Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for ARCC in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every ARCC insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open ARCC in Gekko
NASDAQ: ARCC
Ares Capital (ARCC) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Sep 28 close
$19.13−0.07 (−0.4%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryThis week brings a Q1 2025 earnings report for Ares Capital Corp (0HHP), showing actual EPS of $0.50 against a consensus of $0.53, with revenue at $671.00M versus an expected $763.63M, a -1.76% year-over-year decline. A separate note observed the stock at $19.15, down -1.08% on the day, a steeper dip than the broader market.
ARCC closes at $19.13, down -0.4%, sitting between its 50-day average of $19.53 and 200-day average of $19.22. The stock is down -3.8% over one month but up 3.3% over three months and 9.6% over six months, with a 52-week range of $17.40 to $21.14. The GekkoIndex reads 65.6, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone, up 4.3 over five sessions. Gekko Fair Value stands at $20.03, putting the current price 4.5% below that mark.
The next earnings date falls on 27 October 2026, 28 days out and within a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior report on 29 July showed core earnings of $0.47 per share matching estimates, with a -1.1% reaction. Seasonality over five years shows an average 20-day return of 2.8% from this point in the calendar, though gains occurred in only 3 of those years. Analyst consensus across 7 firms shows 4 buy and 3 hold ratings, with a consensus target of $20.77, an 8.6% upside from current levels. One trailblazer holder is on record, though no insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the respective 90-day and 30-day windows.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.
Ares Capital price vs fair value
Close $19.13200-day averageGekko Fair Value $20.03
Ares Capital quick facts
- Market cap
- $13.74B
- P/E ratio
- 14.3
- Forward P/E
- 10
- EPS, TTM
- $1.34
- Revenue, TTM
- $3.11B
- Profit margin
- 30.9%
- Dividend yield
- 10.00%
- Beta
- 0.63
- Volume
- 3.98M avg 4.64M
- 1-year return
- −7.0%
- Typical daily move
- ±1.4%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±2.9%
- 50-day average
- $19.53
- 200-day average
- $19.22
- Next earnings
- Oct 27
- Shares outstanding
- 718.0M
Ares Capital swing-trade checklist
Ares Capital scores 2 supportive, 2 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
2 supportive2 mixed1 headwind
- Trendmixed
Averages disagree
Close $19.13 sits between the 50-day ($19.53) and 200-day ($19.22) averages, or the averages disagree.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
65.6, Accumulation
Reading 65.6 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuemixed
4.5% below
Price is within 5% of Gekko Fair Value (4.5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 28 days
Reports on Oct 27, 2026, 28 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+2.8% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +2.8% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Ares Capital stock chart and price history
Ares Capital closed at $19.13 on Sep 28, 2026, −7.0% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $17.40 to $21.14.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −3.8%
- 3 months
- +3.3%
- 6 months
- +9.6%
- 1 year
- −7.0%
The full ARCC chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open ARCC in Gekko
Follow Ares Capital through every session
Put ARCC on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.
Track ARCC in GekkoFree for 7 days. No credit card required.
Ares Capital GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Ares Capital’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 65.6, in the Accumulation zone, up 4.3 points over five sessions.
65.6Accumulation
Up 4.3 points over five sessions.
Reading for Sep 28, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 37 | +0.5% | −0.1% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 201 | +0.4% | +0.6% | ||
| Neutral | 405 | −0.2% | −0.2% | ||
| Distribution | 20 | −0.5% | −1.4% | ||
| Selling | 9 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average ARCC share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the ARCC price, zone by zone.Track ARCC in Gekko
Is Ares Capital stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Ares Capital trades 4.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $20.03, so the shares are about fair value on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Ares Capital shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$20.03
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 29, 2026
4.5% below fair value · About fair value
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open ARCC in Gekko
Ares Capital insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Ares Capital, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in ARCC were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for ARCC, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open ARCC in Gekko
Buybacks
Ares Capital has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, year ended Dec 31, 2020
- $100.0M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.73%
From company filings.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
1of the funds Gekko tracks holds ARCC.
0added0opened1trimmed0sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
Ares Capital earnings: next date and track record
Ares Capital reports on Oct 27, 2026 (28 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 1 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Oct 27, 2026
28 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.48
- Revenue estimate
- $776.4M
1 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±1.8%average move across the report
2 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Jul 29, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- ARCC reported Q2 2026 core earnings of $0.47 per share, representing an annualized ROE of 9.7%, consistent with the prior quarter. Portfolio performance remained healthy with low non-accrual loans and organic EBITDA growth. The company reviewed 25% more transactions than Q1, with June being one of the strongest months for new transactions in two years. 75% of Q2 transactions were with incumbent borrowers across 619 portfolio companies.
