NASDAQ: PRVA

Privia Health (PRVA) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Oct 12 close

$21.45+0.60 (+2.9%)
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Gekko Brief

AI summaryOct 12 close

Privia Health's stock this week reflects a mix of confirmed scheduling and lingering reaction to its last quarterly report. The company announced it will release third-quarter 2026 results before market open on 5 November 2026, with the press release expected by 7:00 am ET. Coverage also continues to reference the Q2 2026 call, which showed practice collections growth of 12.4% QoQ reaching $970 million, adjusted EBITDA up 29% to $37.4 million, and a raised 2026 outlook, alongside commentary weighing 21.4% growth against a potential second-half slowdown. Separately, Privia Health and Anthem Blue Cross and Blue Shield in Virginia reached a new agreement.

Shares closed at $21.45, up 2.9%, sitting between the 50-day average of $20.89 and the 200-day average of $22.77. The GekkoIndex reading is 49.7, placing it in the Neutral zone, down from a five-day change of -10.1. The stock trades 37.3% below the Gekko Fair Value of $34.22.

Over the next 20 trading days, the main event is the 5 November earnings date, 24 days away, following a prior quarter where actual EPS of $0.07 missed the $0.08 estimate and the stock reacted -6.3%. No insider, Congress or unusual options activity appears in the respective 90-day and 30-day windows. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged +10.1% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them. Consensus among 11 analysts stands at 10 buy and 1 hold, with a target of $31.47.

Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

Privia Health price vs fair value

▲$34.22$21.45Oct ’25Apr ’26Oct ’26
Close $21.45200-day averageGekko Fair Value $34.22

Privia Health quick facts

Market cap
$2.70B
P/E ratio
96.1
Forward P/E
17.3
EPS, TTM
$0.21
Revenue, TTM
$2.36B
Profit margin
1.2%
Dividend yield
—
Beta
0.80
Volume
1.41M avg 1.33M
1-year return
−11.4%
Typical daily move
±2.8%
Typical 20-day move
±7.4%
50-day average
$20.89
200-day average
$22.77
Next earnings
Nov 5 before open
Shares outstanding
127.7M
52-week range
$18.92$28.82

Privia Health swing-trade checklist

Privia Health scores 1 supportive, 3 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

1 supportive3 mixed1 headwind

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $21.45 sits between the 50-day ($20.89) and 200-day ($22.77) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexmixed

    49.7, Neutral

    Reading 49.7 is in the Neutral zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    37.3% below

    Price is 37.3% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskheadwind

    Reports in 24 days

    Reports on Nov 5, 2026, 24 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitymixed

    +10.1% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +10.1% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Privia Health stock chart and price history

Privia Health closed at $21.45 on Oct 12, 2026, −11.4% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $18.92 to $28.82.

5Y and weekly in Gekko
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Privia Health share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$20$24$26$28NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct21.45

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
+5.0%
3 months
−23.5%
6 months
−6.8%
1 year
−11.4%
The full PRVA chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open PRVA in Gekko

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About Privia Health

Privia Health supports physicians across the United States, helping them run independent practices while staying connected to larger medical groups, health plans and health systems. The company is known for building tools and partnerships that aim to make care delivery smoother for doctors and better for the patients they treat, whether those visits happen online or face to face.

Its business is built around several interlocking pieces. It provides software and population health resources that ease daily operations for independent providers, along with a management services arm that takes over administrative chores so clinicians can concentrate on medicine. A unified medical group structure gives its network more leverage when negotiating with insurers and keeps financial incentives consistent across providers. An accountable care organization within the company works to cut down on wasteful treatment, coordinate care more effectively, and track quality results, while a separate network links providers to new patients and allows for customized agreements with payers and purchasers.

Privia Health traces its roots to 2007 and runs its operations out of Arlington, Virginia. Its stock is listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker PRVA.

Listed
NASDAQ
Sector
Finance
Industry
Life/Health insurance
Website
priviahealth.com

Privia Health GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Privia Health’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 49.7, in the Neutral zone, down 10.1 points over five sessions.

010049.7Neutral

Down 10.1 points over five sessions.

