RLJ Lodging Trust (RLJ) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Oct 12 close

$11.29+0.08 (+0.7%)
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Gekko Brief

AI summaryOct 12 close

This week's commentary centers on valuation. Several notes point to RLJ Lodging Trust trading below fair-value estimates, with one calculation placing fair value at $11.32, just above its last close, and citing low P/E and P/B ratios versus industry averages. One piece notes an upgrade to buy, pointing to the quality hotel portfolio, undervaluation relative to book value, positive FFO guidance for FY26, and a focus on property conversions. Separately, analysts carry a consensus "Reduce" rating with an average 12-month price target of $11.69, reflecting caution despite the valuation commentary, alongside a note that Q2 revenue rose 6.8% and net income rose 9.4%.

RLJ closed at $11.29, up 0.7%, sitting above both its 50-day average of $11.19 and 200-day average of $9.57, with the shorter average above the longer one. The GekkoIndex reads 53.4, placing it in the Neutral zone. The stock's one-year return stands at 67%, though the three-month return is -2.7%. Price sits 13.1% below Gekko Fair Value of $12.99.

Earnings are scheduled for 4 November 2026, 23 days away, falling inside a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the last report on 6 August showed EPS of $0.52 against an estimate of $0.44, though the stock reacted -9.7%. The last call described RevPAR growth of 6.8%, with ADR up 4.9% and occupancy up 130 bps. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the respective 90-day and 30-day windows. Seasonality over this stretch has averaged a 5.5% gain across 5 years, rising in 5 of them. Consensus analyst target sits at $11.75, implying 4.1% upside.

Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

RLJ Lodging Trust price vs fair value

$12.99$11.29Oct ’25Apr ’26Oct ’26
Close $11.29200-day averageGekko Fair Value $12.99

RLJ Lodging Trust quick facts

Market cap
$1.72B
P/E ratio
0
Forward P/E
2000
EPS, TTM
$0.00
Revenue, TTM
$1.38B
Profit margin
2%
Dividend yield
5.39%
Beta
1.14
Volume
1.17M avg 1.71M
1-year return
+67.0%
Typical daily move
±2.4%
Typical 20-day move
±5%
50-day average
$11.19
200-day average
$9.57
Next earnings
Nov 4
Shares outstanding
152.4M
52-week range
$6.54$12.89

RLJ Lodging Trust swing-trade checklist

RLJ Lodging Trust scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive1 mixed1 headwind

  • Trendsupportive

    Above 50 and 200-day

    Close $11.29 is above the 50-day ($11.19) and 200-day ($9.57) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexmixed

    53.4, Neutral

    Reading 53.4 is in the Neutral zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    13.1% below

    Price is 13.1% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskheadwind

    Reports in 23 days

    Reports on Nov 4, 2026, 23 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +5.5% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +5.5% over 5 years, rising in 5 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

RLJ Lodging Trust stock chart and price history

RLJ Lodging Trust closed at $11.29 on Oct 12, 2026, +67.0% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $6.54 to $12.89.

5Y and weekly in Gekko
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
RLJ Lodging Trust share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$8$10$12NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct11.29

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
+3.8%
3 months
−2.7%
6 months
+40.4%
1 year
+67.0%
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About RLJ Lodging Trust

RLJ Lodging Trust invests in and holds upscale hotels that operate under well-known brands, with a focus on properties offering focused service or a compact version of full service. These hotels are generally built to run efficiently and generate strong margins, which is the trait the Trust is most recognized for within its holdings. Its portfolio spans 103 properties with around 22,570 guest rooms, located across 23 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, and it also holds a partial stake in one additional hotel that is not consolidated into its main holdings, adding 171 more rooms to its reach.

The Trust operates as a real estate investment trust and manages its own operations rather than outsourcing that function, meaning it directly oversees its property holdings as a self-managed structure. Its business centers on owning branded hospitality real estate rather than running the hotels' day-to-day guest services itself.

No ticker-listed exchange detail is available beyond the fact that its shares trade under the ticker RLJ.

