Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for CERT in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every CERT insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open CERT in Gekko
NASDAQ: CERT
Certara (CERT) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$9.24+0.11 (+1.2%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryOct 12 closeCertara draws renewed analyst attention this week as its AI-driven turnaround in biosimulation and model-informed drug development gains focus. Barclays raised its price target to $9.00 per share from $7.50 while maintaining an Equal-Weight rating, a move that came despite second-quarter revenue of USD 93.27 million falling short of the USD 98.09 million expectation. Separate commentary points to strong near and mid-term sentiment with a breakout underway, though the long-term outlook is described as weak.
CERT closes at $9.24, up 1.2%, sitting above both its 50-day average of $8.43 and 200-day average of $7.19, with the 50-day above the 200-day. The GekkoIndex reads 53.3, placing it in the Neutral zone. Price stands 19.1% above Gekko Fair Value of $7.76, a gap that bears watching. One-month returns stand at 22.4%, three-month at 38.5%, and six-month at 59.6%, though the one-year return remains negative at -28.6%.
Earnings are scheduled for 5 November 2026, 24 days away, falling inside a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior quarter saw an EPS miss with an actual of $0.09 against an estimate of $0.14, triggering a -19.3% reaction. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the current window. Seasonality from this point has averaged -3.2% over the next 20 trading days across 5 years, rising in 2 of them. Consensus among 8 firms includes 1 buy and 7 hold ratings, with a consensus target of $8.62.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Certara price vs fair value
Close $9.24200-day averageGekko Fair Value $7.76
Certara quick facts
- Market cap
- $1.44B
- P/E ratio
- —
- Forward P/E
- 27.2
- EPS, TTM
- −$0.14
- Revenue, TTM
- $421.7M
- Profit margin
- -16.2%
- Dividend yield
- —
- Beta
- 1.43
- Volume
- 1.51M avg 3.11M
- 1-year return
- −28.6%
- Typical daily move
- ±5.1%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±10.5%
- 50-day average
- $8.43
- 200-day average
- $7.19
- Next earnings
- Nov 5
- Shares outstanding
- 152.5M
Certara swing-trade checklist
Certara scores 1 supportive, 1 mixed and 3 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
1 supportive1 mixed3 headwinds
- Trendsupportive
Above 50 and 200-day
Close $9.24 is above the 50-day ($8.43) and 200-day ($7.19) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexmixed
53.3, Neutral
Reading 53.3 is in the Neutral zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valueheadwind
19.1% above
Price is 19.1% above Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% above).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 24 days
Reports on Nov 5, 2026, 24 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalityheadwind
−3.2% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −3.2% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Certara stock chart and price history
Certara closed at $9.24 on Oct 12, 2026, −28.6% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $4.45 to $13.11.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- +22.4%
- 3 months
- +38.5%
- 6 months
- +59.6%
- 1 year
- −28.6%
The full CERT chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open CERT in Gekko
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About Certara
Certara makes software and provides related services built around biosimulation, a method used to model how drugs behave in the body across the stages of development. Its tools and expertise span early discovery and preclinical work through clinical trials, regulatory filings, and the eventual launch of a medicine. The company is particularly known for applying this simulation-based approach to help speed up how new treatments move toward patients.
The business combines technology-enabled services with software platforms. On the services side, it offers biosimulation modeling, guidance on drug development and regulatory strategy, clinical pharmacology work, meta-analysis, regulatory writing, medical communications, operational support for submissions, and market access advice. Its software covers similar ground, including PK/PD biosimulation, data standardization, scientific informatics, clinical outcomes databases, submission authoring, and market access communication. Certara's customers are mainly biopharmaceutical companies, along with academic and government organizations.
Certara was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Princeton, New Jersey, with operations extending across many countries worldwide. Its shares trade on the NASDAQ under the ticker CERT.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Technology services
- Industry
- Packaged software
- Website
- certara.com
Certara GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Certara’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 53.3, in the Neutral zone, up 12.2 points over five sessions.
53.3Neutral
Up 12.2 points over five sessions, from the Distribution zone.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 71 | +2.9% | +8.0% | ||
| Accumulation | 249 | +0.6% | +1.0% | ||
| Neutral (current zone) | 331 | −1.0% | −3.6% | ||
| Distribution | 30 | −1.3% | −4.3% | ||
| Selling | 1 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average CERT share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the CERT price, zone by zone.Track CERT in Gekko
Is Certara stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Certara trades 19.1% above Gekko Fair Value of $7.76, so the shares are overvalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Certara shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$7.76
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 9, 2026
19.1% Overvalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 21.0% above the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open CERT in Gekko
Certara insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Certara, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in CERT were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for CERT, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open CERT in Gekko
Buybacks
Certara has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $17.39M
- As a share of market cap
- 1.21%
- Trailing four quarters
- $75.00M
From company filings.
Certara earnings: next date and track record
Certara reports on Nov 5, 2026 (24 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 5, 2026
24 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.09
- Revenue estimate
- $92.59M
4 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±12.2%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, May 11, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Certara’s Q1 2026 earnings call emphasized a strategic pivot under new CEO Jon Resnick to accelerate AI-driven, tech-enabled drug development products and stabilize growth across software and services. Financial results were mixed but largely in line with expectations: total revenue of $106.9M (+1% YoY), software revenue of $49.7M (+7%), services revenue of $57.2M (-4%), total bookings $115.3M (-2%) and software bookings up 20% for the quarter. Management highlighted strong software momentum (Simcyp, Phoenix, Chemaxon), improved software bookings and 106% software net retention. They completed a divestiture of regulatory/medical writing business to reduce lumpiness, repurchased $40M of shares, and signaled continued disciplined R&D investment with a portfolio approach aimed at returns beginning in 2027. Key strategic initiatives include reorganization into MID3 (model-informed drug development & discovery) and ACE (data/workflow) business units, partnerships with NVIDIA and Altasciences, and development of a next-generation AI platform to unify products and scale capabilities. Management expects stronger second-half performance driven by backlog conversion and higher deferred revenue, and they plan to provide more concrete AI-platform monetization guidance later in the year.
