Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for RIO in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every RIO insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open RIO in Gekko
Rio Tinto (RIO) Stock Analysis & Forecast
$97.37−0.67 (−0.7%)
Close on Sep 18, 2026. Page updated Sep 19, 9:18 pm ET.
Gekko Brief
AI summaryRio Tinto closes at $97.37, down 0.7%, sitting between its 50-day average of $98.03 and 200-day average of $94.59. The GekkoIndex reads 60.8, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone, while the gap to Gekko Fair Value of $123.97 stands at -21.5%. Over the past year the stock has returned 54.6%, though the 1-month return is -3.1% and the 3-month return is -2.7%, with the 6-month figure at 13.7%.
This week's news centers on two themes: partnership and shareholder returns. Rio Tinto has partnered with Prysmian to supply low-carbon aluminum cables, using ELYSIS inert-anode technology, for an Amazon data center in Ohio. Separately, the company set local currency conversion rates for its 2026 interim dividend of 211 U.S. cents per share, payable on 24 September 2026, with UK, Australian, and New Zealand shareholders receiving equivalent local-currency amounts.
Looking ahead to the next 20 trading days, no confirmed earnings date appears on the calendar, with the last report on 28 July 2026 showing EPS of $4.21 against an estimate of $4.09, a beat that produced a 1.9% reaction; the company has beaten estimates in 4 of the last 8 quarters. Analyst views are split across 4 firms, with 1 buy, 2 hold, and 1 sell rating, and a consensus target of $104.09, implying 6.9% upside. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 3.3% gain over 5 years, positive in 3 of those years.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 20, 2026 from the data above.
Price vs fair value
Close $97.37200-day averageGekko Fair Value $123.97
Key stats
- Market cap
- $158.2B
- P/E ratio
- 13
- Forward P/E
- 12
- EPS, TTM
- $7.56
- Revenue, TTM
- $61.79B
- Profit margin
- 19.6%
- Dividend yield
- 4.85%
- Beta
- 0.66
- Volume
- 1.31M avg 1.83M
- 1-year return
- +54.6%
- Typical daily move
- ±2.3%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±5.7%
- 50-day average
- $98.03
- 200-day average
- $94.59
- Next earnings
- —
- Shares outstanding
- 1.25B
Rio Tinto swing-trade checklist
Rio Tinto scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 0 headwinds across the 4 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive1 mixed0 headwinds
- Trendmixed
Averages disagree
Close $97.37 sits between the 50-day ($98.03) and 200-day ($94.59) averages, or the averages disagree.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
60.8, Accumulation
Reading 60.8 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
21.5% below
Price is 21.5% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings riskno data
No data
No confirmed report date on the calendar.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+3.3% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +3.3% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Rio Tinto stock chart and price history
Rio Tinto closed at $97.37 on Sep 18, 2026, +54.6% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $61.72 to $112.58.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −3.1%
- 3 months
- −2.7%
- 6 months
- +13.7%
- 1 year
- +54.6%
The full RIO chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open RIO in Gekko
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About Rio Tinto
Rio Tinto searches for, extracts, and processes mineral resources on a global scale. Its work spans iron ore, aluminium and lithium, and copper, and it is widely recognized for its scale in mining raw materials that feed into industries such as construction, transport, and electronics.
The business is structured around three segments. The Iron Ore division mines iron ore and produces salt and gypsum in Western Australia. The Aluminium and lithium division handles bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminium smelting and recycling, along with lithium mining and processing. The Copper division mines and refines copper together with gold, silver, molybdenum, and related by-products, and also carries out exploration work. Across these segments, the company runs open pit and underground mines as well as refineries, smelters, processing plants, power facilities, and shipping operations.
Rio Tinto was established in 1873 and has its headquarters in London, United Kingdom. Its shares trade under the ticker RIO.
- Sector
- Non-energy minerals
- Website
- riotinto.com
Rio Tinto GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Rio Tinto’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 60.8, in the Accumulation zone, up 2.1 points over five sessions.
60.8Accumulation
Up 2.1 points over five sessions, from the Neutral zone.
