NASDAQ: ADBE

Adobe (ADBE) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Nov 4 close

$248.48+2.34 (+1.0%)

Gekko Brief

AI summaryNov 4 close

Adobe shares rise this week even after Citigroup downgraded the stock to Sell amid ongoing concerns about its growth outlook, as investors also weigh upcoming quarterly results. On the product side, Adobe integrated its CX Enterprise Coworker agentic tool into AI platforms from Anthropic, Google, Microsoft and OpenAI, and is bringing licensed music from Universal Music Group and Warner Music Group into its free Premiere mobile app. Separate data from Adobe showed AI-referred retail traffic generating 83% more revenue per visit and converting at a 90% higher rate than non-AI visitors in September 2026.

Adobe (ADBE) closed at $248.48, up 1%, sitting between its 50-day average of $252.78 and 200-day average of $249.71. The GekkoIndex reading stands at 57.7, placing the stock in the Neutral zone. Price remains 16.3% below Gekko Fair Value of $296.72, a gap that bears watching.

Over the next 20 trading days, Adobe's next earnings date falls on 9 December 2026, outside this typical holding window. In the last 90 days, Congress recorded 1 buy and 0 sells, while the last 30 days show 1 unusual options signal, with call premium of $25.1 million against put premium of $2.2 million. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 4.1% return over 5 years, rising in 3 of them. Analyst views remain split, with 25 firms covering the stock across buy, hold and sell ratings and a consensus target of $268.3.

Written by AI from the Nov 4, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

Adobe price vs fair value

$296.72$248.48Nov ’25May ’26Nov ’26
Close $248.48200-day averageGekko Fair Value $296.72

Adobe quick facts

Market cap
$96.71B
P/E ratio
14
Forward P/E
9.1
EPS, TTM
$17.91
Revenue, TTM
$25.97B
Profit margin
28.1%
Dividend yield
—
Beta
1.38
Volume
4.37M avg 4.11M
1-year return
−26.4%
Typical daily move
±3.8%
Typical 20-day move
±7.4%
50-day average
$252.78
200-day average
$249.71
Next earnings
Dec 9 after close
Shares outstanding
389.2M
52-week range
$190.12$362.71

Adobe swing-trade checklist

Adobe scores 4 supportive, 2 mixed and 0 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

4 supportive2 mixed0 headwinds

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $248.48 sits between the 50-day ($252.78) and 200-day ($249.71) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexmixed

    57.7, Neutral

    Reading 57.7 is in the Neutral zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    16.3% below

    Price is 16.3% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneysupportive

    Leans bullish

    Last 90 days: Congress 1 buy / 0 sales. Last 30 days: 1 unusual options signal.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 34 days

    Next report Dec 9, 2026, 34 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +4.1% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +4.1% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Adobe stock chart and price history

Adobe closed at $248.48 on Nov 4, 2026, −26.4% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $190.12 to $362.71.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Adobe share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$200$300$350DecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct248.48

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
+4.4%
3 months
−4.5%
6 months
−0.7%
1 year
−26.4%
The full ADBE chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open ADBE in Gekko

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About Adobe

Adobe makes software for creating and managing digital content, serving customers that range from individual creatives to large enterprises. It is best known for Creative Cloud, a subscription package of creative tools, alongside its Document Cloud offering built for handling documents online.

The business runs across three areas. One focuses on tools for producing and sharing creative and document content, used by professionals, marketers, educators and everyday consumers. Another builds applications that help brands manage and measure customer interactions, aimed at marketing and advertising teams, agencies, data specialists and executives. A third covers more specialized products, including e-learning, technical documentation, web conferencing, printing technology and an advertising platform. Adobe reaches enterprise customers through direct sales staff and regional offices, sells to individuals through app stores and its own website, and also distributes through resellers, integrators, retailers and other partners.

Founded in 1982 under the name Adobe Systems Incorporated before adopting its current name in 2018, Adobe is headquartered in San Jose, California. Its shares trade on the NASDAQ under the ticker ADBE.

Listed
NASDAQ
Sector
Technology services
Industry
Packaged software
Website
adobe.com

Adobe GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Adobe’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 57.7, in the Neutral zone, up 0.6 points over five sessions.

010057.7Neutral

Up 0.6 points over five sessions.

Reading for Nov 4, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying64+1.1%+1.9%+1.8%+3.9%
Accumulation342−0.2%−0.4%−0.3%−3.6%
Neutral (current zone)275−1.2%−2.6%−5.3%−9.7%
Distribution15−0.1%+1.6%−2.5%−3.0%
Selling1Too few readings yet

Average ADBE share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.0% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the ADBE price, zone by zone.Track ADBE in Gekko

Is Adobe stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Adobe trades 16.3% below Gekko Fair Value of $296.72, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Adobe shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$296.72

Gekko Fair Value, Nov 4, 2026

16.3% Undervalued

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 0.3% above the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$297$246Aug 2026SepOctNov 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open ADBE in Gekko

Adobe insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Adobe, and members of Congress disclosed 1 purchase and 0 sales, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for ADBE in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every ADBE insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open ADBE in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

1trade disclosed: 1 purchase and 0 sales.

MemberTypeAmountDisclosed
Ro Khanna
House, CA, purchase
Purchase$1,001 - $15,000Sep 7
traded Aug 10

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Buybacks

Adobe has been buying back its own shares.

Latest authorization
$25.00B, Apr 21, 2026
Bought back, quarter ended Aug 28, 2026
$2.23B
As a share of market cap
2.31%
Trailing four quarters
$9.30B

From company filings.

Unusual options activity last 30 days

1signal, 92% of the flagged premium in calls.

