Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for PAX in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every PAX insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open PAX in Gekko
NASDAQ: PAX
Patria Investments (PAX) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$11.87+0.20 (+1.7%)
Gekko Brief
Oct 12 closePatria Investments closed at $11.87 on 12 October 2026, +1.7% on the day. The price sits between the 50-day ($10.98) and 200-day ($12.34) moving averages, inside a 52-week range of $9.89 to $17.80. The GekkoIndex reads 46.1, in the Neutral zone, down 8.1 points over five sessions. Gekko Fair Value is $12.58, so the price is 5.6% below it.
The next earnings report is due on 10 November 2026, 29 days away (before open). Over the last 8 reports the company beat the earnings estimate 4 times, with an average move of 3.6% across the report. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days from this point averaged +6.3% over the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
2 firms rate the stock: 0 buy, 1 hold and 1 sell, with a consensus target of $15.00. A typical daily move is about 2.7%, and a typical 20-day move about 5.2%. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 items read supportive and 1 reads as a headwind (earnings risk).
A plain summary of the figures as of the Oct 12, 2026 close.
Patria Investments price vs fair value
Close $11.87200-day averageGekko Fair Value $12.58
Patria Investments quick facts
- Market cap
- $1.92B
- P/E ratio
- 26.2
- Forward P/E
- 8.1
- EPS, TTM
- $0.43
- Revenue, TTM
- $428.0M
- Profit margin
- 16.3%
- Dividend yield
- 5.52%
- Beta
- 0.78
- Volume
- 1.00M avg 1.11M
- 1-year return
- −15.3%
- Typical daily move
- ±2.7%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±5.2%
- 50-day average
- $10.98
- 200-day average
- $12.34
- Next earnings
- Nov 10 before open
- Shares outstanding
- 71.01M
Patria Investments swing-trade checklist
Patria Investments scores 2 supportive, 2 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
2 supportive2 mixed1 headwind
- Trendmixed
Averages disagree
Close $11.87 sits between the 50-day ($10.98) and 200-day ($12.34) averages, or the averages disagree.
See the chart - GekkoIndexmixed
46.1, Neutral
Reading 46.1 is in the Neutral zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
5.6% below
Price is 5.6% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 29 days
Reports on Nov 10, 2026, 29 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+6.3% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +6.3% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Patria Investments stock chart and price history
Patria Investments closed at $11.87 on Oct 12, 2026, −15.3% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $9.89 to $17.80.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- +11.8%
- 3 months
- +6.9%
- 6 months
- −4.8%
- 1 year
- −15.3%
The full PAX chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open PAX in Gekko
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About Patria Investments
Patria Investments manages money on behalf of other investors, putting capital into private companies rather than publicly traded stocks. Its work spans buyouts, growth-stage funding and venture capital, with a particular pull toward the middle market, and it takes both majority and minority positions, often alongside co-investors. Rather than sticking to one corner of the economy, Patria spreads its attention across areas such as agribusiness, energy, healthcare, transportation, food production, education and outsourced business and technology services, with geographic emphasis on Latin America, Europe and North America, including the United States and Brazil.
Beyond direct private equity bets, the firm runs a broader asset management business, offering funds tied to infrastructure, co-investment opportunities, equity strategies aimed at shaping company direction, and real estate and credit products. These offerings are built for investors seeking exposure to private markets rather than public ones. Patria operates as part of Patria Holdings Limited, its parent organization.
The company traces its founding to 1994 and is headquartered in Grand Cayman, in the Cayman Islands, with a presence extending to offices across South America, North America, Europe and Asia. Its shares are listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker PAX.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Finance
- Industry
- Investment managers
- Website
- patria.com
Patria Investments GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Patria Investments’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 46.1, in the Neutral zone, down 8.1 points over five sessions.
46.1Neutral
Down 8.1 points over five sessions.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 64 | 0.0% | +1.7% | ||
| Accumulation | 243 | +0.2% | +0.6% | ||
| Neutral (current zone) | 340 | −0.3% | −1.9% | ||
| Distribution | 34 | −0.1% | +0.5% | ||
| Selling | 1 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average PAX share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the PAX price, zone by zone.Track PAX in Gekko
Is Patria Investments stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Patria Investments trades 5.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $12.58, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Patria Investments shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$12.58
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026
5.6% Undervalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 19.2% below the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open PAX in Gekko
Patria Investments insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Patria Investments, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in PAX were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for PAX, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open PAX in Gekko
Buybacks
Patria Investments has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Mar 31, 2026
- $12.68M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.66%
From company filings.
Patria Investments earnings: next date and track record
Patria Investments reports on Nov 10, 2026, before the open (29 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 10, 2026
Expected before the open, 29 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.29
- Revenue estimate
- $103.7M
4 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±3.6%average move across the report
5 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Jul 31, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Patria reported a strong Q2 2026 with robust fundraising, AUM growth, and improving fee-related earnings. Fundraising in Q2 totaled $2.3 billion, bringing year-to-date fundraising to $4.5 billion, with management reiterating FRE guidance of $225 million to $245 million for 2026 and expressing confidence fundraising will exceed prior records and meet multi-year targets. Fee-earning AUM reached $48.9 billion (up ~7% sequentially, 32% YoY), driving fee-related earnings (FRE) of $57.1 million (up 13% sequentially and 24% YoY) and distributable earnings per share of $0.32 (up 19% sequentially, 31% YoY). Investment performance was highlighted as a driver of fundraising, with over 85% of fee-earning AUM (ex-SMAs/3rd-party) performing at or above benchmarks and credit strategies showing strong long-term returns. Management discussed margin dynamics: FRE margin was 54% (down slightly due to recent acquisitions and expense investment) but management expects margins to return to the 58-60% range as integration synergies are realized. Transaction and restructuring costs were elevated due to M&A activity (~$11m in Q2) but are expected to decline to ~$7-8m per quarter in Q3/Q4 and fall significantly in 2027. CFO explained a decline in shareholders’ equity driven by recognition of a gross obligation related to put options on minority interests following the Solis acquisition. Q&A covered product fee mix, SMA margins, structuring fees from Solis, regional fundraising strength (credit, infrastructure, GPMS), M&A cadence, and portfolio redemptions (some were re-allocations rather than true outflows). Overall tone was confident and constructive, with management reiterating guidance and describing the margin/expense items as timing-related and manageable.
