NASDAQ: AUGO

Aura Minerals (AUGO) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$77.72−5.85 (−7.0%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

Aura Minerals shares fell 7.0% to $77.72 this week, with commentary flagging the stock as still overvalued even after the decline. Insider activity continued around the same period, as a director linked to Kapitalo Investimentos converted Brazilian Depositary Receipts into common shares in a series of transactions, alongside other Form 4 filings. The company also presented at Mining Forum Americas 2026, adding to the flow of company-specific news during the week.

At $77.72, AUGO trades above both its 50-day average of $76.27 and its 200-day average of $72.08, with the 50-day above the 200-day. The GekkoIndex reads 60.9, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone. Price sits 9.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $86.20. Over the past month the stock is down 12.8%, though it remains up 22.1% over three months and 136.3% over the past year.

The next earnings date falls on 5 November, 37 days out, placing it beyond a typical 20-trading-day window. In the last 90 days there have been 7 open-market insider purchases totaling $22.9 million. Analyst coverage from 4 firms shows 3 buy ratings and 1 hold, with a consensus target of $101.91, implying 31.1% upside from current levels. Options activity and Congressional trading are not reflected in current figures, leaving insider buying and the proximity to fair value as the notable data points for the coming weeks.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

Aura Minerals price vs fair value

$86.20$77.72Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $77.72200-day averageGekko Fair Value $86.20

Aura Minerals quick facts

Market cap
$6.51B
P/E ratio
23.9
Forward P/E
8.9
EPS, TTM
$3.47
Revenue, TTM
$1.29B
Profit margin
23.2%
Dividend yield
1.34%
Beta
0.36
Volume
1.16M avg 1.11M
1-year return
+136.3%
Typical daily move
±6.1%
Typical 20-day move
±18.6%
50-day average
$76.27
200-day average
$72.08
Next earnings
Nov 5
Shares outstanding
83.84M
52-week range
$29.11$110.32

Aura Minerals swing-trade checklist

Aura Minerals scores 5 supportive, 0 mixed and 0 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

5 supportive0 mixed0 headwinds

  • Trendsupportive

    Above 50 and 200-day

    Close $77.72 is above the 50-day ($76.27) and 200-day ($72.08) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    60.9, Accumulation

    Reading 60.9 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    9.8% below

    Price is 9.8% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneysupportive

    Leans bullish

    Last 90 days: 7 open-market insider purchases.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 37 days

    Next report Nov 5, 2026, 37 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalityno data

    No data

    Not enough years of history for a seasonal read.

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Aura Minerals stock chart and price history

Aura Minerals closed at $77.72 on Sep 28, 2026, +136.3% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $29.11 to $110.32.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Aura Minerals share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$40$60$100NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep77.72

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−12.8%
3 months
+22.1%
6 months
+10.9%
1 year
+136.3%
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About Aura Minerals

Aura Minerals produces gold and copper, running mining projects across the Americas that also target silver deposits during exploration. The company is perhaps best recognized for the spread of mines and development projects it oversees rather than a single flagship operation.

Its work is organized into distinct segments, covering the Minosa, Apoena, and Aranzazu mines as well as the Almas and Borborema projects, with a corporate division tying the operations together. This structure reflects a business built around managing several mining ventures at different stages, from active production to project development, rather than a single centralized site.

The company traces its history back to 1946, when it operated as Aura Gold Inc., before adopting the Aura Minerals name in July 2007. Its main office is located in Coconut Grove, Florida, and its shares are listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker AUGO.

Listed
NASDAQ
Sector
Non-energy minerals
Industry
Other metals/Minerals
Website
auraminerals.com

Aura Minerals GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Aura Minerals’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 60.9, in the Accumulation zone, up 11.3 points over five sessions.

010060.9Accumulation

Up 11.3 points over five sessions, from the Neutral zone.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying9Too few readings yet
Accumulation (current zone)87+1.2%+5.2%+11.1%+22.8%
Neutral155+4.1%+7.1%+12.3%+28.6%
Distribution46+0.2%+0.9%+9.8%+27.6%
Selling0Not available

Average AUGO share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the AUGO price, zone by zone.Track AUGO in Gekko

Is Aura Minerals stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Aura Minerals trades 9.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $86.20, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Aura Minerals shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$86.20

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026

9.8% Undervalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open AUGO in Gekko

Aura Minerals insider and Congress trading

Insiders filed 7 open-market purchases in Aura Minerals worth $22.93M, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

$22.93Min 7 open-market purchases

FiledInsiderTypeSharesValue
Sep 2Sousa Mauad Bruno
director
Purchase1,500$143K
Sep 2Sousa Mauad Bruno
director
Purchase1,500$128K
Sep 1Sousa Mauad Bruno
director
Purchase126,000$11.26M
Sep 1Sousa Mauad Bruno
director
Purchase61,552$5.14M
Sep 1Sousa Mauad Bruno
director
Purchase38,430$3.24M

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in AUGO were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for AUGO, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open AUGO in Gekko

Buybacks

Aura Minerals has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$2.32M
As a share of market cap
0.04%
Trailing four quarters
$7.82M

From company filings.

Aura Minerals earnings: next date and track record

Aura Minerals reports on Nov 5, 2026 (37 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 0 of its last 8 reports.

