Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for NLY in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every NLY insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open NLY in Gekko
Annaly Capital Management (NLY) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Sep 28 close
$20.35−0.26 (−1.3%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryAnnaly Capital Management (NLY) drew attention this week after a session in which the stock closed at $20.60, a -2.09% move that outpaced the broader market's decline. Beyond that single-day move, filings show State Street Corp increased its position in NLY by 4.5% during the second quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
NLY now trades at $20.35, down 1.3% on the day, with its close sitting between the 50-day average of $22.49 and the 200-day average of $22.48, reflecting a mixed trend picture. The GekkoIndex reading of 75.9 places the stock in the Buying zone. Against Gekko Fair Value of $33.33, the current price sits 38.9% below that level.
Looking ahead, Annaly's next earnings report is scheduled for 28 October 2026, before the open, 29 days away and outside a typical 20-trading-day holding window. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the current window. Seasonality data covering five years shows the next 20 trading days from this point in the calendar averaged a -4.3% return, with gains recorded in 3 of those years. The combination of the Buying zone reading and the wide gap to Gekko Fair Value stands alongside a seasonal pattern that has historically skewed negative over a similar stretch, a contrast worth noting as the earnings date approaches.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.
Annaly Capital Management price vs fair value
Close $20.35200-day averageGekko Fair Value $33.33
Annaly Capital Management quick facts
- Market cap
- $15.34B
- P/E ratio
- 5
- Forward P/E
- 6.5
- EPS, TTM
- $4.14
- Revenue, TTM
- $3.25B
- Profit margin
- 90.7%
- Dividend yield
- 13.60%
- Beta
- 1.24
- Volume
- 12.28M avg 9.85M
- 1-year return
- −2.3%
- Typical daily move
- ±2.2%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±4%
- 50-day average
- $22.49
- 200-day average
- $22.48
- Next earnings
- Oct 28 before open
- Shares outstanding
- 753.7M
Annaly Capital Management swing-trade checklist
Annaly Capital Management scores 3 supportive, 2 mixed and 0 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive2 mixed0 headwinds
- Trendmixed
Averages disagree
Close $20.35 sits between the 50-day ($22.49) and 200-day ($22.48) averages, or the averages disagree.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
75.9, Buying
Reading 75.9 is in the Buying zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
38.9% below
Price is 38.9% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 29 days
Next report Oct 28, 2026, 29 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitymixed
−4.3% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −4.3% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Annaly Capital Management stock chart and price history
Annaly Capital Management closed at $20.35 on Sep 28, 2026, −2.3% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $20.00 to $24.52.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −11.8%
- 3 months
- −12.1%
- 6 months
- −2.0%
- 1 year
- −2.3%
The full NLY chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open NLY in Gekko
Follow Annaly Capital Management through every session
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Annaly Capital Management GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Annaly Capital Management’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 75.9, in the Buying zone, down 0.5 points over five sessions.
75.9Buying
Down 0.5 points over five sessions.
Reading for Sep 28, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying (current zone) | 33 | −1.5% | +5.4% | ||
| Accumulation | 167 | +0.6% | +2.6% | ||
| Neutral | 394 | +0.1% | −0.3% | ||
| Distribution | 31 | −0.8% | −1.7% | ||
| Selling | 0 | Not available | |||
Average NLY share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Buying readings averaged +3.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Buying zone: Smart money likely accumulating heavily. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the NLY price, zone by zone.Track NLY in Gekko
Is Annaly Capital Management stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Annaly Capital Management trades 38.9% below Gekko Fair Value of $33.33, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Annaly Capital Management shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$33.33
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026
38.9% Undervalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open NLY in Gekko
Annaly Capital Management insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Annaly Capital Management, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in NLY were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for NLY, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open NLY in Gekko
Buybacks
Annaly Capital Management has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $18K
- As a share of market cap
- 0.00%
From company filings.
Annaly Capital Management earnings: next date and track record
Annaly Capital Management reports on Oct 28, 2026, before the open (29 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Oct 28, 2026
Expected before the open, 29 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.78
- Revenue estimate
- $631.6M
7 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±1.1%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Jul 21, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Annaly reported a strong Q2 2026 driven by a constructive fixed income backdrop and strength across its diversified housing finance platform. The company delivered a 5.5% economic return for the quarter, EAD of $0.79 (exceeding the newly increased $0.75 quarterly dividend), and book value per share rose 1.7% quarter-over-quarter to $20.15. Key drivers included higher agency portfolio yields (WAC +11 bps to 5.11%), tighter mortgage spreads, higher securitization volumes in residential credit, favorable funding costs (average repo rate down 6 bps to 3.4%), and lower rate volatility supporting hedge performance. Management highlighted conservative economic leverage (5.6x), continued capital deployment across agency, residential credit (non-QM and DSCR focus), and MSR strategies, and recent capital raises that supported growth in resi credit and MSR. They emphasized differentiated sourcing and operational advantages in residential credit and MSR, and noted productive GSE participation that has stabilized agency spreads. Macroeconomic risks—rising short-end rates, elevated inflation, geopolitical tension—were acknowledged, but management expressed confidence in earnings durability and dividend coverage. The Q&A reiterated capital allocation priorities (marginal capital likely into agency with incremental additions in residential credit when credit is attractive), the company's manufacturing and sourcing edge, and the MSR niche using subservicer model.
