Insider buying last 90 days
$143Kin 1 open-market purchase
| Filed | Insider | Type | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6 | Henry N Nassau Director | Purchase | $143K |
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$10.83−0.20 (−1.8%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryOct 12 closeThis week Blackstone Mortgage Trust set a new 12-month low after Keefe, Bruyette and Woods cut its price target from $16.00 to $13.00 while maintaining a market perform rating. The company also declared a $0.47 per share dividend for the third quarter of 2026, payable on October 15, with coverage described as tight, as distributable earnings before realized gains and losses slightly exceeded the payout. Separately, president Fernando Austin Pena sold $20,091 of stock to cover tax withholding on restricted stock awards.
BXMT closed at $10.83, down 1.8% on the day and sitting below both its 50-day average of $13.28 and its 200-day average of $17.32, with the 50-day below the 200-day. The stock is down 18.9% over one month, 36.7% over three months and 45.2% over six months, and it sits at its 52-week low of $10.75 against a 52-week high of $20.67. The GekkoIndex reading of 70.6 places it in the Buying zone, and the price stands 48.2% below Gekko Fair Value of $20.92.
BXMT reports third-quarter 2026 earnings on 29 October, before the open, 17 days away and inside a typical 20-day holding window; its Q2 report produced an 11.3% reaction. Over the last 90 days there has been one open-market insider purchase valued at $143,357. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 5.2% gain over 5 years, rising in 5 of those years. The consensus analyst target stands at $18.86 across 5 firms, with 2 buy and 3 hold ratings.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Blackstone Mortgage Trust price vs fair value
Close $10.83200-day averageGekko Fair Value $20.92
Blackstone Mortgage Trust quick facts
- Market cap
- $1.83B
- P/E ratio
- 140.6
- Forward P/E
- 57.1
- EPS, TTM
- $0.08
- Revenue, TTM
- $402.6M
- Profit margin
- 3.8%
- Dividend yield
- 17.10%
- Beta
- 0.96
- Volume
- 2.66M avg 3.25M
- 1-year return
- −39.7%
- Typical daily move
- ±3.7%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±4.8%
- 50-day average
- $13.28
- 200-day average
- $17.32
- Next earnings
- Oct 29 before open
- Shares outstanding
- 168.5M
Blackstone Mortgage Trust swing-trade checklist
Blackstone Mortgage Trust scores 4 supportive, 0 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
4 supportive0 mixed2 headwinds
- Trendheadwind
Below 50 and 200-day
Close $10.83 is below the 50-day ($13.28) and 200-day ($17.32) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
70.6, Buying
Reading 70.6 is in the Buying zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
48.2% below
Price is 48.2% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneysupportive
Leans bullish
Last 90 days: 1 open-market insider purchase.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 17 days
Reports on Oct 29, 2026, 17 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+5.2% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +5.2% over 5 years, rising in 5 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Blackstone Mortgage Trust stock chart and price history
Blackstone Mortgage Trust closed at $10.83 on Oct 12, 2026, −39.7% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $10.75 to $20.67.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −18.9%
- 3 months
- −36.7%
- 6 months
- −45.2%
- 1 year
- −39.7%
The full BXMT chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open BXMT in Gekko
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About Blackstone Mortgage Trust
Blackstone Mortgage Trust works in commercial real estate finance, focusing on originating senior loans backed by commercial properties. Its lending activity extends across North America, Europe, and Australia, making debt secured by property its core line of business.
The company operates under a structure that qualifies it as a Real Estate Investment Trust for U.S. federal tax purposes. This status generally allows it to avoid paying federal corporate income tax, provided it pays out at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders. The company was known as Capital Trust, Inc. before taking on its present name in May 2013.
Blackstone Mortgage Trust traces its founding back to 1997 and keeps its main office in New York City. Its shares trade under the ticker BXMT.
- Sector
- Finance
- Website
- blackstonemortgagetrust.com
Blackstone Mortgage Trust GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 70.6, in the Buying zone, down 4.3 points over five sessions.
