Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for MRK in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every MRK insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MRK in Gekko
NYSE: MRK
Merck (MRK) Stock Analysis & Forecast
$146.76−0.41 (−0.3%)
Close on Sep 18, 2026. Page updated Sep 19, 9:18 pm ET.
Gekko Brief
AI summaryMerck (MRK) closes at $146.76, down 0.3%, with the stock trading above both its 50-day average of $137.87 and its 200-day average of $120.46. The GekkoIndex reads 54.2, placing it in the Neutral zone, though the reading has slipped 3.7 points over the past five sessions. Price sits 7.3% below Gekko Fair Value of $158.26. Over the past month the stock is down 3.6%, while three-month and six-month returns stand at 28.9% and 28.5% respectively, and the one-year return is 80.9%.
This week's news centers on regulatory and pipeline progress alongside portfolio comparisons. Merck received a positive EU CHMP opinion for Keytruda in combination with Padcev as a perioperative treatment for resectable muscle-invasive bladder cancer, advancing European approval prospects. The company also launched an HIV-focused educational program, "Your Hive of Whole Health," and one investor letter highlighted new products including Winrevair, Welireg, and Capvaxive as reducing reliance on Keytruda. Separately, a comparison piece with Amgen (AMGN) concluded Amgen has a stronger dividend growth story, while Nykredit A/S disclosed a $92.32 million stake acquired during the second quarter.
The next earnings date falls on 29 October 2026, before the open, 39 days away and outside a typical 20-trading-day hold. At the last report on 4 August 2026, Merck posted an EPS of -0.13 against an estimate of -0.26, with a 0.4% reaction; the company has beaten estimates in 7 of the last 8 quarters, with an average absolute reaction of 3.4%. Over the last 90 days, Congress recorded 2 buys and 0 sells. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 2% gain over 5 years, rising in 3 of those years.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 20, 2026 from the data above.
Price vs fair value
Close $146.76200-day averageGekko Fair Value $158.26
Key stats
- Market cap
- $362.5B
- P/E ratio
- 115.9
- Forward P/E
- 15
- EPS, TTM
- $1.27
- Revenue, TTM
- $66.57B
- Profit margin
- 4.8%
- Dividend yield
- 2.29%
- Beta
- 0.23
- Volume
- 30.47M avg 10.35M
- 1-year return
- +80.9%
- Typical daily move
- ±1.9%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±4.4%
- 50-day average
- $137.87
- 200-day average
- $120.46
- Next earnings
- Oct 29 before open
- Shares outstanding
- 2.47B
Merck swing-trade checklist
Merck scores 5 supportive, 1 mixed and 0 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
5 supportive1 mixed0 headwinds
- Trendsupportive
Above 50 and 200-day
Close $146.76 is above the 50-day ($137.87) and 200-day ($120.46) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexmixed
54.2, Neutral
Reading 54.2 is in the Neutral zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
7.3% below
Price is 7.3% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneysupportive
Leans bullish
Last 90 days: Congress 2 buys / 0 sales.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 39 days
Next report Oct 29, 2026, 39 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+2.0% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +2% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Merck stock chart and price history
Merck closed at $146.76 on Sep 18, 2026, +80.9% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $77.58 to $156.92.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −3.6%
- 3 months
- +28.9%
- 6 months
- +28.5%
- 1 year
- +80.9%
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About Merck
Merck operates through two main businesses, Pharmaceuticals and Animal Health. The Pharmaceutical side develops medicines for people, addressing areas such as cancer, hospital care, immune conditions, neurological disorders, viral infections, heart disease, and diabetes, alongside vaccines given to children, teenagers, and adults. The Animal Health arm researches, makes, and sells veterinary medicines and vaccines, along with tools for identifying, tracking, and monitoring animal health.
Merck's medicines and vaccines reach the market through wholesalers, pharmacies, and hospitals, as well as government bodies and managed care groups such as HMOs and pharmacy benefit managers. Individual doctors and their distributors, veterinarians, and livestock producers also make up part of its customer base. The company works with other firms, including AstraZeneca, Bayer, Eisai, Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, and Gilead Sciences, on developing and bringing to market long-acting HIV treatments.
