Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for CENX in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every CENX insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open CENX in Gekko
NASDAQ: CENX
Century Aluminum (CENX) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$34.96−1.80 (−4.9%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryOct 12 closeCentury Aluminum shares fell 4.9% to $34.96 this week, extending a decline that has taken the stock down 20.6% over the past month. The move comes alongside mixed analyst signals: UBS's Alex Stansbury maintained a Buy rating with a $55.00 price target, while Argus raised its target to $35.00 with the stock then trading at $36.76. Separate commentary also flagged elevated downside risk alongside positive near-term sentiment, and BlackRock filed an amended ownership report showing a 10.5% stake in the company.
The stock trades below both its 50-day ($42.84) and 200-day ($50.54) moving averages, with the 50-day also under the 200-day, reflecting a broader downtrend that includes a 24.1% three-month decline and a 48.5% six-month decline, against an 11.6% gain over the past year. The GekkoIndex reads 68.9, placing CENX in the Accumulation zone. Price sits 32.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $52.01.
Century Aluminum's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 November 2026 after the close, 24 days away and within a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior report on 6 August 2026 saw a 9.2% reaction, with an average absolute reaction of 10.9% across recent quarters. No insider, Congress or unusual options activity appears in the respective 90-day and 30-day windows. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 9% gain over 5 years, rising in 3 of them. Consensus among 4 analysts stands at Buy, with a $66.50 target implying 90.2% upside.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Century Aluminum price vs fair value
Close $34.96200-day averageGekko Fair Value $52.01
Century Aluminum quick facts
- Market cap
- $3.46B
- P/E ratio
- 6.2
- Forward P/E
- 6.5
- EPS, TTM
- $5.79
- Revenue, TTM
- $2.67B
- Profit margin
- 22.6%
- Dividend yield
- —
- Beta
- 2.08
- Volume
- 1.46M avg 1.76M
- 1-year return
- +11.6%
- Typical daily move
- ±3.7%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±12.2%
- 50-day average
- $42.84
- 200-day average
- $50.54
- Next earnings
- Nov 5 after close
- Shares outstanding
- 98.99M
Century Aluminum swing-trade checklist
Century Aluminum scores 3 supportive, 0 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
3 supportive0 mixed2 headwinds
- Trendheadwind
Below 50 and 200-day
Close $34.96 is below the 50-day ($42.84) and 200-day ($50.54) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
68.9, Accumulation
Reading 68.9 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuesupportive
32.8% below
Price is 32.8% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).
See fair value - Smart moneyno data
No data
No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 24 days
Reports on Nov 5, 2026, 24 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+9.0% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +9% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Century Aluminum stock chart and price history
Century Aluminum closed at $34.96 on Oct 12, 2026, +11.6% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $25.40 to $70.43.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −20.6%
- 3 months
- −24.1%
- 6 months
- −48.5%
- 1 year
- +11.6%
The full CENX chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open CENX in Gekko
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About Century Aluminum
Century Aluminum produces primary aluminum, including both standard grades and value-added specialty products, through operations in the United States and Iceland. The company has built its identity around this primary aluminum manufacturing, serving as a producer of the metal rather than a processor of finished consumer goods.
Beyond its smelting operations, Century Aluminum also runs a plant focused on making carbon anodes, a key input for aluminum production, located in the Netherlands. This combination of primary metal production alongside a supporting raw-material facility reflects how the company organizes its operations across different countries and stages of the aluminum-making process.
Century Aluminum traces its founding back to 1981 and runs its headquarters out of Chicago, Illinois. Its shares trade on the NASDAQ under the ticker CENX.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Non-energy minerals
- Industry
- Aluminum
- Website
- centuryaluminum.com
Century Aluminum GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Century Aluminum’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 68.9, in the Accumulation zone, down 0.5 points over five sessions.