Reading for Oct 12, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying42+1.2%+0.8%+1.9%+13.6%
Accumulation274+0.3%+0.6%+2.2%+3.5%
Neutral (current zone)3240.0%+0.1%−0.5%−0.4%
Distribution40−1.4%−2.5%−6.5%−11.8%
Selling2Too few readings yet

Average PRVA share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the PRVA price, zone by zone.Track PRVA in Gekko

Is Privia Health stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Privia Health trades 37.3% below Gekko Fair Value of $34.22, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Privia Health shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$34.22

Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026

37.3% Undervalued

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 43.8% below the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$34$21Aug 2026SepOct 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open PRVA in Gekko

Privia Health insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Privia Health, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for PRVA in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every PRVA insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open PRVA in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in PRVA were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for PRVA, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open PRVA in Gekko

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Mar 31

0of the funds Gekko tracks hold PRVA.

0added0opened0trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

Privia Health earnings: next date and track record

Privia Health reports on Nov 5, 2026, before the open (24 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 2 of its last 8 reports.

2 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±5.9%average move across the report
5 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+3.8%Feb ’25+10.3%May ’25+7.3%May ’25+4.0%Aug ’25−6.4%Nov ’25+4.9%Feb ’26−3.9%May ’26−6.3%Aug ’26

Last earnings call, Aug 6, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Privia Health Q2 2026 earnings call: Management reports strong operational and financial performance with implemented provider growth of 10.1% YoY, value-based attributed lives growth of 19.2% YoY, practice collections growth of 12.4% QoQ reaching $970M in Q2 and adjusted EBITDA up 29% to $37.4M (28.3% of care margin). First-half 2026 practice collections grew 13.4% to $1.88B; adjusted EBITDA grew 32.5% to $74.1M. Company entered New Jersey, expanded to 25 states + DC, totaling 5,644 implemented providers and 6.1M patients. Management raised 2026 outlook across key metrics (practice collections, care margin, EBITDA); implemented provider guidance unchanged. Management emphasized AI deployments across workflows to drive efficiency and margin expansion toward high end of long-term target (30-35% of care margin). Company has $412M+ cash, no debt, full cash taxpayer; expects 70-80% of adjusted EBITDA to convert to free cash flow assuming shared savings payments timing. CMS proposed MSSP changes could delay 2025 reconciliation to November, causing atypical year-end cash flow dynamics. Acquisitions Evolent and IMS integrating well; Care Partners wheel expected to expand ACO-only model and pipeline. Management reiterated long-term adjusted EBITDA growth target ~20% and potential to reach high-end margin target in coming years. Q&A topics included MSSP timing risk, margin drivers and AI use cases, New Jersey entry, provider economics, cost of platform, ACO market opportunities, managed care landscape, and acuity/utilization trends.
Guidance
Management raised 2026 outlook across practice collections, care margin, and adjusted EBITDA. Implemented provider guidance unchanged at midpoint adding 570 providers (~10.6% growth). CFO: expect 70%-80% of full-year adjusted EBITDA to convert to free cash flow (subject to timing of shared savings cash payments and business development capital deployment). No specific numeric mid- to long-term revenue/earnings guidance beyond updated 2026 outlook and long-term targets: EBITDA margin long-term target range of 30%-35% of care margin and long-term adjusted EBITDA growth target ~20% annually.
Risks flagged
CMS proposed changes to MSSP for PY2025 could delay final reconciliation and cash settlements until November, creating atypical year-end cash flow dynamics; general macro/managed care/MA plan market dynamics and payer re-evaluations that could cause state-by-state variability; execution risk in integrating acquisitions and scaling AI investments; reliance on receiving shared savings cash payments for free cash flow conversion; regulatory/program changes in ACO programs (REACH/LEAD/MSSP) could cause market disruption.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Aug 6, 2026$0.07
est $0.08		−12.5%$632.6M
est $597.3M		+5.9%−6.3%
May 7, 2026$0.19
est $0.25		−24.0%$603.8M
est $561.0M		+7.6%−3.9%
Feb 26, 2026$0.07
est $0.04		+75.0%$541.2M
est $516.2M		+4.8%+4.9%
Nov 6, 2025$0.05
est $0.06		−16.7%$580.4M
est $516.6M		+12.4%−6.4%
Aug 7, 2025$0.02
est $0.05		−60.0%$521.2M
est $485.6M		+7.3%+4.0%
May 8, 2025$0.03
est $0.06		−50.0%$480.1M
est $458.6M		+4.7%+7.3%
May 7, 2025$0.22
est $0.18		+21.0%$480.1M
est $458.6M		+4.7%+10.3%
Feb 27, 2025$0.03
est $0.05		−40.0%$460.9M
est $480.5M		−4.1%+3.8%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Privia Health stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Privia Health is $31.47, +46.7% from the last close, from 11 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$31.47consensus 12-month target, +46.7% from the last close
Low $24High $36
Buy10
Hold1
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 11 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Oct 6RBC CapitalBuy, maintained$31+44.5%
Sep 16JefferiesBuy, maintained$30+39.9%
Aug 28BarclaysHold, maintained$24+11.9%
Aug 13Truist FinancialBuy, maintained$33+53.8%
Aug 10CitiBuy, reiterated$35+63.2%
−0.5%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+10.1%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.8%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Privia Health seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Privia Health averaged +10.1% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+47.1%2021−17.0%2022−2.5%2023+31.6%2024−2.7%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+2.7%3 of 5
Next 10 trading days+2.9%3 of 5
Next 15 trading days+4.0%3 of 5
Next 20 trading days+10.1%2 of 5
Next 30 trading days+2.6%2 of 5

