Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for ARR in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every ARR insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open ARR in Gekko
ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$13.75+0.16 (+1.2%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryOct 12 closeARMOUR Residential REIT draws attention this week for its confirmed dividend and continued discussion of its valuation. The company confirmed a $0.24 common dividend for October 2026, payable October 29, with a record date of October 15, alongside a $0.14583 monthly dividend for its Series C preferred stock for the fourth quarter. Separately, commentary has noted the stock trading below fair value, citing a P/E ratio of 4.6x below industry and peer averages, alongside a 42.3% share price drop over the last five years, while other near-term sentiment reads have flagged weak near and mid-term signals with a neutral long-term outlook.
ARR closed at $13.75, down from both its 50-day average of $15.45 and 200-day average of $16.86, with the 50-day below the 200-day. The GekkoIndex reads 67.8, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone. Price sits 17.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $16.69.
Earnings are scheduled for 28 October 2026, 15 days out and within a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior report on 22 July showed EPS of $0.72 against a $0.69 estimate, with a -1.8% reaction. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the current window. Seasonality over the past 5 years shows the next 20 trading days averaging +1.5%, rising in 2 of those years. The consensus price target stands at $18.38, implying 33.7% upside per that consensus.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
ARMOUR Residential REIT price vs fair value
Close $13.75200-day averageGekko Fair Value $16.69
ARMOUR Residential REIT quick facts
- Market cap
- $1.60B
- P/E ratio
- 3.3
- Forward P/E
- 5.1
- EPS, TTM
- $4.06
- Revenue, TTM
- $490.7M
- Profit margin
- 87.8%
- Dividend yield
- 21.30%
- Beta
- 1.40
- Volume
- 4.05M avg 4.78M
- 1-year return
- −12.8%
- Typical daily move
- ±3%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±4.2%
- 50-day average
- $15.45
- 200-day average
- $16.86
- Next earnings
- Oct 28
- Shares outstanding
- 141.6M
ARMOUR Residential REIT swing-trade checklist
ARMOUR Residential REIT scores 2 supportive, 1 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
2 supportive1 mixed2 headwinds
- Trendheadwind
Below 50 and 200-day
Close $13.75 is below the 50-day ($15.45) and 200-day ($16.86) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
67.8, Accumulation
Reading 67.8 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
17.6% below
Price is 17.6% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 16 days
Reports on Oct 28, 2026, 16 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitymixed
+1.5% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +1.5% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
ARMOUR Residential REIT stock chart and price history
ARMOUR Residential REIT closed at $13.75 on Oct 12, 2026, −12.8% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $13.16 to $19.31.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −13.0%
- 3 months
- −19.6%
- 6 months
- −21.7%
- 1 year
- −12.8%
The full ARR chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open ARR in Gekko
Follow ARMOUR Residential REIT through every session
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About ARMOUR Residential REIT
ARMOUR Residential REIT places capital into residential mortgage-backed securities connected to the U.S. housing market. A large share of its holdings consists of MBS issued or backed by government-sponsored entities and by the Government National Mortgage Association, drawn from pools of fixed-rate, hybrid adjustable, and adjustable-rate home loans. The company is chiefly known for concentrating its investment activity in this area of government-linked mortgage securities.
Beyond its core MBS holdings, the portfolio also includes unsecured bonds and debt issued by government-sponsored entities, U.S. Treasury securities, and money market funds, as well as other mortgage-backed securities whose payments do not carry backing from a government body or agency. Operating as a Real Estate Investment Trust under the Internal Revenue Code, ARMOUR distributes earnings to shareholders, and the distributed portion is not subject to corporate income tax.
The company was established in 2008 and is based in Vero Beach, Florida. Its shares trade under the ticker ARR.
- Sector
- Finance
- Website
- armourreit.com
ARMOUR Residential REIT GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
ARMOUR Residential REIT’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 67.8, in the Accumulation zone, down 6.5 points over five sessions.
67.8Accumulation
Down 6.5 points over five sessions, from the Buying zone.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 55 | −1.5% | +5.1% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 194 | +0.5% | −1.1% | ||
| Neutral | 365 | −0.4% | −0.9% | ||
| Distribution | 21 | −0.5% | −3.6% | ||
| Selling | 0 | Not available | |||
Average ARR share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the ARR price, zone by zone.Track ARR in Gekko
Is ARMOUR Residential REIT stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
ARMOUR Residential REIT trades 17.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $16.69, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what ARMOUR Residential REIT shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$16.69
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 9, 2026
17.6% Undervalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 8.8% below the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open ARR in Gekko
ARMOUR Residential REIT insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for ARMOUR Residential REIT, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in ARR were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for ARR, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open ARR in Gekko
Buybacks
ARMOUR Residential REIT has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Mar 31, 2026
- $2.01M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.13%
- Trailing four quarters
- $22.04M
From company filings.
