NYSE: LOAR

Loar (LOAR) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$63.57−1.47 (−2.3%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

This week's attention on Loar centers on a valuation debate rather than new operating news: one piece argues LOAR stock may be 31% overvalued as cash flow falls short, while a separate comparison piece weighs Loar against BETA Technologies across ownership, earnings, risk, profitability, dividends and analyst recommendations. Both concern how the market should size up Loar's business rather than any fresh results, deal or regulatory development.

Loar closes at $63.57, down 2.3% on the day, sitting between its 50-day average of $69.90 and 200-day average of $67.42, a trend the checklist marks as mixed. The GekkoIndex reads 64.9, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone, down 3.5 over five days. Gekko Fair Value stands at $62.97, putting price about 1% above that mark.

Loar's next earnings date falls on 11 November 2026, 43 days out and beyond a typical 20-trading-day hold; the last report on 6 August 2026 produced EPS of $0.33 against a $0.27 estimate, followed by a 6.3% reaction, with 4 beats in the last 8 quarters and an average absolute reaction of 5.5%. No insider, Congress or unusual options activity appears in the current windows, and seasonality data is insufficient for a read. Analyst coverage shows 3 buy and 1 hold ratings among 4 firms, with a consensus target of $89.80.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

Loar price vs fair value

$63.57$62.97Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $63.57200-day averageGekko Fair Value $62.97

Loar quick facts

Market cap
$5.95B
P/E ratio
89.6
Forward P/E
40.3
EPS, TTM
$0.73
Revenue, TTM
$586.2M
Profit margin
11.6%
Dividend yield
—
Beta
0.56
Volume
646,106 avg 731,760
1-year return
−18.2%
Typical daily move
±3.8%
Typical 20-day move
±8.1%
50-day average
$69.90
200-day average
$67.42
Next earnings
Nov 11
Shares outstanding
93.69M
52-week range
$53.15$83.43

Loar swing-trade checklist

Loar scores 2 supportive, 2 mixed and 0 headwinds across the 4 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

2 supportive2 mixed0 headwinds

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $63.57 sits between the 50-day ($69.90) and 200-day ($67.42) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    64.9, Accumulation

    Reading 64.9 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuemixed

    1.0% above

    Price is within 5% of Gekko Fair Value (1% above).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 43 days

    Next report Nov 11, 2026, 43 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalityno data

    No data

    Not enough years of history for a seasonal read.

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Loar stock chart and price history

Loar closed at $63.57 on Sep 28, 2026, −18.2% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $53.15 to $83.43.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Loar share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$60$70$80NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep63.57

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−13.0%
3 months
−20.3%
6 months
+13.8%
1 year
−18.2%
The full LOAR chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open LOAR in Gekko

Follow Loar through every session

Put LOAR on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

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About Loar

Loar designs, builds, and sells specialized components used across aircraft, aerospace systems, and military defense equipment. Its parts are engineered for use in various aviation and defense applications, and the company has built its identity around supplying these niche, purpose-built components rather than broader aerospace products.

The business centers on manufacturing and marketing these specialized parts to customers operating within the aircraft, aerospace, and military defense fields. Its work supports systems used across both commercial and defense-related aviation contexts.

Loar began operating on August 21, 2017, and its headquarters are located in White Plains, New York. Shares of the company are listed on the NYSE under the ticker LOAR.

Listed
NYSE
Sector
Electronic technology
Industry
Aerospace & defense
Website
loargroup.com

Loar GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Loar’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 64.9, in the Accumulation zone, down 3.5 points over five sessions.

010064.9Accumulation

Down 3.5 points over five sessions.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying33+1.5%+4.3%+3.5%+9.9%
Accumulation (current zone)2060.0%+1.1%+4.1%+7.2%
Neutral321+1.0%+1.1%+0.8%+2.9%
Distribution42−3.1%−5.2%−3.2%−9.1%
Selling0Not available

Average LOAR share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the LOAR price, zone by zone.Track LOAR in Gekko

Is Loar stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Loar trades 1.0% above Gekko Fair Value of $62.97, so the shares are about fair value on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Loar shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$62.97

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026

1.0% above fair value · About fair value

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open LOAR in Gekko

Loar insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Loar, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for LOAR in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every LOAR insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open LOAR in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in LOAR were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for LOAR, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open LOAR in Gekko

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Sep 30

0of the funds Gekko tracks hold LOAR.

0added0opened0trimmed2sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

Loar earnings: next date and track record

Loar reports on Nov 11, 2026 (43 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports.

