Medical Properties Trust (MPT) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Oct 12 close

$3.140.00 (0.0%)

Gekko Brief

AI summaryOct 12 close

Medical Properties Trust touches a fresh 52-week low this week, falling to $3.10 even as short interest climbs to 32.76% of the float, equal to 146,186,806 shares and roughly 11.81 days to cover. Alongside the decline, the company's Q2 2026 revenue of $259.28 million exceeded expectations despite a small loss per share, and commentary points to a 0.42 times book value multiple, an oversold RSI reading, and an 11.29% dividend yield. Several executives, including the CEO, had shares withheld on October 7 to cover taxes on vesting restricted stock, transactions explicitly described as not sales.

MPT closes at $3.14, below both its 50-day average of $3.84 and 200-day average of $4.73, with the 50-day itself below the 200-day, reflecting a one-year return of -40.2% and a six-month return of -36.4%. The GekkoIndex reads 68.5, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone. Price sits 28% below Gekko Fair Value of $4.36.

Earnings are scheduled for 29 October, 16 days out and inside a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the last report showed an EPS miss of -$0.01 against a $0.01 estimate, with a -14.5% reaction. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the respective 90-day and 30-day windows. Seasonality over five years shows a -1% average 20-day return from this point, rising in 2 of those years. Analyst views remain split, with 6 firms covering the stock, 2 at buy and 3 at sell, and a consensus target of $5.12.

Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

Medical Properties Trust price vs fair value

$4.36$3.14Oct ’25Apr ’26Oct ’26
Close $3.14200-day averageGekko Fair Value $4.36

Medical Properties Trust quick facts

Market cap
$1.88B
P/E ratio
—
Forward P/E
6.7
EPS, TTM
−$0.05
Revenue, TTM
$1.10B
Profit margin
-2.7%
Dividend yield
10.80%
Beta
1.49
Volume
13.06M avg 12.60M
1-year return
−40.2%
Typical daily move
±3.8%
Typical 20-day move
±9.3%
50-day average
$3.84
200-day average
$4.73
Next earnings
Oct 29 before open
Shares outstanding
597.2M
52-week range
$3.05$6.47

Medical Properties Trust swing-trade checklist

Medical Properties Trust scores 2 supportive, 0 mixed and 3 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

2 supportive0 mixed3 headwinds

  • Trendheadwind

    Below 50 and 200-day

    Close $3.14 is below the 50-day ($3.84) and 200-day ($4.73) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    68.5, Accumulation

    Reading 68.5 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    28.0% below

    Price is 28% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskheadwind

    Reports in 17 days

    Reports on Oct 29, 2026, 17 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalityheadwind

    −1.0% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −1% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Medical Properties Trust stock chart and price history

Medical Properties Trust closed at $3.14 on Oct 12, 2026, −40.2% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $3.05 to $6.47.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Medical Properties Trust share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$4$5$6NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct3.14

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−13.7%
3 months
−31.9%
6 months
−36.4%
1 year
−40.2%
The full MPT chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open MPT in Gekko

Follow Medical Properties Trust through every session

Put MPT on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

Track MPT in GekkoFree for 7 days. No credit card required.

About Medical Properties Trust

Medical Properties Trust owns healthcare real estate, putting money into financing, buying, and building facilities that it then leases out under net-lease arrangements. Its portfolio spans a wide mix of care settings, including rehabilitation centers, long-term acute care hospitals, outpatient surgery centers, hospitals focused on women's and children's health, general community hospitals, and medical office buildings, among other specialized treatment sites.

The trust runs as a self-managed REIT, meaning it handles its own property and investment decisions rather than outsourcing that work to an external manager. Its income comes from the rent and financing arrangements tied to the healthcare operators that use its properties.

Medical Properties Trust traces back to its founding in 2003 by Edward K. Aldag Jr., R. Steven Hamner, Emmett E. McLean, and William Gilliard McKenzie, and it keeps its headquarters in Birmingham, Alabama. Its shares trade under the ticker MPT.

Sector
Finance
Website
medicalpropertiestrust.com

Medical Properties Trust GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Medical Properties Trust’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 68.5, in the Accumulation zone, up 1.5 points over five sessions.

010068.5Accumulation

Up 1.5 points over five sessions.

Reading for Oct 12, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying96+1.1%+1.1%+2.3%+12.8%
Accumulation (current zone)224−0.6%−0.3%0.0%+0.5%
Neutral257+0.5%0.0%−0.1%−3.6%
Distribution52−1.8%0.0%−1.8%−2.2%
Selling6Too few readings yet

Average MPT share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the MPT price, zone by zone.Track MPT in Gekko

Is Medical Properties Trust stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Medical Properties Trust trades 28.0% below Gekko Fair Value of $4.36, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Medical Properties Trust shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$4.36

Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026

28.0% Undervalued

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 18.8% below the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$4$3Aug 2026SepOct 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open MPT in Gekko

Medical Properties Trust insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Medical Properties Trust, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for MPT in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every MPT insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MPT in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in MPT were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for MPT, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MPT in Gekko

Buybacks

Medical Properties Trust has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$6.12M
As a share of market cap
0.33%

From company filings.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Mar 31

1of the funds Gekko tracks holds MPT.

