NASDAQ: TROW

T. Rowe Price (TROW) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$103.81−1.70 (−1.6%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

This week's news centers on analyst activity around T. Rowe Price following its Q2 2026 results. Evercore ISI raised its price target on TROW to $121 from $113 while maintaining an In Line rating, and Morgan Stanley cut its target to $110 from $116 while keeping an Equalweight rating, citing a choppy market limiting upside despite a modest increase in Q3 EPS estimates across asset manager coverage. Coverage also referenced the prior quarter's results, with adjusted EPS of $2.57 beating the $2.52 estimate and revenue of $1.91 billion up 10.7% year over year, alongside a separate report on climate modeling work tied to a $165 billion emerging-markets portfolio.

TROW closed at $103.81, down 1.6%, sitting between its 50-day average of $111.02 and 200-day average of $103.87. The GekkoIndex reads 64.9, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone, though the index has slipped 4.5 points over the past five sessions. Price sits 6.1% below Gekko Fair Value of $110.51.

The next earnings date is 30 October 2026, before the open, 31 days out and beyond a typical 20-day holding window. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the current windows. Seasonality over the next 20 trading days has averaged -2.5% across 5 years, rising in 3 of them, which is worth noting alongside the current 11-firm analyst mix of 7 hold and 4 sell ratings, with a consensus target of $109.33.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

T. Rowe Price price vs fair value

$110.51$103.81Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $103.81200-day averageGekko Fair Value $110.51

T. Rowe Price quick facts

Market cap
$22.24B
P/E ratio
10.5
Forward P/E
10.2
EPS, TTM
$9.93
Revenue, TTM
$7.59B
Profit margin
29.3%
Dividend yield
4.92%
Beta
1.48
Volume
1.38M avg 1.51M
1-year return
+0.6%
Typical daily move
±2.1%
Typical 20-day move
±5.5%
50-day average
$111.02
200-day average
$103.87
Next earnings
Oct 30 before open
Shares outstanding
213.3M
52-week range
$85.22$122.00

T. Rowe Price swing-trade checklist

T. Rowe Price scores 3 supportive, 2 mixed and 0 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive2 mixed0 headwinds

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $103.81 sits between the 50-day ($111.02) and 200-day ($103.87) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    64.9, Accumulation

    Reading 64.9 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    6.1% below

    Price is 6.1% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 31 days

    Next report Oct 30, 2026, 31 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitymixed

    −2.5% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −2.5% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

T. Rowe Price stock chart and price history

T. Rowe Price closed at $103.81 on Sep 28, 2026, +0.6% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $85.22 to $122.00.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
T. Rowe Price share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$90$100$110$120NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep103.81

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−7.6%
3 months
−9.2%
6 months
+17.4%
1 year
+0.6%
The full TROW chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open TROW in Gekko

Follow T. Rowe Price through every session

Put TROW on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

Track TROW in GekkoFree for 7 days. No credit card required.

About T. Rowe Price

T. Rowe Price provides investment management services to a broad client base that includes individual investors, institutional organizations, retirement plans, and financial intermediaries. It builds and manages mutual funds covering both equities and fixed income, with activity spanning public stock and bond markets around the world. The firm is recognized for combining fundamental and quantitative research, drawing on both internal analysis and outside sources to guide its investment choices.

Its approach places weight on environmental, social, and governance considerations as part of a broader commitment to socially responsible investing. Beyond traditional fund management, T. Rowe Price also takes part in late-stage venture capital deals, generally putting in between three and five million dollars per investment. The company has previously operated under the names T. Rowe Group, Inc. and T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc.

T. Rowe Price was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland. Its shares trade on the NASDAQ under the ticker TROW.

Listed
NASDAQ
Sector
Finance
Industry
Investment managers
Website
troweprice.com

T. Rowe Price GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

T. Rowe Price’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 64.9, in the Accumulation zone, down 4.5 points over five sessions.

