Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for ACGL in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every ACGL insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open ACGL in Gekko
NASDAQ: ACGL
Arch Capital (ACGL) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Nov 4 close
$110.68+2.89 (+2.7%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryNov 4 closeArch Capital reached a new 52-week high this week, with shares touching $107.17 and later closing at $110.68, extending a multi-day winning streak tied to strong third-quarter 2026 results that exceeded analyst expectations. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods raised its price target on the stock to $106 from $95 while maintaining a Market Perform rating following the earnings beat. Commentary from CEO Nicolas Papadopoulo also highlighted the company's use of third-party capital as a lower-cost tool for managing net exposure amid abundant reinsurance capacity.
The stock trades at $110.68, above both its 50-day average of $98.47 and 200-day average of $97.07, with the shorter average above the longer one. The GekkoIndex reading sits at 43.4, placing it in the Distribution zone, down 8.6 over five days. Price stands 6.4% above Gekko Fair Value of $104.06.
The next earnings date falls on 8 February 2027, 95 days out and beyond a typical 20-trading-day holding window. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the respective 90-day and 30-day windows. Seasonality from this point in the calendar has averaged a 2.2% gain over the next 20 trading days across 5 years, rising in 4 of them. Analyst consensus among 16 firms shows 7 buy, 8 hold, and 1 sell ratings, with a consensus target of $112.74. The gap to Gekko Fair Value bears watching given the Distribution zone reading.
Written by AI from the Nov 4, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Arch Capital price vs fair value
Close $110.68200-day averageGekko Fair Value $104.06
Arch Capital quick facts
- Market cap
- $37.77B
- P/E ratio
- 8.9
- Forward P/E
- 10.7
- EPS, TTM
- $12.23
- Revenue, TTM
- $18.78B
- Profit margin
- 23.3%
- Dividend yield
- —
- Beta
- 0.19
- Volume
- 2.30M avg 2.25M
- 1-year return
- +28.7%
- Typical daily move
- ±2.3%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±4.3%
- 50-day average
- $98.47
- 200-day average
- $97.07
- Next earnings
- Feb 8
- Shares outstanding
- 326.4M
Arch Capital swing-trade checklist
Arch Capital scores 3 supportive, 0 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive0 mixed2 headwinds
- Trendsupportive
Above 50 and 200-day
Close $110.68 is above the 50-day ($98.47) and 200-day ($97.07) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexheadwind
43.4, Distribution
Reading 43.4 is in the Distribution zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valueheadwind
6.4% above
Price is 6.4% above Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% above).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 95 days
Next report Feb 8, 2027, 95 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+2.2% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +2.2% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Arch Capital stock chart and price history
Arch Capital closed at $110.68 on Nov 4, 2026, +28.7% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $85.99 to $110.73.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- +16.7%
- 3 months
- +11.5%
- 6 months
- +16.9%
- 1 year
- +28.7%
The full ACGL chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open ACGL in Gekko
Follow Arch Capital through every session
Put ACGL on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.
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About Arch Capital
Arch Capital writes insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance policies for clients spread across the United States, Canada, Bermuda, Britain, Europe, and Australia. Its insurance work touches areas such as commercial vehicles, multiperil business coverage, liability tied to finance and professional services, casualty risks, property, and workers compensation. On the reinsurance side, it backs casualty, marine, aviation, and property exposures, including losses from major catastrophes.
The business runs through three divisions covering insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage products. Within mortgage, it insures home loans in the U.S. that are largely destined for purchase by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, handles reinsurance and underwriting tied to domestic credit-risk transfer deals, and extends similar mortgage-related coverage internationally. Rather than selling directly, Arch Capital reaches clients through independent brokers who operate in both retail and wholesale markets.
Dating back to 1995 and once operating under the name Risk Capital Holdings, the company now runs its operations from Pembroke, Bermuda. Its stock is listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker ACGL.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Finance
- Industry
- Multi-line insurance
- Website
- archgroup.com
Arch Capital GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Arch Capital’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 43.4, in the Distribution zone, down 8.6 points over five sessions.
43.4Distribution
Down 8.6 points over five sessions, from the Neutral zone.
Reading for Nov 4, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 19 | +3.4% | +7.4% | ||
| Accumulation | 228 | +0.2% | +1.5% | ||
| Neutral | 404 | +0.1% | −0.1% | ||
| Distribution (current zone) | 41 | +0.2% | +1.0% | ||
| Selling | 5 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average ACGL share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Distribution readings averaged +1.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Distribution zone: Institutions potentially offloading. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the ACGL price, zone by zone.Track ACGL in Gekko
Is Arch Capital stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Arch Capital trades 6.4% above Gekko Fair Value of $104.06, so the shares are overvalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Arch Capital shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$104.06
Gekko Fair Value, Nov 4, 2026
6.4% Overvalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 8.9% below the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open ACGL in Gekko
Arch Capital insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Arch Capital, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in ACGL were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for ACGL, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open ACGL in Gekko
Buybacks
Arch Capital has been buying back its own shares.
- Latest authorization
- $3.00B, Apr 20, 2026
- Bought back, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026
- $1.43B
- As a share of market cap
- 3.79%
- Trailing four quarters
- $4.18B
From company filings.
