NYSE: FLO

Flowers Foods (FLO) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Oct 12 close

$6.04+0.23 (+4.0%)

Gekko Brief

AI summaryOct 12 close

Flowers Foods this week is dominated by the Nature's Own Hawaiian Bread recall for undeclared milk, which affected distribution in five states and raised quality-control questions, alongside continued fallout from the Q2 miss, where revenue fell 4% year over year and adjusted EPS came in below consensus, prompting a lowered fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance. Analysts have responded with a cautious stance, including a published Reduce rating, as margin pressure from weak volumes and fixed-cost absorption remains a focus. A Form 144 filing and an officer's planned sale of shares valued at $25,936.50 were also noted but are secondary to the operational and earnings news.

The stock closed at $6.04, up 4% on the day, but remains below both its 50-day average of $6.50 and 200-day average of $8.33, with the 50-day below the 200-day. Over the past year the shares are down 51.8%, including a 27.1% decline over three months. The GekkoIndex reads 60.9, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone, while price sits 44% below the Gekko Fair Value of $10.78.

The next earnings date falls on 5 November, 24 days away, inside the typical 20-trading-day hold period, with the prior report showing EPS of $0.21 against a $0.23 estimate and a 6.8% reaction. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the respective 90-day and 30-day windows. Seasonality over five years shows an average 20-day return of 2.1%, positive in 3 of those years. The consensus analyst target stands at $7.40.

Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

Flowers Foods price vs fair value

$10.78$6.04Oct ’25Apr ’26Oct ’26
Close $6.04200-day averageGekko Fair Value $10.78

Flowers Foods quick facts

Market cap
$1.28B
P/E ratio
22
Forward P/E
22.9
EPS, TTM
$0.27
Revenue, TTM
$5.22B
Profit margin
1.1%
Dividend yield
14.90%
Beta
0.43
Volume
6.11M avg 7.97M
1-year return
−51.8%
Typical daily move
±3.6%
Typical 20-day move
±4.5%
50-day average
$6.50
200-day average
$8.33
Next earnings
Nov 5
Shares outstanding
212.1M
52-week range
$5.40$13.11

Flowers Foods swing-trade checklist

Flowers Foods scores 3 supportive, 0 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive0 mixed2 headwinds

  • Trendheadwind

    Below 50 and 200-day

    Close $6.04 is below the 50-day ($6.50) and 200-day ($8.33) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    60.9, Accumulation

    Reading 60.9 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    44.0% below

    Price is 44% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskheadwind

    Reports in 24 days

    Reports on Nov 5, 2026, 24 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +2.1% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +2.1% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Flowers Foods stock chart and price history

Flowers Foods closed at $6.04 on Oct 12, 2026, −51.8% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $5.40 to $13.11.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Flowers Foods share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$5$10$15NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct6.04

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−0.8%
3 months
−27.1%
6 months
−26.5%
1 year
−51.8%
The full FLO chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open FLO in Gekko

Follow Flowers Foods through every session

Put FLO on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

Track FLO in GekkoFree for 7 days. No credit card required.

About Flowers Foods

Flowers Foods makes and sells packaged bakery products across the United States, covering fresh breads, buns, rolls, snack cakes, and tortillas, as well as frozen bread and roll items. It markets these goods under several well-known labels, among them Nature's Own, Dave's Killer Bread, Wonder, Canyon Bakehouse, Mrs. Freshley's, and Tastykake.

The company gets its products to market through a mix of direct-store-delivery and warehouse distribution, running 46 bakeries, most of which it owns outright with a small number leased. Its customers range widely, including large retailers, supermarkets, convenience stores, restaurant chains and quick-service outlets, in-store bakeries, foodservice distributors, wholesalers, institutional buyers, dollar stores, and vending operators.

The business traces back to 1919 and operated as Flowers Industries before taking the Flowers Foods name in 2001. It is headquartered in Thomasville, Georgia, and its shares trade on the NYSE under the ticker FLO.

Listed
NYSE
Sector
Consumer non-durables
Industry
Food: specialty/candy
Website
flowersfoods.com

Flowers Foods GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Flowers Foods’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 60.9, in the Accumulation zone, down 8.2 points over five sessions.

010060.9Accumulation

Down 8.2 points over five sessions.

Reading for Oct 12, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying80+0.3%−0.7%−2.9%−6.3%
Accumulation (current zone)371−1.1%−2.0%−3.1%−8.6%
Neutral209−1.1%−2.1%−4.9%−10.2%
Distribution21−0.6%−2.2%−6.3%−9.5%
Selling1Too few readings yet

Average FLO share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the FLO price, zone by zone.Track FLO in Gekko

Is Flowers Foods stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Flowers Foods trades 44.0% below Gekko Fair Value of $10.78, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Flowers Foods shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$10.78

Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026

44.0% Undervalued

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 11.6% below the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$11$6Aug 2026SepOct 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open FLO in Gekko

Flowers Foods insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Flowers Foods, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for FLO in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every FLO insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open FLO in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in FLO were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for FLO, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open FLO in Gekko

Buybacks

Flowers Foods has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Jul 18, 2026
$37K
As a share of market cap
0.00%

From company filings.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Mar 31

1of the funds Gekko tracks holds FLO.

0added1opened0trimmed0sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

Flowers Foods earnings: next date and track record

Flowers Foods reports on Nov 5, 2026 (24 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports.