010064.9Accumulation

Down 4.5 points over five sessions.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying39+0.7%+1.3%−1.3%+4.5%
Accumulation (current zone)206−0.5%−0.7%−0.1%+2.1%
Neutral393+0.2%+0.3%+0.3%−0.9%
Distribution32+0.1%+0.1%+1.2%+3.0%
Selling2Too few readings yet

Average TROW share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the TROW price, zone by zone.Track TROW in Gekko

Is T. Rowe Price stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

T. Rowe Price trades 6.1% below Gekko Fair Value of $110.51, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what T. Rowe Price shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$110.51

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026

6.1% Undervalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open TROW in Gekko

T. Rowe Price insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for T. Rowe Price, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for TROW in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every TROW insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open TROW in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in TROW were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for TROW, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open TROW in Gekko

Buybacks

T. Rowe Price has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$333.5M
As a share of market cap
1.50%
Trailing four quarters
$959.6M

From company filings.

T. Rowe Price earnings: next date and track record

T. Rowe Price reports on Oct 30, 2026, before the open (31 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.

6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±4.1%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+2.4%Nov ’24−3.6%Feb ’25+3.8%May ’25+4.4%Aug ’25−0.4%Oct ’25−10.4%Feb ’26+2.9%Apr ’26−4.8%Jul ’26

Last earnings call, Jul 31, 2026 AI summary

What they said
T. Rowe Price reported Q2 2026 results with adjusted diluted EPS of $2.57 (up from $2.52 in Q1 and $2.24 a year ago) and ended the quarter with $1.9 trillion in AUM and $6.5 billion of net outflows. Management highlighted a market rebound in Q2, positive flows in May and June (including a large DC win and sub-advisory wins), $4.4 billion of ETF inflows, and $16 billion of net inflows year-to-date into integrated active strategies (~$200B AUM). Investment performance was generally strong on long-term horizons (particularly 10-year and fixed income), though nearer-term active equity performance and flows remain under pressure. Management emphasized strategic priorities: investing in integrated active and ETF capabilities, scaling SMAs and active ETFs, growing fixed income and alternatives (including partnerships such as with Goldman Sachs), expense management including productivity/AI initiatives, and exploration of digital assets and tokenization. They expect the second half of 2026 to be more challenging for net flows due to continued active equity outflows, seasonality/rebalancing, and an air pocket in late-stage target date pipeline, while still anticipating 2026 could be a record year for gross flows. Expense guidance reiterated a focus on low single-digit controllable expense growth and a broader 2026 expense growth range tied to variable items.
Guidance
Management reiterated expense guidance: controllable expense growth in the low single-digits (focused on 2026 and 2027) and a broader 2026 guide range tied to variability of certain expense items (they referenced a guide of ~4%-7% for 2026). They also gave forward qualitative guidance: expect the second half of 2026 to be more challenging for net flows but anticipate strong gross flows for 2026 (potentially a record year) and continued momentum in ETFs, fixed income, alternatives, and integrated active strategies. No specific revenue, EPS, or AUM numeric targets were provided beyond these qualitative and expense-range comments.
Risks flagged
Key risks discussed include continued pressure and net outflows in active equity (especially open-ended mutual funds), fee compression due to migration to lower-fee vehicles (ETFs, SMAs, blended/hybrid retirement), seasonality and portfolio rebalancing that could reduce flows in H2, a late-stage target date pipeline air pocket that may slow TDF inflows, volatility in market levels affecting expense guide and revenue, and execution risks in scaling newer businesses (ETFs, SMAs, alternatives, digital assets).
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Jul 31, 2026$2.57
est $2.52
+2.0%$1.91B
est $1.89B
+0.7%−4.8%
Apr 30, 2026$2.52
est $2.35
+7.2%$1.86B
est $1.85B
+0.1%+2.9%
Feb 4, 2026$2.44
est $2.46
−0.8%$1.93B
est $1.93B
+0.3%−10.4%
Oct 31, 2025$2.81
est $2.54
+10.6%$1.89B
est $1.88B
+0.6%−0.4%
Aug 1, 2025$2.24
est $2.15
+4.2%$1.72B
est $1.73B
−0.3%+4.4%
May 2, 2025$2.23
est $2.13
+4.7%$1.76B
est $1.78B
−1.1%+3.8%
Feb 5, 2025$1.92
est $2.24
−14.3%$1.82B
est $1.87B
−2.3%−3.6%
Nov 1, 2024$2.57
est $2.35
+9.4%$1.79B
est $1.84B
−3.2%+2.4%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