Sector
Finance
Website
rljlodgingtrust.com

RLJ Lodging Trust GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

RLJ Lodging Trust’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 53.4, in the Neutral zone, down 1.4 points over five sessions.

010053.4Neutral

Down 1.4 points over five sessions.

Reading for Oct 12, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying55−0.1%−0.7%−2.5%−5.5%
Accumulation246+0.1%0.0%−0.4%−0.2%
Neutral (current zone)299−0.2%−0.2%+0.5%+3.4%
Distribution35+1.5%+3.9%+6.4%+5.3%
Selling0Not available

Average RLJ share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the RLJ price, zone by zone.Track RLJ in Gekko

Is RLJ Lodging Trust stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

RLJ Lodging Trust trades 13.1% below Gekko Fair Value of $12.99, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what RLJ Lodging Trust shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$12.99

Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026

13.1% Undervalued

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 22.1% below the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$13$11Aug 2026SepOct 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open RLJ in Gekko

RLJ Lodging Trust insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for RLJ Lodging Trust, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for RLJ in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every RLJ insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open RLJ in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in RLJ were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for RLJ, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open RLJ in Gekko

Buybacks

RLJ Lodging Trust has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$367K
As a share of market cap
0.02%
Trailing four quarters
$8.46M

From company filings.

RLJ Lodging Trust earnings: next date and track record

RLJ Lodging Trust reports on Nov 4, 2026 (23 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports.

7 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±3.8%average move across the report
5 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+4.1%Nov ’24+0.1%Feb ’25−4.0%May ’25−5.2%Aug ’25+0.9%Nov ’25+0.9%Feb ’26+5.7%May ’26−9.7%Aug ’26

Last earnings call, Aug 6, 2026 AI summary

What they said
RLJ Lodging Trust reported a strong second quarter, beating expectations with broad-based growth across its urban-centric portfolio. RevPAR grew 6.8% (ADR +4.9%, occupancy +130 bps) driven by accelerating business travel and resilient urban leisure demand; non-room revenues grew ~7.1% and EBITDA/AFFO showed flow-through to the bottom line with high single-digit EBITDA growth and margin improvement. Management highlighted successful renovations and conversions (including the transformative Autograph conversion and announced Margaritaville/Key West conversion), strong returns on conversion capital (north of 40% on incremental capital; projected EBITDA upside of ~50% for Key West), and continued focus on F&B and ROI initiatives. The company emphasized a healthy balance sheet, $250M share repurchase authorization, active use of capital allocation tools, and a pipeline targeting ~2 conversions per year. Management provided cadence and pacing color for the back half of the year (July strong, August flat, September benefit from Salesforce, Q4 softer due to Salesforce shift and election timing), and guidance on expense growth for the back half of the year.
Guidance
Back-half expense growth guidance: implied ~3% at the midpoint and ~4% at the high end (total expense growth, per occupied-room similar). Pace/booking assumptions: ~104% pace full-year, ~110% in Q3. July was ~+11% actual; August expected relatively flat; September benefits from Salesforce (but has later Labor Day); Q3 expected to be better than Q4; Q4 pace down year-over-year due to Salesforce shift; cadence of renovations/conversions: ~2-3 projects per year. $250 million share repurchase authorization. (No explicit numeric revenue or AFFO guidance disclosed on the call beyond cadence/color.)
Risks flagged
Potential headwinds cited include elevated operating expenses tied to higher occupancy (transaction costs, TA/credit card fees), shorter length-of-stay leading to more checkouts, elevated energy costs, incremental bonus accruals given strong performance, timing/displacement effects from renovations/conversions, sensitivity to event timing (e.g., Salesforce schedule change) which softens Q4 pacing, election-related demand impacts, and market-by-market variability in the transaction market (pricing on a case-by-case basis). Generic SEC-filed risks also apply (discussed in opening disclaimer).
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Aug 6, 2026$0.52
est $0.44		+18.2%$383.0M
est $370.5M		+3.4%−9.7%
May 4, 2026−$0.01
est −$0.05		+79.2%$340.0M
est $323.5M		+5.1%+5.7%
Feb 26, 2026$0.32
est −$0.07		+561.0%$328.6M
est $318.0M		+3.3%+0.9%
Nov 5, 2025$0.27
est $0.26		+3.8%$330.0M
est $317.6M		+3.9%+0.9%
Aug 7, 2025$0.48
est $0.46		+4.3%$363.1M
est $328.0M		+10.7%−5.2%
May 5, 2025−$0.02
est $0.13		−116.0%$328.1M
est $327.4M		+0.2%−4.0%
Feb 25, 2025−$0.01
est −$0.04		+82.0%$330.0M
est $324.9M		+1.6%+0.1%
Nov 7, 2024$0.09
est $0.00		+2,912.5%$345.7M
est $342.9M		+0.8%+4.1%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

