NASDAQ: ACAD

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Oct 12 close

$19.41−0.37 (−1.9%)

Gekko Brief

AI summaryOct 12 close

ACADIA shares have been under pressure amid an ongoing investigation by Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman into a prior price drop, alongside a mix of analyst actions. Argus lowered its target to $19.00, while RBC Capital maintained its Outperform rating but cut its target from $42 to $36 and then again from $37.00 to $36.00. BofA Securities reiterated a Buy rating with a $31 target. Coverage has also pointed to pricing risk and pipeline execution concerns, even as Q2 2026 revenue rose, with DAYBUE and NUPLAZID both contributing to growth.

ACAD closed at $19.41, down 1.9%, with its price sitting below both the 50-day average of $26.22 and the 200-day average of $24.17. The stock's one-month return stands at -30.3% and its three-month return at -23.9%. The GekkoIndex reads 71.4, placing it in the Buying zone, while the gap to Gekko Fair Value of $28.54 stands at -32%.

Earnings are scheduled for 4 November 2026, 23 days away, falling within the next 20 trading days. Over the last 30 days, there has been 1 unusual options signal, with put premium of $1,302,030 against call premium of $641,039. Seasonality over the past 5 years shows an average 20-day return of 4.7% from this point in the calendar, rising in 4 of those years. Analyst consensus across 16 firms includes 12 buy and 4 hold ratings, with a consensus target of $31.95.

Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals price vs fair value

$28.54$19.41Oct ’25Apr ’26Oct ’26
Close $19.41200-day averageGekko Fair Value $28.54

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals quick facts

Market cap
$3.32B
P/E ratio
8.8
Forward P/E
25.2
EPS, TTM
$2.22
Revenue, TTM
$1.14B
Profit margin
33.4%
Dividend yield
—
Beta
0.89
Volume
1.18M avg 2.45M
1-year return
−5.9%
Typical daily move
±4.8%
Typical 20-day move
±8.8%
50-day average
$26.22
200-day average
$24.17
Next earnings
Nov 4 after close
Shares outstanding
172.3M
52-week range
$19.32$30.96

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals swing-trade checklist

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive1 mixed2 headwinds

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $19.41 sits between the 50-day ($26.22) and 200-day ($24.17) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    71.4, Buying

    Reading 71.4 is in the Buying zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    32.0% below

    Price is 32% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyheadwind

    Leans bearish

    Last 30 days: 1 unusual options signal.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskheadwind

    Reports in 23 days

    Reports on Nov 4, 2026, 23 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +4.7% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +4.7% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals stock chart and price history

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals closed at $19.41 on Oct 12, 2026, −5.9% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $19.32 to $30.96.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$25$30NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct19.41

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−30.3%
3 months
−23.9%
6 months
−9.6%
1 year
−5.9%
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Follow ACADIA Pharmaceuticals through every session

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About ACADIA Pharmaceuticals

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals works on small molecule medicines aimed at disorders of the central nervous system. Its best-known product is NUPLAZID (pimavanserin), prescribed to treat hallucinations and delusions tied to psychosis in Parkinson's disease patients. Beyond this approved treatment, the company is known for its focus on conditions affecting the brain and nervous system more broadly.

The company's pipeline extends well past its marketed drug. Pimavanserin itself is being studied further in Phase 3 trials for Alzheimer's disease psychosis and for negative symptoms of schizophrenia. Trofinetide, a synthetic compound, is in Phase 3 testing for Rett syndrome, while ACP-044, a non-opioid pain treatment taken orally, is in Phase 2 studies covering both acute and chronic pain. A fourth candidate, ACP-319, targets muscarinic receptors and is in early Phase 1 testing for schizophrenia and cognitive improvement in Alzheimer's patients.

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals was founded in 1993 and is based in San Diego, California. Its shares trade on the NASDAQ under the ticker ACAD.

Listed
NASDAQ
Sector
Health technology
Industry
Pharmaceuticals: major
Website
acadia.com

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 71.4, in the Buying zone, down 6.6 points over five sessions.

010071.4Buying

Down 6.6 points over five sessions.

Reading for Oct 12, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying (current zone)61−1.2%−2.8%−6.1%−6.6%
Accumulation238−0.9%−1.3%+1.4%+9.1%
Neutral348+0.8%+1.3%+1.0%0.0%
Distribution34−0.7%−0.8%−1.5%+2.0%
Selling1Too few readings yet

Average ACAD share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Buying readings averaged +3.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Buying zone: Smart money likely accumulating heavily. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the ACAD price, zone by zone.Track ACAD in Gekko

Is ACADIA Pharmaceuticals stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals trades 32.0% below Gekko Fair Value of $28.54, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what ACADIA Pharmaceuticals shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$28.54

Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026

32.0% Undervalued

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 8.2% below the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$29$20Aug 2026SepOct 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open ACAD in Gekko

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for ACADIA Pharmaceuticals, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for ACAD in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every ACAD insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open ACAD in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in ACAD were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for ACAD, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open ACAD in Gekko

Unusual options activity last 30 days

1signal, 33% of the flagged premium in calls.

Latest: Bullish flow on Sep 22, $1.94M in unusual premium.

Every signal with its contract, strike and premium.Unlock in Gekko

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals earnings: next date and track record

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals reports on Nov 4, 2026, after the close (23 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports.