For scale, PRVA’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 7.4%.

Privia Health market cap and key statistics

Privia Health’s market cap is $2.70B, with a P/E ratio of 96.1 and revenue of $2.36B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$2.70B
P/E ratio
96.1
Forward P/E
17.3
EPS, TTM
$0.21
Gekko Fair Value
$34.22

Trading

Volume
1.41M
Avg volume, 20 days
1.33M
52-week high
$28.82
52-week low
$18.92
Shares outstanding
127.7M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$2.36B
Profit margin
1.2%
Return on equity
4.3%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+250.0%

Risk and income

Beta
0.80
Typical daily move
±2.8%
Typical 20-day move
±7.4%

Privia Health stock news this week

Coverage of Privia Health this week reads neutral: 1 positive, 4 neutral and 0 negative headlines.

News sentiment neutral

Privia Health peers

Privia Health’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
PRUPrudential Financial−0.2%Accumulation3.1% below
RGAReinsurance Group of America+0.9%Distribution0.4% above
CRBGCorebridge Financial+0.7%Neutral4.2% below
EQHEquitable+0.8%Neutral4.8% below
JXNJackson Financial+0.5%Accumulation5.8% below
PRIPrimerica+0.1%Accumulation9.6% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

VZTMUSTBMYINGBCS

Reporting earnings this week

JPMJNJUNHGSWFCC

Popular on Gekko

NVDATSLAMSFTAMZNMETAGOOGL

Privia Health stock FAQ

What is Privia Health’s market cap?

Privia Health’s market cap is $2.70B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $21.45, with 127.7M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 96.1.

What is the Privia Health stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Privia Health is $31.47, +46.7% from the last close. Of the 11 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 10 rate it a buy, 1 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Privia Health stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Privia Health is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $21.45 is 37.3% below Gekko Fair Value of $34.22. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Privia Health report earnings next?

Privia Health is expected to report on Nov 5, 2026, before the market opens (24 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.09 per share on revenue of $610.7M. Privia Health beat the earnings estimate in 2 of its last 8 reports, moving 5.9% on average across the report.

What is Privia Health’s 52-week high and low?

Privia Health’s 52-week high is $28.82 and its 52-week low is $18.92; it closed at $21.45 on Oct 12, 2026, −11.4% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $44.64 on Aug 24, 2022.

Is Privia Health stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 1 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (fair value), 3 as mixed (trend, gekkoindex and seasonality) and 1 as a headwind (earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

Built and overseen by Jared Mann

Founder of Gekko.app. Jared has traded stocks and ETFs for more than 20 years and has a financial industry background.

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