68.9Accumulation
Down 0.5 points over five sessions.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 38 | +3.5% | +6.4% | ||
| Accumulation (current zone) | 169 | +1.9% | +5.3% | ||
| Neutral | 402 | +0.8% | +5.2% | ||
| Distribution | 72 | +1.9% | +5.8% | ||
| Selling | 1 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average CENX share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the CENX price, zone by zone.Track CENX in Gekko
Is Century Aluminum stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Century Aluminum trades 32.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $52.01, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Century Aluminum shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$52.01
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 9, 2026
32.8% Undervalued
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open CENX in Gekko
Century Aluminum insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for Century Aluminum, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in CENX were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for CENX, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open CENX in Gekko
Buybacks
Century Aluminum has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, year ended Dec 31, 2025
- $4.70M
- As a share of market cap
- 0.14%
From company filings.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Dec 31
0of the funds Gekko tracks hold CENX.
0added0opened0trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
Century Aluminum earnings: next date and track record
Century Aluminum reports on Nov 5, 2026, after the close (24 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 2 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 5, 2026
Expected after the close, 24 days away
- EPS estimate
- $2.60
- Revenue estimate
- $945.0M
2 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±10.9%average move across the report
5 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Aug 6, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Century Aluminum reported a strong Q2 2026 characterized by operational milestones, improved financial results, and continued progress on a new Oklahoma smelter project. Operations: Century completed the Mt. Holly expansion (returning the plant to full capacity) and restarted Line 2 at Grundartangi (Iceland), bringing all assets close to or at full capacity. Safety performance and execution of capital projects were emphasized. Financials: Q2 shipments ~131k tons (up 6% QoQ); net sales $752M (up $103M QoQ); net income $249M ($2.39/sh) and adjusted net income $257M ($2.46/sh); adjusted EBITDA $327M (up $96M QoQ). Realized LME and regional premiums increased materially. Cash was $388M at June-end; $66M of debt repaid during Q2; net debt $98M and, by end of July, cash exceeded total debt; liquidity ~$785M. Strategic & project updates: Hawesville sale proceeds and retained 6.8% stake in a data center with a large signed lease; DOE grant for Oklahoma smelter secured (subject to milestones and drawdowns); Bechtel continuing detailed engineering; negotiating final energy contract; financing progressing with expectation of FID and groundbreaking by year-end and first hot metal by end of 2029. Management highlighted an executive order offering tariff/incentive benefits for new U.S. primary aluminum production with material potential upside. Q&A: Management answered questions on the executive order mechanics, DOE grant timing, financing sources, capital return priorities, transformer installation in Iceland, Mt. Holly restart instability (minor, expected resolved in Q3), community engagement in Oklahoma, Jamalco energy self-sufficiency and ~ $20/ton savings, working capital unwind, insurance recoveries, and power contract progress.
- Guidance
- - Expect Final Investment Decision (FID) and groundbreaking for the Oklahoma smelter by the end of this year (2026). - First hot metal from the Oklahoma smelter expected by the end of 2029. - DOE grant of $500 million secured (subject to milestone-driven reimbursements); grant will be released as investments are made and milestones met. - Q3: Management flagged some minor instability from the Mt. Holly restart expected to impact Q3 (but expected to be resolved within Q3), and Jamalco energy savings (reflected in Q3 outlook). No explicit numeric Q3 revenue/earnings guidance provided.