RLJ Lodging Trust stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for RLJ Lodging Trust is $11.75, +4.1% from the last close, from 7 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$11.75consensus 12-month target, +4.1% from the last close
Low $10.50High $13
Buy1
Hold3
Sell3

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 7 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 28Raymond JamesHold, downgraded$11−2.6%
Sep 21Truist FinancialHold, reiterated$11−2.6%
Aug 27BarclaysSell, maintained$11−2.6%
Aug 11OppenheimerBuy, reiterated$13+15.1%
Aug 10Ladenburg Thalmann & Co.Hold, maintained$13+15.1%
+0.5%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+5.5%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.4%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

RLJ Lodging Trust seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, RLJ Lodging Trust averaged +5.5% across the last 5 years, rising in 5 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+1.7%2021+9.6%2022+3.2%2023+3.6%2024+9.8%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+3.2%5 of 5
Next 10 trading days+3.0%2 of 5
Next 15 trading days+3.7%4 of 5
Next 20 trading days+5.5%5 of 5
Next 30 trading days+6.1%4 of 5

For scale, RLJ’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 5%.

RLJ Lodging Trust market cap and key statistics

RLJ Lodging Trust’s market cap is $1.72B, with a P/E ratio of 0 and revenue of $1.38B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$1.72B
P/E ratio
0
Forward P/E
2000
EPS, TTM
$0.00
Gekko Fair Value
$12.99

Trading

Volume
1.17M
Avg volume, 20 days
1.71M
52-week high
$12.89
52-week low
$6.54
Shares outstanding
152.4M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$1.38B
Profit margin
2%
Return on equity
1.3%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+9.4%

Risk and income

Beta
1.14
Typical daily move
±2.4%
Typical 20-day move
±5%
Dividend yield
5.39%

RLJ Lodging Trust stock news this week

Coverage of RLJ Lodging Trust this week reads positive: 3 positive, 2 neutral and 0 negative headlines.

News sentiment positive

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RLJ Lodging Trust stock FAQ

What is RLJ Lodging Trust’s market cap?

RLJ Lodging Trust’s market cap is $1.72B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $11.29, with 152.4M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 0.

What is the RLJ Lodging Trust stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for RLJ Lodging Trust is $11.75, +4.1% from the last close. Of the 7 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 1 rate it a buy, 3 a hold and 3 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is RLJ Lodging Trust stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate RLJ Lodging Trust is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $11.29 is 13.1% below Gekko Fair Value of $12.99. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does RLJ Lodging Trust report earnings next?

RLJ Lodging Trust is expected to report on Nov 4, 2026 (23 days away). Analysts expect earnings of −$0.04 per share on revenue of $340.1M. RLJ Lodging Trust beat the earnings estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports, moving 3.8% on average across the report.

What is RLJ Lodging Trust’s 52-week high and low?

RLJ Lodging Trust’s 52-week high is $12.89 and its 52-week low is $6.54; it closed at $11.29 on Oct 12, 2026, +67.0% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $16.22 on Nov 5, 2021.

Is RLJ Lodging Trust stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (trend, fair value and seasonality), 1 as mixed (gekkoindex) and 1 as a headwind (earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

Built and overseen by Jared Mann

Founder of Gekko.app. Jared has traded stocks and ETFs for more than 20 years and has a financial industry background.

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