Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for ERO in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every ERO insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open ERO in Gekko
NYSE: ERO
Ero Copper (ERO) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$37.53−0.08 (−0.2%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryOct 12 closeThis week brings continued attention to Ero Copper's volatility and momentum. Shares jumped 6.50% on 2 October following positive operating results that highlighted continued copper production and a stronger contribution from gold operations, while a separate piece on trading systems describes weak near-term sentiment alongside strong mid and long-term outlooks for the stock.
Ero Copper trades at $37.53, essentially flat on the day, and sits above both its 50-day average of $35.71 and 200-day average of $30.40, with the 50-day above the 200-day. The GekkoIndex reads 56.8, placing it in the Neutral zone, up 3.2 over five days. Price sits just 0.2% below Gekko Fair Value of $37.59, putting the stock within close range of that marker. The stock's one-year return stands at 66.4%, with a three-month return of 45% and a six-month return of 16.8%.
Earnings are due on 2 November, 20 days out, falling inside a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior report on 5 August saw EPS of $0.83 against an estimate of $0.82, with a 7.2% reaction. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the recent windows. Seasonality from this point in the calendar has averaged a 20-day return of -10% over five years, with gains in 2 of those years, a pattern worth noting alongside the upcoming report.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Ero Copper price vs fair value
Close $37.53200-day averageGekko Fair Value $37.59
Ero Copper quick facts
- Market cap
- $3.91B
- P/E ratio
- 12.2
- Forward P/E
- 8.3
- EPS, TTM
- $2.95
- Revenue, TTM
- $1.04B
- Profit margin
- 29.8%
- Dividend yield
- —
- Beta
- 1.63
- Volume
- 682,309 avg 1.21M
- 1-year return
- +66.4%
- Typical daily move
- ±4.7%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±10.5%
- 50-day average
- $35.71
- 200-day average
- $30.40
- Next earnings
- Nov 2
- Shares outstanding
- 104.3M
Ero Copper swing-trade checklist
Ero Copper scores 1 supportive, 2 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
1 supportive2 mixed2 headwinds
- Trendsupportive
Above 50 and 200-day
Close $37.53 is above the 50-day ($35.71) and 200-day ($30.40) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexmixed
56.8, Neutral
Reading 56.8 is in the Neutral zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuemixed
0.2% below
Price is within 5% of Gekko Fair Value (0.2% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 21 days
Reports on Nov 2, 2026, 21 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalityheadwind
−10.0% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −10% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Ero Copper stock chart and price history
Ero Copper closed at $37.53 on Oct 12, 2026, +66.4% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $19.09 to $40.83.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- +5.8%
- 3 months
- +45.0%
- 6 months
- +16.8%
- 1 year
- +66.4%
The full ERO chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open ERO in Gekko
Follow Ero Copper through every session
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About Ero Copper
Ero Copper explores, develops, and runs mining projects across Brazil, with copper as its main focus. Its best-known operation is the MCSA Mining Complex in the Curaçá Valley of Bahia state, where it produces copper concentrate for sale, recovering gold and silver as by-products along the way.
Beyond MCSA, the company wholly owns the Boa Esperança project, a copper development site in Pará state, and the NX Gold property located in Mato Grosso state. Together these holdings span exploration, development, and active production, giving Ero Copper a presence at different stages of the mining process within Brazil.
Ero Copper was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada. Its shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker ERO.
- Listed
- NYSE
- Sector
- Non-energy minerals
- Industry
- Other metals/Minerals
- Website
- ero.com
Ero Copper GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Ero Copper’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 56.8, in the Neutral zone, up 3.2 points over five sessions.
56.8Neutral
Up 3.2 points over five sessions.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 23 | +2.3% | +6.6% | ||
| Accumulation | 227 | +1.6% | +3.9% | ||
| Neutral (current zone) | 369 | +0.6% | +3.0% | ||
| Distribution | 60 | +0.8% | +6.2% | ||
| Selling | 3 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average ERO share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the ERO price, zone by zone.Track ERO in Gekko
Is Ero Copper stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Ero Copper trades 0.2% below Gekko Fair Value of $37.59, so the shares are about fair value on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Ero Copper shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$37.59
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026
0.2% below fair value · About fair value
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 3.3% above the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open ERO in Gekko
Ero Copper insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Ero Copper, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in ERO were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for ERO, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open ERO in Gekko
Ero Copper earnings: next date and track record
Ero Copper reports on Nov 2, 2026 (21 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 2, 2026
21 days away
- EPS estimate
- $1.16
- Revenue estimate
- $356.6M
4 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±2.6%average move across the report
5 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Aug 5, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Ero Copper reported strong Q2 2026 results with cash flow from operations up ~50% quarter-on-quarter to ~$138M and adjusted EBITDA of $144M. H1 2026 EBITDA reached $269M versus $146M in H1 2025. Copper operations produced 17,315 tonnes at $2.42/lb C1 cost. The OneEro initiative drove operational improvements across all sites, while net debt leverage improved to 0.8x from a peak of 2.6x, with $60M in revolver repayments in 2026.