Merck traces its founding to 1891 and is headquartered in Kenilworth, New Jersey. Its shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker MRK.
- Listed
- NYSE
- Sector
- Health technology
- Industry
- Pharmaceuticals: major
- Website
- merck.com
Merck GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Merck’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 54.2, in the Neutral zone, down 3.7 points over five sessions.
54.2Neutral
Down 3.7 points over five sessions.
Reading for Sep 18, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 45 | +0.1% | +1.7% | ||
| Accumulation | 208 | +0.7% | −0.2% | ||
| Neutral (current zone) | 349 | 0.0% | +1.3% | ||
| Distribution | 54 | +0.6% | +1.7% | ||
| Selling | 6 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average MRK share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the MRK price, zone by zone.Track MRK in Gekko
Is Merck stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Merck trades 7.3% below Gekko Fair Value of $158.26, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Merck shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$158.26
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 19, 2026
7.3% Undervalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open MRK in Gekko
Merck insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Merck, and members of Congress disclosed 2 purchases and 0 sales, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
2trades disclosed: 2 purchases and 0 sales.
| Member | Amount | Disclosed |
|---|---|---|
| Maria Elvira Salazar House, FL, purchase | $15,001 - $50,000 | Sep 10 traded Aug 19 |
| Ro Khanna House, CA, purchase | $15,001 - $50,000 | Sep 7 traded Aug 7 |
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Buybacks
Merck has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $757.0M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.21%
- Trailing four quarters
- $5.37B
From company filings.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Dec 31
0of the funds Gekko tracks hold MRK.
0added0opened0trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
Merck earnings: next date and track record
Merck reports on Oct 29, 2026, before the open (39 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Oct 29, 2026
Expected before the open, 39 days away
- EPS estimate
- $2.22
- Revenue estimate
- $17.32B
7 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±3.4%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Aug 4, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Merck reported Q2 2026 revenue of $16.6 billion (up 5% or 4% ex-FX) driven by Oncology (KEYTRUDA family) and Animal Health and growing contributions from new product launches. Management highlighted meaningful pipeline and regulatory progress including FDA approval of LIPFENDRA (oral PCSK9 inhibitor) and several earlier-than-expected clinical proof points (sac-TMT, I-DXd, Tuli). Leadership emphasized a $70+ billion commercial opportunity from 20+ new products and said recent clinical derisking increases confidence in long-term growth. Management reiterated confidence in year-to-date outlook, plans for continued investment in R&D and launches (including global regulatory reviews for LIPFENDRA), and provided development updates across cardiometabolic, HIV, infectious disease, immunology and oncology programs. During Q&A, management answered detailed scientific and commercial questions, conveyed generally confident and direct responses, but acknowledged routine risks (adoption inertia, timing for access and payers, ongoing regulatory reviews, and some mixed clinical results such as SSc-ILD).
- Guidance
- Management stated they 'remain confident in our outlook for the remainder of the year' but did not give explicit numeric FY guidance on the call. Forward-looking timing/guidance items mentioned: launch timing for CD388 (influenza prevention) targeted in 2029; LIPFENDRA initial orders have begun and broader access expected to build over time with potential to become a blockbuster; cardiovascular outcomes trial (CVOT) for LIPFENDRA expected to read out in 2029. Management expects the KEYTRUDA LOE period to be 'more of a hill than a cliff' with a shallow dip and a fast return to growth.