4 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±5.5%average move across the report
1 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−6.7%Nov ’24−1.3%Mar ’25−16.2%May ’25−0.2%Aug ’25−6.4%Nov ’25+3.7%Feb ’26−3.3%May ’26−6.3%Aug ’26

Last earnings call, Aug 6, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Loar Holdings reported a very strong Q2 2026 with record sales ($172M), record adjusted EBITDA and record adjusted EBITDA margins (16th consecutive quarter of sequential adjusted EBITDA records). Management highlighted broad-based demand across commercial OEM (up 28% YoY), commercial aftermarket (up 12% YoY) and defense (up 8% YoY) on a pro forma basis including recent acquisitions. The company emphasized successful conversion of its new-business pipeline (approximately $750M revenue potential over five years, with ~ $200M of initial orders/visibility), disciplined M&A execution (four acquisitions since IPO, $1.1B invested), and improvements in supply chain and talent. Management raised full-year 2026 guidance and expressed high confidence in meeting or beating the high end of the range. Management also noted capacity and investment needs in certain businesses (Fans & Motors, restraints, brakes) and called out noncash amortization and higher interest expense as GAAP headwinds. Overall tone was confident and constructive, with management repeatedly stressing disciplined focus, certification wins, and sustained secular tailwinds for aerospace.
Guidance
Updated calendar year 2026 guidance (pro forma): Net sales $665M - $675M; Adjusted EBITDA $265M - $270M, adjusted EBITDA margin ~40%; GAAP net income $56M - $60M; Adjusted EPS approx $1.32 (truncated in transcript). End-market growth expectations for calendar 2026 (pro forma): Commercial OE up high double-digits; Commercial aftermarket up low double-digits; Defense up mid-single-digits. Organic pipeline: ~$750M revenue potential over next 5 years; ~$200M of initial orders/visibility (PO-to-PO, not under long-term agreements).
Risks flagged
Capacity constraints and need for capital investment in Fans & Motors, restraints and brakes to keep up with demand; lumpiness and timing of defense orders; higher interest expense and noncash amortization reducing GAAP margins; potential supply-chain or 'black swan' events; reliance on PO-to-PO conversions rather than long-term agreements; inventory/destocking risk in aftermarket (management views risk as largely behind them).
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Aug 6, 2026$0.33
est $0.27
+22.2%$171.6M
est $162.8M
+5.4%−6.3%
May 7, 2026$0.12
est $0.20
−40.0%$156.1M
est $149.7M
+4.3%−3.3%
Feb 26, 2026$0.13
est $0.19
−32.8%$131.8M
est $128.0M
+2.9%+3.7%
Nov 12, 2025$0.35
est $0.22
+61.5%$126.8M
est $125.5M
+1.0%−6.4%
Aug 13, 2025$0.23
est $0.19
+21.1%$123.1M
est $126.8M
−2.9%−0.2%
May 13, 2025$0.16
est $0.19
−15.8%$114.7M
est $112.6M
+1.8%−16.2%
Mar 5, 2025$0.04
est $0.15
−73.7%$110.4M
est $102.5M
+7.7%−1.3%
Nov 13, 2024$0.15
est $0.14
+7.1%$103.5M
est $97.30M
+6.4%−6.7%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Loar stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Loar is $89.80, +41.3% from the last close, from 4 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$89.80consensus 12-month target, +41.3% from the last close
Low $82High $107
Buy3
Hold1
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 4 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 1Goldman SachsBuy, maintained$107+68.3%
Aug 10Morgan StanleyHold, reiterated$82+29.0%
Aug 9Goldman SachsBuy, maintained$107+68.3%
Aug 9JefferiesBuy, maintained$88+38.4%
Aug 7RBC CapitalBuy, maintained$85+33.7%
+4.1%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
±3.8%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Loar market cap and key statistics

Loar’s market cap is $5.95B, with a P/E ratio of 89.6 and revenue of $586.2M over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$5.95B
P/E ratio
89.6
Forward P/E
40.3
EPS, TTM
$0.73
Gekko Fair Value
$62.97

Trading

Volume
646,106
Avg volume, 20 days
731,760
52-week high
$83.43
52-week low
$53.15
Shares outstanding
93.69M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$586.2M
Profit margin
11.6%
Return on equity
5.8%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+5.2%

Risk and income

Beta
0.56
Typical daily move
±3.8%
Typical 20-day move
±8.1%

Loar stock news this week

2 headlines about Loar from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.

Loar peers

Loar’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
GEGE Aerospace−1.0%Accumulation0.8% below
RTXRTX−0.1%Accumulation12.0% below
BABoeing−4.3%Buying22.4% below
LMTLockheed Martin−0.2%Accumulation19.7% below
HWMHowmet Aerospace−1.2%Accumulation3.2% below
GDGeneral Dynamics−0.2%Accumulation9.8% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

Loar stock FAQ

What is Loar’s market cap?

Loar’s market cap is $5.95B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $63.57, with 93.69M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 89.6.

What is the Loar stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Loar is $89.80, +41.3% from the last close. Of the 4 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 3 rate it a buy, 1 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Loar stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Loar is about fair value: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $63.57 is 1.0% above Gekko Fair Value of $62.97. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Loar report earnings next?

Loar is expected to report on Nov 11, 2026 (43 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.33 per share on revenue of $170.3M. Loar beat the earnings estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports, moving 5.5% on average across the report.

What is Loar’s 52-week high and low?

Loar’s 52-week high is $83.43 and its 52-week low is $53.15; it closed at $63.57 on Sep 28, 2026, −18.2% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $99.67 on May 12, 2025.

Is Loar stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 4 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex and earnings risk), 2 as mixed (trend and fair value). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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