Insider buying last 90 days
$75Kin 1 open-market purchase
| Filed | Insider | Type | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16 | Stewart David Raymond director | Purchase | $75K |
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
NASDAQ: AAON
AAON (AAON) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Sep 28 close
$85.34−3.76 (−4.2%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryAAON shares fell 4.2% to $85.34 this week, giving back part of a run that had lifted the stock on strong Q2 results, easing Treasury yields and falling crude prices, and a wave of analyst attention. DA Davidson initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $110 price target, citing AAON's HVAC platform and BASX data center unit growth, while Argus raised its target to $75.00. The stock was also removed from the S&P Homebuilders Select Industry Index, and coverage has focused on its order backlog and projected revenue growth alongside ongoing operational execution such as ERP rollouts and factory efficiency.
The close of $85.34 sits between the 50-day average of $85.09 and the 200-day average of $97.75, with the stock down 32.1% over three months but up 9.2% over one month. The GekkoIndex reading of 52 places the stock in the Neutral zone, down from a higher reading five days ago. Price sits 12.1% below Gekko Fair Value of $97.04.
The next earnings report is scheduled for 5 November 2026, before the open, 37 days away and outside a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior report on 10 August showed EPS of $0.69 against an estimate of $0.52, with a -9.5% reaction. Over the last 90 days, one open-market insider purchase totaling $74,660 has been recorded. Seasonality from this point in the calendar has averaged +6.7% over the next 20 trading days across 5 years, rising in 4 of them. Analyst consensus among 5 firms stands at 4 buy and 1 hold, with a consensus target of $134.75.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.
AAON price vs fair value
Close $85.34200-day averageGekko Fair Value $97.04
AAON quick facts
- Market cap
- $6.99B
- P/E ratio
- 46.9
- Forward P/E
- 21.8
- EPS, TTM
- $1.90
- Revenue, TTM
- $1.93B
- Profit margin
- 8.2%
- Dividend yield
- 0.47%
- Beta
- 1.41
- Volume
- 1.73M avg 1.21M
- 1-year return
- −3.2%
- Typical daily move
- ±4.9%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±8.4%
- 50-day average
- $85.09
- 200-day average
- $97.75
- Next earnings
- Nov 5 before open
- Shares outstanding
- 82.45M
AAON swing-trade checklist
AAON scores 4 supportive, 2 mixed and 0 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
4 supportive2 mixed0 headwinds
- Trendmixed
Averages disagree
Close $85.34 sits between the 50-day ($85.09) and 200-day ($97.75) averages, or the averages disagree.
See the chart - GekkoIndexmixed
52, Neutral
Reading 52 is in the Neutral zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
12.1% below
Price is 12.1% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneysupportive
Leans bullish
Last 90 days: 1 open-market insider purchase.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 37 days
Next report Nov 5, 2026, 37 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+6.7% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +6.7% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
AAON stock chart and price history
AAON closed at $85.34 on Sep 28, 2026, −3.2% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $73.19 to $150.46.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- +9.2%
- 3 months
- −32.1%
- 6 months
- +4.7%
- 1 year
- −3.2%
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About AAON
AAON designs, builds, and sells heating and cooling equipment to commercial customers across the United States and Canada. Its product lineup spans rooftop units, data center and cleanroom cooling systems, chillers, air handling units, energy recovery ventilators, condensing units, geothermal and water-source heat pumps, coils, and control systems, giving it a broad footprint within HVAC equipment.
The company runs through three divisions, AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BasX, each contributing to its overall manufacturing and product range. It reaches buyers in sectors such as retail, manufacturing, education, hospitality, supermarkets, data centers, and healthcare and pharmaceuticals, and it sells to them both through independent manufacturing representatives and its own direct sales force.
AAON was founded in 1987 and operates out of Tulsa, Oklahoma. Its shares trade on the NASDAQ under the ticker AAON.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Producer manufacturing
- Industry
- Industrial machinery
- Website
- aaon.com
AAON GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
AAON’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 52, in the Neutral zone, down 13 points over five sessions.
52Neutral
Down 13 points over five sessions, from the Accumulation zone.
Reading for Sep 28, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 59 | −0.9% | −1.3% |
| Accumulation | 204 | −0.5% | +0.3% |
| Neutral (current zone) | 361 | +1.3% | +2.8% |
| Distribution | 38 | −0.5% | −0.5% |
| Selling | 10 | −1.3% | +6.3% |
Average AAON share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the AAON price, zone by zone.Track AAON in Gekko
Is AAON stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
AAON trades 12.1% below Gekko Fair Value of $97.04, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what AAON shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$97.04
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 29, 2026
12.1% Undervalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open AAON in Gekko
AAON insider and Congress trading
Insiders filed 1 open-market purchase in AAON worth $75K, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in AAON were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for AAON, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open AAON in Gekko
Buybacks
AAON has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $1.27M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.02%
From company filings.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Mar 31
0of the funds Gekko tracks hold AAON.