70.6Buying
Down 4.3 points over five sessions.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying (current zone) | 41 | −1.3% | +0.3% | ||
| Accumulation | 266 | −0.3% | −1.3% | ||
| Neutral | 302 | −0.2% | −1.0% | ||
| Distribution | 26 | −1.3% | −3.6% | ||
| Selling | 0 | Not available | |||
Average BXMT share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Buying readings averaged +3.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Buying zone: Smart money likely accumulating heavily. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the BXMT price, zone by zone.Track BXMT in Gekko
Is Blackstone Mortgage Trust stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Blackstone Mortgage Trust trades 48.2% below Gekko Fair Value of $20.92, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Blackstone Mortgage Trust shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$20.92
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 9, 2026
48.2% Undervalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 21.8% below the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open BXMT in Gekko
Blackstone Mortgage Trust insider and Congress trading
Insiders filed 1 open-market purchase in Blackstone Mortgage Trust worth $143K, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in BXMT were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for BXMT, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open BXMT in Gekko
Buybacks
Blackstone Mortgage Trust has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $3.03M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.17%
- Trailing four quarters
- $81.66M
From company filings.
Blackstone Mortgage Trust earnings: next date and track record
Blackstone Mortgage Trust reports on Oct 29, 2026, before the open (17 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Oct 29, 2026
Expected before the open, 17 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.25
- Revenue estimate
- $148.5M
6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±3.8%average move across the report
5 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Jul 30, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) reported Q2 2026 results showing active portfolio rotation and deployment into high-conviction sectors. Financial highlights: GAAP net loss of $0.48 per share, distributable earnings (DE) of $0.31 per share, and DE prior to realized gains/losses of $0.48 per share (which covered the $0.47 dividend paid). The company received $1.2 billion of repayments (mostly seasoned pre-2023 loans) and deployed $1.4 billion into new investments concentrated in residential, industrial, and net lease, including entry into single-family home builder finance ($130 million at share in a JV). Net lease portfolio stood at $661 million (3% of portfolio) with continued planned growth. Management highlighted progress on legacy exposures, including resolution of an impaired multifamily loan (foreclosure -> REO) and modification of a large watchlist loan, producing a 23% reduction in the watchlist quarter-over-quarter. CECL reserves increased materially (adding $0.80 per share), driven largely by a Chicago office loan impairment; book value declined to $19.31 per share (down 4% QoQ). Management noted an optional loan sale process for ~$1 billion of office loans, active capital markets/liquidity, and continued redeployment into sectors with attractive risk-adjusted returns. They reiterated leverage targets in the 3x-4x debt-to-equity range and said Q3 DE will likely be impacted by recent impairments and timing of repayments. No explicit multi-quarter numeric guidance was provided beyond these qualitative expectations.
- Guidance
- Qualitative forward-looking comments: Expectation that Q3 distributable earnings will be impacted by Q2 impairments and timing of large repayments collected in July; leverage target maintained at 3x-4x debt-to-equity. No explicit numeric revenue or EPS guidance provided.
