NYSE: MTH

Meritage Homes (MTH) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$65.00+0.02 (0.0%)
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Gekko Brief

AI summary

This week's news for Meritage Homes centers on softer demand and valuation debate. Evercore maintained its Hold rating while cutting its price target to $65, and separate coverage noted the stock falling 3.83% to $63.86, more than 25% below its 52-week high, as revenue declined 14.1% year-over-year even though adjusted EPS for the second quarter beat consensus. Other reports flagged a shrinking backlog, down an average annual rate of 27.6% over the previous two years, alongside commentary questioning whether the pullback represents a buying opportunity and noting a view that shares are 21% undervalued.

MTH closed at $65.00, unchanged on the day, sitting below both its 50-day average of $69.55 and 200-day average of $69.84, with the 50-day below the 200-day. Over the past month the stock is down 7.8%, and over three months down 22.9%, though it remains up 8.3% over six months. The GekkoIndex reads 61.2, placing it in the Accumulation zone, down 5.1 points over five days. Price sits 26.1% below Gekko Fair Value of $87.95.

Over the next 20 trading days, the next earnings report is due 28 October 2026, 29 days out and beyond a typical holding window. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the current windows. Seasonally, this stretch of the calendar has averaged a 20-day return of -3.1% over five years, rising in just 1 of those years. Analyst views remain split, with 2 buy and 3 hold ratings among 5 firms, and a consensus target of $81.38.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

Meritage Homes price vs fair value

$87.95$65.00Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $65.00200-day averageGekko Fair Value $87.95

Meritage Homes quick facts

Market cap
$4.34B
P/E ratio
13.4
Forward P/E
12.5
EPS, TTM
$4.80
Revenue, TTM
$5.39B
Profit margin
6.1%
Dividend yield
2.85%
Beta
1.36
Volume
804,578 avg 872,211
1-year return
−9.0%
Typical daily move
±3.1%
Typical 20-day move
±7.5%
50-day average
$69.55
200-day average
$69.84
Next earnings
Oct 28
Shares outstanding
65.17M
52-week range
$58.03$85.38

Meritage Homes swing-trade checklist

Meritage Homes scores 3 supportive, 0 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive0 mixed2 headwinds

  • Trendheadwind

    Below 50 and 200-day

    Close $65.00 is below the 50-day ($69.55) and 200-day ($69.84) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    61.2, Accumulation

    Reading 61.2 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    26.1% below

    Price is 26.1% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 29 days

    Next report Oct 28, 2026, 29 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalityheadwind

    −3.1% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −3.1% over 5 years, rising in 1 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Meritage Homes stock chart and price history

Meritage Homes closed at $65.00 on Sep 28, 2026, −9.0% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $58.03 to $85.38.

5Y and weekly in Gekko
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Meritage Homes share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$60$70$75$80$85NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep65.00

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−7.8%
3 months
−22.9%
6 months
+8.3%
1 year
−9.0%
The full MTH chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open MTH in Gekko

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About Meritage Homes

Meritage Homes builds and sells single-family houses across the United States, working with entry-level buyers and those purchasing their first move-up home. Its work spans the full process, from acquiring and preparing land to constructing, marketing, and selling finished properties. Homes are sold under the company's own brand name in states including Texas, Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee.

The company runs through two main divisions, one covering home construction and the other financial services. Alongside building and selling homes, it offers buyers additional support such as title insurance and assistance with closing and settlement, rounding out the purchasing process for its customers.

Meritage Homes was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona. Its shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker MTH.

Listed
NYSE
Sector
Finance
Industry
Real estate development
Website
meritagehomes.com

Meritage Homes GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Meritage Homes’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 61.2, in the Accumulation zone, down 5.1 points over five sessions.

010061.2Accumulation

Down 5.1 points over five sessions.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying39+0.1%+0.1%+5.5%+2.1%
Accumulation (current zone)286+0.9%+2.3%+2.6%+2.4%
Neutral323−0.8%−1.8%−2.8%−2.5%
Distribution22−1.5%−5.0%−4.1%−5.7%
Selling2Too few readings yet

Average MTH share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the MTH price, zone by zone.Track MTH in Gekko

Is Meritage Homes stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Meritage Homes trades 26.1% below Gekko Fair Value of $87.95, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Meritage Homes shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$87.95

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026

26.1% Undervalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open MTH in Gekko

Meritage Homes insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Meritage Homes, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for MTH in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every MTH insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MTH in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in MTH were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for MTH, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MTH in Gekko

Buybacks

Meritage Homes has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$100.0M
As a share of market cap
2.31%
Trailing four quarters
$435.0M

From company filings.

Meritage Homes earnings: next date and track record

Meritage Homes reports on Oct 28, 2026 (29 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports.

4 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±2.7%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−3.8%Oct ’24+0.2%Jan ’25+1.1%Apr ’25−5.7%Jul ’25−6.1%Oct ’25+0.6%Jan ’26+0.6%Apr ’26−3.3%Jul ’26

