NYSE: MRK

Merck (MRK) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Nov 4 close

$150.36+5.69 (+3.9%)

Gekko Brief

Nov 4 close

Merck closed at $150.36 on 4 November 2026, +3.9% on the day. The price sits above both the 50-day ($146.54) and 200-day ($127.28) moving averages, inside a 52-week range of $82.01 to $156.92. The GekkoIndex reads 54.4, in the Neutral zone, down 7.1 points over five sessions. Gekko Fair Value is $164.44, so the price is 8.6% below it.

The next earnings report is due on 2 February 2027, 89 days away (before open). Over the last 8 reports the company beat the earnings estimate 8 times, with an average move of 3.8% across the report. Smart-money activity over the last 90 days includes 2 Congress purchases and 0 sales. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days from this point averaged +3.1% over the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

22 firms rate the stock: 15 buy, 7 hold and 0 sell, with a consensus target of $159.91. A typical daily move is about 3.3%, and a typical 20-day move about 4.3%. On the swing-trade checklist, 5 items read supportive and 0 read as a headwind.

A plain summary of the figures as of the Nov 4, 2026 close.

Merck price vs fair value

$164.44$150.36Nov ’25May ’26Nov ’26
Close $150.36200-day averageGekko Fair Value $164.44

Merck quick facts

Market cap
$370.9B
P/E ratio
149.9
Forward P/E
16
EPS, TTM
$0.99
Revenue, TTM
$67.38B
Profit margin
3.6%
Dividend yield
2.25%
Beta
0.12
Volume
10.71M avg 10.37M
1-year return
+82.3%
Typical daily move
±3.3%
Typical 20-day move
±4.3%
50-day average
$146.54
200-day average
$127.28
Next earnings
Feb 2 before open
Shares outstanding
2.47B
52-week range
$82.01$156.92

Merck swing-trade checklist

Merck scores 5 supportive, 1 mixed and 0 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

5 supportive1 mixed0 headwinds

  • Trendsupportive

    Above 50 and 200-day

    Close $150.36 is above the 50-day ($146.54) and 200-day ($127.28) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexmixed

    54.4, Neutral

    Reading 54.4 is in the Neutral zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    8.6% below

    Price is 8.6% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneysupportive

    Leans bullish

    Last 90 days: Congress 2 buys / 0 sales.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 89 days

    Next report Feb 2, 2027, 89 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +3.1% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +3.1% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Merck stock chart and price history

Merck closed at $150.36 on Nov 4, 2026, +82.3% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $82.01 to $156.92.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Merck share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$80$100$120$140$160DecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct150.36

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
+5.9%
3 months
+17.1%
6 months
+32.4%
1 year
+82.3%
The full MRK chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open MRK in Gekko

Follow Merck through every session

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About Merck

Merck operates through two main businesses, Pharmaceuticals and Animal Health. The Pharmaceutical side develops medicines for people, addressing areas such as cancer, hospital care, immune conditions, neurological disorders, viral infections, heart disease, and diabetes, alongside vaccines given to children, teenagers, and adults. The Animal Health arm researches, makes, and sells veterinary medicines and vaccines, along with tools for identifying, tracking, and monitoring animal health.

Merck's medicines and vaccines reach the market through wholesalers, pharmacies, and hospitals, as well as government bodies and managed care groups such as HMOs and pharmacy benefit managers. Individual doctors and their distributors, veterinarians, and livestock producers also make up part of its customer base. The company works with other firms, including AstraZeneca, Bayer, Eisai, Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, and Gilead Sciences, on developing and bringing to market long-acting HIV treatments.

Merck traces its founding to 1891 and is headquartered in Kenilworth, New Jersey. Its shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker MRK.

Listed
NYSE
Sector
Health technology
Industry
Pharmaceuticals: major
Website
merck.com

Merck GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Merck’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 54.4, in the Neutral zone, down 7.1 points over five sessions.

010054.4Neutral

Down 7.1 points over five sessions, from the Accumulation zone.

Reading for Nov 4, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying45+0.1%+1.4%+1.7%−2.9%
Accumulation213+0.7%+0.6%−0.2%−0.2%
Neutral (current zone)379−0.1%+0.3%+1.1%+3.4%
Distribution54+0.6%0.0%+1.3%+6.1%
Selling6Too few readings yet

Average MRK share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.0% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the MRK price, zone by zone.Track MRK in Gekko

Is Merck stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Merck trades 8.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $164.44, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Merck shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$164.44

Gekko Fair Value, Nov 4, 2026

8.6% Undervalued

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 8.6% below the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$164$145Aug 2026SepOctNov 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open MRK in Gekko

Merck insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Merck, and members of Congress disclosed 2 purchases and 0 sales, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for MRK in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every MRK insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MRK in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

2trades disclosed: 2 purchases and 0 sales.

MemberTypeAmountDisclosed
Maria Elvira Salazar
House, FL, purchase
Purchase$15,001 - $50,000Sep 10
traded Aug 19
Ro Khanna
House, CA, purchase
Purchase$15,001 - $50,000Sep 7
traded Aug 7

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Buybacks

Merck has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$757.0M
As a share of market cap
0.20%
Trailing four quarters
$4.21B

From company filings.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Dec 31

0of the funds Gekko tracks hold MRK.