- Risks flagged
- Risks noted on the call include elevated CECL reserves and recent impairments (Chicago office loan, a Dallas multifamily loan moved to REO), watchlist exposure largely in office assets (~$1 billion of marginally rate-impacted loans), potential for additional realized losses depending on sale proceeds or asset resolutions, near-term distributable earnings volatility as portfolio turnover occurs, and broader office-sector weakness and macro interest-rate uncertainty affecting refinancing/liquidity.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | $0.45 est $0.36 | $158.1M est $157.3M | −11.3% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | $0.21 est $0.35 | $159.4M est $118.8M | −5.1% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | $0.51 est $0.22 | $83.92M est $125.7M | +0.7% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | $0.24 est $0.19 | $132.7M est $108.2M | +2.0% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | $0.19 est $0.20 | $133.9M est $94.80M | −4.6% |
| Apr 30, 2025 | $0.17 est $0.01 | $126.9M est $92.00M | +0.1% |
| Feb 12, 2025 | $0.44 est −$0.87 | $114.4M est $110.6M | +5.0% |
| Oct 23, 2024 | $0.49 est $0.36 | $112.0M est $110.1M | +1.7% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Blackstone Mortgage Trust stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Blackstone Mortgage Trust is $18.86, +74.1% from the last close, from 5 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$18.86consensus 12-month target, +74.1% from the last close
Now $10.83Avg $18.86
Low $16High $18
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 5 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16 | KBW | $16 | +47.7% |
| Aug 5 | B. Riley Securities | — | — |
| Aug 4 | J.P. Morgan | $18 | +66.2% |
| Aug 4 | Bank of America Securities | $16 | +47.7% |
| Aug 3 | Wells Fargo | $18 | +66.2% |
+0.3%average 20-day move after past Buying readings
+5.2%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.7%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Blackstone Mortgage Trust seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Blackstone Mortgage Trust averaged +5.2% across the last 5 years, rising in 5 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +3.2% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +2.6% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +4.5% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +5.2% | 5 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +5.2% | 5 of 5 |
For scale, BXMT’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 4.8%.
Blackstone Mortgage Trust market cap and key statistics
Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s market cap is $1.83B, with a P/E ratio of 140.6 and revenue of $402.6M over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $1.83B
- P/E ratio
- 140.6
- Forward P/E
- 57.1
- EPS, TTM
- $0.08
- Gekko Fair Value
- $20.92
Trading
- Volume
- 2.66M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 3.25M
- 52-week high
- $20.67
- 52-week low
- $10.75
- Shares outstanding
- 168.5M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $402.6M
- Profit margin
- 3.8%
- Return on equity
- 0.5%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +9.7%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.96
- Typical daily move
- ±3.7%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±4.8%
- Dividend yield
- 17.10%
Blackstone Mortgage Trust stock news this week
Coverage of Blackstone Mortgage Trust this week reads negative: 0 positive, 1 neutral and 3 negative headlines.
- Blackstone Mortgage Trust (NYSE:BXMT) Sets New 12-Month Low on Analyst DowngradeDefense World, Oct 12
- Blackstone Mortgage Trust president sells $20,091 of BXMT stock By Investing.comInvesting.com Nigeria, Oct 8
- Blackstone Mortgage Trust president sells $20,091 of BXMT stockInvesting.com, Oct 8
- Blackstone Mortgage Trust declares USD 0.47 dividend per Blackstone Mortgage Trust stockAD HOC NEWS, Oct 7
- Blackstone Mortgage Trust Announces Third-Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference CallBusiness Wire, Oct 7
- Blackstone Mortgage Trust (NYSE:BXMT) Reaches New 52-Week Low – Should You Sell?Defense World, Oct 5
Blackstone Mortgage Trust stock FAQ
What is Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s market cap?
Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s market cap is $1.83B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $10.83, with 168.5M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 140.6.
What is the Blackstone Mortgage Trust stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Blackstone Mortgage Trust is $18.86, +74.1% from the last close. Of the 5 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 2 rate it a buy, 3 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Blackstone Mortgage Trust stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Blackstone Mortgage Trust is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $10.83 is 48.2% below Gekko Fair Value of $20.92. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Blackstone Mortgage Trust report earnings next?
Blackstone Mortgage Trust is expected to report on Oct 29, 2026, before the market opens (17 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.25 per share on revenue of $148.5M. Blackstone Mortgage Trust beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 3.8% on average across the report.
What is Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s 52-week high and low?
Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s 52-week high is $20.67 and its 52-week low is $10.75; it closed at $10.83 on Oct 12, 2026, −39.7% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $34.04 on Nov 12, 2021.
Is Blackstone Mortgage Trust stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 4 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value, smart money and seasonality) and 2 as headwinds (trend and earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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