ARMOUR Residential REIT earnings: next date and track record
ARMOUR Residential REIT reports on Oct 28, 2026 (16 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 2 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Oct 28, 2026
16 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.72
- Revenue estimate
- $119.8M
2 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±1.2%average move across the report
5 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Jul 22, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- ARMOUR Residential REIT reported Q2 2026 GAAP net income of $111.5M ($0.86/share) with distributable earnings of $93.2M ($0.72/share). Net interest income reached $76.8M and total economic return was 4.8%. Book value rose 0.6% to $17.53/share. The company raised $218.7M via equity issuance and maintained a $0.24/month common dividend. MBS spread tightening of 7 basis points across asset classes drove positive performance.
- Guidance
- Management expects favorable mortgage market technicals to persist into Q3, with range-bound spread environment anticipated through summer. Monthly dividend of $0.24/share declared through August 2026. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac viewed as potential backstop buyers supporting spread stability.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | $0.72 est $0.69 | $113.7M est $112.0M | −1.8% |
| Apr 22, 2026 | $0.76 est $0.78 | $109.0M est $149.3M | +0.3% |
| Feb 18, 2026 | $0.71 est $0.74 | $96.80M est $149.0M | −0.7% |
| Oct 22, 2025 | $0.72 est $0.75 | $160.8M est $62.34M | +1.6% |
| Jul 23, 2025 | $0.77 est $0.81 | $194.5M est $63.30M | +0.1% |
| Apr 23, 2025 | $0.86 est $0.93 | $177.0M est $56.90M | +4.1% |
| Feb 12, 2025 | $0.78 est $1.01 | −$45.16M est $48.41M | +0.8% |
| Oct 23, 2024 | $1.00 est $0.99 | $66.41M est $37.22M | −0.4% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
ARMOUR Residential REIT stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for ARMOUR Residential REIT is $18.38, +33.7% from the last close.
$18.38consensus 12-month target, +33.7% from the last close
−1.1%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+1.5%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
ARMOUR Residential REIT seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, ARMOUR Residential REIT averaged +1.5% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | −1.1% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −3.3% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | −2.0% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +1.5% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +1.2% | 2 of 5 |
For scale, ARR’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 4.2%.
ARMOUR Residential REIT market cap and key statistics
ARMOUR Residential REIT’s market cap is $1.60B, with a P/E ratio of 3.3 and revenue of $490.7M over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $1.60B
- P/E ratio
- 3.3
- Forward P/E
- 5.1
- EPS, TTM
- $4.06
- Gekko Fair Value
- $16.69
Trading
- Volume
- 4.05M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 4.78M
- 52-week high
- $19.31
- 52-week low
- $13.16
- Shares outstanding
- 141.6M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $490.7M
- Profit margin
- 87.8%
- Return on equity
- 20.3%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +23.1%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 1.40
- Typical daily move
- ±3%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±4.2%
- Dividend yield
- 21.30%
ARMOUR Residential REIT stock news this week
Coverage of ARMOUR Residential REIT this week reads neutral: 1 positive, 2 neutral and 1 negative headlines.
- Avoiding Lag: Real-Time Signals in (ARR) MovementStock Traders Daily, Oct 10
- ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR) Stock Trades Below Fair Value As Earnings Stay In FocusYahoo Finance, Oct 10
- ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR) Stock Price, News, Quote & HistoryYahoo! Finance Canada, Oct 9
- Rezolve AI Targets $500M ARR as Agentic Commerce Platform ScalesMarketBeat, Oct 6
- ARMOUR confirms USD 0.24 dividend for ARMOUR Residential REIT stockAD HOC NEWS, Oct 5
ARMOUR Residential REIT stock FAQ
What is ARMOUR Residential REIT’s market cap?
ARMOUR Residential REIT’s market cap is $1.60B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $13.75, with 141.6M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 3.3.
What is the ARMOUR Residential REIT stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for ARMOUR Residential REIT is $18.38, +33.7% from the last close. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is ARMOUR Residential REIT stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate ARMOUR Residential REIT is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $13.75 is 17.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $16.69. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does ARMOUR Residential REIT report earnings next?
ARMOUR Residential REIT is expected to report on Oct 28, 2026 (16 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.72 per share on revenue of $119.8M. ARMOUR Residential REIT beat the earnings estimate in 2 of its last 8 reports, moving 1.2% on average across the report.
What is ARMOUR Residential REIT’s 52-week high and low?
ARMOUR Residential REIT’s 52-week high is $19.31 and its 52-week low is $13.16; it closed at $13.75 on Oct 12, 2026, −12.8% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $55.55 on Oct 12, 2021.
Is ARMOUR Residential REIT stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex and fair value), 1 as mixed (seasonality) and 2 as headwinds (trend and earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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