E ratio of 7.6 and revenue of $19.23B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $33.85B
- P/E ratio
- 7.6
- Forward P/E
- 9.8
- EPS, TTM
- $12.74
- Gekko Fair Value
- $104.32
Trading
- Volume
- 8.37M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 3.50M
- 52-week high
- $107.09
- 52-week low
- $82.45
- Shares outstanding
- 341.2M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $19.23B
- Profit margin
- 24.4%
- Return on equity
- 19.9%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- −7.1%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.28
- Typical daily move
- ±1.9%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±4.3%
Arch Capital stock news this week
Coverage of Arch Capital this week reads positive: 8 positive, 3 neutral and 1 negative headlines.
- Arch Capital: 7.5% Yielding Preferred Stock Is Attractive Thanks To Low Payout RatioSeeking Alpha, Sep 19
- Arch Capital Group stock trades below analyst targets after strong recent earningsAD HOC NEWS, Sep 19
- Here’s How Much You Would Have Made Owning Arch Capital Group Stock In The Last 5 YearsBenzinga, Sep 18
- Ameritas Advisory Services LLC Lowers Stake in Arch Capital Group Ltd. $ACGLMarketBeat, Sep 18
- Waverly Advisors LLC Sells 56,207 Shares of Arch Capital Group Ltd. $ACGLMarketBeat, Sep 17
- Mizuho Securities Adjusts Arch Capital Price Target to $100 From $104, Maintains Neutral Ratingmarketscreener.com, Sep 16
Arch Capital peers
Arch Capital’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| PGRProgressive | Accumulation | 3.9% below |
| MFCManulife Financial | Neutral | 10.8% above |
| ALLAllstate | Accumulation | 5.6% below |
| METMetLife | Neutral | 2.5% below |
| AFLAFLAC | Accumulation | 2.9% below |
| SLFSun Life Financial | Neutral | 9.1% above |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Arch Capital stock FAQ
What is Arch Capital’s market cap?
Arch Capital’s market cap is $33.85B at the Sep 18, 2026 close of $96.89, with 341.2M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 7.6.
What is the Arch Capital stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Arch Capital is $111.66, +15.2% from the last close. Of the 13 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 6 rate it a buy, 6 a hold and 1 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Arch Capital stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Arch Capital is undervalued: the Sep 18, 2026 close of $96.89 is 7.1% below Gekko Fair Value of $104.32. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Arch Capital report earnings next?
Arch Capital is expected to report on Oct 26, 2026 (36 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.88 per share on revenue of $4.08B. Arch Capital beat the earnings estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports, moving 2.8% on average across the report.
What is Arch Capital’s 52-week high and low?
Arch Capital’s 52-week high is $107.09 and its 52-week low is $82.45; it closed at $96.89 on Sep 18, 2026, +10.9% over the past year.
Is Arch Capital stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 4 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value, earnings risk and seasonality), 1 as mixed (trend). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
Prices and signals update after every US market close; the GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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