Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for GBDC in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every GBDC insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open GBDC in Gekko
NASDAQ: GBDC
Golub Capital BDC (GBDC) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$12.11+0.01 (+0.1%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryOct 12 closeThis week's news centers on Golub Capital BDC's scheduled release of fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter and full-year results, set for 17 November 2026 after market close, with an earnings call the following day. Coverage also points to institutional flow and behavioral pattern analysis around GBDC, describing a weak near-term sentiment alongside a characterization of the setup as favorable. One report noted the stock declined 1.28% to $12.38 around the time the results date was confirmed, with commentary framing the date as important for assessing portfolio credit quality and dividend coverage.
GBDC closed at $12.11, up 0.1%, sitting below both its 50-day average of $12.79 and its 200-day average of $12.91, with the 50-day also below the 200-day. The stock's one-month return stands at -5.3%, its three-month at -7%, and its one-year at -10.2%, within a 52-week range of $11.77 to $14.41. The GekkoIndex reads 66.6, placing it in the Accumulation zone. Gekko Fair Value is set at $13.13, putting the current price 7.8% below that level.
The next earnings date falls on 17 November 2026, 35 days out, which sits outside a typical 20-trading-day holding window. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in their respective windows. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 2.1% return over 5 years, rising in 4 of those years. Consensus among 4 covering firms stands at buy ratings across the board, with a consensus target of $13.62, representing 12.5% upside from current levels.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Golub Capital BDC price vs fair value
Close $12.11200-day averageGekko Fair Value $13.13
Golub Capital BDC quick facts
- Market cap
- $3.15B
- P/E ratio
- 18.5
- Forward P/E
- 9.8
- EPS, TTM
- $0.66
- Revenue, TTM
- $800.7M
- Profit margin
- 21.4%
- Dividend yield
- 12.00%
- Beta
- 0.44
- Volume
- 881,346 avg 1.62M
- 1-year return
- −10.2%
- Typical daily move
- ±1.8%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±3%
- 50-day average
- $12.79
- 200-day average
- $12.91
- Next earnings
- Nov 17
- Shares outstanding
- 259.7M
Golub Capital BDC swing-trade checklist
Golub Capital BDC scores 4 supportive, 0 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
4 supportive0 mixed1 headwind
- Trendheadwind
Below 50 and 200-day
Close $12.11 is below the 50-day ($12.79) and 200-day ($12.91) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
66.6, Accumulation
Reading 66.6 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
7.8% below
Price is 7.8% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 36 days
Next report Nov 17, 2026, 36 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+2.1% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +2.1% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Golub Capital BDC stock chart and price history
Golub Capital BDC closed at $12.11 on Oct 12, 2026, −10.2% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $11.77 to $14.41.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −5.3%
- 3 months
- −7.0%
- 6 months
- −4.9%
- 1 year
- −10.2%
The full GBDC chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open GBDC in Gekko
Follow Golub Capital BDC through every session
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Golub Capital BDC GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Golub Capital BDC’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 66.6, in the Accumulation zone, down 0.2 points over five sessions.
66.6Accumulation
Down 0.2 points over five sessions.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 58 | +0.3% | +1.0% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 219 | +0.1% | −0.4% | ||
| Neutral | 388 | −0.3% | −0.9% | ||
| Distribution | 11 | −1.3% | +1.9% | ||
| Selling | 6 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average GBDC share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the GBDC price, zone by zone.Track GBDC in Gekko
Is Golub Capital BDC stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Golub Capital BDC trades 7.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $13.13, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Golub Capital BDC shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$13.13
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026
7.8% Undervalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 1.7% below the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open GBDC in Gekko
Golub Capital BDC insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Golub Capital BDC, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in GBDC were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for GBDC, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open GBDC in Gekko
Buybacks
Golub Capital BDC has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $29.42M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.93%
- Trailing four quarters
- $147.3M
From company filings.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
0of the funds Gekko tracks hold GBDC.
0added0opened0trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
Golub Capital BDC earnings: next date and track record
Golub Capital BDC reports on Nov 17, 2026 (36 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 3 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 17, 2026
36 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.33
- Revenue estimate
- $187.5M
3 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±1.6%average move across the report
1 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Feb 4, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- GBDC reported adjusted NII of $0.38 per share (10.2% ROE) and adjusted net income of $0.25 per share (6.7% ROE) for Q4 2025. The company faced headwinds from lower base rates, tighter spreads, muted M&A activity, and credit stress. Credit performance remained solid with 89% of portfolio in highest rating categories and only 0.8% on nonaccrual status. The Board reduced the quarterly dividend to $0.33 per share from $0.39.