- Risks flagged
- - Local community concerns and pushback around the Oklahoma smelter permitting and social license (ongoing engagement required). - Final energy contract and project financing for the Oklahoma smelter remain to be finalized; these are gating items for FID. - The executive order's final rules (Commerce) are pending and will determine eligibility and exact benefit; estimated benefits are preliminary until rules promulgated. - Restart-related operational instabilities (e.g., at Mt. Holly and transformer repairs in Iceland) can transiently impact production and volumes; insurance and business-interruption issues noted historically in Iceland.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | $2.39 est $2.40 | $752.1M est $817.2M | +9.2% |
| May 7, 2026 | $1.63 est $1.78 | $649.2M est $636.4M | −5.9% |
| Feb 19, 2026 | $0.02 est $1.25 | $633.7M est $651.6M | +4.8% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | $0.15 est $0.79 | $632.2M est $661.6M | +15.4% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | −$0.05 est $0.34 | $628.1M est $646.9M | +7.0% |
| May 7, 2025 | $0.36 est $0.59 | $633.9M est $527.0M | −5.7% |
| Feb 20, 2025 | $0.49 est $0.45 | $630.9M est $515.3M | −16.6% |
| Nov 4, 2024 | $0.63 est $0.27 | $539.1M est $525.4M | +22.2% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Century Aluminum stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Century Aluminum is $66.50, +90.2% from the last close, from 4 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$66.50consensus 12-month target, +90.2% from the last close
Now $34.96Avg $66.50
Low $55High $79
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 4 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8 | UBS | $55 | +57.3% |
| Sep 18 | Wells Fargo | $79 | +126.0% |
| Aug 18 | B. Riley Securities | $72 | +105.9% |
| Aug 11 | UBS | $60 | +71.6% |
| Aug 7 | BMO Capital | $65 | +85.9% |
+5.3%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+9.0%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.7%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Century Aluminum seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Century Aluminum averaged +9.0% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +5.4% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | −0.2% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +0.7% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +9.0% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +14.6% | 3 of 5 |
For scale, CENX’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 12.2%.
Century Aluminum market cap and key statistics
Century Aluminum’s market cap is $3.46B, with a P/E ratio of 6.2 and revenue of $2.67B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $3.46B
- P/E ratio
- 6.2
- Forward P/E
- 6.5
- EPS, TTM
- $5.79
- Gekko Fair Value
- $52.01
Trading
- Volume
- 1.46M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 1.76M
- 52-week high
- $70.43
- 52-week low
- $25.40
- Shares outstanding
- 98.99M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $2.67B
- Profit margin
- 22.6%
- Return on equity
- 51.7%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +1,010.0%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 2.08
- Typical daily move
- ±3.7%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±12.2%
Century Aluminum stock news this week
Coverage of Century Aluminum this week reads positive: 3 positive, 2 neutral and 0 negative headlines.
- Century Aluminum Co (CENX) Shares Fall 4.9% -- What GF Score of 68 Tells InvestorsGuruFocus, Oct 12
- Contrasting Avino Silver & Gold Mines (NYSE:ASM) and Century Aluminum (NASDAQ:CENX)Defense World, Oct 12
- Analysts Offer Insights on Materials Companies: Century Aluminum (CENX) and Agnico Eagle (AEM)The Globe and Mail, Oct 10
- Century Aluminum Company (CENX) Stock ForecastsYahoo! Finance Canada, Oct 9
- How Century Aluminum Company (CENX) Affects Rotational Strategy TimingStock Traders Daily, Oct 9
- Contrasting Aris Mining (NYSE:ARIS) & Century Aluminum (NASDAQ:CENX)Defense World, Oct 6
Century Aluminum peers
Century Aluminum’s 4 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| AAAlcoa | Accumulation | 5.3% below |
| CSTMConstellium | Neutral | 20.1% below |
| KALUKaiser Aluminum | Accumulation | 8.1% below |
| TGTredegar | Neutral | 31.8% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Century Aluminum stock FAQ
What is Century Aluminum’s market cap?
Century Aluminum’s market cap is $3.46B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $34.96, with 98.99M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 6.2.
What is the Century Aluminum stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Century Aluminum is $66.50, +90.2% from the last close. Of the 4 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 4 rate it a buy, 0 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Century Aluminum stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Century Aluminum is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $34.96 is 32.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $52.01. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Century Aluminum report earnings next?
Century Aluminum is expected to report on Nov 5, 2026, after the market closes (24 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $2.60 per share on revenue of $945.0M. Century Aluminum beat the earnings estimate in 2 of its last 8 reports, moving 10.9% on average across the report.
What is Century Aluminum’s 52-week high and low?
Century Aluminum’s 52-week high is $70.43 and its 52-week low is $25.40; it closed at $34.96 on Oct 12, 2026, +11.6% over the past year.
Is Century Aluminum stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and seasonality) and 2 as headwinds (trend and earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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