Latest: Bullish flow on Oct 16, $27.30M in unusual premium.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30

2of the funds Gekko tracks hold ADBE.

1added1opened0trimmed0sold out
Every signal with its contract, strike and premium, and which funds are on each side.Unlock in Gekko

Adobe earnings: next date and track record

Adobe reports on Dec 9, 2026, after the close (34 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports.

8 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±7%average move across the report
1 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−13.2%Dec ’24−12.9%Mar ’25−5.1%Jun ’25−0.2%Sep ’25+1.8%Dec ’25−8.9%Mar ’26−12.6%Jun ’26−1.0%Sep ’26

Last earnings call, Sep 10, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Adobe reported Q3 FY26 revenue of $6.76 billion, up 12% YoY, with GAAP EPS of $4.62 (+11% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $6.13 (+15% YoY). Monthly active users exceeded 1 billion, growing 20%+ YoY, with creative premium MAUs crossing 100 million (+70% YoY). AI-first ARR surpassed $650 million, growing 150%+ YoY. Adobe announced CEO transition with Anil Chakravarthy succeeding Shantanu Narayen effective December 1st.
Guidance
Management did not provide explicit forward-looking financial targets in this excerpt. Leadership expressed confidence in capitalizing on AI opportunities across creativity, productivity, and customer experiences, with Chakravarthy positioning Adobe for growth in the agentic AI era.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Sep 10, 2026$6.13
est $6.08
+0.8%$6.76B
est $6.69B
+1.0%−1.0%
Jun 11, 2026$5.96
est $5.81
+2.6%$6.62B
est $6.45B
+2.5%−12.6%
Mar 12, 2026$6.06
est $5.87
+3.2%$6.40B
est $6.28B
+1.9%−8.9%
Dec 10, 2025$5.50
est $5.40
+1.9%$6.19B
est $6.11B
+1.4%+1.8%
Sep 11, 2025$5.31
est $5.18
+2.5%$5.99B
est $5.92B
+1.2%−0.2%
Jun 12, 2025$5.06
est $4.97
+1.8%$5.87B
est $5.80B
+1.3%−5.1%
Mar 12, 2025$5.08
est $4.97
+2.2%$5.71B
est $5.66B
+0.9%−12.9%
Dec 11, 2024$4.81
est $4.66
+3.2%$5.61B
est $5.54B
+1.2%−13.2%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Adobe stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Adobe is $268.30, +8.0% from the last close, from 25 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$268.30consensus 12-month target, +8.0% from the last close
Low $195High $373
Buy5
Hold14
Sell6

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 25 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Nov 4CitiSell, downgraded$207−16.7%
Oct 13Wells FargoSell, downgraded$225−9.4%
Oct 13HSBCHold, downgraded$267+7.5%
Oct 12Wells FargoSell, downgraded$225−9.4%
Oct 6CitiHold, maintained$250+0.6%
−5.3%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+4.1%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.8%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Adobe seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Nov 4, Adobe averaged +4.1% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

−8.5%2021+16.9%2022+6.5%2023+7.3%2024−2.6%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+5.0%3 of 5
Next 10 trading days+4.6%3 of 5
Next 15 trading days+5.3%3 of 5
Next 20 trading days+4.1%3 of 5
Next 30 trading days+0.9%3 of 5

For scale, ADBE’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 7.4%.

Adobe market cap and key statistics

Adobe’s market cap is $96.71B, with a P/E ratio of 14 and revenue of $25.97B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$96.71B
P/E ratio
14
Forward P/E
9.1
EPS, TTM
$17.91
Gekko Fair Value
$296.72

Trading

Volume
4.37M
Avg volume, 20 days
4.11M
52-week high
$362.71
52-week low
$190.12
Shares outstanding
389.2M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$25.97B
Profit margin
28.1%
Return on equity
61.9%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+10.5%

Risk and income

Beta
1.38
Typical daily move
±3.8%
Typical 20-day move
±7.4%

Adobe peers

Adobe’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
MSFTMicrosoft+2.2%Neutral17.8% above
PLTRPalantir Technologies+4.1%Accumulation4.7% below
ORCLOracle+1.6%Accumulation29.7% below
PANWPalo Alto Networks+0.2%Accumulation7.4% above
CRWDCrowdStrike−0.7%Neutral8.1% above
CRMSalesforce−0.8%Accumulation9.3% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

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Adobe stock FAQ

What is Adobe’s market cap?

Adobe’s market cap is $96.71B at the Nov 4, 2026 close of $248.48, with 389.2M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 14.

What is the Adobe stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Adobe is $268.30, +8.0% from the last close. Of the 25 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 5 rate it a buy, 14 a hold and 6 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Adobe stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Adobe is undervalued: the Nov 4, 2026 close of $248.48 is 16.3% below Gekko Fair Value of $296.72. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Adobe report earnings next?

Adobe is expected to report on Dec 9, 2026, after the market closes (34 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $6.32 per share on revenue of $6.83B. Adobe beat the earnings estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports, moving 7% on average across the report.

What is Adobe’s 52-week high and low?

Adobe’s 52-week high is $362.71 and its 52-week low is $190.12; it closed at $248.48 on Nov 4, 2026, −26.4% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $699.54 on Nov 22, 2021.

Is Adobe stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 4 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (fair value, smart money, earnings risk and seasonality), 2 as mixed (trend and gekkoindex). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

Is there unusual options activity in Adobe?

Gekko flagged 1 unusual options signal in Adobe over the last 30 days, with $25.09M of flagged premium in calls and $2.21M in puts. The latest, bullish flow, was on Oct 16, 2026 with $27.30M in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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