NASDAQ: RUN

Sunrun (RUN) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Oct 12 close

$7.59−0.05 (−0.7%)

Gekko Brief

AI summaryOct 12 close

Sunrun's shares have been pressured this week by a wave of analyst actions following its last earnings report. Wall Street Zen downgraded the stock from Hold to Sell, citing elevated leverage and mixed sentiment despite the company beating quarterly earnings expectations, with EPS of $0.42 against an estimate of $0.23. RBC Capital cut its price target to $11, while maintaining an Outperform rating, and Citigroup lowered its target to $14.00 from $16.00 while keeping a buy rating. Coverage also notes the stock trading near a 52-week low of $7.42, alongside lowered 2026 guidance for subscriber value and cash generation, and ongoing questions about rooftop solar growth amid shifting federal incentive rules.

The stock closed at $7.59, down 0.7%, sitting below both its 50-day average of $8.82 and 200-day average of $13.22, with the shorter average beneath the longer one. The GekkoIndex reads 66.4, placing Sunrun in the Accumulation zone, down 1.5 points over five days. Price sits 33% below the Gekko Fair Value of $11.33.

Earnings are set for 4 November, 22 days out, falling inside a typical 20-day holding window; the prior report saw a 15% reaction despite the beat. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the recent windows. Seasonality over the next 20 trading days has averaged -5.2% across 5 years, rising in 1 of them.

Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

Sunrun price vs fair value

$11.33$7.59Oct ’25Apr ’26Oct ’26
Close $7.59200-day averageGekko Fair Value $11.33

Sunrun quick facts

Market cap
$1.81B
P/E ratio
5.1
Forward P/E
7.9
EPS, TTM
$1.48
Revenue, TTM
$3.48B
Profit margin
11.6%
Dividend yield
—
Beta
2.44
Volume
5.56M avg 7.88M
1-year return
−62.6%
Typical daily move
±4.8%
Typical 20-day move
±15%
50-day average
$8.82
200-day average
$13.22
Next earnings
Nov 4 after close
Shares outstanding
238.5M
52-week range
$7.27$22.44

Sunrun swing-trade checklist

Sunrun scores 2 supportive, 0 mixed and 3 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

2 supportive0 mixed3 headwinds

  • Trendheadwind

    Below 50 and 200-day

    Close $7.59 is below the 50-day ($8.82) and 200-day ($13.22) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    66.4, Accumulation

    Reading 66.4 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    33.0% below

    Price is 33% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskheadwind

    Reports in 23 days

    Reports on Nov 4, 2026, 23 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalityheadwind

    −5.2% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −5.2% over 5 years, rising in 1 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Sunrun stock chart and price history

Sunrun closed at $7.59 on Oct 12, 2026, −62.6% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $7.27 to $22.44.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Sunrun share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$10$15$20NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct7.59

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−11.3%
3 months
−40.6%
6 months
−40.5%
1 year
−62.6%
The full RUN chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open RUN in Gekko

Follow Sunrun through every session

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About Sunrun

Sunrun provides home solar energy systems for residential customers across the United States. Its work spans the full process of going solar, including designing and developing systems, installing them, selling or arranging ownership, and maintaining them afterward. Beyond complete installations, Sunrun also supplies separate parts such as solar panels and racking hardware, and it pairs its solar setups with battery storage for homeowners who want it.

The company sells directly to homeowners rather than through intermediaries, reaching them through a mix of channels. These include online sales, partnerships with retailers, advertising across mass and digital media, door-to-door outreach, in-person field marketing, and customer referral programs.

Sunrun was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California. Its shares trade on the NASDAQ under the ticker RUN.

Listed
NASDAQ
Sector
Electronic technology
Industry
Semiconductors
Website
sunrun.com

Sunrun GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Sunrun’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 66.4, in the Accumulation zone, down 1.5 points over five sessions.

010066.4Accumulation

Down 1.5 points over five sessions.

Reading for Oct 12, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying42+4.7%+7.2%+1.5%+5.8%
Accumulation (current zone)287+0.7%+0.9%−0.2%+0.4%
Neutral338+0.2%+0.6%+1.9%+5.7%
Distribution11−9.2%−17.5%−17.0%−1.5%
Selling4Too few readings yet

Average RUN share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the RUN price, zone by zone.Track RUN in Gekko

Is Sunrun stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Sunrun trades 33.0% below Gekko Fair Value of $11.33, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Sunrun shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$11.33

Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026

33.0% Undervalued

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 39.8% below the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$11$8Aug 2026SepOct 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open RUN in Gekko

Sunrun insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Sunrun, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for RUN in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every RUN insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open RUN in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in RUN were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for RUN, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open RUN in Gekko

Buybacks

Sunrun has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, year ended Dec 31, 2019
$5.00M
As a share of market cap
0.28%

From company filings.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30

2of the funds Gekko tracks hold RUN.

