Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for RARE in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every RARE insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open RARE in Gekko
NASDAQ: RARE
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$15.30−0.18 (−1.2%)
Gekko Brief
Oct 12 closeUltragenyx Pharmaceutical closed at $15.30 on 12 October 2026, -1.2% on the day. The price sits below both the 50-day ($19.87) and 200-day ($23.52) moving averages, inside a 52-week range of $12.73 to $39.89. The GekkoIndex reads 61.9, in the Accumulation zone, down 4.7 points over five sessions. Gekko Fair Value is $22.65, so the price is 32.5% below it.
The next earnings report is due on 3 November 2026, 22 days away (after close). Over the last 8 reports the company beat the earnings estimate 4 times, with an average move of 5.3% across the report. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days from this point averaged -1.5% over the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
20 firms rate the stock: 10 buy, 10 hold and 0 sell, with a consensus target of $26.79. A typical daily move is about 4.9%, and a typical 20-day move about 9.2%. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 items read supportive and 3 read as a headwind (trend, earnings risk, seasonality).
A plain summary of the figures as of the Oct 12, 2026 close.
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical price vs fair value
Close $15.30200-day averageGekko Fair Value $22.65
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical quick facts
- Market cap
- $1.51B
- P/E ratio
- —
- Forward P/E
- —
- EPS, TTM
- −$5.82
- Revenue, TTM
- $717.0M
- Profit margin
- -81.7%
- Dividend yield
- —
- Beta
- 0.35
- Volume
- 2.90M avg 5.50M
- 1-year return
- −51.7%
- Typical daily move
- ±4.9%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±9.2%
- 50-day average
- $19.87
- 200-day average
- $23.52
- Next earnings
- Nov 3 after close
- Shares outstanding
- 98.59M
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical swing-trade checklist
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical scores 2 supportive, 0 mixed and 3 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
2 supportive0 mixed3 headwinds
- Trendheadwind
Below 50 and 200-day
Close $15.30 is below the 50-day ($19.87) and 200-day ($23.52) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
61.9, Accumulation
Reading 61.9 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
32.5% below
Price is 32.5% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 22 days
Reports on Nov 3, 2026, 22 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalityheadwind
−1.5% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −1.5% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical stock chart and price history
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical closed at $15.30 on Oct 12, 2026, −51.7% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $12.73 to $39.89.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- +7.0%
- 3 months
- −52.2%
- 6 months
- −35.3%
- 1 year
- −51.7%
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About Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical develops and sells biologic treatments for rare and ultra-rare genetic disorders, with operations reaching across North America, Europe and other international markets. Its marketed products include Crysvita, an antibody therapy for X-linked hypophosphatemia and tumor-induced osteomalacia, Mepsevii for Mucopolysaccharidosis VII, Dojolvi for long-chain fatty acid oxidation disorders, and Evkeeza for homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia.
Beyond its approved therapies, the company is working on a set of experimental treatments, including gene therapies for glycogen storage disease type Ia and ornithine transcarbamylase deficiency, along with candidates targeting osteogenesis imperfecta, Angelman syndrome, Wilson disease and glycogen storage disease type III. To support this work, Ultragenyx relies on collaboration and licensing arrangements with outside partners such as Kyowa Kirin, Saint Louis University, REGENXBIO, Bayer Healthcare, GeneTx, Mereo, the University of Pennsylvania, Arcturus Therapeutics, Solid Biosciences and Daiichi Sankyo.
Ultragenyx was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Novato, California. Its shares are listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker RARE.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health technology
- Industry
- Pharmaceuticals: major
- Website
- ultragenyx.com
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 61.9, in the Accumulation zone, down 4.7 points over five sessions.
61.9Accumulation
Down 4.7 points over five sessions.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 66 | +2.0% | +3.7% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 287 | −0.4% | −0.6% | ||
| Neutral | 307 | −1.2% | −3.8% | ||
| Distribution | 21 | +4.0% | −6.8% | ||
| Selling | 1 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average RARE share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the RARE price, zone by zone.Track RARE in Gekko
Is Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical trades 32.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $22.65, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$22.65
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026
32.5% Undervalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 44.9% below the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open RARE in Gekko
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in RARE were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for RARE, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open RARE in Gekko
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
0of the funds Gekko tracks hold RARE.
0added0opened0trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical earnings: next date and track record
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical reports on Nov 3, 2026, after the close (22 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 3, 2026
Expected after the close, 22 days away
- EPS estimate
- −$0.93
- Revenue estimate
- $182.6M
4 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±5.3%average move across the report
1 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Aug 4, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Ultragenyx reported its highest quarterly revenue in company history in Q2 2026, supporting reaffirmed full-year guidance. The company is preparing for two potential gene therapy launches: DTX-401 for GSD 1A (PDUFA date imminent) and UX-111 for Sanfilippo syndrome Type A. Phase III ASPIRE study for GTX-102 in Angelman syndrome expects top-line results in September-October 2026. Management targets profitability in 2027.