0added0opened1trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

Medical Properties Trust earnings: next date and track record

Medical Properties Trust reports on Oct 29, 2026, before the open (17 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 2 of its last 8 reports.

2 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±8.2%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+7.0%Nov ’24+23.7%Feb ’25−5.1%May ’25−1.7%Jul ’25+6.4%Oct ’25+5.4%Feb ’26−1.6%Apr ’26−14.5%Aug ’26

Last earnings call, Aug 10, 2026 AI summary

What they said
MPT announced a comprehensive refinancing of $2.4 billion in debt maturities extended to 2032, reducing near-term pressure. Post-acute operators showed strongest growth with EBITDARM up over $70 million year-over-year, including 24% growth at Median and 13% at Ernest Health. Behavioral health and UK NHS funding pressures remain headwinds. Swiss joint venture Infracore completed IPO on the SIX exchange. ScionHealth and LifePoint leases were consolidated into a single master lease.
Guidance
Management targets over $1 billion in annualized cash rent by year-end 2026. Debt runway is cleared until late 2028 following the refinancing transaction, enabling a balanced capital allocation strategy going forward.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Aug 10, 2026−$0.01
est $0.01
−241.4%$259.3M
est $247.3M
+4.9%−14.5%
Apr 30, 2026$0.05
est $0.03
+66.7%$252.1M
est $241.6M
+4.3%−1.6%
Feb 19, 2026$0.03
est $0.02
+50.0%$270.3M
est $240.4M
+12.5%+5.4%
Oct 30, 2025−$0.13
est $0.02
−750.0%$237.5M
est $244.0M
−2.7%+6.4%
Jul 31, 2025−$0.16
est $0.02
−900.0%$240.4M
est $244.7M
−1.8%−1.7%
May 1, 2025−$0.20
est −$0.01
−1,900.0%$223.8M
est $240.0M
−6.8%−5.1%
Feb 27, 2025−$0.69
est −$0.06
−1,050.0%$235.3M
est $233.1M
+0.9%+23.7%
Nov 7, 2024−$0.09
est $0.10
−190.0%$225.8M
est $228.8M
−1.3%+7.0%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Medical Properties Trust stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Medical Properties Trust is $5.12, +63.1% from the last close, from 6 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$5.12consensus 12-month target, +63.1% from the last close
Low $3.80High $7
Buy2
Hold1
Sell3

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 6 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 18J.P. MorganSell, maintained——
Sep 17KeyBancHold, reiterated——
Sep 1Wells FargoSell, reiterated$3.80+21.0%
Aug 17Bank of America SecuritiesSell, reiterated$4.25+35.4%
Aug 12Colliers SecuritiesBuy, maintained$5+59.2%
0.0%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
−1.0%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.8%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Medical Properties Trust seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Medical Properties Trust averaged −1.0% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+5.9%2021+9.0%2022−7.3%2023−8.3%2024−1.6%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days−0.6%2 of 5
Next 10 trading days−3.9%1 of 5
Next 15 trading days−0.2%3 of 5
Next 20 trading days−1.0%2 of 5
Next 30 trading days−0.4%3 of 5

For scale, MPT’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 9.3%.

Medical Properties Trust market cap and key statistics

Medical Properties Trust’s market cap is $1.88B and revenue of $1.10B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$1.88B
Forward P/E
6.7
EPS, TTM
−$0.05
Gekko Fair Value
$4.36

Trading

Volume
13.06M
Avg volume, 20 days
12.60M
52-week high
$6.47
52-week low
$3.05
Shares outstanding
597.2M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$1.10B
Profit margin
-2.7%
Return on equity
-0.6%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
0.0%

Risk and income

Beta
1.49
Typical daily move
±3.8%
Typical 20-day move
±9.3%
Dividend yield
10.80%

Medical Properties Trust stock news this week

Coverage of Medical Properties Trust this week reads negative: 1 positive, 5 neutral and 5 negative headlines.

News sentiment negative

More stocks

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

Medical Properties Trust stock FAQ

What is Medical Properties Trust’s market cap?

Medical Properties Trust’s market cap is $1.88B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $3.14, with 597.2M shares outstanding.

What is the Medical Properties Trust stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Medical Properties Trust is $5.12, +63.1% from the last close. Of the 6 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 2 rate it a buy, 1 a hold and 3 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Medical Properties Trust stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Medical Properties Trust is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $3.14 is 28.0% below Gekko Fair Value of $4.36. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Medical Properties Trust report earnings next?

Medical Properties Trust is expected to report on Oct 29, 2026, before the market opens (17 days away). Analysts expect earnings of −$0.01 per share on revenue of $256.9M. Medical Properties Trust beat the earnings estimate in 2 of its last 8 reports, moving 8.2% on average across the report.

What is Medical Properties Trust’s 52-week high and low?

Medical Properties Trust’s 52-week high is $6.47 and its 52-week low is $3.05; it closed at $3.14 on Oct 12, 2026, −40.2% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $24.13 on Jan 14, 2022.

Is Medical Properties Trust stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex and fair value) and 3 as headwinds (trend, earnings risk and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

See Medical Properties Trust the way Gekko members do

Every GekkoIndex reading, insider trade, options bet and Congress disclosure plotted on the chart, plus the 5,800-name screener and trade planning tools.

Join 1,408 other traders using Gekko

Start Your FREE 7 Day Trial → Every feature unlocked. No credit card required.