1added0opened1trimmed0sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

Sunrun earnings: next date and track record

Sunrun reports on Nov 4, 2026, after the close (23 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports.

7 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±17.7%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−14.0%Nov ’24−13.6%Feb ’25+20.4%May ’25+27.4%Aug ’25−16.8%Nov ’25−32.2%Feb ’26+2.5%May ’26−15.0%Aug ’26
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Aug 5, 2026$0.42
est $0.23
+86.3%$870.0M
est $746.9M
+16.5%−15.0%
May 6, 2026$0.62
est −$0.07
+934.5%$722.2M
est $657.9M
+9.8%+2.5%
Feb 26, 2026$0.38
est −$0.04
+1,170.4%$1.16B
est $607.0M
+90.9%−32.2%
Nov 6, 2025$0.06
est $0.01
+500.0%$724.6M
est $610.3M
+18.7%−16.8%
Aug 6, 2025$1.07
est −$0.18
+694.4%$569.3M
est $601.7M
−5.4%+27.4%
May 7, 2025$0.20
est −$0.22
+190.9%$504.3M
est $487.1M
+3.5%+20.4%
Feb 27, 2025$1.41
est −$0.27
+622.2%$518.5M
est $541.0M
−4.2%−13.6%
Nov 7, 2024−$0.37
est −$0.16
−131.2%$537.2M
est $549.1M
−2.2%−14.0%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Sunrun stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Sunrun is $15.64, +106.1% from the last close, from 13 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$15.64consensus 12-month target, +106.1% from the last close
Low $10.50High $30
Buy10
Hold3
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 13 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Oct 9BarclaysHold, maintained$12+58.1%
Oct 9CitiBuy, maintained$14+84.5%
Oct 8Goldman SachsBuy, maintained$11+44.9%
Sep 21Goldman SachsBuy, reiterated$13+71.3%
Sep 10BarclaysHold, maintained$14+84.5%
−0.2%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
−5.2%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±4.8%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Sunrun seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Sunrun averaged −5.2% across the last 5 years, rising in 1 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+29.1%2021−7.1%2022−10.4%2023−25.3%2024−8.9%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days−1.4%3 of 5
Next 10 trading days−5.3%2 of 5
Next 15 trading days−0.9%2 of 5
Next 20 trading days−5.2%1 of 5
Next 30 trading days−1.2%2 of 5

For scale, RUN’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 15%.

Sunrun market cap and key statistics

Sunrun’s market cap is $1.81B, with a P/E ratio of 5.1 and revenue of $3.48B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$1.81B
P/E ratio
5.1
Forward P/E
7.9
EPS, TTM
$1.48
Gekko Fair Value
$11.33

Trading

Volume
5.56M
Avg volume, 20 days
7.88M
52-week high
$22.44
52-week low
$7.27
Shares outstanding
238.5M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$3.48B
Profit margin
11.6%
Return on equity
-19.9%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
−60.7%

Risk and income

Beta
2.44
Typical daily move
±4.8%
Typical 20-day move
±15%

Sunrun stock news this week

Coverage of Sunrun this week reads negative: 1 positive, 6 neutral and 9 negative headlines.

News sentiment negative

Sunrun peers

Sunrun’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
NVDANVIDIA−1.0%Neutral14.8% below
AVGOBroadcom−1.3%Neutral1.3% below
MUMicron Technology−1.3%Accumulation27.3% below
AMDAdvanced Micro Devices−0.9%Neutral13.2% above
INTCIntel−1.1%Accumulation1.5% above
TXNTexas Instruments+0.4%Neutral8.2% above

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

Sunrun stock FAQ

What is Sunrun’s market cap?

Sunrun’s market cap is $1.81B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $7.59, with 238.5M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 5.1.

What is the Sunrun stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Sunrun is $15.64, +106.1% from the last close. Of the 13 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 10 rate it a buy, 3 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Sunrun stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Sunrun is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $7.59 is 33.0% below Gekko Fair Value of $11.33. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Sunrun report earnings next?

Sunrun is expected to report on Nov 4, 2026, after the market closes (23 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.16 per share on revenue of $757.5M. Sunrun beat the earnings estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports, moving 17.7% on average across the report.

What is Sunrun’s 52-week high and low?

Sunrun’s 52-week high is $22.44 and its 52-week low is $7.27; it closed at $7.59 on Oct 12, 2026, −62.6% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $60.60 on Nov 8, 2021.

Is Sunrun stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex and fair value) and 3 as headwinds (trend, earnings risk and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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