Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for MP in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every MP insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MP in Gekko
NYSE: MP
MP Materials (MP) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Sep 28 close
$46.45−2.38 (−4.9%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryMP Materials shares fell this week as the broader rare earth group pulled back, with the stock down 21% over the past month amid coverage debating whether the drop represents a buying opportunity. Separately, attention centered on the Magnetics segment, with MP nearing its first commercial shipment of rare earth magnets to General Motors in the fourth quarter, a milestone framed as a shift from raw material production toward higher-value manufacturing and tied to the broader push to build a domestic supply chain as China controls roughly 90% of rare earth magnets.
The stock closed at $46.45, down 4.9%, and sits below both its 50-day average of $50.95 and 200-day average of $56.93, with the 50-day below the 200-day. Over the past month it is down 21.3%, and over the past year down 39.8%. The GekkoIndex reads 66.8, placing it in the Accumulation zone, and the price stands 22.9% below the Gekko Fair Value of $60.23.
Over the next 20 trading days, the next earnings report is set for 5 November, after the close, 37 days away and outside a typical holding window. In the last 90 days, options activity shows 2 unusual signals in the past 30 days, with call premium of $1,989,131 against put premium of $148,282. Seasonally, this point in the calendar has produced an average 20-day return of 4% across 5 years, rising in 4 of them. Analyst consensus among 12 firms stands at 11 buy and 1 hold, with a consensus target of $74.29.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.
MP Materials price vs fair value
Close $46.45200-day averageGekko Fair Value $60.23
MP Materials quick facts
- Market cap
- $8.27B
- P/E ratio
- —
- Forward P/E
- 47.4
- EPS, TTM
- −$0.33
- Revenue, TTM
- $416.2M
- Profit margin
- -14.6%
- Dividend yield
- —
- Beta
- 1.95
- Volume
- 5.26M avg 4.86M
- 1-year return
- −39.8%
- Typical daily move
- ±5%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±11.6%
- 50-day average
- $50.95
- 200-day average
- $56.93
- Next earnings
- Nov 5 after close
- Shares outstanding
- 178.1M
MP Materials swing-trade checklist
MP Materials scores 5 supportive, 0 mixed and 1 headwind across the 6 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
5 supportive0 mixed1 headwind
- Trendheadwind
Below 50 and 200-day
Close $46.45 is below the 50-day ($50.95) and 200-day ($56.93) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
66.8, Accumulation
Reading 66.8 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
22.9% below
Price is 22.9% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneysupportive
Leans bullish
Last 30 days: 2 unusual options signals.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 37 days
Next report Nov 5, 2026, 37 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+4.0% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +4% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
MP Materials stock chart and price history
MP Materials closed at $46.45 on Sep 28, 2026, −39.8% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $37.81 to $100.25.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −21.3%
- 3 months
- −15.1%
- 6 months
- −10.3%
- 1 year
- −39.8%
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About MP Materials
MP Materials mines and processes rare earth elements, the raw materials behind a wide range of high-tech and industrial products. Its central asset is the Mountain Pass Rare Earth mine, a deposit located in the Western Hemisphere, over which the company holds full mineral rights along with surrounding land. It is best known for this mine and for the elements it produces there, including cerium, lanthanum, neodymium, praseodymium, and samarium.
The company's work centers on extracting ore from Mountain Pass and refining it into usable rare earth materials, supported by mineral rights covering the deposit and nearby areas as well as proprietary intellectual property tied to processing and advancing rare earth technology.
MP Materials was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada. Its shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker MP.
- Listed
- NYSE
- Sector
- Non-energy minerals
- Industry
- Other metals/Minerals
- Website
- mpmaterials.com
MP Materials GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
MP Materials’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 66.8, in the Accumulation zone, up 0.7 points over five sessions.
66.8Accumulation
Up 0.7 points over five sessions.