Last earnings call, Jul 29, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Meritage Homes reported second quarter 2026 results characterized by softer demand but operational progress. Q2 closings were 3.73k homes generating $1.4 billion of home closing revenue (down ~14% YoY driven by 11% lower closings and a ~4% decline in ASP to $373k). Adjusted home-closing gross margin was 18.6% (vs. 21.4% adjusted prior year) and adjusted diluted EPS was $1.42, excluding ~$3.9 million of inventory impairments and terminated land deal charges. Management highlighted a 200% backlog conversion rate, sub-110 day cycle times (fifth consecutive quarter), a reduction in finished-home inventory of ~1.1k homes YoY, and a 9% YoY increase in active community count to 340. Direct construction costs improved ~6% YoY, helping margins despite higher lot costs and incentive pressure. Management reiterated a full-year community-count growth target of 5%–10% and expects community additions in H2 to support full-year revenue guidance. Strategy commentary included a planned long-term mix shift toward roughly one-third first-move-up (1MU) / two-thirds entry-level by ~2028 and emphasis on disciplined capital allocation, selective M&A, and potential limited land banking over time. Key near-term drivers are mortgage-rate volatility, incentive utilization, and community count cadence.
Guidance
Near-term: Q3 home-closing gross margin commentary around ~18% (management noted Q3 could be slightly above or below depending on rates and leverage). Full-year: reiteration of community-count growth target of 5%–10% year-over-year and management expects community growth in H2 to support full-year revenue guidance. Long-term: gross-margin target of 22.5%–23.5% (under normalized incentive environment).
Risks flagged
Affordability pressures and macroeconomic uncertainty; volatile mortgage and interest rates impacting incentive costs and buyer behavior; higher lot costs and regional land price variability; potential inventory impairments and terminated land deals; lumber and material price volatility; municipal approvals and timing of community openings; sensitivity to incentive wars/competition and consumer psychology.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Jul 29, 2026$1.42
est $1.30		+9.2%$1.40B
est $1.43B		−2.0%−3.3%
Apr 22, 2026$0.86
est $0.98		−12.2%$1.12B
est $1.18B		−5.1%+0.6%
Jan 28, 2026$1.20
est $1.52		−21.1%$1.43B
est $1.51B		−5.5%+0.6%
Oct 28, 2025$1.39
est $1.63		−14.7%$1.42B
est $1.48B		−4.1%−6.1%
Jul 23, 2025$2.04
est $1.99		+2.5%$1.63B
est $1.48B		+10.4%−5.7%
Apr 23, 2025$1.69
est $1.71		−1.2%$1.37B
est $1.33B		+2.5%+1.1%
Jan 29, 2025$4.72
est $2.20		+114.5%$1.62B
est $1.58B		+2.9%+0.2%
Oct 29, 2024$2.67
est $2.49		+7.2%$1.59B
est $1.58B		+0.8%−3.8%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Meritage Homes stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Meritage Homes is $81.38, +25.2% from the last close, from 5 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$81.38consensus 12-month target, +25.2% from the last close
Low $65High $93
Buy2
Hold3
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 5 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 25Evercore ISIHold, maintained$650.0%
Sep 16Truist FinancialHold, downgraded$72+10.8%
Aug 4KBWHold, maintained$75+15.4%
Jul 31UBSBuy, reiterated$88+35.4%
Jul 30Goldman SachsBuy, maintained$93+43.1%
+2.6%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
−3.1%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.1%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Meritage Homes seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 26, Meritage Homes averaged −3.1% across the last 5 years, rising in 1 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+4.8%2021−2.3%2022−8.2%2023−7.6%2024−1.3%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days−0.4%3 of 5
Next 10 trading days−2.6%1 of 5
Next 15 trading days−1.4%2 of 5
Next 20 trading days−3.1%1 of 5
Next 30 trading days+1.7%3 of 5

For scale, MTH’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 7.5%.

Meritage Homes market cap and key statistics

Meritage Homes’s market cap is $4.34B, with a P/E ratio of 13.4 and revenue of $5.39B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$4.34B
P/E ratio
13.4
Forward P/E
12.5
EPS, TTM
$4.80
Gekko Fair Value
$87.95

Trading

Volume
804,578
Avg volume, 20 days
872,211
52-week high
$85.38
52-week low
$58.03
Shares outstanding
65.17M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$5.39B
Profit margin
6.1%
Return on equity
6.4%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
−32.8%

Risk and income

Beta
1.36
Typical daily move
±3.1%
Typical 20-day move
±7.5%
Dividend yield
2.85%

Meritage Homes stock news this week

Coverage of Meritage Homes this week reads negative: 1 positive, 0 neutral and 3 negative headlines.

News sentiment negative

Meritage Homes peers

Meritage Homes’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
CBRECBRE−2.2%Accumulation2.4% below
JLLJones Lang LaSalle−1.8%Buying21.0% below
FSVFirstService+1.3%Accumulation6.4% below
HHHHoward Hughes+8.6%Distribution16.2% above
JOESt. Joe+1.0%Neutral22.0% above
HGVHilton Grand Vacations+1.4%Buying48.9% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

BACHDPEPNVOSCHWMCD

Reporting earnings this week

CCLKMXAIRUECMUJBL

Popular on Gekko

NVDATSLAMSFTAMZNMETAGOOGL

Meritage Homes stock FAQ

What is Meritage Homes’s market cap?

Meritage Homes’s market cap is $4.34B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $65.00, with 65.17M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 13.4.

What is the Meritage Homes stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Meritage Homes is $81.38, +25.2% from the last close. Of the 5 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 2 rate it a buy, 3 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Meritage Homes stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Meritage Homes is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $65.00 is 26.1% below Gekko Fair Value of $87.95. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Meritage Homes report earnings next?

Meritage Homes is expected to report on Oct 28, 2026 (29 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.20 per share on revenue of $1.31B. Meritage Homes beat the earnings estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports, moving 2.7% on average across the report.

What is Meritage Homes’s 52-week high and low?

Meritage Homes’s 52-week high is $85.38 and its 52-week low is $58.03; it closed at $65.00 on Sep 28, 2026, −9.0% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $106.99 on Sep 19, 2024.

Is Meritage Homes stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and earnings risk) and 2 as headwinds (trend and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

Built and overseen by Jared Mann

Founder of Gekko.app. Jared has traded stocks and ETFs for more than 20 years and has a financial industry background.

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