T. Rowe Price stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for T. Rowe Price is $109.33, +5.3% from the last close, from 11 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$109.33consensus 12-month target, +5.3% from the last close
Low $90High $124
Buy0
Hold7
Sell4

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 11 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 25Morgan StanleyHold, reiterated$116+11.7%
Sep 25Morgan StanleyHold, maintained$116+11.7%
Aug 31TD CowenHold, maintained$110+6.0%
Aug 21JefferiesHold, maintained$124+19.4%
Aug 10Evercore ISIHold, reiterated$118+13.7%
−0.1%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
−2.5%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.1%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

T. Rowe Price seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, T. Rowe Price averaged −2.5% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+0.9%2021−0.7%2022−15.7%2023+3.2%2024+1.3%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days−0.4%2 of 5
Next 10 trading days−2.6%1 of 5
Next 15 trading days−1.5%3 of 5
Next 20 trading days−2.5%3 of 5
Next 30 trading days+3.4%3 of 5

For scale, TROW’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 5.5%.

T. Rowe Price market cap and key statistics

T. Rowe Price’s market cap is $22.24B, with a P/E ratio of 10.5 and revenue of $7.59B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$22.24B
P/E ratio
10.5
Forward P/E
10.2
EPS, TTM
$9.93
Gekko Fair Value
$110.51

Trading

Volume
1.38M
Avg volume, 20 days
1.51M
52-week high
$122.00
52-week low
$85.22
Shares outstanding
213.3M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$7.59B
Profit margin
29.3%
Return on equity
19.4%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+28.6%

Risk and income

Beta
1.48
Typical daily move
±2.1%
Typical 20-day move
±5.5%
Dividend yield
4.92%

T. Rowe Price peers

T. Rowe Price’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
MSMorgan Stanley−1.1%Accumulation12.7% below
BLKBlackRock−0.5%Accumulation10.3% below
UBSUBS−0.8%Accumulation9.5% below
BXBlackstone−2.1%Buying16.8% below
KKRKKR−2.2%Accumulation18.1% below
BNBrookfield−1.2%Buying21.8% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

T. Rowe Price stock FAQ

What is T. Rowe Price’s market cap?

T. Rowe Price’s market cap is $22.24B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $103.81, with 213.3M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 10.5.

What is the T. Rowe Price stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for T. Rowe Price is $109.33, +5.3% from the last close. Of the 11 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 0 rate it a buy, 7 a hold and 4 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is T. Rowe Price stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate T. Rowe Price is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $103.81 is 6.1% below Gekko Fair Value of $110.51. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does T. Rowe Price report earnings next?

T. Rowe Price is expected to report on Oct 30, 2026, before the market opens (31 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $2.67 per share on revenue of $1.98B. T. Rowe Price beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 4.1% on average across the report.

What is T. Rowe Price’s 52-week high and low?

T. Rowe Price’s 52-week high is $122.00 and its 52-week low is $85.22; it closed at $103.81 on Sep 28, 2026, +0.6% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $223.36 on Nov 5, 2021.

Is T. Rowe Price stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and earnings risk), 2 as mixed (trend and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

See T. Rowe Price the way Gekko members do

Every GekkoIndex reading, insider trade, options bet and Congress disclosure plotted on the chart, plus the 5,800-name screener and trade planning tools.

Join 1,380 other traders using Gekko

Start Your FREE 7 Day Trial → Every feature unlocked. No credit card required.