0 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±4.1%average move across the report
4 of 5reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+3.4%Aug ’25+2.7%Nov ’25−0.3%Feb ’26+0.5%May ’26+13.6%Aug ’26

Last earnings call, Aug 5, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Aura Minerals held its Q2 2026 earnings call focusing on operational updates, financial results, capital allocation, and the MSG turnaround. Management acknowledged weaker Q2 production due to mine sequencing and turnaround activities (notably at MSG) but emphasized that groundwork is in place for a stronger H2 (Q3/Q4) and for 2027. Financial highlights included Q2 net revenues of $336 million and adjusted EBITDA of $197 million; 12-month LTM revenues near $1.3 billion and EBITDA around $800 million (12 consecutive quarters of rising LTM EBITDA). Net income was $218 million (including noncash unrealized gains on gold derivatives); adjusted net income was $97 million. Cash was ~$250 million and net debt ~$168 million (leverage ~0.2x). Management reiterated production guidance for the second half and full year, discussed a $200 million share buyback program combined with an ongoing dividend policy, and confirmed continued M&A appetite. Technical management (COO) outlined MSG bottlenecks (underground development, reliance on low-grade stockpiles) and provided expected improvements in throughput and grade for H2, while the CFO described cost-mitigation programs and strategic sourcing initiatives. Risks discussed include gold price volatility, cost inflation, operational risk at MSG, licensing uncertainty in Colombia (Tolda Fria), and potential El Niño rainfall impacts on Honduras operations.
Guidance
Second half production guidance: 182,000–232,000 ounces (implied). Full-year production projection reiterated at roughly 340,000–390,000 ounces. MSG targeted long-term steady-state production ~80,000 oz and AISC around $2,000–$2,200/oz. Company announced share buyback program up to $200 million and intends to balance buybacks with dividends. No formal 2027 guidance provided; 2027 budgeting process just starting.
Risks flagged
Gold-price volatility and macro uncertainty; operational execution risk and short-term production weakness at MSG due to turnaround and underground development; cost inflation (diesel, reagents, FX exposure in Brazil and Mexico); licensing and permitting uncertainty (e.g., Tolda Fria in Colombia); potential climate/weather impacts such as El Niño affecting Honduras open-pit operations; M&A execution/timing risk in volatile market conditions.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Aug 5, 2026$1.15
est $1.28
−10.2%$336.0M
est $335.5M
+0.1%+13.6%
May 6, 2026$1.29
est $2.18
−40.8%$382.6M
est $377.6M
+1.3%+0.5%
Feb 26, 2026$0.90
est $1.58
−43.1%$321.7M
est $323.0M
−0.4%−0.3%
Nov 4, 2025$0.84
est $0.97
−13.4%$247.8M
est $531.9M
−53.4%+2.7%
Aug 6, 2025$0.39
est $0.96
−59.4%$190.4M
est $189.2M
+0.7%+3.4%
May 5, 2025−$1.00
est $0.36
−377.8%$161.8M
est $153.4M
+5.5%—
Feb 26, 2025$0.23
est $0.41
−43.9%$171.5M
est $165.0M
+3.9%—
Nov 5, 2024−$0.16
est $0.45
−135.6%$156.2M
est $154.1M
+1.3%—

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Aura Minerals stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Aura Minerals is $101.91, +31.1% from the last close, from 4 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$101.91consensus 12-month target, +31.1% from the last close
Low $91High $114.70
Buy3
Hold1
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 4 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 17ScotiabankBuy, initiated$110+41.5%
Aug 31Banco SantanderHold, downgraded$114.70+47.6%
Aug 24Bank of America SecuritiesBuy, reiterated——
Aug 24Bank of America SecuritiesBuy, maintained$99+27.4%
Jul 16J.P. MorganBuy, maintained$91+17.1%
+11.1%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
±6.1%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Aura Minerals market cap and key statistics

Aura Minerals’s market cap is $6.51B, with a P/E ratio of 23.9 and revenue of $1.29B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$6.51B
P/E ratio
23.9
Forward P/E
8.9
EPS, TTM
$3.47
Gekko Fair Value
$86.20

Trading

Volume
1.16M
Avg volume, 20 days
1.11M
52-week high
$110.32
52-week low
$29.11
Shares outstanding
83.84M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$1.29B
Profit margin
23.2%
Return on equity
100.2%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+2,245.0%

Risk and income

Beta
0.36
Typical daily move
±6.1%
Typical 20-day move
±18.6%
Dividend yield
1.34%

Aura Minerals stock news this week

Coverage of Aura Minerals this week reads neutral: 1 positive, 5 neutral and 3 negative headlines.

News sentiment neutral

Aura Minerals peers

Aura Minerals’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
SCCOSouthern Copper+2.9%Neutral35.2% above
FCXFreeport-McMoRan+3.2%Neutral11.3% above
CCJCameco+0.3%Accumulation2.5% below
TECKTeck Resources+1.7%Accumulation8.2% above
ATIATI−1.1%Accumulation9.0% below
CRSCarpenter Technology−1.5%Accumulation16.2% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

Aura Minerals stock FAQ

What is Aura Minerals’s market cap?

Aura Minerals’s market cap is $6.51B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $77.72, with 83.84M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 23.9.

What is the Aura Minerals stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Aura Minerals is $101.91, +31.1% from the last close. Of the 4 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 3 rate it a buy, 1 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Aura Minerals stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Aura Minerals is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $77.72 is 9.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $86.20. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Aura Minerals report earnings next?

Aura Minerals is expected to report on Nov 5, 2026 (37 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.43 per share on revenue of $352.0M. Aura Minerals beat the earnings estimate in 0 of its last 8 reports, moving 4.1% on average across the report.

What is Aura Minerals’s 52-week high and low?

Aura Minerals’s 52-week high is $110.32 and its 52-week low is $29.11; it closed at $77.72 on Sep 28, 2026, +136.3% over the past year.

Is Aura Minerals stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 5 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (trend, gekkoindex, fair value, smart money and earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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