- Guidance
- No formal numerical forward guidance was provided. Management stated they expect to earn the increased quarterly dividend of $0.75 over time and cited line-of-sight returns in the investor supplement (agency ~14% ROE, residential credit ~15%+, MSR ~13% funded through warehouse financing).
- Risks flagged
- Management cited macro and market risks including persistent elevated inflation, potential for Fed tightening (market pricing suggests a hike), rising interest rates (front-end led), geopolitical uncertainty (Middle East energy shock), lower rate volatility that could change, prepayment risk (managed via specified pools/call protection), and uncertainties around GSE policy actions. They also highlighted execution and sourcing challenges in residential credit albeit noting competitive advantages.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | $0.79 est $0.75 | $892.9M est $639.8M | −1.2% |
| Apr 21, 2026 | $0.76 est $0.74 | $1.63B est $595.3M | −0.1% |
| Jan 28, 2026 | $0.74 est $0.73 | $1.06B est $697.2M | −1.5% |
| Oct 22, 2025 | $0.73 est $0.72 | $2.16B est $554.9M | −0.8% |
| Jul 23, 2025 | $0.73 est $0.71 | $1.79B est $493.6M | +0.8% |
| Apr 30, 2025 | $0.72 est $0.70 | $244.5M est $418.5M | −1.0% |
| Jan 29, 2025 | $0.72 est $0.67 | $539.1M est $422.5M | +2.9% |
| Oct 23, 2024 | $0.66 est $0.67 | $133.1M est $1.24B | +0.3% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Annaly Capital Management stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Annaly Capital Management is $24.23, +19.1% from the last close, from 8 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$24.23consensus 12-month target, +19.1% from the last close
Now $20.35Avg $24.23
Low $22.50High $25
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 8 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26 | Bank of America Securities | $22.50 | +10.6% |
| Jul 24 | J.P. Morgan | $24 | +17.9% |
| Jul 23 | KBW | $25 | +22.9% |
| Jul 23 | Wells Fargo | $24 | +17.9% |
| Jul 23 | Barclays | $24 | +17.9% |
+5.4%average 20-day move after past Buying readings
−4.3%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.2%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Annaly Capital Management seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, Annaly Capital Management averaged −4.3% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | −3.6% | 0 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −2.9% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | −3.2% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | −4.3% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +2.3% | 3 of 5 |
For scale, NLY’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 4%.
Annaly Capital Management market cap and key statistics
Annaly Capital Management’s market cap is $15.34B, with a P/E ratio of 5 and revenue of $3.25B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $15.34B
- P/E ratio
- 5
- Forward P/E
- 6.5
- EPS, TTM
- $4.14
- Gekko Fair Value
- $33.33
Trading
- Volume
- 12.28M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 9.85M
- 52-week high
- $24.52
- 52-week low
- $20.00
- Shares outstanding
- 753.7M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $3.25B
- Profit margin
- 90.7%
- Return on equity
- 19.6%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +3,426.0%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 1.24
- Typical daily move
- ±2.2%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±4%
- Dividend yield
- 13.60%
Annaly Capital Management stock news this week
2 headlines about Annaly Capital Management from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.
- Why Annaly Capital Management (NLY) Dipped More Than Broader Market TodayZacks Investment Research, Sep 24
- State Street Corp Purchases 1,272,235 Shares of Annaly Capital Management Inc $NLYDefense World, Sep 24
Annaly Capital Management stock FAQ
What is Annaly Capital Management’s market cap?
Annaly Capital Management’s market cap is $15.34B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $20.35, with 753.7M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 5.
What is the Annaly Capital Management stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Annaly Capital Management is $24.23, +19.1% from the last close. Of the 8 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 6 rate it a buy, 2 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Annaly Capital Management stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Annaly Capital Management is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $20.35 is 38.9% below Gekko Fair Value of $33.33. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Annaly Capital Management report earnings next?
Annaly Capital Management is expected to report on Oct 28, 2026, before the market opens (29 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.78 per share on revenue of $631.6M. Annaly Capital Management beat the earnings estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports, moving 1.1% on average across the report.
What is Annaly Capital Management’s 52-week high and low?
Annaly Capital Management’s 52-week high is $24.52 and its 52-week low is $20.00; it closed at $20.35 on Sep 28, 2026, −2.3% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $35.64 on Sep 28, 2021.
Is Annaly Capital Management stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and earnings risk), 2 as mixed (trend and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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