NYSE: JOE

St. Joe (JOE) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Oct 12 close

$65.99+1.13 (+1.7%)

Gekko Brief

AI summaryOct 12 close

This week's news centers on St. Joe's continued development activity in Northwest Florida, with the launch of 35 custom homesites at The Gallery, a new Watersound community in Inlet Beach, opening for competitive bidding starting October 15 and October 17. The company also provided a preliminary update on its Northwest Florida properties following Hurricane Isaias. Coverage also notes the stock trading above its 200-day moving average, alongside references to prior quarterly results showing revenue near $158.83 million and EPS of $0.71, and a Weiss Ratings upgrade to "buy."

JOE closed at $65.99, up 1.7%, sitting between its 50-day average of $66.21 and 200-day average of $65.53, with the stock 11.10% below its 52-week high of $73.54. The GekkoIndex reads 57.6, placing it in the Neutral zone. Price stands 20.9% above Gekko Fair Value of $54.60.

Earnings are scheduled for 28 October 2026, after the close, 16 days away and within a typical 20-trading-day holding period; the prior report saw a -9% reaction. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the respective windows, though one trailblazer holder is noted. Seasonality over the next 20 trading days has averaged 7.2% across 5 years, with gains in 3 of them. The consensus analyst target stands at $19.

Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

St. Joe price vs fair value

$65.99$54.60Oct ’25Apr ’26Oct ’26
Close $65.99200-day averageGekko Fair Value $54.60

St. Joe quick facts

Market cap
$3.76B
P/E ratio
30.6
Forward P/E
50.3
EPS, TTM
$2.13
Revenue, TTM
$547.8M
Profit margin
22.5%
Dividend yield
0.96%
Beta
1.28
Volume
177,292 avg 281,054
1-year return
+39.3%
Typical daily move
±2.2%
Typical 20-day move
±6.3%
50-day average
$66.21
200-day average
$65.53
Next earnings
Oct 28 after close
Shares outstanding
56.93M
52-week range
$46.37$73.54

St. Joe swing-trade checklist

St. Joe scores 1 supportive, 2 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

1 supportive2 mixed2 headwinds

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $65.99 sits between the 50-day ($66.21) and 200-day ($65.53) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexmixed

    57.6, Neutral

    Reading 57.6 is in the Neutral zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valueheadwind

    20.9% above

    Price is 20.9% above Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% above).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskheadwind

    Reports in 16 days

    Reports on Oct 28, 2026, 16 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +7.2% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +7.2% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

St. Joe stock chart and price history

St. Joe closed at $65.99 on Oct 12, 2026, +39.3% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $46.37 to $73.54.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
St. Joe share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$50$55$60$70NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct65.99

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
+0.2%
3 months
+9.0%
6 months
−2.4%
1 year
+39.3%
The full JOE chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open JOE in Gekko

Follow St. Joe through every session

Put JOE on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

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About St. Joe

St. Joe develops land and operates real estate across Northwest Florida, serving homebuilders, direct buyers of residential lots, vacationers, and businesses seeking commercial space. It is perhaps best recognized for the scale of its landholdings in the region, which total around 170,000 acres, and for shaping how much of that land is built out over time.

The company runs its work through three divisions. The residential arm plans and builds communities of varying sizes, selling finished lots and undeveloped tracts to builders or individual buyers. The hospitality arm owns and runs a private club, golf courses, beaches, shops, marinas, hotels, dining venues, and vacation rentals, while also offering management services for some of these properties. The commercial arm leases office, retail, multi-family, and senior living space, develops land for uses such as self-storage and industrial projects, and sells timber products like pulpwood and sawtimber grown on its land.

St. Joe traces back to 1936 and operates out of Panama City Beach, Florida. Its shares trade on the NYSE under the ticker JOE.

Listed
NYSE
Sector
Finance
Industry
Real estate development
Website
joe.com

St. Joe GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

St. Joe’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 57.6, in the Neutral zone, up 1.7 points over five sessions.

010057.6Neutral

Up 1.7 points over five sessions.

Reading for Oct 12, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying38+0.5%+0.1%+1.9%−0.2%
Accumulation230+0.7%+1.9%+3.0%+4.3%
Neutral (current zone)383−0.1%−0.3%−0.6%+1.0%
Distribution30−0.9%−2.0%−1.1%+0.6%
Selling1Too few readings yet

Average JOE share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the JOE price, zone by zone.Track JOE in Gekko

Is St. Joe stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

St. Joe trades 20.9% above Gekko Fair Value of $54.60, so the shares are overvalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what St. Joe shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$54.60

Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026

20.9% Overvalued

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 89.3% above the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$55$65Aug 2026SepOct 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open JOE in Gekko

St. Joe insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for St. Joe, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for JOE in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every JOE insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open JOE in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in JOE were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for JOE, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open JOE in Gekko

Buybacks

St. Joe has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$33.06M
As a share of market cap
0.88%
Trailing four quarters
$62.27M

From company filings.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30

1of the funds Gekko tracks holds JOE.