0added0opened0trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

Merck earnings: next date and track record

Merck reports on Feb 2, 2027, before the open (89 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports.

8 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±3.8%average move across the report
5 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−10.1%Feb ’25+5.1%Apr ’25−2.7%Jul ’25−0.7%Oct ’25+4.4%Feb ’26+1.1%Apr ’26+0.4%Aug ’26+6.1%Oct ’26

Last earnings call, Oct 29, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Merck reported Q3 2026 revenue of $18.1 billion, driven by new product launches, oncology strength, and animal health. Key milestones include positive Phase III data for sac-TMT in endometrial cancer from the TROFuse program, landmark Phase III results for cancer vaccine entismodigene in melanoma, and Phase 2b progress in immunology (TL1a/HS). Management emphasized pipeline de-risking and commercial execution as KEYTRUDA LOE approaches.
Guidance
Management expressed confidence in long-term growth beyond the KEYTRUDA loss-of-exclusivity period. Full-year 2026 outlook details to be provided by CFO Caroline Litchfield, with continued investment in launches and pipeline advancement prioritized.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Oct 29, 2026$2.49
est $2.09
+19.1%$18.09B
est $17.33B
+4.4%+6.1%
Aug 4, 2026−$0.13
est −$0.26
+50.0%$16.61B
est $16.37B
+1.5%+0.4%
Apr 30, 2026−$1.28
est −$1.50
+14.7%$16.29B
est $15.85B
+2.8%+1.1%
Feb 3, 2026$2.04
est $2.01
+1.5%$16.40B
est $16.20B
+1.2%+4.4%
Oct 30, 2025$2.58
est $2.36
+9.3%$17.28B
est $16.98B
+1.8%−0.7%
Jul 29, 2025$2.13
est $2.03
+4.9%$15.81B
est $15.86B
−0.4%−2.7%
Apr 24, 2025$2.22
est $2.13
+4.2%$15.53B
est $15.34B
+1.2%+5.1%
Feb 4, 2025$1.72
est $1.67
+3.0%$15.62B
est $15.48B
+0.9%−10.1%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Merck stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Merck is $159.91, +6.4% from the last close, from 22 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$159.91consensus 12-month target, +6.4% from the last close
Low $105High $180
Buy15
Hold7
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 22 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Nov 3DZ BANK AGHold, downgraded$153+1.8%
Nov 2Leerink PartnersBuy, maintained$162+7.7%
Nov 2Freedom Capital MarketsHold, maintained$140−6.9%
Nov 2Cantor FitzgeraldHold, maintained$155+3.1%
Nov 1Cantor FitzgeraldHold, maintained$155+3.1%
+1.1%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+3.1%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.3%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Merck seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Nov 4, Merck averaged +3.1% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

−19.0%2021+10.9%2022+1.8%20230.0%2024+22.0%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days−0.6%1 of 5
Next 10 trading days+1.0%2 of 5
Next 15 trading days+4.0%2 of 5
Next 20 trading days+3.1%3 of 5
Next 30 trading days+2.6%3 of 5

For scale, MRK’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 4.3%.

Merck market cap and key statistics

Merck’s market cap is $370.9B, with a P/E ratio of 149.9 and revenue of $67.38B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$370.9B
P/E ratio
149.9
Forward P/E
16
EPS, TTM
$0.99
Gekko Fair Value
$164.44

Trading

Volume
10.71M
Avg volume, 20 days
10.37M
52-week high
$156.92
52-week low
$82.01
Shares outstanding
2.47B

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$67.38B
Profit margin
3.6%
Return on equity
7%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
−12.0%

Risk and income

Beta
0.12
Typical daily move
±3.3%
Typical 20-day move
±4.3%
Dividend yield
2.25%

Merck peers

Merck’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
LLYEli Lilly−1.5%Distribution27.7% above
JNJJohnson & Johnson+1.4%Neutral1.7% below
ABBVAbbVie+0.3%Neutral26.5% above
AZNAstraZeneca+0.3%Distribution34.1% below
PFEPfizer+0.1%Neutral4.1% below
VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals+2.5%Neutral16.8% above

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

More stocks in Pharmaceuticals: major

Merck stock FAQ

What is Merck’s market cap?

Merck’s market cap is $370.9B at the Nov 4, 2026 close of $150.36, with 2.47B shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 149.9.

What is the Merck stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Merck is $159.91, +6.4% from the last close. Of the 22 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 15 rate it a buy, 7 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Merck stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Merck is undervalued: the Nov 4, 2026 close of $150.36 is 8.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $164.44. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Merck report earnings next?

Merck is expected to report on Feb 2, 2027, before the market opens (89 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.77 per share on revenue of $16.32B. Merck beat the earnings estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports, moving 3.8% on average across the report.

What is Merck’s 52-week high and low?

Merck’s 52-week high is $156.92 and its 52-week low is $82.01; it closed at $150.36 on Nov 4, 2026, +82.3% over the past year.

Is Merck stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 5 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (trend, fair value, smart money, earnings risk and seasonality), 1 as mixed (gekkoindex). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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