NYSE: IOT

Samsara (IOT) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$37.93−0.03 (−0.1%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

This week's news around Samsara centers on new customer and partnership announcements rather than financial results: the company revealed a season-long sponsorship with the Laval Rocket hockey club and announced that Asplundh has selected Samsara to support its vegetation management and infrastructure operations across North America. A separate item also highlighted Samsara's MCP tool, aimed at bringing operational data into existing AI workflows. Also noted was a Form 4 filing showing Samsara's Chief Accounting Officer sold 770 shares at $40.42 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan.

Samsara trades at $37.93, down 0.1% on the day, sitting between its 50-day average of $38.74 and 200-day average of $33.70. Over the past month the stock is down 9.4%, though it remains up 18.2% over three months and 27.5% over six months. The GekkoIndex reads 61, placing it in the Accumulation zone. Gekko Fair Value stands at $37.56, putting the current price about 1% above that mark.

Samsara's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 December 2026, 65 days out and beyond a typical 20-day holding window. The prior quarter showed an EPS beat, with a 9.3% reaction, part of a streak of 8 beats in 8 quarters. Seasonality over the next 20 trading days has averaged -0.8% across 4 years, rising in 3 of those years. Analyst coverage includes 13 buy ratings, 5 hold, and no sell ratings among 18 firms, with a consensus target of $52.16.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

Samsara price vs fair value

$37.93$37.56Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $37.93200-day averageGekko Fair Value $37.56

Samsara quick facts

Market cap
$21.89B
P/E ratio
253.1
Forward P/E
52.4
EPS, TTM
$0.15
Revenue, TTM
$1.85B
Profit margin
4.9%
Dividend yield
—
Beta
1.34
Volume
4.44M avg 7.77M
1-year return
−1.5%
Typical daily move
±5.4%
Typical 20-day move
±12.1%
50-day average
$38.74
200-day average
$33.70
Next earnings
Dec 3 after close
Shares outstanding
380.3M
52-week range
$23.38$47.47

Samsara swing-trade checklist

Samsara scores 2 supportive, 3 mixed and 0 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

2 supportive3 mixed0 headwinds

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $37.93 sits between the 50-day ($38.74) and 200-day ($33.70) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    61, Accumulation

    Reading 61 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuemixed

    1.0% above

    Price is within 5% of Gekko Fair Value (1% above).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 65 days

    Next report Dec 3, 2026, 65 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitymixed

    −0.8% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −0.8% over 4 years, rising in 3 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Samsara stock chart and price history

Samsara closed at $37.93 on Sep 28, 2026, −1.5% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $23.38 to $47.47.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Samsara share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$25$30$35$40$45NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep37.93

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−9.4%
3 months
+18.2%
6 months
+27.5%
1 year
−1.5%
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Samsara GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Samsara’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 61, in the Accumulation zone, down 0.2 points over five sessions.

010061Accumulation

Down 0.2 points over five sessions.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying55−0.2%+1.8%+8.1%+14.5%
Accumulation (current zone)208+0.9%+2.9%+5.5%+2.7%
Neutral362+0.8%+0.6%+0.5%+2.1%
Distribution45−3.1%−6.5%−13.2%−9.1%
Selling2Too few readings yet

Average IOT share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the IOT price, zone by zone.Track IOT in Gekko

Is Samsara stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Samsara trades 1.0% above Gekko Fair Value of $37.56, so the shares are about fair value on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Samsara shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$37.56

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 29, 2026

1.0% above fair value · About fair value

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open IOT in Gekko

Samsara insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Samsara, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for IOT in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every IOT insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open IOT in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in IOT were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for IOT, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open IOT in Gekko

Buybacks

Samsara has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended May 2, 2026
$34.35M
As a share of market cap
0.16%

From company filings.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30

3of the funds Gekko tracks hold IOT.

2added1opened0trimmed0sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

Samsara earnings: next date and track record

Samsara reports on Dec 3, 2026, after the close (65 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports.