- Guidance
- Management expects industry headwinds to continue and is planning for a challenging 2026. The company will maintain its quarterly variable supplemental dividend policy alongside the reduced base dividend of $0.33 per share.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | $0.25 est $0.38 | $207.0M est $209.8M | −3.2% |
| Nov 17, 2025 | $0.38 est $0.38 | $184.4M est $221.7M | −2.2% |
| Aug 4, 2025 | $0.39 est $0.38 | $218.7M est $221.0M | +0.5% |
| May 5, 2025 | $0.39 est $0.41 | $154.1M est $223.0M | −1.0% |
| Feb 4, 2025 | $0.37 est $0.43 | $118.8M est $223.8M | −2.7% |
| Nov 19, 2024 | $0.45 est $0.44 | $224.4M est $234.0M | −1.9% |
| Aug 5, 2024 | $0.05 est $0.49 | $171.3M est $234.4M | −0.8% |
| May 6, 2024 | $0.55 est $0.51 | $164.2M est $162.4M | −0.4% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Golub Capital BDC stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Golub Capital BDC is $13.62, +12.5% from the last close, from 4 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$13.62consensus 12-month target, +12.5% from the last close
Now $12.11Avg $13.62
Low $13High $14
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 4 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26 | Wells Fargo | $13 | +7.3% |
| Aug 10 | Bank of America Securities | $13.75 | +13.5% |
| Aug 5 | KBW | $13.50 | +11.5% |
| Aug 5 | Wells Fargo | $13 | +7.3% |
| Aug 4 | RBC Capital | $14 | +15.6% |
−0.4%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+2.1%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±1.8%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Golub Capital BDC seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Golub Capital BDC averaged +2.1% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +2.3% | 5 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +2.2% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +1.7% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +2.1% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +2.1% | 4 of 5 |
For scale, GBDC’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 3%.
Golub Capital BDC market cap and key statistics
Golub Capital BDC’s market cap is $3.15B, with a P/E ratio of 18.5 and revenue of $800.7M over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $3.15B
- P/E ratio
- 18.5
- Forward P/E
- 9.8
- EPS, TTM
- $0.66
- Gekko Fair Value
- $13.13
Trading
- Volume
- 881,346
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 1.62M
- 52-week high
- $14.41
- 52-week low
- $11.77
- Shares outstanding
- 259.7M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $800.7M
- Profit margin
- 21.4%
- Return on equity
- 4.5%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- −35.1%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.44
- Typical daily move
- ±1.8%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±3%
- Dividend yield
- 12.00%
Golub Capital BDC stock news this week
Coverage of Golub Capital BDC this week reads neutral: 0 positive, 5 neutral and 2 negative headlines.
- Behavioral Patterns of GBDC and Institutional FlowsStock Traders Daily, Oct 12
- Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (0IZ6.L) stock price, news, quote and historyYahoo Finance UK, Oct 9
- Golub Capital BDC, Inc. Schedules Release of Fiscal Year 2026 Fourth Quarter ResultsYahoo Finance, Oct 7
- Golub Capital BDC stock fell 1.28 percent as results date was setAD HOC NEWS, Oct 7
- Golub Capital BDC to report Q4FY26 results on November 17, 2026scanx.trade, Oct 6
- Golub Capital BDC Sets November 17 Date for Fiscal 2026 Fourth-Quarter ResultsQuiver Quantitative, Oct 6
Golub Capital BDC peers
Golub Capital BDC’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| MSMorgan Stanley | Accumulation | 11.1% below |
| BLKBlackRock | Neutral | 9.0% below |
| UBSUBS | Accumulation | 10.2% below |
| BXBlackstone | Accumulation | 15.2% below |
| BNBrookfield | Accumulation | 18.9% below |
| KKRKKR | Accumulation | 17.8% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Golub Capital BDC stock FAQ
What is Golub Capital BDC’s market cap?
Golub Capital BDC’s market cap is $3.15B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $12.11, with 259.7M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 18.5.
What is the Golub Capital BDC stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Golub Capital BDC is $13.62, +12.5% from the last close. Of the 4 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 4 rate it a buy, 0 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Golub Capital BDC stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Golub Capital BDC is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $12.11 is 7.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $13.13. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Golub Capital BDC report earnings next?
Golub Capital BDC is expected to report on Nov 17, 2026 (36 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.33 per share on revenue of $187.5M. Golub Capital BDC beat the earnings estimate in 3 of its last 8 reports, moving 1.6% on average across the report.
What is Golub Capital BDC’s 52-week high and low?
Golub Capital BDC’s 52-week high is $14.41 and its 52-week low is $11.77; it closed at $12.11 on Oct 12, 2026, −10.2% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $17.72 on Apr 30, 2024.
Is Golub Capital BDC stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 4 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value, earnings risk and seasonality) and 1 as a headwind (trend). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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