- Guidance
- Ero expects Caraiba to achieve a new annual throughput record in 2026. Tucuma's filtration expansion and three new modular filters are expected to increase capacity and support higher throughput in H2. Xavantina's mobile filter press and industrial dryer commissioning should benefit concentrate operations through year-end.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | $0.83 est $0.82 | $284.3M est $277.6M | +7.2% |
| May 4, 2026 | $0.69 est $0.56 | $263.2M est $245.5M | +2.4% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | $0.27 est $0.36 | $177.1M est $446.6M | +0.2% |
| Jul 31, 2025 | $0.46 est $0.33 | $163.5M est $309.3M | +3.3% |
| Mar 6, 2025 | $0.17 est $0.21 | $122.5M est $183.3M | −0.6% |
| Nov 5, 2024 | $0.39 est $0.25 | $124.8M est $257.1M | −4.0% |
| Aug 1, 2024 | −$0.52 est $0.16 | $117.1M est $117.6M | −2.5% |
| May 7, 2024 | −$0.07 est $0.29 | $105.8M est $109.6M | +0.8% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Ero Copper stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Ero Copper is $40.73, +8.5% from the last close.
$40.73consensus 12-month target, +8.5% from the last close
+3.0%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
−10.0%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±4.7%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Ero Copper seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Ero Copper averaged −10.0% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +0.6% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −4.0% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | −5.9% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | −10.0% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | −10.4% | 1 of 5 |
For scale, ERO’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 10.5%.
Ero Copper market cap and key statistics
Ero Copper’s market cap is $3.91B, with a P/E ratio of 12.2 and revenue of $1.04B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $3.91B
- P/E ratio
- 12.2
- Forward P/E
- 8.3
- EPS, TTM
- $2.95
- Gekko Fair Value
- $37.59
Trading
- Volume
- 682,309
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 1.21M
- 52-week high
- $40.83
- 52-week low
- $19.09
- Shares outstanding
- 104.3M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $1.04B
- Profit margin
- 29.8%
- Return on equity
- 30.8%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +25.0%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 1.63
- Typical daily move
- ±4.7%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±10.5%
Ero Copper stock news this week
2 headlines about Ero Copper from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.
- Trading Systems Reacting to (ERO) VolatilityStock Traders Daily, Oct 11
- Ero Copper Corp. (TSX:ERO) Jumps 6.50% as Positive Momentum Buildskalkine.ca, Oct 5
Ero Copper peers
Ero Copper’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| SCCOSouthern Copper | Neutral | 36.1% above |
| FCXFreeport-McMoRan | Neutral | 9.1% above |
| CCJCameco | Accumulation | 3.4% below |
| TECKTeck Resources | Neutral | 8.8% above |
| ATIATI | Accumulation | 4.6% below |
| CRSCarpenter Technology | Accumulation | 15.4% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Ero Copper stock FAQ
What is Ero Copper’s market cap?
Ero Copper’s market cap is $3.91B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $37.53, with 104.3M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 12.2.
What is the Ero Copper stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Ero Copper is $40.73, +8.5% from the last close. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Ero Copper stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Ero Copper is about fair value: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $37.53 is 0.2% below Gekko Fair Value of $37.59. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Ero Copper report earnings next?
Ero Copper is expected to report on Nov 2, 2026 (21 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.16 per share on revenue of $356.6M. Ero Copper beat the earnings estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports, moving 2.6% on average across the report.
What is Ero Copper’s 52-week high and low?
Ero Copper’s 52-week high is $40.83 and its 52-week low is $19.09; it closed at $37.53 on Oct 12, 2026, +66.4% over the past year.
Is Ero Copper stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 1 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (trend), 2 as mixed (gekkoindex and fair value) and 2 as headwinds (earnings risk and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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