8 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±12.5%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−6.4%Dec ’24−18.9%Mar ’25−3.5%Jun ’25+18.5%Sep ’25+15.9%Dec ’25+23.2%Mar ’26−4.2%Jun ’26+9.3%Sep ’26

Last earnings call, Sep 3, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Samsara crossed $2.1 billion ARR in Q2 FY2027, growing 30% YoY driven by $134M net new ARR. Large customer cohort ($100K+ ARR) reached $1.3B ARR, growing 38% YoY with 242 new $100K+ customers and 20 new $1M+ customers—both quarterly records. The platform surpassed 30 trillion data points annually, up 40% YoY. New product launches including AI agents, Tracking Labels, and Waste Intelligence showed strong adoption, up 4x in two months.
Guidance
No explicit forward-looking financial targets or guidance figures were provided in this excerpt. Management signaled continued confidence in large enterprise momentum with four consecutive quarters of accelerating $100K+ customer ARR growth.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Sep 3, 2026$0.03
est $0.02
+50.0%$508.4M
est $483.3M
+5.2%+9.3%
Jun 4, 2026$0.17
est $0.13
+30.8%$478.8M
est $455.2M
+5.2%−4.2%
Mar 5, 2026$0.18
est $0.13
+40.1%$444.3M
est $422.3M
+5.2%+23.2%
Dec 4, 2025$0.15
est $0.12
+26.9%$416.0M
est $399.3M
+4.2%+15.9%
Sep 4, 2025$0.12
est $0.07
+65.9%$391.5M
est $372.2M
+5.2%+18.5%
Jun 5, 2025$0.11
est $0.06
+89.9%$366.9M
est $351.4M
+4.4%−3.5%
Mar 6, 2025−$0.02
est −$0.07
+71.4%$346.3M
est $335.3M
+3.3%−18.9%
Dec 5, 2024$0.07
est $0.04
+75.0%$322.0M
est $310.6M
+3.7%−6.4%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Samsara stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Samsara is $52.16, +37.5% from the last close, from 18 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$52.16consensus 12-month target, +37.5% from the last close
Low $39High $58
Buy13
Hold5
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 18 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 18Morgan StanleyHold, reiterated$49+29.2%
Sep 16Berenberg BankHold, maintained$39+2.8%
Sep 14Cantor FitzgeraldBuy, initiated$45+18.6%
Sep 14Cantor FitzgeraldBuy, initiated$45+18.6%
Sep 9J.P. MorganHold, maintained$52+37.1%
+5.5%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
−0.8%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 4 years
±5.4%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Samsara seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, Samsara averaged −0.8% across the last 4 years, rising in 3 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+1.2%2022−11.9%2023−1.1%2024+7.2%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+5.6%4 of 4
Next 10 trading days−2.0%2 of 4
Next 15 trading days−2.3%1 of 4
Next 20 trading days−0.8%3 of 4
Next 30 trading days−2.3%2 of 4

For scale, IOT’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 12.1%.

Samsara market cap and key statistics

Samsara’s market cap is $21.89B, with a P/E ratio of 253.1 and revenue of $1.85B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$21.89B
P/E ratio
253.1
Forward P/E
52.4
EPS, TTM
$0.15
Gekko Fair Value
$37.56

Trading

Volume
4.44M
Avg volume, 20 days
7.77M
52-week high
$47.47
52-week low
$23.38
Shares outstanding
380.3M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$1.85B
Profit margin
4.9%
Return on equity
6.4%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
0.0%

Risk and income

Beta
1.34
Typical daily move
±5.4%
Typical 20-day move
±12.1%

Samsara stock news this week

Coverage of Samsara this week reads neutral: 0 positive, 2 neutral and 1 negative headlines.

News sentiment neutral

Samsara peers

Samsara’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
MSFTMicrosoft+0.7%Neutral17.3% above
PLTRPalantir Technologies+0.7%Neutral15.7% above
ORCLOracle−0.1%Accumulation25.9% below
PANWPalo Alto Networks+5.8%Neutral16.1% above
CRWDCrowdStrike+4.2%Neutral27.2% above
CRMSalesforce+1.0%Neutral5.9% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

Samsara stock FAQ

What is Samsara’s market cap?

Samsara’s market cap is $21.89B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $37.93, with 380.3M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 253.1.

What is the Samsara stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Samsara is $52.16, +37.5% from the last close. Of the 18 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 13 rate it a buy, 5 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Samsara stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Samsara is about fair value: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $37.93 is 1.0% above Gekko Fair Value of $37.56. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Samsara report earnings next?

Samsara is expected to report on Dec 3, 2026, after the market closes (65 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.19 per share on revenue of $515.2M. Samsara beat the earnings estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports, moving 12.5% on average across the report.

What is Samsara’s 52-week high and low?

Samsara’s 52-week high is $47.47 and its 52-week low is $23.38; it closed at $37.93 on Sep 28, 2026, −1.5% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $61.90 on Feb 19, 2025.

Is Samsara stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex and earnings risk), 3 as mixed (trend, fair value and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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