5 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±6.3%average move across the report
7 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+14.7%Nov ’24+1.7%Feb ’25+16.4%May ’25+3.2%Aug ’25−0.9%Nov ’25+0.2%Feb ’26+0.9%May ’26+12.5%Aug ’26

Last earnings call, Aug 4, 2026 AI summary

What they said
ACADIA reported Q2 2026 total revenues of $308 million, up 17% year-over-year. DAYBUE net sales reached $125 million (+30% YoY), driven by DAYBUE STIX launch adoption, while NUPLAZID delivered $183 million (+10% YoY adjusted). CHMP issued positive opinion for DAYBUE in Europe. Phase II remlifanserin readout for Alzheimer's disease psychosis expected September-October 2026, with estimated $4 billion peak sales potential.
Guidance
ACADIA raised 2026 DAYBUE guidance to $480-$510 million. Long-term targets include $700 million in DAYBUE sales and ~$1 billion in NUPLAZID net sales by 2028. Remlifanserin Phase II top-line results expected September-October 2026.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Aug 4, 2026$0.18
est $0.07
+164.1%$308.0M
est $296.6M
+3.8%+12.5%
May 6, 2026$0.02
est $0.08
−75.0%$268.1M
est $280.3M
−4.3%+0.9%
Feb 25, 2026$0.14
est $0.14
−1.0%$284.0M
est $292.8M
−3.0%+0.2%
Nov 5, 2025$0.26
est $0.14
+85.7%$278.6M
est $292.6M
−4.8%−0.9%
Aug 6, 2025$0.16
est $0.14
+14.3%$264.6M
est $262.0M
+1.0%+3.2%
May 7, 2025$0.11
est $0.11
0.0%$244.3M
est $239.0M
+2.2%+16.4%
Feb 26, 2025$0.86
est $0.22
+292.7%$259.6M
est $273.0M
−4.9%+1.7%
Nov 6, 2024$0.20
est $0.14
+42.9%$250.4M
est $282.9M
−11.5%+14.7%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is $31.95, +64.6% from the last close, from 16 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$31.95consensus 12-month target, +64.6% from the last close
Low $25High $49
Buy12
Hold4
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 16 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Oct 12BMO CapitalBuy, maintained$34+75.2%
Oct 9Bank of America SecuritiesBuy, reiterated$31+59.7%
Oct 8RBC CapitalBuy, maintained$36+85.5%
Oct 5RBC CapitalBuy, maintained$37+90.6%
Sep 25H.C. WainwrightBuy, maintained$33+70.0%
−6.1%average 20-day move after past Buying readings
+4.7%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±4.8%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals averaged +4.7% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+12.5%2021−10.1%2022+0.3%2023+18.2%2024+12.5%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+1.5%3 of 5
Next 10 trading days+0.4%1 of 5
Next 15 trading days+5.6%3 of 5
Next 20 trading days+4.7%4 of 5
Next 30 trading days+5.5%3 of 5

For scale, ACAD’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 8.8%.

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals market cap and key statistics

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals’s market cap is $3.32B, with a P/E ratio of 8.8 and revenue of $1.14B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$3.32B
P/E ratio
8.8
Forward P/E
25.2
EPS, TTM
$2.22
Gekko Fair Value
$28.54

Trading

Volume
1.18M
Avg volume, 20 days
2.45M
52-week high
$30.96
52-week low
$19.32
Shares outstanding
172.3M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$1.14B
Profit margin
33.4%
Return on equity
35.7%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+13.3%

Risk and income

Beta
0.89
Typical daily move
±4.8%
Typical 20-day move
±8.8%

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals peers

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
LLYEli Lilly+0.1%Neutral14.7% above
JNJJohnson & Johnson+0.8%Neutral3.2% below
ABBVAbbVie+1.3%Distribution28.2% above
MRKMerck−0.2%Neutral8.0% below
AZNAstraZeneca−0.7%Accumulation41.7% below
PFEPfizer−0.1%Neutral8.0% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals stock FAQ

What is ACADIA Pharmaceuticals’s market cap?

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals’s market cap is $3.32B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $19.41, with 172.3M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 8.8.

What is the ACADIA Pharmaceuticals stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is $31.95, +64.6% from the last close. Of the 16 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 12 rate it a buy, 4 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is ACADIA Pharmaceuticals stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $19.41 is 32.0% below Gekko Fair Value of $28.54. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does ACADIA Pharmaceuticals report earnings next?

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is expected to report on Nov 4, 2026, after the market closes (23 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.20 per share on revenue of $332.8M. ACADIA Pharmaceuticals beat the earnings estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports, moving 6.3% on average across the report.

What is ACADIA Pharmaceuticals’s 52-week high and low?

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals’s 52-week high is $30.96 and its 52-week low is $19.32; it closed at $19.41 on Oct 12, 2026, −5.9% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $33.99 on Jul 18, 2023.

Is ACADIA Pharmaceuticals stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and seasonality), 1 as mixed (trend) and 2 as headwinds (smart money and earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

Is there unusual options activity in ACADIA Pharmaceuticals?

Gekko flagged 1 unusual options signal in ACADIA Pharmaceuticals over the last 30 days, with $641K of flagged premium in calls and $1.30M in puts. The latest, bullish flow, was on Sep 22, 2026 with $1.94M in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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