- Guidance
- Fee-related earnings (FRE) guidance for full-year 2026 reiterated at $225 million to $245 million. Management expects FRE margin to trend back to ~58%–60% as integrations complete (targeted heading into 2027). Fundraising: management expects to exceed 2026 target of $7 billion and potentially surpass 2025 record of $7.7 billion; on pace to exceed the 3-year (2025–2027) target of $21 billion. Transaction/restructuring costs expected to decline from ~$11 million in Q2 to ~$7–8 million per quarter in Q3/Q4 2026 and significantly lower in 2027. No explicit revenue/earnings per-share numeric guidance beyond FRE provided.
- Risks flagged
- Short-term pressure on FRE margins and ROA due to recent acquisitions with lower margins; elevated transaction and restructuring costs from M&A activity in 2026; accounting recognition of gross obligations related to put options on minority interests (post-Solis) impacting equity; variability in timing and magnitude of structuring/other fees (difficult to forecast); potential redemptions or re-allocations in credit funds (liquidity dynamics); FX and macro factors (FX mentioned as an influence on margins/expenses).
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | $0.32 est $0.29 | $82.50M est $98.12M | +1.8% |
| May 7, 2026 | $0.27 est $0.28 | $97.10M est $92.57M | −4.3% |
| Feb 3, 2026 | $0.50 est $0.47 | $131.2M est $117.1M | −6.4% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | $0.30 est $0.26 | $86.50M est $117.3M | +4.3% |
| Aug 1, 2025 | $0.24 est $0.30 | $82.52M est $84.06M | −1.1% |
| May 2, 2025 | $0.23 est $0.25 | $79.70M est $98.81M | +0.7% |
| Feb 12, 2025 | $0.58 est $0.35 | $157.3M est $92.31M | +6.1% |
| Nov 5, 2024 | $0.23 est $0.24 | $78.00M est $95.71M | +4.1% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Patria Investments stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Patria Investments is $15.00, +26.4% from the last close, from 2 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$15.00consensus 12-month target, +26.4% from the last close
Now $11.87Avg $15.00
Low $9High $13
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 2 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 | Bank of America Securities | $9 | −24.2% |
| Sep 10 | J.P. Morgan | $13 | +9.5% |
| Sep 9 | Bank of America Securities | $10 | −15.8% |
−1.9%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+6.3%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.7%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Patria Investments seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Patria Investments averaged +6.3% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +1.5% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −0.4% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +4.0% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +6.3% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +4.0% | 3 of 5 |
For scale, PAX’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 5.2%.
Patria Investments market cap and key statistics
Patria Investments’s market cap is $1.92B, with a P/E ratio of 26.2 and revenue of $428.0M over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $1.92B
- P/E ratio
- 26.2
- Forward P/E
- 8.1
- EPS, TTM
- $0.43
- Gekko Fair Value
- $12.58
Trading
- Volume
- 1.00M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 1.11M
- 52-week high
- $17.80
- 52-week low
- $9.89
- Shares outstanding
- 71.01M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $428.0M
- Profit margin
- 16.3%
- Return on equity
- 12.9%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- −18.7%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.78
- Typical daily move
- ±2.7%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±5.2%
- Dividend yield
- 5.52%
Patria Investments stock news this week
1 headline about Patria Investments from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.
Patria Investments peers
Patria Investments’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| MSMorgan Stanley | Accumulation | 11.1% below |
| BLKBlackRock | Neutral | 9.0% below |
| UBSUBS | Accumulation | 10.2% below |
| BXBlackstone | Accumulation | 15.2% below |
| BNBrookfield | Accumulation | 18.9% below |
| KKRKKR | Accumulation | 17.8% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Patria Investments stock FAQ
What is Patria Investments’s market cap?
Patria Investments’s market cap is $1.92B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $11.87, with 71.01M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 26.2.
What is the Patria Investments stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Patria Investments is $15.00, +26.4% from the last close. Of the 2 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 0 rate it a buy, 1 a hold and 1 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Patria Investments stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Patria Investments is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $11.87 is 5.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $12.58. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Patria Investments report earnings next?
Patria Investments is expected to report on Nov 10, 2026, before the market opens (29 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.29 per share on revenue of $103.7M. Patria Investments beat the earnings estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports, moving 3.6% on average across the report.
What is Patria Investments’s 52-week high and low?
Patria Investments’s 52-week high is $17.80 and its 52-week low is $9.89; it closed at $11.87 on Oct 12, 2026, −15.3% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $19.49 on Nov 18, 2021.
Is Patria Investments stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (fair value and seasonality), 2 as mixed (trend and gekkoindex) and 1 as a headwind (earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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