Arcelor Mittal (MT) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Nov 4 close

$62.49+2.07 (+3.4%)

Gekko Brief

AI summaryNov 4 close

Arcelor Mittal's week is dominated by carbon capture and expansion news alongside analyst-consensus publications ahead of earnings. The company, working with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, BHP Group, and Mitsubishi Development, achieved over 90% CO2 capture from blast furnace gas in a pilot trial at its Gent, Belgium facility. Separately, the company is advancing its Liberia iron ore operations, with total investment nearing $4 billion for the country's first concentrator along with rail and port upgrades. Ahead of Q3 2026 results, sell-side consensus aggregated from 12 brokers points to EBITDA of $1.972 billion, adjusted net income of $652 million, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.84.

MT closed at $62.49, up 3.4% on the day, sitting between its 50-day average of $67.89 and 200-day average of $63.89, with three-month returns at -14.7% and one-year returns at 63.7%. The GekkoIndex reads 62.2, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone, down 5.9 over five days. Price sits 6.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $66.91.

Earnings arrive 5 November 2026, zero days away, falling inside a typical 20-trading-day hold; the prior report on 30 July 2026 showed EPS of $0.89 against an estimate of $1.18, with a 6.8% reaction, and 3 beats in the last 8 quarters. Seasonality for this point in the calendar shows a 5% average 20-day return over 5 years, with gains in 4 of them. Analyst consensus across 6 firms carries a $77.80 price target. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the respective 90-day and 30-day windows.

Written by AI from the Nov 4, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

Arcelor Mittal price vs fair value

$66.91$62.49Nov ’25May ’26Nov ’26
Close $62.49200-day averageGekko Fair Value $66.91

Arcelor Mittal quick facts

Market cap
$47.12B
P/E ratio
25.8
Forward P/E
9.8
EPS, TTM
$2.37
Revenue, TTM
$62.85B
Profit margin
2.9%
Dividend yield
1.00%
Beta
1.70
Volume
1.99M avg 1.29M
1-year return
+63.7%
Typical daily move
±3.2%
Typical 20-day move
±7.1%
50-day average
$67.89
200-day average
$63.89
Next earnings
Nov 5
Shares outstanding
751.9M
52-week range
$36.70$79.68

Arcelor Mittal swing-trade checklist

Arcelor Mittal scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive1 mixed1 headwind

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $62.49 sits between the 50-day ($67.89) and 200-day ($63.89) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    62.2, Accumulation

    Reading 62.2 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    6.6% below

    Price is 6.6% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskheadwind

    Reports today

    Reports on Nov 5, 2026, today — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +5.0% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +5% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Arcelor Mittal stock chart and price history

Arcelor Mittal closed at $62.49 on Nov 4, 2026, +63.7% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $36.70 to $79.68.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Arcelor Mittal share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$30$40$50$70$80DecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct62.49

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−4.1%
3 months
−14.7%
6 months
−1.0%
1 year
+63.7%
The full MT chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open MT in Gekko

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About Arcelor Mittal

Arcelor Mittal makes steel and runs the mining operations that feed it, working across sites in Europe, the Americas, Asia and Africa. The steel side stretches from flat items like slabs, plates, and rolled or galvanized coils and sheets to long items such as bars, wire-rods, structural beams, rails and sheet piles, plus pipes and tubes in seamless and welded forms.

Its mining arm pulls iron ore out of the ground in several shapes, including lumps, fines, concentrates, pellets and sinter feed, and also handles coking coal, thermal coal and coal meant for pulverized injection. The iron ore comes from mines in Brazil, Bosnia, Canada, Kazakhstan, Liberia, Mexico, South Africa and Ukraine, while coal mining takes place only in Kazakhstan. Buyers of these materials include firms in autos, appliances, engineering, construction, energy and heavy equipment, served through the company's own marketing unit together with outside distributors.

Founded in 1976, Arcelor Mittal keeps its head office in Luxembourg City, Luxembourg, and its stock trades under the ticker MT.

Sector
Non-energy minerals
Website
corporate.arcelormittal.com

Arcelor Mittal GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Arcelor Mittal’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 62.2, in the Accumulation zone, down 5.9 points over five sessions.

010062.2Accumulation

Down 5.9 points over five sessions.

Reading for Nov 4, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying23+2.3%+4.0%+10.1%+20.0%
Accumulation (current zone)166+0.2%+1.8%+4.4%+11.3%
Neutral408+1.1%+1.3%+2.7%+8.2%
Distribution53−0.6%+1.5%+1.7%+8.1%
Selling0Not available

Average MT share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.0% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the MT price, zone by zone.Track MT in Gekko

Is Arcelor Mittal stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Arcelor Mittal trades 6.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $66.91, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Arcelor Mittal shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$66.91

Gekko Fair Value, Nov 4, 2026

6.6% Undervalued

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 13.0% above the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$67$60Aug 2026SepOctNov 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open MT in Gekko

Arcelor Mittal insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Arcelor Mittal, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for MT in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every MT insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MT in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in MT were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for MT, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MT in Gekko

Buybacks

Arcelor Mittal has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$483.5M
As a share of market cap
1.03%

From company filings.