Arch Capital earnings: next date and track record
Arch Capital reports on Feb 8, 2027 (95 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Feb 8, 2027
95 days away
- EPS estimate
- $2.53
- Revenue estimate
- $3.90B
8 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±2.8%average move across the report
1 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Jul 28, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Arch Capital reported Q2 2026 after-tax operating income of $893 million ($2.56 EPS) with strong underwriting across all three segments. The company repurchased $1.95 billion in shares in H1 2026, and book value per share grew 2.8% in the quarter (4.5% YTD). Insurance was impacted by Iran conflict-related catastrophe losses, while reinsurance delivered $410 million underwriting income with a 79.9% ex-cat combined ratio. Net premiums written in reinsurance declined 10% YoY amid increased competition.
- Guidance
- Management acknowledges an increasingly competitive, softening market environment but notes early-stage dynamics with mixed pricing trends by line. Casualty lines and specialty London market segments offer growth opportunities where pricing supports return objectives. No specific earnings targets were provided.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 2026 | $2.56 est $2.49 | $4.05B est $4.36B | +0.6% |
| Apr 28, 2026 | $2.50 est $2.46 | $4.35B est $4.55B | −3.8% |
| Feb 9, 2026 | $2.98 est $2.59 | $3.65B est $4.19B | −3.1% |
| Oct 27, 2025 | $3.56 est $2.43 | $4.98B est $4.52B | −2.8% |
| Jul 29, 2025 | $2.58 est $2.30 | $5.21B est $4.34B | −1.0% |
| Apr 29, 2025 | $1.54 est $1.32 | $4.59B est $4.56B | −0.6% |
| Feb 10, 2025 | $2.42 est $1.93 | $4.51B est $4.02B | −4.2% |
| Oct 30, 2024 | $1.99 est $1.95 | $4.55B est $3.93B | −6.0% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Arch Capital stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Arch Capital is $112.74, +1.9% from the last close, from 16 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$112.74consensus 12-month target, +1.9% from the last close
Now $110.68Avg $112.74
Low $95High $125
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 16 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | BMO Capital | $105 | −5.1% |
| Nov 4 | KBW | $106 | −4.2% |
| Nov 3 | J.P. Morgan | $115 | +3.9% |
| Nov 2 | Cantor Fitzgerald | $111 | +0.3% |
| Nov 2 | UBS | $125 | +12.9% |
+1.0%average 20-day move after past Distribution readings
+2.2%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.3%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Arch Capital seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Nov 4, Arch Capital averaged +2.2% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +1.6% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +1.0% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +3.1% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +2.2% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +0.2% | 3 of 5 |
For scale, ACGL’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 4.3%.
Arch Capital market cap and key statistics
Arch Capital’s market cap is $37.77B, with a P/E ratio of 8.9 and revenue of $18.78B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $37.77B
- P/E ratio
- 8.9
- Forward P/E
- 10.7
- EPS, TTM
- $12.23
- Gekko Fair Value
- $104.06
Trading
- Volume
- 2.30M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 2.25M
- 52-week high
- $110.73
- 52-week low
- $85.99
- Shares outstanding
- 326.4M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $18.78B
- Profit margin
- 23.3%
- Return on equity
- 18.7%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- −15.7%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.19
- Typical daily move
- ±2.3%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±4.3%
Arch Capital stock news this week
Coverage of Arch Capital this week reads positive: 13 positive, 10 neutral and 0 negative headlines.
- Arch Capital Group Ltd. $ACGL Stock: Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group Inc. Lowers PositionMarketBeat, Nov 4
- 288,612 Shares of Arch Capital Group Ltd. $ACGL Purchased by ARGA Investment Management LPMarketBeat, Nov 4
- Keefe Bruyette raises Arch Capital stock price target on earningsInvesting.com, Nov 3
- Arch Capital Group Ltd. stock outperforms competitors despite losses on the dayMarketWatch, Nov 3
- Arch Capital Group Ltd. $ACGL Stock Holdings Lifted by International Assets Investment Management LLCDefense World, Nov 3
- Arch Capital Group Ltd. stock outperforms competitors on strong trading dayMarketWatch, Nov 2
Arch Capital peers
Arch Capital’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| PGRProgressive | Neutral | 5.3% above |
| MFCManulife Financial | Neutral | 14.5% above |
| ALLAllstate | Neutral | 5.5% above |
| METMetLife | Neutral | 1.1% above |
| AFLAFLAC | Neutral | 7.0% above |
| SLFSun Life Financial | Neutral | 11.2% above |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Arch Capital stock FAQ
What is Arch Capital’s market cap?
Arch Capital’s market cap is $37.77B at the Nov 4, 2026 close of $110.68, with 326.4M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 8.9.
What is the Arch Capital stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Arch Capital is $112.74, +1.9% from the last close. Of the 16 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 7 rate it a buy, 8 a hold and 1 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Arch Capital stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Arch Capital is overvalued: the Nov 4, 2026 close of $110.68 is 6.4% above Gekko Fair Value of $104.06. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Arch Capital report earnings next?
Arch Capital is expected to report on Feb 8, 2027 (95 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $2.53 per share on revenue of $3.90B. Arch Capital beat the earnings estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports, moving 2.8% on average across the report.
What is Arch Capital’s 52-week high and low?
Arch Capital’s 52-week high is $110.73 and its 52-week low is $85.99; it closed at $110.68 on Nov 4, 2026, +28.7% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $116.47 on Oct 7, 2024.
Is Arch Capital stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (trend, earnings risk and seasonality) and 2 as headwinds (gekkoindex and fair value). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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