5 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±5.2%average move across the report
2 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−2.1%Nov ’24−4.6%Feb ’25+0.4%May ’25−4.9%Aug ’25−1.9%Nov ’25−11.4%Feb ’26+9.7%May ’26−6.8%Aug ’26

Last earnings call, Aug 20, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Flowers Foods Q2 2026 results missed expectations amid a challenging fresh packaged bread category pressured by consumer budget constraints, shifting preferences, and competitive activity. Management is accelerating innovation in smaller formats, sourdough, and protein products while pursuing new business wins. The Nature's Own relaunch began a few months ago with positive early customer and social media feedback. Over the past several years, the company has removed approximately $200 million in costs.
Guidance
Back half improvement expected driven by significant new business wins, additional cost savings measures, and innovation rollouts. Q3 still expected to show year-over-year declines, with Q4 normalization anticipated from lapping prior-year pricing, reduced elasticities, and Nature's Own marketing investment stabilization.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Aug 20, 2026$0.21
est $0.23
−8.7%$1.19B
est $1.23B
−3.0%−6.8%
May 21, 2026$0.29
est $0.27
+7.4%$1.57B
est $1.58B
−0.5%+9.7%
Feb 12, 2026$0.22
est $0.16
+40.0%$1.23B
est $1.23B
+0.2%−11.4%
Nov 6, 2025$0.23
est $0.23
0.0%$1.23B
est $1.23B
−0.2%−1.9%
Aug 15, 2025$0.30
est $0.29
+3.4%$1.24B
est $1.24B
−0.2%−4.9%
May 16, 2025$0.35
est $0.38
−7.9%$1.55B
est $1.29B
+20.4%+0.4%
Feb 7, 2025$0.22
est $0.21
+4.8%$1.11B
est $1.60B
−30.3%−4.6%
Nov 8, 2024$0.33
est $0.29
+13.8%$1.19B
est $1.20B
−0.7%−2.1%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Flowers Foods stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Flowers Foods is $7.40, +22.5% from the last close, from 3 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$7.40consensus 12-month target, +22.5% from the last close
Low $5High $6
Buy0
Hold2
Sell1

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 3 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Oct 7Exane BNP ParibasSell, maintained$5−17.2%
Oct 6JefferiesHold, reiterated$6−0.7%
Aug 24StephensHold, maintained$6−0.7%
Aug 3JefferiesHold, reiterated$7+15.9%
−3.1%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+2.1%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.6%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Flowers Foods seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Flowers Foods averaged +2.1% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+1.4%2021+13.5%2022+2.0%2023−2.1%2024−5.8%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+1.2%3 of 5
Next 10 trading days+1.0%2 of 5
Next 15 trading days+1.6%2 of 5
Next 20 trading days+2.1%3 of 5
Next 30 trading days+0.6%2 of 5

For scale, FLO’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 4.5%.

Flowers Foods market cap and key statistics

Flowers Foods’s market cap is $1.28B, with a P/E ratio of 22 and revenue of $5.22B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$1.28B
P/E ratio
22
Forward P/E
22.9
EPS, TTM
$0.27
Gekko Fair Value
$10.78

Trading

Volume
6.11M
Avg volume, 20 days
7.97M
52-week high
$13.11
52-week low
$5.40
Shares outstanding
212.1M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$5.22B
Profit margin
1.1%
Return on equity
4%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+20.0%

Risk and income

Beta
0.43
Typical daily move
±3.6%
Typical 20-day move
±4.5%
Dividend yield
14.90%

Flowers Foods stock news this week

Coverage of Flowers Foods this week reads negative: 0 positive, 2 neutral and 7 negative headlines.

News sentiment negative

Flowers Foods peers

Flowers Foods’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
PEPPepsiCo−0.1%Accumulation17.9% below
MDLZMondelez International+2.0%Neutral18.6% below
HSYHershey+1.1%Accumulation30.0% below
IFFInternational Flavors & Fragrances+0.9%Neutral4.8% below
SJMJ.M. Smucker−0.1%Neutral6.4% above
MKCMcCormick+1.5%Accumulation17.7% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

Flowers Foods stock FAQ

What is Flowers Foods’s market cap?

Flowers Foods’s market cap is $1.28B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $6.04, with 212.1M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 22.

What is the Flowers Foods stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Flowers Foods is $7.40, +22.5% from the last close. Of the 3 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 0 rate it a buy, 2 a hold and 1 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Flowers Foods stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Flowers Foods is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $6.04 is 44.0% below Gekko Fair Value of $10.78. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Flowers Foods report earnings next?

Flowers Foods is expected to report on Nov 5, 2026 (24 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.15 per share on revenue of $1.18B. Flowers Foods beat the earnings estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports, moving 5.2% on average across the report.

What is Flowers Foods’s 52-week high and low?

Flowers Foods’s 52-week high is $13.11 and its 52-week low is $5.40; it closed at $6.04 on Oct 12, 2026, −51.8% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $30.16 on Dec 2, 2022.

Is Flowers Foods stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and seasonality) and 2 as headwinds (trend and earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

See Flowers Foods the way Gekko members do

Every GekkoIndex reading, insider trade, options bet and Congress disclosure plotted on the chart, plus the 5,800-name screener and trade planning tools.

Join 1,408 other traders using Gekko

Start Your FREE 7 Day Trial → Every feature unlocked. No credit card required.