NYSE: ONON

On (ONON) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$30.00+0.04 (+0.1%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

This week's news centers on On's newly unveiled three-year growth plan, targeting at least CHF 5.6 billion in net sales and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 22% or higher by 2029, alongside a $1 billion buyback and expansion into football and golf categories. Coverage also points to continued premium store expansion supporting DTC growth and traffic, along with comparisons to peer Boot Barn on footwear positioning. Trading volume was notably elevated this week, with shares moving between roughly $27.32 and $30.85 across sessions.

On shares closed at $30.00, essentially flat on the day, and remain below both the 50-day average of $31.65 and the 200-day average of $38.38, with the shorter average also under the longer one, reflecting a broader downtrend. The GekkoIndex reads 57.5, placing it in the Neutral zone, down 13.2 points over the last five sessions. Price sits 16.3% below Gekko Fair Value of $35.83.

The next earnings report is scheduled for 11 November 2026, 43 days out and beyond a typical 20-trading-day window. Over the last 90 days, two open-market insider purchases totaling $3,987,582 have been recorded, and one unusual options signal appeared in the last 30 days, with call premium of $1,218,828 against put premium of $185,378. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged -1.1% over 5 years, rising in 2 of those years, a pattern worth noting alongside the current gap to fair value.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

On price vs fair value

$35.83$30.00Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $30.00200-day averageGekko Fair Value $35.83

On quick facts

Market cap
$10.00B
P/E ratio
21
Forward P/E
15.8
EPS, TTM
$1.45
Revenue, TTM
$3.22B
Profit margin
12.3%
Dividend yield
—
Beta
2.08
Volume
7.27M avg 11.12M
1-year return
−31.7%
Typical daily move
±4.1%
Typical 20-day move
±10.1%
50-day average
$31.65
200-day average
$38.38
Next earnings
Nov 11 before open
Shares outstanding
301.7M
52-week range
$26.37$51.08

On swing-trade checklist

On scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive1 mixed2 headwinds

  • Trendheadwind

    Below 50 and 200-day

    Close $30.00 is below the 50-day ($31.65) and 200-day ($38.38) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexmixed

    57.5, Neutral

    Reading 57.5 is in the Neutral zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    16.3% below

    Price is 16.3% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneysupportive

    Leans bullish

    Last 90 days: 2 open-market insider purchases. Last 30 days: 1 unusual options signal.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 43 days

    Next report Nov 11, 2026, 43 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalityheadwind

    −1.1% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −1.1% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

On stock chart and price history

On closed at $30.00 on Sep 28, 2026, −31.7% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $26.37 to $51.08.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
On share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$35$40$45$50NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep30.00

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
+3.6%
3 months
−15.3%
6 months
−7.4%
1 year
−31.7%
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About On

On designs and sells performance sports gear under the On brand, reaching customers across Switzerland, the wider Europe, Middle East and Africa region, the United States, other parts of the Americas, and Asia-Pacific. Its range covers athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories built for activities such as running, outdoor pursuits, all-day wear, training, tennis, and products aimed at young movers. The company is best recognized for this footwear and apparel line marketed to athletes and generally active people.

On reaches its customers through a mix of wholesale partners and direct-to-consumer sales. Its wholesale network includes run specialty stores, general sporting goods retailers, outdoor shops, luxury and street fashion outlets, and lifestyle retailers, while its direct channels include its own retail stores and e-commerce platforms.

On was founded in 2010 and is based in Zurich, Switzerland. Its shares trade on the NYSE under the ticker ONON.

Listed
NYSE
Sector
Consumer non-durables
Industry
Apparel/Footwear
Website
on.com

On GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

On’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 57.5, in the Neutral zone, down 13.2 points over five sessions.