0added0opened0trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
AAON earnings: next date and track record
AAON reports on Nov 5, 2026, before the open (37 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 5, 2026
Expected before the open, 37 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.57
- Revenue estimate
- $596.1M
5 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±15.2%average move across the report
5 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Aug 10, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- AAON reported a very strong Q2 2026 with record net sales of $627 million, up 101% year-over-year, driven by robust demand for both AAON and BASX brands and improved manufacturing throughput from recent capacity investments (notably the Memphis facility). BASX sales grew 216% YoY, reflecting data center demand and expanded capacity. Gross profit increased 84% to $152.5 million, though gross margin declined to 24.3% from 26.6% due to ramp-related costs, outsourcing, and inflationary price/cost timing. Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA doubled to $94.2 million, and SG&A leverage improved as a percent of sales. Management highlighted operational improvements, supply chain and pricing actions, and a healthy pipeline for future data center orders despite some lumpiness in timing. They raised 2026 full-year outlook for sales and provided margin and expense guidance while noting mix and ramp pressures will weigh on near-term consolidated margins. Management emphasized long-term market opportunity, margin improvement drivers (higher utilization, productivity, pricing), and continued investments in finance and supply chain capabilities to improve forward-looking visibility and execution.
- Guidance
- Updated 2026 outlook: sales growth of 55% to 60%; gross margin of 25% to 26%; SG&A expense of 13% to 14% of sales; depreciation & amortization of $95M to $100M.
- Risks flagged
- Supply-chain constraints and inflationary cost pressures (raw materials, freight, component availability such as fans); price/cost timing lag (company behind on some pricing recovery); lumpiness and timing risk of large data-center orders; margin pressure from ramping new capacity (Memphis) and increased outsourcing; potential operational execution challenges while scaling rapidly.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 2026 | $0.69 est $0.52 | $627.0M est $508.8M | −9.5% |
| May 7, 2026 | $0.48 est $0.29 | $496.9M est $381.1M | +42.1% |
| Mar 2, 2026 | $0.39 est $0.45 | $424.2M est $372.4M | −5.8% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | $0.37 est $0.33 | $384.2M est $374.1M | +12.9% |
| Aug 11, 2025 | $0.22 est $0.31 | $311.6M est $361.4M | +3.0% |
| Apr 30, 2025 | $0.37 est $0.25 | $322.1M est $361.7M | +8.2% |
| Feb 27, 2025 | $0.30 est $0.53 | $297.7M est $309.6M | −24.7% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | $0.63 est $0.57 | $327.3M est $315.8M | +15.0% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
AAON stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for AAON is $134.75, +57.9% from the last close, from 5 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$134.75consensus 12-month target, +57.9% from the last close
Now $85.34Avg $134.75
Low $110High $135
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 5 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15 | D.A. Davidson | $110 | +28.9% |
| Aug 13 | William Blair | — | — |
| Aug 11 | Oppenheimer | $125 | +46.5% |
| Aug 11 | Robert W. Baird | $135 | +58.2% |
| Aug 11 | KeyBanc | — | — |
+2.8%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+6.7%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±4.9%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
AAON seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, AAON averaged +6.7% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +3.7% | 5 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +3.7% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +2.5% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +6.7% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +21.6% | 5 of 5 |
For scale, AAON’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 8.4%.
AAON market cap and key statistics
AAON’s market cap is $6.99B, with a P/E ratio of 46.9 and revenue of $1.93B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $6.99B
- P/E ratio
- 46.9
- Forward P/E
- 21.8
- EPS, TTM
- $1.90
- Gekko Fair Value
- $97.04
Trading
- Volume
- 1.73M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 1.21M
- 52-week high
- $150.46
- 52-week low
- $73.19
- Shares outstanding
- 82.45M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $1.93B
- Profit margin
- 8.2%
- Return on equity
- 17.3%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +257.9%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 1.41
- Typical daily move
- ±4.9%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±8.4%
- Dividend yield
- 0.47%
AAON stock news this week
Coverage of AAON this week reads positive: 6 positive, 2 neutral and 1 negative headlines.
- AAON Inc (AAON) Shares Fall 4.2% -- What GF Score of 90 Tells InvestorsGuruFocus, Sep 28
- AAON Jan 2027 90.000 call (AAON270115C00090000) interactive stock chartYahoo Finance UK, Sep 28
- AAON Inc (AAON) Shares Surge 5.7% -- What GF Score of 90 Tells IGuruFocus, Sep 26
- AAON, Wabash, and Blue Bird Shares Skyrocket, What You Need To KnowYahoo Finance, Sep 26
- AAON Stock Rises As DA Davidson Sets $110 Price TargetStocksToTrade, Sep 26
- Is Media Spotlight Altering The Investment Case For AAON (AAON)?Simply Wall Street, Sep 25
AAON peers
AAON’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| LRCXLam Research | Neutral | 7.7% above |
| AMATApplied Materials | Neutral | 11.5% below |
| PHParker-Hannifin | Neutral | 5.9% above |
| TTTrane Technologies | Neutral | 13.7% above |
| JCIJohnson Controls International | Neutral | 11.4% above |
| CARRCarrier Global | Accumulation | 4.9% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
AAON stock FAQ
What is AAON’s market cap?
AAON’s market cap is $6.99B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $85.34, with 82.45M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 46.9.
What is the AAON stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for AAON is $134.75, +57.9% from the last close. Of the 5 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 4 rate it a buy, 1 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is AAON stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate AAON is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $85.34 is 12.1% below Gekko Fair Value of $97.04. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does AAON report earnings next?
AAON is expected to report on Nov 5, 2026, before the market opens (37 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.57 per share on revenue of $596.1M. AAON beat the earnings estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports, moving 15.2% on average across the report.
What is AAON’s 52-week high and low?
AAON’s 52-week high is $150.46 and its 52-week low is $73.19; it closed at $85.34 on Sep 28, 2026, −3.2% over the past year.
Is AAON stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 4 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (fair value, smart money, earnings risk and seasonality), 2 as mixed (trend and gekkoindex). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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