Reading for Sep 18, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 15 | +3.4% | +6.0% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 175 | +0.5% | +2.6% | ||
| Neutral | 396 | +0.4% | +1.2% | ||
| Distribution | 29 | −0.4% | +2.7% | ||
| Selling | 0 | Not available | |||
Average RIO share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the RIO price, zone by zone.Track RIO in Gekko
Is Rio Tinto stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Rio Tinto trades 21.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $123.97, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Rio Tinto shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$123.97
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 19, 2026
21.5% Undervalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open RIO in Gekko
Rio Tinto insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Rio Tinto, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in RIO were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for RIO, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open RIO in Gekko
Buybacks
Rio Tinto has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Dec 31, 2020
- $3.73M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.00%
From company filings.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
0of the funds Gekko tracks hold RIO.
0added0opened0trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
Rio Tinto earnings: next date and track record
Rio Tinto beat the EPS estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports, moving 1.6% on average across the report.
4 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±1.6%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Jul 28, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Rio Tinto reported strong H1 2026 results with momentum building month-on-month across operations. Nearly 60% of EBITDA was delivered from copper, aluminum, and lithium segments. Key projects are tracking to plan: Simandou is over 75% complete, Oyu Tolgoi (OT) is achieving record production, and Rhodes Ridge study is progressing on track. Management emphasized operational efficiency improvements and world-class asset monetization.
- Guidance
- Management signaled continued focus on performance and shareholder returns through the cycle. Major growth projects including Simandou, OT ramp-up, and lithium initiatives are advancing, with several ahead of schedule, suggesting near-term production growth across key commodities.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 2026 | $4.21 est $4.09 | $31.03B est $31.62B | +1.9% |
| Feb 19, 2026 | $3.73 est $3.71 | $30.77B est $30.19B | −1.9% |
| Oct 14, 2025 | $0.00 est $0.00 | — | +1.0% |
| Jul 29, 2025 | $2.23 est $2.35 | $19.72B est $19.78B | −4.3% |
| Feb 19, 2025 | $2.49 est $2.56 | $21.46B est $21.64B | +0.2% |
| Oct 15, 2024 | $3.56 est $3.49 | $26.80B est $27.04B | −2.6% |
| Jul 31, 2024 | $2.76 est $2.73 | $21.17B est $21.11B | −0.1% |
| May 14, 2024 | $0.00 est $0.00 | $27.16B est $27.88B | +0.7% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Rio Tinto stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Rio Tinto is $104.09, +6.9% from the last close, from 4 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$104.09consensus 12-month target, +6.9% from the last close
Now $97.37Avg $104.09
Low $89.50High $125.54
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 4 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9 | Bernstein | $89.50 | −8.1% |
| Aug 27 | Erste Group | — | — |
| Aug 24 | Morgan Stanley | $90 | −7.6% |
| Jul 29 | Bank of America Securities | $125.54 | +28.9% |
| Jul 15 | Bernstein | $88.50 | −9.1% |
+2.6%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+3.3%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.3%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Rio Tinto seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 19, Rio Tinto averaged +3.3% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | −0.1% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +2.9% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +2.7% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +3.3% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +1.8% | 2 of 5 |
For scale, RIO’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 5.7%.
Rio Tinto market cap and key statistics
Rio Tinto’s market cap is $158.2B, with a P/E ratio of 13 and revenue of $61.79B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $158.2B
- P/E ratio
- 13
- Forward P/E
- 12
- EPS, TTM
- $7.56
- Gekko Fair Value
- $123.97
Trading
- Volume
- 1.31M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 1.83M
- 52-week high
- $112.58
- 52-week low
- $61.72
- Shares outstanding
- 1.25B
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $61.79B
- Profit margin
- 19.6%
- Return on equity
- 19.3%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +46.9%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.66
- Typical daily move
- ±2.3%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±5.7%
- Dividend yield
- 4.85%
Rio Tinto stock news this week
2 headlines about Rio Tinto from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.
Rio Tinto stock FAQ
What is Rio Tinto’s market cap?
Rio Tinto’s market cap is $158.2B at the Sep 18, 2026 close of $97.37, with 1.25B shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 13.
What is the Rio Tinto stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Rio Tinto is $104.09, +6.9% from the last close. Of the 4 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 1 rate it a buy, 2 a hold and 1 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Rio Tinto stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Rio Tinto is undervalued: the Sep 18, 2026 close of $97.37 is 21.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $123.97. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
What is Rio Tinto’s 52-week high and low?
Rio Tinto’s 52-week high is $112.58 and its 52-week low is $61.72; it closed at $97.37 on Sep 18, 2026, +54.6% over the past year.
Is Rio Tinto stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 4 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and seasonality), 1 as mixed (trend). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
Prices and signals update after every US market close; the GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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