010057.5Neutral

Down 13.2 points over five sessions, from the Buying zone.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying44+1.8%+2.2%+9.0%+19.6%
Accumulation252+0.1%+0.5%+1.2%+3.4%
Neutral (current zone)331+0.1%+0.2%+0.2%−0.2%
Distribution41+0.9%+0.3%−2.3%−4.1%
Selling4Too few readings yet

Average ONON share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the ONON price, zone by zone.Track ONON in Gekko

Is On stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

On trades 16.3% below Gekko Fair Value of $35.83, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what On shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$35.83

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026

16.3% Undervalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open ONON in Gekko

On insider and Congress trading

Insiders filed 2 open-market purchases in On worth $3.99M, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

$3.99Min 2 open-market purchases

FiledInsiderTypeSharesValue
Aug 17Olivier Bernhard
Executive Officer
Purchase65,000$1.99M
Aug 17Caspar Felix Coppetti
Executive Officer & Co-CEO
Purchase65,000$1.99M

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in ONON were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for ONON, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open ONON in Gekko

Unusual options activity last 30 days

1signal, 87% of the flagged premium in calls.

Latest: Bullish flow on Sep 10, $1.40M in unusual premium.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30

1of the funds Gekko tracks holds ONON.

0added1opened0trimmed1sold out
Every signal with its contract, strike and premium, and which funds are on each side.Unlock in Gekko

On earnings: next date and track record

On reports on Nov 11, 2026, before the open (43 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports.

5 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±9.9%average move across the report
5 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

0.0%Nov ’24+9.7%Mar ’25+12.2%May ’25+5.4%Aug ’25+20.5%Nov ’25−7.5%Mar ’26+4.0%May ’26−20.0%Aug ’26

Last earnings call, Aug 11, 2026 AI summary

What they said
On Holding AG reported a strong Q2 2026 with net sales of CHF 850 million (c. 21.6% constant currency growth) driven by exceptional direct-to-consumer (DTC) performance (+34% cc). Management emphasized innovation-led, premium brand positioning and founder-led leadership changes. Gross profit margin improved to ~65.4% and management raised gross margin guidance to at least 65% for the year; adjusted EBITDA margin guidance was maintained. Management described actions to deliberately manage wholesale sell-in—primarily in the Americas—to protect full-price positioning, causing a downward revision to top-line guidance (no specific revenue figure provided in the call). The company highlighted strong product pipeline and upcoming rollouts (Cloudsurfer 3 exclusive to specialty in October, broad in January; Cloudsurfer Max 2 in April; Cloudrunner/Cloud X 5 traction; Cloudmonster momentum) and expansion of store footprint in EMEA and other markets. Inventory increased ~30% driven primarily by volume growth and FX effects. Management signaled confidence in long-term growth opportunities across geographies and categories (training, apparel, tennis, lifestyle), while acknowledging near-term wholesale softness in the Americas and transitional impacts from active inventory and sell-in management.
Guidance
Gross margin guidance lifted to at least 65% for the year. Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance maintained (unchanged). Management indicated a revised (lower) top-line / revenue outlook tied to actions to limit wholesale sell-in in the Americas, but did not provide a specific revised revenue figure on the call. Phasing: expect Q3 growth to be lower than Q4 due to wholesale actions. DTC expected to remain strong in H2; product rollout schedule: Cloudsurfer 3 (specialty exclusive Oct, broad Jan), Cloudsurfer Max 2 (Apr), other innovations through Q4–Q2 '27.
Risks flagged
Wholesale channel softness in the Americas and promotional environment; intentional sell-in restrictions could depress near-term revenue; elevated inventory (+30%) driven by volume and FX (risk to working capital and potential markdowns if sell-through weakens); FX exposure affecting reported inventory and results; reliance on maintaining full-price strategy and healthy wholesale inventories as innovations are rolled out; general macro/industry slowdown risk mentioned by analysts.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Aug 11, 2026$0.39
est $0.38
+2.6%$1.05B
est $1.08B
−3.0%−20.0%
May 12, 2026$0.37
est $0.27
+38.0%$1.04B
est $1.03B
+1.3%+4.0%
Mar 3, 2026$0.31
est $0.26
+19.2%$938.2M
est $916.1M
+2.4%−7.5%
Nov 12, 2025$0.50
est $0.33
+53.7%$998.6M
est $957.0M
+4.3%+20.5%
Aug 12, 2025−$0.11
est $0.24
−145.6%$942.9M
est $885.9M
+6.4%+5.4%
May 13, 2025$0.21
est $0.22
−5.2%$853.2M
est $768.9M
+11.0%+12.2%
Mar 4, 2025$0.33
est $0.18
+83.8%$667.9M
est $653.7M
+2.2%+9.7%
Nov 12, 2024$0.11
est $0.23
−53.4%$740.8M
est $729.5M
+1.5%0.0%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

On stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for On is $43.08, +43.6% from the last close, from 23 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$43.08consensus 12-month target, +43.6% from the last close
Low $20High $73
Buy19
Hold3
Sell1

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 23 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 28William BlairHold, maintained——
Sep 28KeyBancBuy, reiterated$37+23.3%
Sep 28CitiBuy, reiterated——
Sep 25Goldman SachsBuy, maintained$44+46.7%
Sep 25Morgan StanleyBuy, reiterated$39+30.0%
+0.2%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
−1.1%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±4.1%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

On seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, On averaged −1.1% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+10.0%2021+0.5%2022−11.9%2023+0.9%2024−3.2%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days−2.1%2 of 5
Next 10 trading days−4.0%0 of 5
Next 15 trading days−5.1%1 of 5
Next 20 trading days−1.1%2 of 5
Next 30 trading days+0.5%3 of 5

For scale, ONON’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 10.1%.

On market cap and key statistics

On’s market cap is $10.00B, with a P/E ratio of 21 and revenue of $3.22B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$10.00B
P/E ratio
21
Forward P/E
15.8
EPS, TTM
$1.45
Gekko Fair Value
$35.83

Trading

Volume
7.27M
Avg volume, 20 days
11.12M
52-week high
$51.08
52-week low
$26.37
Shares outstanding
301.7M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$3.22B
Profit margin
12.3%
Return on equity
23.9%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+81.1%

Risk and income

Beta
2.08
Typical daily move
±4.1%
Typical 20-day move
±10.1%

On stock news this week

Coverage of On this week reads neutral: 0 positive, 5 neutral and 0 negative headlines.

News sentiment neutral

On peers

On’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
NKENike+2.6%Accumulation20.3% below
RLRalph Lauren+0.7%Neutral10.3% above
LULUlululemon athletica+0.8%Accumulation37.6% below
DECKDeckers Outdoor+0.2%Accumulation38.3% below
LEVILevi Strauss+1.2%Accumulation1.7% below
GILGildan Activewear+6.2%Buying29.4% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

On stock FAQ

What is On’s market cap?

On’s market cap is $10.00B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $30.00, with 301.7M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 21.

What is the On stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for On is $43.08, +43.6% from the last close. Of the 23 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 19 rate it a buy, 3 a hold and 1 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is On stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate On is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $30.00 is 16.3% below Gekko Fair Value of $35.83. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does On report earnings next?

On is expected to report on Nov 11, 2026, before the market opens (43 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.47 per share on revenue of $1.12B. On beat the earnings estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports, moving 9.9% on average across the report.

What is On’s 52-week high and low?

On’s 52-week high is $51.08 and its 52-week low is $26.37; it closed at $30.00 on Sep 28, 2026, −31.7% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $64.05 on Jan 30, 2025.

Is On stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (fair value, smart money and earnings risk), 1 as mixed (gekkoindex) and 2 as headwinds (trend and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

Is there unusual options activity in On?

Gekko flagged 1 unusual options signal in On over the last 30 days, with $1.22M of flagged premium in calls and $185K in puts. The latest, bullish flow, was on Sep 10, 2026 with $1.40M in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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