NASDAQ: FSV

FirstService (FSV) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$129.02+0.40 (+0.3%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

FirstService Residential has been selected to manage the Laureate Park Master Association, a 4,500-home community in Orlando's Lake Nona region, covering governance, operations and lifestyle programming, alongside a smaller EV charging participation announcement for three Alexandria communities. Coverage this week also revisits Q2 results, where FSV reported total revenues up 2% year-over-year to $1.45 billion with roofing and closet categories described as soft, alongside a declared quarterly dividend of $0.3050 per share payable 7 October. A short interest update noted a 56.3% decrease in short interest by 15 September, totaling 835,655 shares.

FSV closed at $129.02, down from both its 50-day average of $139.26 and 200-day average of $144.57, with the 50-day below the 200-day. The stock sits 32.5% lower over the past year and 8.6% lower over the past month, near its 52-week low of $119.41. The GekkoIndex reads 65.4, placing FSV in the Accumulation zone, while price stands 6.4% below Gekko Fair Value of $137.90.

FirstService's next earnings date falls on 22 October, 23 days out and within a typical 20-trading-day holding window, following a Q2 EPS of $1.62 against a $1.56 estimate that produced a -2.9% reaction. Over the last 90 days, Congress recorded 1 buy and 0 sales. Seasonality over the next 20 trading days has averaged 0% across 5 years, rising in 3 of them. Consensus analyst target stands at $173.88, implying 34.8% upside from current levels.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

FirstService price vs fair value

$137.90$129.02Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $129.02200-day averageGekko Fair Value $137.90

FirstService quick facts

Market cap
$5.93B
P/E ratio
36.5
Forward P/E
19.5
EPS, TTM
$3.52
Revenue, TTM
$5.60B
Profit margin
2.9%
Dividend yield
0.91%
Beta
0.90
Volume
161,791 avg 213,504
1-year return
−32.5%
Typical daily move
±2.8%
Typical 20-day move
±4%
50-day average
$139.26
200-day average
$144.57
Next earnings
Oct 22
Shares outstanding
43.67M
52-week range
$119.41$192.90

FirstService swing-trade checklist

FirstService scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive1 mixed2 headwinds

  • Trendheadwind

    Below 50 and 200-day

    Close $129.02 is below the 50-day ($139.26) and 200-day ($144.57) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    65.4, Accumulation

    Reading 65.4 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    6.4% below

    Price is 6.4% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneysupportive

    Leans bullish

    Last 90 days: Congress 1 buy / 0 sales.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskheadwind

    Reports in 23 days

    Reports on Oct 22, 2026, 23 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitymixed

    0.0% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged 0% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

FirstService stock chart and price history

FirstService closed at $129.02 on Sep 28, 2026, −32.5% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $119.41 to $192.90.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
FirstService share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$140$160$180$200NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep129.02

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−8.6%
3 months
−9.1%
6 months
−3.9%
1 year
−32.5%
The full FSV chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open FSV in Gekko

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About FirstService

FirstService operates in the United States and Canada, combining oversight of residential communities with a broad set of support services aimed at both homeowners and businesses. It has built recognition for managing private residential communities like condominiums, cooperatives, homeowner associations, planned developments and communities for active adults, while also arranging services such as restoration work, painting, closet installations, flooring, home inspections and fire protection through several well-known brand names.

Its operations are split into two segments. One, FirstService Residential, focuses on running residential communities and layers on extras like on-site maintenance staff, pool and amenity oversight, security and concierge help, plus banking support, insurance brokerage, energy programs, advisory guidance and processing of property resales. The other, FirstService Brands, reaches residential and commercial customers through five franchised networks together with some company-owned outlets, using brands including Paul Davis Restoration, First Onsite Restoration, Century Fire Protection, CertaPro Painters, California Closets, Pillar to Post Home Inspectors and Floor Coverings International.

The company traces back to 1989 and keeps its head office in Toronto, Canada. Its stock trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker FSV.

Listed
NASDAQ
Sector
Finance
Industry
Real estate development
Website
firstservice.com

FirstService GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

FirstService’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 65.4, in the Accumulation zone, up 1.3 points over five sessions.

010065.4Accumulation

Up 1.3 points over five sessions.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying50+0.7%+0.1%+0.5%+3.2%
Accumulation (current zone)211−0.4%−0.6%−1.2%−0.9%
Neutral3820.0%−0.1%−0.2%−1.4%
Distribution26−0.2%+0.3%+1.3%+0.2%
Selling3Too few readings yet

Average FSV share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the FSV price, zone by zone.Track FSV in Gekko

Is FirstService stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

FirstService trades 6.4% below Gekko Fair Value of $137.90, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what FirstService shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$137.90

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 29, 2026

6.4% Undervalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open FSV in Gekko

FirstService insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for FirstService, and members of Congress disclosed 1 purchase and 0 sales, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for FSV in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every FSV insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open FSV in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

1trade disclosed: 1 purchase and 0 sales.