- Guidance
- No explicit numeric forward guidance was issued. Management provided directional guidance: (1) Expectation of a stronger second half of 2026 driven by backlog conversion and higher deferred (ratable) software revenue, (2) margin improvement through the year as cost reallocations and efficiencies take effect, (3) disciplined R&D investments with revenue impact of current investments expected to begin showing in 2027, and (4) no near-term modeling for the new AI platform — more detail expected toward the end of 2026.
- Risks flagged
- Execution and go-to-market challenges related to ongoing reorganization and change management; near-term churn from restructuring and the divestiture of regulatory/medical writing business; softness in regulatory services demand; competition and potential displacement from large pharma building internal AI solutions or other AI model providers; uncertainty on the timing and commercialization of the AI platform; increased R&D and operating expenses that may pressure near-term margins.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | $0.09 est $0.14 | $106.9M est $106.1M | −19.3% |
| Feb 26, 2026 | $0.09 est $0.11 | $103.6M est $103.1M | +7.4% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | $0.14 est $0.11 | $104.6M est $103.2M | −25.1% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | $0.07 est $0.10 | $104.6M est $104.1M | +14.2% |
| May 5, 2025 | $0.14 est $0.13 | $106.0M est $104.3M | −12.5% |
| Feb 26, 2025 | $0.15 est $0.13 | $100.4M est $99.13M | +0.2% |
| Nov 6, 2024 | $0.13 est $0.11 | $94.82M est $98.26M | +6.6% |
| Aug 6, 2024 | $0.07 est $0.11 | $93.31M est $96.05M | −12.6% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Certara stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Certara is $8.62, −6.7% from the last close, from 8 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$8.62consensus 12-month target, −6.7% from the last close
Now $9.24Avg $8.62
Low $7High $10
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 8 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7 | Barclays | $9 | −2.6% |
| Oct 2 | UBS | $10 | +8.2% |
| Sep 30 | UBS | $10 | +8.2% |
| Sep 17 | Morgan Stanley | $9 | −2.6% |
| Aug 5 | Robert W. Baird | $7 | −24.2% |
−3.6%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
−3.2%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±5.1%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Certara seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Certara averaged −3.2% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +0.7% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | 0.0% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +0.2% | 1 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | −3.2% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | −6.8% | 2 of 5 |
For scale, CERT’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 10.5%.
Certara market cap and key statistics
Certara’s market cap is $1.44B and revenue of $421.7M over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $1.44B
- Forward P/E
- 27.2
- EPS, TTM
- −$0.14
- Gekko Fair Value
- $7.76
Trading
- Volume
- 1.51M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 3.11M
- 52-week high
- $13.11
- 52-week low
- $4.45
- Shares outstanding
- 152.5M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $421.7M
- Profit margin
- -16.2%
- Return on equity
- -2.2%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- −14.1%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 1.43
- Typical daily move
- ±5.1%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±10.5%
Certara stock news this week
Coverage of Certara this week reads positive: 4 positive, 2 neutral and 0 negative headlines.
- Certara Stock Gains Fresh Analyst Backing for AI TurnaroundSimply Wall Street, Oct 11
- Certara, Inc. (CERT) Stock ForecastsYahoo! Finance Canada, Oct 9
- Certara Price Target Raised to $9.00/Share From $7.50 by BarclaysMoomoo, Oct 8
- Barclays raises target for Certara stock from USD 7.50 to USD 9.00AD HOC NEWS, Oct 8
- Certara Is Maintained at Equal-Weight by BarclaysMoomoo, Oct 8
- How Certara Inc. (CERT) Affects Rotational Strategy TimingStock Traders Daily, Oct 6
Certara peers
Certara’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| MSFTMicrosoft | Neutral | 21.7% above |
| PLTRPalantir Technologies | Distribution | 22.3% above |
| ORCLOracle | Neutral | 24.3% below |
| PANWPalo Alto Networks | Neutral | 21.6% above |
| CRWDCrowdStrike | Neutral | 23.7% above |
| CRMSalesforce | Neutral | 3.6% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Certara stock FAQ
What is Certara’s market cap?
Certara’s market cap is $1.44B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $9.24, with 152.5M shares outstanding.
What is the Certara stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Certara is $8.62, −6.7% from the last close. Of the 8 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 1 rate it a buy, 7 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Certara stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Certara is overvalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $9.24 is 19.1% above Gekko Fair Value of $7.76. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Certara report earnings next?
Certara is expected to report on Nov 5, 2026 (24 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.09 per share on revenue of $92.59M. Certara beat the earnings estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports, moving 12.2% on average across the report.
What is Certara’s 52-week high and low?
Certara’s 52-week high is $13.11 and its 52-week low is $4.45; it closed at $9.24 on Oct 12, 2026, −28.6% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $45.48 on Nov 4, 2021.
Is Certara stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 1 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (trend), 1 as mixed (gekkoindex) and 3 as headwinds (fair value, earnings risk and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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