0added0opened1trimmed0sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

St. Joe earnings: next date and track record

St. Joe reports on Oct 28, 2026, after the close (16 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 0 of its last 1 report.

0 of 1reports beat the EPS estimate
±4.1%average move across the report
5 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+1.8%Jul ’24−7.0%Oct ’24+3.3%Feb ’25+0.9%Apr ’25+2.7%Jul ’25+8.2%Oct ’25−0.3%Feb ’26−9.0%Apr ’26

Last earnings call, Apr 29, 2026 AI summary

What they said
The call was a concise Q&A-focused session with The St. Joe Company's CEO Jorge Gonzalez and CFO Marek Bakun addressing detailed questions about residential lot takedowns, builder relationships (notably a new agreement with PulteGroup for Pigeon Creek), hospitality performance (RevPAR uptick and early signs from a New York City marketing campaign), commercial opportunities (including data center interest at Venture Crossing), brokerage expansion, Pier Park Surf Park monetization progress, marina permitting, and club/amenity capacity and planning. Management emphasized market-driven pace for land takedowns and development, iterative learning from prior large agreements, and prudent balance between supplying inventory and preserving capital for other uses. Several operational updates included plans to open more brokerage locations, progress on Surf Park and marina permitting, positive results at WindMark and clubs, and timing for Pigeon Creek homesite closings (expected 2027). Overall tone was cautiously optimistic with emphasis on execution, measured growth, and risk protections in contracts.
Guidance
Timing guidance: Pigeon Creek initial homesite closings and revenue realization expected in early 2027. No other explicit numeric financial guidance or FY revenue/earnings targets were provided.
Risks flagged
Management repeatedly noted that pace of revenue and development is market-dependent and that takedown schedules can be a "significant variable of revenue" despite built-in protections. They highlighted forward-looking statement caveats, potential permitting steps (e.g., marina), and the need to balance inventory vs. capital deployment. No new material regulatory or macro headwinds were emphasized beyond normal market uncertainty.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Apr 29, 2026$0.00
est $0.00
—$99.04M—−9.0%
Feb 25, 2026$0.52—$128.9M—−0.3%
Oct 29, 2025$0.67—$161.1M—+8.2%
Jul 23, 2025$0.51—$129.1M—+2.7%
Apr 23, 2025$0.30—$94.20M—+0.9%
Feb 26, 2025$0.32—$104.3M—+3.3%
Oct 23, 2024$0.29—$99.01M—−7.0%
Jul 24, 2024$0.42—$111.6M—+1.8%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

St. Joe stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for St. Joe is $19.00, −71.2% from the last close.

$19.00consensus 12-month target, −71.2% from the last close
−0.6%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+7.2%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.2%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

St. Joe seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, St. Joe averaged +7.2% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+16.5%2021+9.3%2022−7.7%2023−8.5%2024+24.8%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+1.5%4 of 5
Next 10 trading days+3.3%3 of 5
Next 15 trading days+3.2%3 of 5
Next 20 trading days+7.2%3 of 5
Next 30 trading days+7.8%3 of 5

For scale, JOE’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 6.3%.

St. Joe market cap and key statistics

St. Joe’s market cap is $3.76B, with a P/E ratio of 30.6 and revenue of $547.8M over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$3.76B
P/E ratio
30.6
Forward P/E
50.3
EPS, TTM
$2.13
Gekko Fair Value
$54.60

Trading

Volume
177,292
Avg volume, 20 days
281,054
52-week high
$73.54
52-week low
$46.37
Shares outstanding
56.93M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$547.8M
Profit margin
22.5%
Return on equity
16.3%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+39.2%

Risk and income

Beta
1.28
Typical daily move
±2.2%
Typical 20-day move
±6.3%
Dividend yield
0.96%

St. Joe peers

St. Joe’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
CBRECBRE−0.2%Accumulation0.4% below
JLLJones Lang LaSalle−0.6%Accumulation22.8% below
FSVFirstService−0.3%Accumulation5.2% below
HHHHoward Hughes−0.5%Neutral13.5% above
MTHMeritage Homes−0.6%Buying33.3% below
HGVHilton Grand Vacations−0.9%Accumulation49.1% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

St. Joe stock FAQ

What is St. Joe’s market cap?

St. Joe’s market cap is $3.76B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $65.99, with 56.93M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 30.6.

What is the St. Joe stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for St. Joe is $19.00, −71.2% from the last close. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is St. Joe stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate St. Joe is overvalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $65.99 is 20.9% above Gekko Fair Value of $54.60. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does St. Joe report earnings next?

St. Joe is expected to report on Oct 28, 2026, after the market closes (16 days away).

What is St. Joe’s 52-week high and low?

St. Joe’s 52-week high is $73.54 and its 52-week low is $46.37; it closed at $65.99 on Oct 12, 2026, +39.3% over the past year.

Is St. Joe stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 1 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (seasonality), 2 as mixed (trend and gekkoindex) and 2 as headwinds (fair value and earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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