MemberTypeAmountDisclosed
Gilbert Cisneros
House, CA, purchase
Purchase$1,001 - $15,000Sep 11
traded Aug 19

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Buybacks

FirstService has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$242.1M
As a share of market cap
4.08%

From company filings.

FirstService earnings: next date and track record

FirstService reports on Oct 22, 2026 (23 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports.

7 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±5%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+2.8%Oct ’24−5.6%Feb ’25−1.0%Apr ’25+11.7%Jul ’25−10.9%Oct ’25+2.7%Feb ’26−2.1%Apr ’26−2.9%Jul ’26

Last earnings call, Jul 23, 2026 AI summary

What they said
FSV reported Q2 revenues up 2% year-over-year with 1% organic growth, EBITDA up 3% with consolidated margin of 11.2% (up 10bps), and EPS up 2%. FirstService Residential grew 5% organically; Brands segment saw Century Fire strength offset by flat restoration and ~6% reported decline in roofing. Restoration pipeline recovered late Q2, while roofing faces persistent market weakness and competition.
Guidance
Restoration brands expected to deliver ~5% year-over-year growth in H2 2026. Roofing operations anticipated down slightly in Q3 with mid-single digit organic decline. Management expects stronger H2 overall with momentum building into 2027.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Jul 23, 2026$1.62
est $1.56
+3.8%$1.44B
est $1.44B
−0.5%−2.9%
Apr 23, 2026$0.95
est $0.89
+6.7%$1.30B
est $1.29B
+0.7%−2.1%
Feb 4, 2026$1.37
est $1.32
+3.8%$1.38B
est $1.37B
+0.5%+2.7%
Oct 23, 2025$1.76
est $1.75
+0.6%$1.45B
est $1.36B
+6.4%−10.9%
Jul 24, 2025$1.71
est $1.45
+17.9%$1.44B
est $1.47B
−2.2%+11.7%
Apr 24, 2025$0.92
est $0.84
+9.5%$1.25B
est $1.28B
−2.4%−1.0%
Feb 5, 2025$1.34
est $1.38
−2.9%$1.37B
est $1.30B
+5.0%−5.6%
Oct 24, 2024$1.63
est $1.42
+14.8%$1.41B
est $1.30B
+8.1%+2.8%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

FirstService stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for FirstService is $173.88, +34.8% from the last close.

$173.88consensus 12-month target, +34.8% from the last close
−1.2%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
0.0%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.8%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

FirstService seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 26, FirstService averaged 0.0% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+8.5%2021+7.9%2022−5.1%2023+4.6%2024−13.2%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days−1.1%1 of 5
Next 10 trading days+0.3%2 of 5
Next 15 trading days+1.5%3 of 5
Next 20 trading days0.0%3 of 5
Next 30 trading days−1.9%3 of 5

For scale, FSV’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 4%.

FirstService market cap and key statistics

FirstService’s market cap is $5.93B, with a P/E ratio of 36.5 and revenue of $5.60B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$5.93B
P/E ratio
36.5
Forward P/E
19.5
EPS, TTM
$3.52
Gekko Fair Value
$137.90

Trading

Volume
161,791
Avg volume, 20 days
213,504
52-week high
$192.90
52-week low
$119.41
Shares outstanding
43.67M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$5.60B
Profit margin
2.9%
Return on equity
12%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
−1.1%

Risk and income

Beta
0.90
Typical daily move
±2.8%
Typical 20-day move
±4%
Dividend yield
0.91%

FirstService peers

FirstService’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
CBRECBRE−2.2%Accumulation2.4% below
JLLJones Lang LaSalle−1.8%Buying21.0% below
HHHHoward Hughes+8.6%Distribution16.2% above
MTHMeritage Homes+1.1%Accumulation26.1% below
JOESt. Joe+1.0%Neutral22.0% above
HGVHilton Grand Vacations+1.4%Buying48.9% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

FirstService stock FAQ

What is FirstService’s market cap?

FirstService’s market cap is $5.93B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $129.02, with 43.67M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 36.5.

What is the FirstService stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for FirstService is $173.88, +34.8% from the last close. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is FirstService stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate FirstService is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $129.02 is 6.4% below Gekko Fair Value of $137.90. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does FirstService report earnings next?

FirstService is expected to report on Oct 22, 2026 (23 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.90 per share on revenue of $1.49B. FirstService beat the earnings estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports, moving 5% on average across the report.

What is FirstService’s 52-week high and low?

FirstService’s 52-week high is $192.90 and its 52-week low is $119.41; it closed at $129.02 on Sep 28, 2026, −32.5% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $209.66 on Sep 11, 2025.

Is FirstService stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and smart money), 1 as mixed (seasonality) and 2 as headwinds (trend and earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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