- Risks flagged
- Adoption inertia and time required to build payer coverage and primary care uptake for LIPFENDRA; ongoing regulatory reviews in EU and China; potential clinical setbacks in development programs (e.g., non-positive SSc-ILD result for TL1A in that indication); the need for additional clinical or CMC bridging studies (CD388 added Northern Hemisphere season study to support filing); macro/payer/reimbursement risks and competition; uncertainty around the magnitude/timing of revenue replacement following KEYTRUDA loss of exclusivity.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | −$0.13 est −$0.26 | $16.61B est $16.37B | +0.4% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | −$1.28 est −$1.50 | $16.29B est $15.85B | +1.1% |
| Feb 3, 2026 | $2.04 est $2.01 | $16.40B est $16.20B | +4.4% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | $2.58 est $2.36 | $17.28B est $16.98B | −0.7% |
| Jul 29, 2025 | $2.13 est $2.03 | $15.81B est $15.86B | −2.7% |
| Apr 24, 2025 | $2.22 est $2.13 | $15.53B est $15.34B | +5.1% |
| Feb 4, 2025 | $1.72 est $1.67 | $15.62B est $15.48B | −10.1% |
| Oct 31, 2024 | $1.57 est $1.57 | $16.66B est $16.47B | −2.8% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Merck stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Merck is $152.96, +4.2% from the last close, from 19 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$152.96consensus 12-month target, +4.2% from the last close
Now $146.76Avg $152.96
Low $105High $180
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 19 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14 | RBC Capital | $150 | +2.2% |
| Sep 11 | DBS | $180 | +22.6% |
| Sep 10 | Leerink Partners | $161 | +9.7% |
| Sep 10 | HSBC | $172 | +17.2% |
| Sep 10 | Bank of America Securities | $166 | +13.1% |
+1.3%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+2.0%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±1.9%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Merck seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 19, Merck averaged +2.0% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | −1.5% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +3.1% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +2.1% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +2.0% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +5.7% | 3 of 5 |
For scale, MRK’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 4.4%.
Merck market cap and key statistics
Merck’s market cap is $362.5B, with a P/E ratio of 115.9 and revenue of $66.57B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $362.5B
- P/E ratio
- 115.9
- Forward P/E
- 15
- EPS, TTM
- $1.27
- Gekko Fair Value
- $158.26
Trading
- Volume
- 30.47M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 10.35M
- 52-week high
- $156.92
- 52-week low
- $77.58
- Shares outstanding
- 2.47B
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $66.57B
- Profit margin
- 4.8%
- Return on equity
- 7%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- −19.3%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.23
- Typical daily move
- ±1.9%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±4.4%
- Dividend yield
- 2.29%
Merck stock news this week
Coverage of Merck this week reads positive: 4 positive, 2 neutral and 1 negative headlines.
- Amgen or Merck: Which Drugmaker Has the Stronger Dividend Growth Story?24/7 Wall St., Sep 19
- Merck Advances European Regulatory Approval For Keytruda Combination In Bladder CancerBenzinga, Sep 18
- Merck Launches Your Hive of Whole Health to Support Whole Person Care for People Living With HIVInvesting News Network, Sep 18
- Nykredit A S Invests $92.32 Million in Merck & Co., Inc. $MRKMarketBeat, Sep 18
- Merck Receives Positive EU CHMP Opinion for KEYTRUDA® (pembrolizumab) Plus Padcev® (enfortumab vedotin-ejfv) as Perioperative Treatment for Adults With Resectable Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer (MIBC)GuruFocus, Sep 18
- Merck (MRK) Outperforms Broader Market: What You Need to KnowZacks Investment Research, Sep 17
Merck peers
Merck’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| LLYEli Lilly | Accumulation | 15.7% above |
| JNJJohnson & Johnson | Neutral | 2.7% below |
| ABBVAbbVie | Neutral | 22.6% above |
| AZNAstraZeneca | Neutral | 41.0% below |
| PFEPfizer | Neutral | 9.8% below |
| VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals | Accumulation | 9.7% above |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Merck stock FAQ
What is Merck’s market cap?
Merck’s market cap is $362.5B at the Sep 18, 2026 close of $146.76, with 2.47B shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 115.9.
What is the Merck stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Merck is $152.96, +4.2% from the last close. Of the 19 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 14 rate it a buy, 5 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Merck stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Merck is undervalued: the Sep 18, 2026 close of $146.76 is 7.3% below Gekko Fair Value of $158.26. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Merck report earnings next?
Merck is expected to report on Oct 29, 2026, before the market opens (39 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $2.22 per share on revenue of $17.32B. Merck beat the earnings estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports, moving 3.4% on average across the report.
What is Merck’s 52-week high and low?
Merck’s 52-week high is $156.92 and its 52-week low is $77.58; it closed at $146.76 on Sep 18, 2026, +80.9% over the past year.
Is Merck stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 5 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (trend, fair value, smart money, earnings risk and seasonality), 1 as mixed (gekkoindex). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
Prices and signals update after every US market close; the GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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