Reading for Sep 28, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 45 | +2.6% | +18.2% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 203 | +1.2% | +8.3% | ||
| Neutral | 376 | +1.5% | +1.8% | ||
| Distribution | 43 | +0.5% | +16.2% | ||
| Selling | 5 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average MP share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the MP price, zone by zone.Track MP in Gekko
Is MP Materials stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
MP Materials trades 22.9% below Gekko Fair Value of $60.23, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what MP Materials shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$60.23
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026
22.9% Undervalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open MP in Gekko
MP Materials insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for MP Materials, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in MP were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for MP, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MP in Gekko
Buybacks
MP Materials has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $612K
- As a share of market cap
- 0.01%
- Trailing four quarters
- $51.00M
From company filings.
Unusual options activity last 30 days
2signals, 93% of the flagged premium in calls.
Latest: Bullish flow on Sep 18, $272K in unusual premium.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Mar 31
1of the funds Gekko tracks holds MP.
0added0opened1trimmed1sold out
Every signal with its contract, strike and premium, and which funds are on each side.Unlock in Gekko
MP Materials earnings: next date and track record
MP Materials reports on Nov 5, 2026, after the close (37 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 5, 2026
Expected after the close, 37 days away
- EPS estimate
- −$0.01
- Revenue estimate
- $117.5M
5 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±5.6%average move across the report
5 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Aug 6, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- MP Materials reported a strong Q2 2026 with substantial growth in Materials segment production and sales. NdPr production was 840 metric tons (up 41% YoY) and NdPr sales exceeded 1,000 metric tons for the second consecutive quarter (up 127% YoY). Consolidated revenue plus PPA income was $126.1 million, more than double year-ago revenue, producing consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $28.5 million (a $41 million YoY improvement) and adjusted diluted EPS improving to a loss of $0.01. Management highlighted operational progress at Mountain Pass (reagent trials, pilot pre-flot process, exploratory drilling), commissioning of a heavy rare earth (Dy/Tb) separation circuit with shipments to begin later this year, restart plans for on-site chlor-alkali, and construction of a recycling facility. The Magnetics segment continued to progress toward commercial magnet shipments, with regular deliveries expected in Q4 and continued ramp into 2027 for nameplate targets. A long-term, multi-year gadolinium oxide offtake agreement with a U.S. aerospace/defense customer was announced (9-figure total over multiple years). Management noted that customer demand continues to outpace production and emphasized NdPr as a binding constraint; they also reiterated strategic flexibility (processing third-party feedstocks and recycling) and a disciplined approach to expanding heavy rare earths where returns justify investment.
- Guidance
- Q3 expectations: realized NdPr oxide pricing expected in the high $90s per kilogram, with PPA income roughly $10/kg. Market pricing was around $110/kg in early Q3, and company expects minimal PPA income contribution from stockpiled NdPr in inventory (slight sequential decline in PPA income). Sales volumes in Materials are expected to be flattish sequentially for Q3, subject to shipment timing and metallization lead times. Company expects benefits from chlor-alkali and other efficiency initiatives to build progressively through 2027. Company reiterated expectation to begin regular magnet production deliveries in Q4 and modest ramp into 2027 toward initial nameplate goals.
- Risks flagged
- Operational risks: scheduled and extended plant shutdowns and maintenance can depress near-term production and increase costs; start-up and transition costs for magnet production can depress near-term margins. Supply-chain risks: talent shortages for specialized roles (engineers, metallurgists, trades), reagent and feedstock sourcing, and export restrictions (China) could affect inputs or markets. Market risks: NdPr remains a binding constraint and controlled scarcity in the market could create allocation challenges; demand timing is lumpy and sales/earnings recognition depends on shipment timing and metallization lead times. Execution risks: scaling projects (Dy/Tb circuit, chlor-alkali restart, recycling facility, 10X construction) may face delays or higher costs. External risks: macro, regulatory, and defense procurement uncertainties could affect demand and pricing.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | −$0.05 est −$0.02 | $108.5M est $96.89M | +6.7% |
| May 7, 2026 | $0.03 est −$0.03 | $90.65M est $74.82M | −7.2% |
| Feb 26, 2026 | $0.09 est $0.06 | $52.69M est $76.06M | +0.4% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | −$0.10 est −$0.17 | $53.55M est $53.24M | +6.7% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | −$0.13 est −$0.20 | $57.39M est $46.14M | +10.1% |
| May 8, 2025 | −$0.12 est −$0.10 | $60.81M est $61.80M | −7.1% |
| Feb 20, 2025 | −$0.12 est −$0.09 | $60.99M est $50.71M | +5.7% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | −$0.12 est −$0.13 | $62.93M est $48.26M | −0.9% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
MP Materials stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for MP Materials is $74.29, +59.9% from the last close, from 12 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$74.29consensus 12-month target, +59.9% from the last close
Now $46.45Avg $74.29
Low $57High $85
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 12 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16 | Freedom Capital Markets | $57 | +22.7% |
| Aug 21 | D.A. Davidson | $82 | +76.5% |
| Aug 19 | Morgan Stanley | $73 | +57.2% |
| Aug 17 | Bank of America Securities | $85 | +83.0% |
| Aug 17 | Barclays | $65 | +39.9% |
+8.3%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+4.0%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±5%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
MP Materials seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 26, MP Materials averaged +4.0% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | −1.6% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +1.5% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +6.1% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +4.0% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +4.3% | 3 of 5 |
For scale, MP’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 11.6%.