- Guidance
- Management expressed confidence in capitalizing on opportunities as M&A activity recovers, citing strong balance sheet positioning with significant available capital and no near-term maturities. Momentum from increased deal flow in late Q2 is expected to support continued origination activity.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | $0.47 est $0.47 | $768.0M est $770.2M | −1.1% |
| Apr 28, 2026 | $0.47 est $0.48 | $763.0M est $778.0M | +0.3% |
| Feb 4, 2026 | $0.50 est $0.50 | $793.0M est $793.0M | −1.8% |
| Oct 28, 2025 | $0.50 est $0.50 | $655.0M est $768.1M | +1.4% |
| Jul 29, 2025 | $0.50 est $0.51 | $579.0M est $748.8M | −0.3% |
| Apr 29, 2025 | $0.50 est $0.53 | $446.0M est $763.6M | −2.8% |
| Feb 5, 2025 | $0.55 est $0.58 | $759.0M est $785.4M | −4.5% |
| Oct 30, 2024 | $0.58 est $0.60 | $613.0M est $770.4M | −2.0% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Ares Capital stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Ares Capital is $20.77, +8.6% from the last close, from 7 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$20.77consensus 12-month target, +8.6% from the last close
Now $19.13Avg $20.77
Low $19High $21
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 7 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2 | UBS | $21 | +9.8% |
| Sep 1 | J.P. Morgan | $21 | +9.8% |
| Aug 26 | Wells Fargo | $19 | −0.7% |
| Aug 21 | Bank of America Securities | $20.50 | +7.2% |
| Aug 4 | J.P. Morgan | $19 | −0.7% |
+0.6%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+2.8%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±1.4%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Ares Capital seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 26, Ares Capital averaged +2.8% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +0.4% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −0.2% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +2.2% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +2.8% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +5.0% | 4 of 5 |
For scale, ARCC’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 2.9%.
Ares Capital market cap and key statistics
Ares Capital’s market cap is $13.74B, with a P/E ratio of 14.3 and revenue of $3.11B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $13.74B
- P/E ratio
- 14.3
- Forward P/E
- 10
- EPS, TTM
- $1.34
- Gekko Fair Value
- $20.03
Trading
- Volume
- 3.98M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 4.64M
- 52-week high
- $21.14
- 52-week low
- $17.40
- Shares outstanding
- 718.0M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $3.11B
- Profit margin
- 30.9%
- Return on equity
- 6.9%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- −54.1%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.63
- Typical daily move
- ±1.4%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±2.9%
- Dividend yield
- 10.00%
Ares Capital stock news this week
2 headlines about Ares Capital from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.
- Ares Capital Corp (0HHP) Q1 2025 Earnings Report - Results, Call & SlidesTipRanks, Sep 25
- Ares Capital (ARCC) Sees a More Significant Dip Than Broader Market: Some Facts to KnowZacks Investment Research, Sep 23
Ares Capital peers
Ares Capital’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| MSMorgan Stanley | Accumulation | 12.7% below |
| BLKBlackRock | Accumulation | 10.3% below |
| UBSUBS | Accumulation | 9.5% below |
| BXBlackstone | Buying | 16.8% below |
| KKRKKR | Accumulation | 18.1% below |
| BNBrookfield | Buying | 21.8% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Ares Capital stock FAQ
What is Ares Capital’s market cap?
Ares Capital’s market cap is $13.74B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $19.13, with 718.0M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 14.3.
What is the Ares Capital stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Ares Capital is $20.77, +8.6% from the last close. Of the 7 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 4 rate it a buy, 3 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Ares Capital stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Ares Capital is about fair value: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $19.13 is 4.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $20.03. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Ares Capital report earnings next?
Ares Capital is expected to report on Oct 27, 2026 (28 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.48 per share on revenue of $776.4M. Ares Capital beat the earnings estimate in 1 of its last 8 reports, moving 1.8% on average across the report.
What is Ares Capital’s 52-week high and low?
Ares Capital’s 52-week high is $21.14 and its 52-week low is $17.40; it closed at $19.13 on Sep 28, 2026, −7.0% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $23.84 on Feb 3, 2025.
Is Ares Capital stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex and seasonality), 2 as mixed (trend and fair value) and 1 as a headwind (earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
See Ares Capital the way Gekko members do
Every GekkoIndex reading, insider trade, options bet and Congress disclosure plotted on the chart, plus the 5,800-name screener and trade planning tools.
Join 1,380 other traders using Gekko
Start Your FREE 7 Day Trial → Every feature unlocked. No credit card required.