Arcelor Mittal earnings: next date and track record

Arcelor Mittal reports on Nov 5, 2026 (today), and beat the EPS estimate in 3 of its last 8 reports.

3 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±5.1%average move across the report
6 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+2.6%Nov ’24+9.3%Feb ’25−1.6%Apr ’25−4.7%Jul ’25+4.6%Nov ’25+9.5%Feb ’26+1.7%Apr ’26+6.8%Jul ’26

Last earnings call, Jul 30, 2026 AI summary

What they said
ArcelorMittal reported Q2 2026 EBITDA of $2.1 billion ($155/ton margin), above through-the-cycle averages. European segment achieved a three-year high of $98/ton EBITDA. Underlying free cash flow annualizes at $2.5 billion in H1. Production restarts announced in Spain, Poland, and France. Strategic growth projects expected to contribute $1.8 billion incremental EBITDA from 2026 onwards.
Guidance
Q3 shipments guided stable to higher than Q2, a counterseasonal outcome. Long-term India capacity target of 40 million tons. Second EAF at Calvert under study; growth projects targeting returns well above cost of capital.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Jul 30, 2026$0.89
est $1.18
−24.6%$16.76B
est $17.30B
−3.1%+6.8%
Apr 30, 2026$0.75
est $1.03
−27.2%$15.46B
est $17.04B
−9.3%+1.7%
Feb 5, 2026$0.86
est $0.62
+39.6%$14.97B
est $16.21B
−7.6%+9.5%
Nov 6, 2025$0.62
est $0.62
0.0%$15.66B
est $15.60B
+0.4%+4.6%
Jul 31, 2025$1.32
est $1.81
−27.1%$15.93B
est $15.88B
+0.3%−4.7%
Apr 30, 2025$1.04
est $0.73
+42.5%$14.80B
est $15.53B
−4.7%−1.6%
Feb 6, 2025$0.52
est $0.73
−28.8%$14.71B
est $15.48B
−4.9%+9.3%
Nov 7, 2024$0.63
est $0.48
+31.3%$15.20B
est $15.25B
−0.4%+2.6%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Arcelor Mittal stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Arcelor Mittal is $77.80, +24.5% from the last close, from 6 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$77.80consensus 12-month target, +24.5% from the last close
Low $63.30High $93
Buy3
Hold3
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 6 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Oct 6Wells FargoHold, reiterated$64+2.4%
Oct 6Goldman SachsHold, maintained$63.30+1.3%
Oct 5Deutsche Bank Buy, reiterated$79+26.4%
Aug 24Morgan StanleyBuy, initiated$82+31.2%
Aug 21Morgan StanleyBuy, initiated$82+31.2%
+4.4%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+5.0%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.2%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Arcelor Mittal seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Nov 4, Arcelor Mittal averaged +5.0% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

−15.8%2021+13.0%2022+7.9%2023+1.7%2024+16.6%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+4.3%3 of 5
Next 10 trading days+3.3%4 of 5
Next 15 trading days+3.3%4 of 5
Next 20 trading days+5.0%4 of 5
Next 30 trading days+9.6%3 of 5

For scale, MT’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 7.1%.

Arcelor Mittal market cap and key statistics

Arcelor Mittal’s market cap is $47.12B, with a P/E ratio of 25.8 and revenue of $62.85B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$47.12B
P/E ratio
25.8
Forward P/E
9.8
EPS, TTM
$2.37
Gekko Fair Value
$66.91

Trading

Volume
1.99M
Avg volume, 20 days
1.29M
52-week high
$79.68
52-week low
$36.70
Shares outstanding
751.9M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$62.85B
Profit margin
2.9%
Return on equity
3.3%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
−61.7%

Risk and income

Beta
1.70
Typical daily move
±3.2%
Typical 20-day move
±7.1%
Dividend yield
1.00%

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Arcelor Mittal stock FAQ

What is Arcelor Mittal’s market cap?

Arcelor Mittal’s market cap is $47.12B at the Nov 4, 2026 close of $62.49, with 751.9M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 25.8.

What is the Arcelor Mittal stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Arcelor Mittal is $77.80, +24.5% from the last close. Of the 6 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 3 rate it a buy, 3 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Arcelor Mittal stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Arcelor Mittal is undervalued: the Nov 4, 2026 close of $62.49 is 6.6% below Gekko Fair Value of $66.91. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Arcelor Mittal report earnings next?

Arcelor Mittal is expected to report on Nov 5, 2026 (today). Analysts expect earnings of $0.80 per share on revenue of $16.93B. Arcelor Mittal beat the earnings estimate in 3 of its last 8 reports, moving 5.1% on average across the report.

What is Arcelor Mittal’s 52-week high and low?

Arcelor Mittal’s 52-week high is $79.68 and its 52-week low is $36.70; it closed at $62.49 on Nov 4, 2026, +63.7% over the past year.

Is Arcelor Mittal stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and seasonality), 1 as mixed (trend) and 1 as a headwind (earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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