MP Materials market cap and key statistics
MP Materials’s market cap is $8.27B and revenue of $416.2M over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $8.27B
- Forward P/E
- 47.4
- EPS, TTM
- −$0.33
- Gekko Fair Value
- $60.23
Trading
- Volume
- 5.26M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 4.86M
- 52-week high
- $100.25
- 52-week low
- $37.81
- Shares outstanding
- 178.1M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $416.2M
- Profit margin
- -14.6%
- Return on equity
- -3.6%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- −55.6%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 1.95
- Typical daily move
- ±5%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±11.6%
MP Materials stock news this week
Coverage of MP Materials this week reads neutral: 4 positive, 5 neutral and 0 negative headlines.
- MP Materials Just Sank 21% in a Month. Is It Time to Sell, or Is This a Prime Buying Opportunity?24/7 Wall Street, Sep 28
- MP Materials Ships Its First Magnets to GM in Q4. This is What The Milestone Is Worth.The Motley Fool, Sep 26
- MP Materials' Magnetics Segment: Can It Unlock the Next Growth Phase?Zacks Investment Research, Sep 25
- Should Magnet Shipments Require Action From MP Materials Stock Investors?Simply Wall Street, Sep 25
- China’s Rare Earth Squeeze Is Making MP Materials More ImportantInvestor Place, Sep 25
- Critical Metals Jumps 9% While the Rare Earth Group Stalls; MP Materials Ticks Up, USA Rare Earth EasesYahoo Finance, Sep 24
MP Materials peers
MP Materials’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| SCCOSouthern Copper | Neutral | 35.2% above |
| FCXFreeport-McMoRan | Neutral | 11.3% above |
| CCJCameco | Accumulation | 2.5% below |
| TECKTeck Resources | Accumulation | 8.2% above |
| ATIATI | Accumulation | 9.0% below |
| CRSCarpenter Technology | Accumulation | 16.2% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
MP Materials stock FAQ
What is MP Materials’s market cap?
MP Materials’s market cap is $8.27B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $46.45, with 178.1M shares outstanding.
What is the MP Materials stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for MP Materials is $74.29, +59.9% from the last close. Of the 12 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 11 rate it a buy, 1 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is MP Materials stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate MP Materials is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $46.45 is 22.9% below Gekko Fair Value of $60.23. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does MP Materials report earnings next?
MP Materials is expected to report on Nov 5, 2026, after the market closes (37 days away). Analysts expect earnings of −$0.01 per share on revenue of $117.5M. MP Materials beat the earnings estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports, moving 5.6% on average across the report.
What is MP Materials’s 52-week high and low?
MP Materials’s 52-week high is $100.25 and its 52-week low is $37.81; it closed at $46.45 on Sep 28, 2026, −39.8% over the past year.
Is MP Materials stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 5 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value, smart money, earnings risk and seasonality) and 1 as a headwind (trend). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
Is there unusual options activity in MP Materials?
Gekko flagged 2 unusual options signals in MP Materials over the last 30 days, with $1.99M of flagged premium in calls and $148K in puts. The latest, bullish flow, was on Sep 18, 2026 with $272K in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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