NASDAQ: NTRS

Northern Trust (NTRS) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Nov 4 close

$178.02+5.42 (+3.1%)

Gekko Brief

AI summaryNov 4 close

Northern Trust shares have been buoyed this week by renewed attention to capital returns, with coverage questioning whether the stock remains undervalued following a recently approved $3.5 billion share repurchase plan. The company also outperformed peers during a strong trading session, extending a string of gains. Separate commentary on Northern Trust's institutional investor Universe data for the third quarter of 2026 noted mixed returns across plan types, with the report stating no direct financial impact on the company itself. Alongside this, a director purchase and several Form 8.3 filings tied to Prologis and SEGRO holdings appeared in the background.

The stock closed at $178.02, up 3.1%, sitting above both its 50-day ($174.80) and 200-day ($165.89) moving averages, with the shorter average above the longer one. The GekkoIndex reads 51.9, placing it in the Neutral zone, down 5.2 over the past five readings. Price sits just 0.2% above Gekko Fair Value of $177.65, leaving little gap between the two.

Northern Trust's next earnings report is scheduled for 21 January 2027, 77 days out, placing it outside the typical 20-trading-day holding window. No insider, Congress or unusual options activity appears in the current windows. Seasonality data shows the next 20 trading days have averaged a 5.4% return over five years, rising in 4 of those years, a pattern worth noting alongside the stock's typical 20-day move of 5.4%.

Written by AI from the Nov 4, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

Northern Trust price vs fair value

$178.02$177.65Nov ’25May ’26Nov ’26
Close $178.02200-day averageGekko Fair Value $177.65

Northern Trust quick facts

Market cap
$32.24B
P/E ratio
13.4
Forward P/E
13.1
EPS, TTM
$12.75
Revenue, TTM
$9.33B
Profit margin
26%
Dividend yield
1.94%
Beta
1.21
Volume
997,563 avg 1.30M
1-year return
+39.4%
Typical daily move
±2.2%
Typical 20-day move
±5.4%
50-day average
$174.80
200-day average
$165.89
Next earnings
Jan 21
Shares outstanding
181.1M
52-week range
$121.53$195.78

Northern Trust swing-trade checklist

Northern Trust scores 3 supportive, 2 mixed and 0 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive2 mixed0 headwinds

  • Trendsupportive

    Above 50 and 200-day

    Close $178.02 is above the 50-day ($174.80) and 200-day ($165.89) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexmixed

    51.9, Neutral

    Reading 51.9 is in the Neutral zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuemixed

    0.2% above

    Price is within 5% of Gekko Fair Value (0.2% above).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 77 days

    Next report Jan 21, 2027, 77 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +5.4% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +5.4% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Northern Trust stock chart and price history

Northern Trust closed at $178.02 on Nov 4, 2026, +39.4% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $121.53 to $195.78.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Northern Trust share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$120$140$160DecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct178.02

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
+5.1%
3 months
−3.3%
6 months
+9.0%
1 year
+39.4%
The full NTRS chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open NTRS in Gekko

Follow Northern Trust through every session

Put NTRS on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

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About Northern Trust

Northern Trust works with clients worldwide on managing wealth, servicing assets, running investment strategies, and handling banking needs. Customers range from large corporations and institutions to families and individual investors, and the firm has built its name on pairing behind-the-scenes custody and administrative work with more hands-on financial guidance for wealthy clients.

The business is split into two main areas. One side, focused on institutions, supports pension plans, public retirement systems, charitable foundations, endowments, investment managers, insurers, and sovereign funds with services such as custody, fund administration, outsourced investment operations, securities lending, currency exchange, treasury and cash management, brokerage, and transition support. The other side caters to high-net-worth individuals, families, business owners, executives, and privately owned companies, offering trust and estate administration, investment management, philanthropic and financial planning advice, family business guidance, and private banking. Beyond these two areas, Northern Trust also builds and manages investment portfolios across stocks, bonds, cash, and alternative assets like private equity and hedge funds, offered through accounts, pooled funds, and exchange-traded products, along with tools for managing portfolio risk.

Founded in 1889 and headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, Northern Trust trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker NTRS.

Listed
NASDAQ
Sector
Finance
Industry
Investment managers
Website
northerntrust.com

Northern Trust GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Northern Trust’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 51.9, in the Neutral zone, down 5.2 points over five sessions.

010051.9Neutral

Down 5.2 points over five sessions.

Reading for Nov 4, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying24+0.3%+0.1%+0.7%+10.4%
Accumulation168+0.1%+0.6%+3.6%+11.1%
Neutral (current zone)453+0.8%+1.4%+2.0%+5.1%
Distribution49+1.0%+1.2%+3.5%+5.9%
Selling3Too few readings yet

Average NTRS share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.0% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the NTRS price, zone by zone.Track NTRS in Gekko

Is Northern Trust stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Northern Trust trades 0.2% above Gekko Fair Value of $177.65, so the shares are about fair value on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Northern Trust shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$177.65

Gekko Fair Value, Nov 4, 2026

0.2% above fair value · About fair value

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 0.9% above the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$178$173Aug 2026SepOctNov 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open NTRS in Gekko

Northern Trust insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Northern Trust, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for NTRS in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every NTRS insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open NTRS in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in NTRS were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for NTRS, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open NTRS in Gekko

Buybacks

Northern Trust has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026
$352.3M
As a share of market cap
1.09%
Trailing four quarters
$1.43B

From company filings.