- Guidance
- Full-year revenue guidance reaffirmed following record quarterly revenue. Management projects a clear path to profitability in 2027, driven by current product growth, potential gene therapy launch contributions from DTX-401 and UX-111, and disciplined expense management.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | −$0.90 est −$1.27 | $214.0M est $183.1M | −0.4% |
| May 5, 2026 | −$1.54 est −$1.46 | $136.0M est $158.2M | +4.5% |
| Feb 12, 2026 | −$1.29 est −$1.15 | $207.0M est $198.6M | −14.1% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | −$1.81 est −$1.21 | $159.9M est $199.8M | −4.8% |
| Aug 5, 2025 | −$1.17 est −$1.32 | $166.5M est $165.9M | −1.4% |
| May 6, 2025 | −$1.57 est −$1.64 | $139.3M est $162.4M | −14.0% |
| Feb 13, 2025 | −$1.39 est −$1.27 | $164.9M est $158.7M | −2.2% |
| Nov 5, 2024 | −$1.40 est −$1.47 | $139.5M est $146.5M | −1.1% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical is $26.79, +75.1% from the last close, from 20 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$26.79consensus 12-month target, +75.1% from the last close
Now $15.30Avg $26.79
Low $16High $68
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 20 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | Bank of America Securities | $20 | +30.7% |
| Oct 8 | RBC Capital | $19 | +24.2% |
| Oct 8 | H.C. Wainwright | $25 | +63.4% |
| Sep 25 | H.C. Wainwright | $25 | +63.4% |
| Sep 21 | Evercore ISI | $18 | +17.6% |
−0.6%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
−1.5%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±4.9%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical averaged −1.5% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +2.4% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −0.9% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +3.8% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | −1.5% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | −2.4% | 2 of 5 |
For scale, RARE’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 9.2%.
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical market cap and key statistics
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical’s market cap is $1.51B and revenue of $717.0M over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $1.51B
- EPS, TTM
- −$5.82
- Gekko Fair Value
- $22.65
Trading
- Volume
- 2.90M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 5.50M
- 52-week high
- $39.89
- 52-week low
- $12.73
- Shares outstanding
- 98.59M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $717.0M
- Profit margin
- -81.7%
- Return on equity
- -608%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- 0.0%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.35
- Typical daily move
- ±4.9%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±9.2%
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical stock news this week
Coverage of Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical this week reads positive: 7 positive, 4 neutral and 2 negative headlines.
- Analyzing Atara Biotherapeutics (NASDAQ:ATRA) & Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (NASDAQ:RARE)Defense World, Oct 12
- Funds from operations of Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. – NASDAQ:RARETradingView, Oct 9
- Ultragenyx cashes in Genglycos-derived priority review voucher for $210MFirstWord PHARMA, Oct 9
- Ultragenyx Sells Rare Pediatric Disease Priority Review Voucher | PharmExecPharmaceutical Executive, Oct 8
- Ultragenyx to Sell Rare Pediatric Disease Voucher for $210 MillionBioPharm International, Oct 8
- Ultragenyx to Sell Rare Pediatric Disease Priority Review Voucher for $210 MillionPharmaceutical Executive, Oct 8
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical peers
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| LLYEli Lilly | Neutral | 14.7% above |
| JNJJohnson & Johnson | Neutral | 3.2% below |
| ABBVAbbVie | Distribution | 28.2% above |
| MRKMerck | Neutral | 8.0% below |
| AZNAstraZeneca | Accumulation | 41.7% below |
| PFEPfizer | Neutral | 8.0% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical stock FAQ
What is Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical’s market cap?
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical’s market cap is $1.51B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $15.30, with 98.59M shares outstanding.
What is the Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical is $26.79, +75.1% from the last close. Of the 20 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 10 rate it a buy, 10 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $15.30 is 32.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $22.65. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical report earnings next?
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical is expected to report on Nov 3, 2026, after the market closes (22 days away). Analysts expect earnings of −$0.93 per share on revenue of $182.6M. Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical beat the earnings estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports, moving 5.3% on average across the report.
What is Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical’s 52-week high and low?
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical’s 52-week high is $39.89 and its 52-week low is $12.73; it closed at $15.30 on Oct 12, 2026, −51.7% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $89.56 on Nov 3, 2021.
Is Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex and fair value) and 3 as headwinds (trend, earnings risk and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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