Northern Trust earnings: next date and track record

Northern Trust reports on Jan 21, 2027 (77 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports.

8 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±3.8%average move across the report
5 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−3.0%Apr ’24−5.0%Jul ’24+7.3%Oct ’24+3.3%Jan ’25+4.4%Apr ’25+1.8%Jul ’25−2.9%Oct ’25+2.9%Jan ’26

Last earnings call, Jan 22, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Northern Trust Q4 2025 showed trust fees up 7% YoY, net interest income up 14%, and total revenue up 9% (ex-notables). Full-year pretax margin reached 30%, ROE 14.8%, and EPS grew 17% excluding notables. The company returned $1.9B to shareholders including a record $1.3B in buybacks. Strategic initiatives include AI deployment via NT Byron platform, GFO record new business, and operational restructuring delivering 4%+ expense base productivity savings.
Guidance
For 2026, Northern Trust plans to raise productivity savings targets by 10% through expanded AI deployment, structural improvements, and workforce optimization. Management highlighted strong momentum entering 2026 with continued investment in growth and resiliency initiatives.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Jan 22, 2026$2.69
est $2.37
+13.5%$2.14B
est $2.06B
+3.8%+2.9%
Oct 22, 2025$2.29
est $2.26
+1.3%$3.58B
est $2.03B
+76.5%−2.9%
Jul 23, 2025$2.13
est $2.06
+3.4%$3.60B
est $1.97B
+83.2%+1.8%
Apr 22, 2025$1.90
est $1.85
+2.7%$3.51B
est $1.95B
+79.9%+4.4%
Jan 23, 2025$2.26
est $1.96
+15.3%$1.96B
est $1.92B
+1.9%+3.3%
Oct 23, 2024$2.01
est $1.74
+15.5%$1.41B
est $1.93B
−27.0%+7.3%
Jul 17, 2024$1.78
est $1.75
+1.7%$4.61B
est $1.84B
+150.1%−5.0%
Apr 16, 2024$1.70
est $1.45
+17.2%$3.56B
est $1.78B
+99.9%−3.0%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Northern Trust stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Northern Trust is $181.68, +2.1% from the last close, from 12 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$181.68consensus 12-month target, +2.1% from the last close
Low $170High $194
Buy2
Hold8
Sell2

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 12 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Oct 30J.P. MorganHold, reiterated$191.50+7.6%
Oct 30BarclaysHold, maintained$194+9.0%
Oct 25BMO CapitalBuy, maintained$190+6.7%
Oct 23CitiHold, maintained$170−4.5%
Oct 22BarclaysHold, maintained$194+9.0%
+2.0%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+5.4%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.2%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Northern Trust seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Nov 4, Northern Trust averaged +5.4% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

−4.8%2021+5.9%2022+14.8%2023+9.1%2024+3.6%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+4.2%4 of 5
Next 10 trading days+4.1%3 of 5
Next 15 trading days+4.8%4 of 5
Next 20 trading days+5.4%4 of 5
Next 30 trading days+6.3%4 of 5

For scale, NTRS’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 5.4%.

Northern Trust market cap and key statistics

Northern Trust’s market cap is $32.24B, with a P/E ratio of 13.4 and revenue of $9.33B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$32.24B
P/E ratio
13.4
Forward P/E
13.1
EPS, TTM
$12.75
Gekko Fair Value
$177.65

Trading

Volume
997,563
Avg volume, 20 days
1.30M
52-week high
$195.78
52-week low
$121.53
Shares outstanding
181.1M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$9.33B
Profit margin
26%
Return on equity
18.4%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+48.5%

Risk and income

Beta
1.21
Typical daily move
±2.2%
Typical 20-day move
±5.4%
Dividend yield
1.94%

Northern Trust peers

Northern Trust’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
MSMorgan Stanley+2.1%Neutral4.3% below
BLKBlackRock+3.1%Neutral1.5% above
UBSUBS+0.9%Neutral2.7% below
BXBlackstone+3.4%Neutral2.3% below
BNBrookfield+3.4%Distribution3.0% below
KKRKKR+2.6%Neutral4.6% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

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Northern Trust stock FAQ

What is Northern Trust’s market cap?

Northern Trust’s market cap is $32.24B at the Nov 4, 2026 close of $178.02, with 181.1M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 13.4.

What is the Northern Trust stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Northern Trust is $181.68, +2.1% from the last close. Of the 12 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 2 rate it a buy, 8 a hold and 2 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Northern Trust stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Northern Trust is about fair value: the Nov 4, 2026 close of $178.02 is 0.2% above Gekko Fair Value of $177.65. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Northern Trust report earnings next?

Northern Trust is expected to report on Jan 21, 2027 (77 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $3.06 per share on revenue of $2.29B. Northern Trust beat the earnings estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports, moving 3.8% on average across the report.

What is Northern Trust’s 52-week high and low?

Northern Trust’s 52-week high is $195.78 and its 52-week low is $121.53; it closed at $178.02 on Nov 4, 2026, +39.4% over the past year.

Is Northern Trust stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (trend, earnings risk and seasonality), 2 as mixed (gekkoindex and fair value). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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